以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 财经图解 . 财经大事早知道，关注东方财富股票！ | 乐万财富APP Q 图解财经 国家/地区 | | 最新关税 | 较4月初税率增减 | 年贸易额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 税率 | (百分点) | ( 亿美元 ) | | 欧盟 | | 15% | -5 | 10510 | | 加拿大 | 事 | 35% | 35 | 7449 | | 日本 | ● | 15% | -g | 2174 | | 韩国 | o | 15% | -10 | 1793 | | 英国 | 2 7 | 10% | 0 | 1480 | | 越南 | 1 | 20% | -26 | 1276 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 印度 | | 25% | -1 | 1235 | | 中国台湾 | * | 20% | -12 | 1114 | | 巴西 | | 10% | 0 | 748 | | 泰国 | | 19% | -17 | 730 | | 马来西亚 | | 19% | -5 | 601 | | 印度尼西 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between India and the United States is experiencing significant strain due to issues such as tariffs and oil purchases, with President Trump threatening to impose higher tariffs on Indian products and criticizing India's economic strength [1][2][6] Group 1: Tariffs and Trade Relations - President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on Indian products by 25% if India continues to purchase oil and weapons from Russia, which he claims is detrimental to the U.S. economy [2][4] - India has been importing approximately 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil daily from January to June this year, marking a 1% increase from the previous year [2] - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian officials have stated that the country will continue its oil purchases from Russia, citing long-term contracts [3] Group 2: Diplomatic Responses - India's Ministry of External Affairs has labeled the U.S. actions as "unjust and unreasonable," asserting that India will take necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security [2] - Prime Minister Modi has encouraged Indian citizens to buy domestically produced goods in response to the economic uncertainty and external pressures [4][5] - Modi's statements are seen as a direct response to Trump's derogatory remarks about India's economy, emphasizing the need for India to remain vigilant regarding its economic interests [4][6] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the current state of U.S.-India relations is the worst since the 1990s, indicating a significant shift in the strategic balance that has characterized their relationship for the past two decades [6] - The ongoing tensions may reflect broader geopolitical dynamics, including dissatisfaction with Russia's actions in Ukraine and the complexities of international trade [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 08 月 05 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】对当前及下阶段房地产形势 的研判及建议》2025-08-03 《【粤开宏观】育儿补贴规模每年或可达千 亿"投资于人"信号意义明显》2025-08-01 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的九大信 号》2025-07-30 《【粤开宏观】房地产调整到了什么阶段？ 对经济的影响有多大？》2025-07-28 《【粤开宏观】关税战如何影响中国物价： 表现、展望及应对》2025-07-20 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】特朗普"对等关税 2.0" 有哪些变化？为什么？影响几何？ 当地时间 7 月 31 日，特朗普签署行政令，公布了"对等关税 2.0"方案，以 替代 4 月 2 日公布的"1.0 版本"，并于 8 月 ...

特朗普属实是没招儿了，眼睁睁看着美债飙升，每年的利息都高达上万亿美元，美联储还不降息。 鉴于美联储的独立性，他虽贵为总统却不能指挥美联储主席鲍威尔，只能打打嘴炮给鲍威尔来个激将 法，但无奈鲍威尔并不上钩。 甚至连威胁要"弄死"他，也不为所动，没办法，特朗普只好出狠招——自爆家丑了。 他到底爆了什么家丑？意图是什么？ 36万亿美债还不起 很多人对于美国的印象都还是那个超级大国，GDP抵得上好几个国家的总和，生活水平也高其他国家一 大截，是很多人学习、生活的圣地。 尤其是本世纪初我国还是一穷二白的时候，对于美国等西方国家的崇拜之情最盛，现在一些老一辈的人 都还认为能去美国生活就是最好的。 但随着网络的发展和中国经济快速发展，其实差距已经没有太大了，甚至在一些方面我们还比他们更 好。 拜登即将下台之前各种针对中国，强迫TikTok卖给美国企业时，TikTok不得不暂停服务，引发美国人成 了"抖音难民"，疯狂下载小某书，还来了一场"中美对账"。 中国人民才知道，原来美国人上学费用高达上万美元，毕业后还要还很多年学费贷，每个月的工资也就 两三千美元而已，租房也比我们贵得多，要打好几份工才能维持生活。 1.3万亿美元看起 ...

德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔4日在美国首都华盛顿表示，欧盟此前在与美国的贸易谈判中过 于软弱，应采取更强硬的立场。 克林拜尔当天在与美国财政部长贝森特会谈前表示，欧盟与美国上月达成的贸易协议中，仍有许多内容 需要澄清。"我们必须变得更强硬，"克林拜尔说，"这样才可以更自信地与美国对话。" 克林拜尔还表示，欧盟需要找到能快速解决与美国贸易冲突的办法，因为企业在制订计划时需要确定 性。 作为欧盟最大经济体，德国当前经济高度依赖对美出口。按照美国近日公布的所谓"对等关税"税率，欧 盟大部分对美出口商品将被征收15%关税。欧盟还对美作出承诺，将增加对美投资和能源采购。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

新华财经马塞卢8月5日电 8月的莱索托正值冬季。寒风中，三五成群的纺织工人迷茫地穿梭于首都马塞 卢工业区的制衣工厂，挨家询问是否招工，试图重新找到一份工作养家糊口。美国威胁对所有贸易伙伴 征收所谓"对等关税"，莱索托这个经济贫弱的国家受到严重冲击，特别是支柱产业纺织业。 2021年，非洲出口纺织品工厂曾计划在马塞卢10个区域设立工厂并雇用上万名工人。"4年过去，当初的 愿景没能实现。"科贝利遗憾地说。非洲出口纺织品工厂目前设有一家牛仔布工厂和两家针织厂。科贝 利告诉记者，在4月所谓的"对等关税"政策宣布前，工厂曾接到美国客户的大单，预期收益足够开设两 家新厂，"但现在一切都不可能了"。 31岁的纺织女工马凯莱靠加工牛仔裤维持生计，抚养两个年幼的孩子，可能失业的风险让这位单身母亲 焦虑不已。"我不知道这些牛仔裤会卖到哪里，也不明白美国为什么要这样对我们。我能做的，只是不 停地踩缝纫机。" 50岁的莫莱察内已从事纺织业17年，逐步从女工成长为后场主管。"我已经老了，但年轻人要怎么 办？"她望向记者，眼中透出对纺织的热爱，也写满对年轻工友的担忧。 美国是莱索托第二大贸易伙伴。2024年，两国双边贸易额为2.4亿美元 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff on imported goods in the U.S. has surged from 1.2% last year to 17%, marking the highest level since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1933 [1][3][6] - Tariffs vary significantly by country, with Canada facing a rise from 25% to 35% due to political decisions, and Brazil experiencing a combined tariff of 50% on certain goods [3][4] - The U.S. tariff policy reflects a "America First" approach, imposing high tariffs indiscriminately, even on allied nations, which has led to widespread criticism and concerns about international trade relations [6][10] Group 2 - The tariff increases have resulted in higher costs for U.S. companies, with Ford estimating an additional $800 million in costs and Procter & Gamble planning to raise prices on a quarter of its products [6][8] - The job market has shown weakness, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below expectations, attributed to disruptions in supply chains caused by the tariff war [8][10] - Ordinary American households are expected to face increased expenses, with estimates suggesting an additional $2,400 per year due to rising prices on essential goods [8][10]

Core Points - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has released guidelines on the implementation of new tariffs announced by President Trump, which are expected to affect numerous trade partners [1] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to rise to 15.2%, up from 13.3% previously, and significantly higher than the 2.3% rate before Trump's presidency [1] - The so-called "reciprocal tariffs" are seen as a key part of the government's strategy to reduce trade deficits and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [1] Summary by Category Tariff Implementation - The guidelines specify that the new tariffs will not apply to products shipped to the U.S. before 12:01 AM on July 7 [1] - Certain products, such as those under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and humanitarian aid items like food, clothing, and medicine, will be exempt from the tariffs [1] Economic Impact - Bloomberg Economics indicates that if the new tariffs are implemented as announced, the average tariff rate will increase, impacting consumer and business costs [1] - Critics argue that the tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, potentially exacerbating inflation [1] Future Developments - Other countries, including Switzerland, are attempting to negotiate lower tariffs with the U.S. before the July 7 deadline [1] - Further tariff plans on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, and other industrial products are expected to be announced in the coming weeks, creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses and investors [1]

Core Points - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by President Trump will not apply to goods loaded onto ships before August 7, 2023, at 12:01 AM EST, providing a clear framework for the expected increase in tariffs on numerous trading partners [1] - The new tariff rates include a 10% rate for countries with a trade deficit with the U.S., approximately 15% for those with minor trade surpluses, and higher rates for countries with significant trade surpluses, such as Canada facing a rise from 25% to 35% [1][3] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to increase from 13.3% to 15.2% if the announced rates are fully implemented, a significant rise compared to the 2.3% before Trump's presidency [3] Exemptions and Penalties - Products covered under the USMCA will be exempt from the new tariffs, along with humanitarian aid items like food, clothing, and medicine [2] - The guidelines include punitive measures for goods rerouted through third countries to avoid tariffs, with potential tariffs of up to 40% for such cases [2] Economic Impact - The long-term economic impact of the tariff policy remains uncertain, with critics arguing that these tariffs could increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses, potentially exacerbating inflation [4] - The Trump administration is expected to release an independent tariff list for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other critical industrial products in the coming weeks, indicating ongoing policy risks for businesses and investors [3]

上周，美国政府确定了对多个国家和地区征收"对等关税"的税率。美国一些人试图通过行政手段重塑国 际贸易格局，其深远影响将大大超出始作俑者的预期。极限施压举措虽然短期内榨取了些许利益，却严 重透支了美国的国家信誉。从某种意义上讲，美国的霸凌行径给全球加速"去美国化"进行了一次广泛的 思想动员。 当美国单边行动削弱世贸组织争端解决机制的有效性时，不仅改变贸易流向，更将重塑国际经贸规则体 系。当更多国家采用本币结算、共建区域产业链时，传统以美元和美国市场为核心的贸易体系面临根本 性挑战，长期可能加速多极贸易格局的形成。当世界开始绘制"没有美国"的贸易版图时，华盛顿的霸权 根基已然动摇。 美国在1930年实施的《斯姆特—霍利关税法》曾引发全球贸易大幅萎缩，将世界拖入大萧条。近百年 后，美国政府挑起的关税战已触发相似风险。今年4月下旬，世界贸易组织预计2025年世界商品贸易量 将下降0.2%，比"低关税"基线情景下的预期低近3个百分点，"如情况恶化，全球贸易量可能会进一步萎 缩"。 加征关税举措破坏了现行多边贸易体系的非歧视原则，可能导致全球贸易量系统性萎缩。加征关税不仅 推高跨国交易成本，更迫使企业重构供应链，从追求效 ...