Asia Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Global Asia: IEEPA invalidation = Near-term relief, medium-term fog Lower tariffs are a positive for Asia's growth in the near term, but trade policy uncertainty is back. Negotiations will proceed at a slower pace. State of tariff play After the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) struck down President Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, President Trump announced that he would impose a 10% temporary import surcharge (la ...

什么时候装船、清关的货物属于122关税的豁免范围，可以不用缴纳这10%关税呢？ 基于这些问题，我们壹流融媒也是特地采访了美线货代-猫头鹰供应链，了解到了关于美国122关税的豁免相关条件，并获取了最新的美国关税 单。 据猫头鹰供应链雷总分享消息，从目前美国海关的最新通知看，可豁免122关税10%关税的产品包括： 1、老生常谈的"特定产品"，包括关键矿物、金银条块类金属、能源产品、美国产能不足的自然资源，肥料，牛肉、西红柿、橙子等农产品、药品 及成分，部分电子产品，某些航空航天产品，信息材料（例如，书籍）、捐赠品以及随行行李。 2、已交232关税的商品——因为232关税不叠加最新的122关税。 3、符合美墨加自由贸易协定（USMCA）的加拿大和墨西哥商品，以及根据多米尼加-中美洲自由贸易协定，进入免税状态的纺织品和服装商品。 在美国关税政策于春节期间经历一系列变化后，截至目前，虽然大家都知晓了关税总体是降低了10%，但还是有部分货主对于新的122关税豁免相 关规定有所不解。 比如，关于122关税的豁免是如何计算的？哪些产品能豁免？ 此外，在很多卖家、货主关心的"装船期限和到港期限"问题上。 具体而言，如果输美货物 ...

美国最高法院六比三的裁决，直接把特朗普用《国际紧急经济权力法》加征全球关税的路子给堵死了。 这项判决说得很清楚：总统没国会点头，不能自己拿这个法律当借口收税。 特朗普去年重新坐回白宫之后，就一直拿关税当武器使，动不动就对中国、加拿大、墨西哥课重税，理由是打击毒品走私和非法移民。 他甚至把某一天定成"解放日"，专门用来宣布对贸易伙伴征收对等关税。 这种做法早就惹得不少国家和企业不满，觉得他破坏了国际贸易的基本秩序。 现在法院一锤定音，说他越权了，宪法不认这个账。 特朗普的反应一点不温和，他在白宫临时召开发布会，当场骂投反对票的大法官"非常不爱国"。 连他自己亲手提名的两位保守派大法官，他也照批不误。 更进一步，他暗示这些法官被外国势力和民主党人操控，完全不提司法独立这回事。 这种把个人好恶凌驾于制度之上的态度，让很多人担心美国政治根基正在被侵蚀。 但特朗普根本没打算停手，反而立刻转向另一个法律工具——1974年《贸易法》第122条。 他马上签了行政令，要对所有贸易伙伴统一加征10%的关税，而且命令"立即生效"。 这个动作快得让人措手不及，明显是在跟最高法院对着干。 他就是要告诉全世界：就算法院说我违法，我照样有 ...

被美最高法叫停此前关税，特朗普竟搬出《1974年贸易法》向全球加征关税15%，全球贸易不确定性再 升级。 当地时间2月20日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施 的大规模全球关税缺乏法律依据。 美国总统特朗普的关税政策是其经济政策的关键组成部分，最高法院的裁决标志着对他权力的一次重大 制约，也是对其第二个任期经济议程的一次沉重打击。 判决公布后，特朗普迅速宣布将通过其他法律手段推出新的10%全球关税，为期150天，并于当地时间 21日把这一关税水平提高至15%。特朗普在社交平台发文称，接下来几个月里，美国政府将确定并颁布 新的"合法关税"。 特朗普的反应表明，他并不打算就此鸣金收兵，而是要换一条路继续往前冲。 特朗普于2025年2月首次援引IEEPA，对来自中国、墨西哥和加拿大等国的商品加征关税。 数月后，在其所谓的"解放日"将关税范围迅速扩大至几乎所有国家，税率区间为10%至50%。特朗普将 长期贸易逆差界定为"非同寻常的威胁"，并以此作为进一步征税的依据。据沃顿商学院估计，在IEEPA 之下，特朗普征收了约1750亿美元的关税。 当地时间2026年2月20日，美国 ...

Core Insights - Canada and India are working to expand energy trade, committing to increase oil and gas exports to reshape their economic and geopolitical relationship [1] - The decision was announced during the "India Energy Week" event in Goa, where Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hochstein and Indian Minister Hardeep Singh Puri met to restart ministerial energy dialogues [1] Group 1: Energy Trade Dynamics - Canada has historically concentrated 98% of its energy exports to one country, which is viewed as a strategic mistake, prompting a shift towards market diversification with India [1] - Currently, Canada does not export crude oil or LNG directly to India, with India's oil primarily sourced from Russia, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and LNG from Qatar [3] - India's oil imports have grown by an average of 2.5% over the past three years, while LNG imports are projected to decline by 6.3% by 2025, indicating a shift towards oil due to rising gas prices [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Export Plans - Canada is laying the groundwork for exporting new energy products to Asia, including building pipelines to the west coast, with three already constructed and more planned [3] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline opens a direct channel for crude oil exports, although most Canadian crude to India is currently transported via the U.S. Gulf Coast [3] - Canada is set to begin exporting LNG to Asia in June 2025, enhancing its capacity to serve the Asian market [3] Group 3: Clean Energy Collaboration - Canada and India have agreed to deepen cooperation in clean energy, focusing on mutual investment and exploring collaboration in hydrogen, biofuels, battery storage, critical minerals, power systems, and AI applications in the energy sector [4] - India's recent push to expand nuclear power may support Canada's ambitions to increase uranium exports [4] Group 4: Economic Partnership and Trade Potential - The energy relationship's revival is part of Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau's initiative to "reset" diplomatic relations, prioritizing market diversification amid tense trade relations with Washington [4] - The bilateral trade volume between Canada and India is projected to reach $9.7 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential, especially in the energy sector [4] - Currently, India accounts for only 1% of Canada's critical mineral exports, highlighting the potential for expansion [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has decided to temporarily refrain from imposing tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other critical minerals, opting instead to direct his administration to seek supplies from international trade partners [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Decision - The decision to delay tariffs could prevent further disruption to the U.S. economy, especially as the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump's tariffs [1]. - Trump has instructed U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to negotiate with trade partners to adjust the import levels of critical minerals, ensuring that such imports do not pose a threat to national security [1][3]. - If negotiations do not yield an agreement, Trump may consider setting a minimum import price for critical minerals or "may take other measures," although no further details were provided [1]. Group 2: National Security Concerns - Lutnick's report highlighted that the U.S. is "overly reliant on foreign sources for critical mineral resources," leading to unstable supply channels and price volatility, which pose "serious national security risks" [2][4]. - Trump emphasized that reliance on foreign processing of domestically mined minerals does not guarantee national security [6].

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that global trade will exceed $35 trillion for the first time by 2025, driven by significant contributions from East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade [1][2] Group 1: Global Trade Growth - Global trade is expected to maintain growth in the second half of 2025 despite geopolitical tensions, rising trade costs, and imbalances in global demand [1] - In Q3 of this year, global trade grew by 2.5%, with goods trade increasing by nearly 2% and services trade by 4% [1] - For the entire year, global trade is projected to grow by approximately 7%, with goods trade expected to increase by about $1.5 trillion and services trade by $750 billion [1] Group 2: Regional Contributions - East Asia has shown the strongest export growth over the past year at 9%, with intra-regional trade rising by 10% [2] - Africa's trade activity is also robust, with imports growing by 10% and exports by 6% [2] - South-South trade has increased by around 8%, indicating closer economic ties among developing economies [2] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The manufacturing sector, particularly electronics, is experiencing rapid growth in global trade, with a projected increase of 10% in manufacturing trade and 14% in electronics, partly due to demand in artificial intelligence [2] - The automotive sector is facing a decline in trade by 4%, although growth in hybrid vehicle trade is somewhat mitigating this downturn [2] - The energy sector is seeing a reduction in trade, primarily due to declines in fossil fuels, photovoltaic products, and critical minerals [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report indicates that trade imbalances will persist into 2025, with trends of "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" intensifying, as trade shifts towards partners with similar political stances or closer geographical proximity [2] - UNCTAD forecasts that global economic growth may slow in 2026 due to a combination of reduced economic activity, rising debt, increased trade costs, and ongoing uncertainties [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The proposed merger with Anglo American is seen as a unique opportunity to create a leading copper-focused producer of scale, enhancing Teck's value creation proposition [9][22] - 99.7% of the votes cast in respect of the Class A common shares and 89.7% of the votes cast in respect of the Class B subordinate voting shares were in favor of the arrangement resolution [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The merger is positioned as a natural progression of Teck's strategy, focusing on copper production [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The meeting reported a quorum with 66 shareholders holding 6,329,767 Class A common shares and 343 shareholders holding 380,831,701 Class B subordinate voting shares, representing 81.76% of the total votes [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The merger with Anglo American is part of a broader strategy to advance Teck's operations and market position [9] - The board unanimously supports the transaction, indicating strong internal alignment on strategic direction [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management emphasized the importance of safety and attention in the workplace, highlighting risks associated with distractions [5][6] - The focus on creating a leading copper producer aligns with industry trends and demands for critical minerals [9] Other Important Information - The meeting included a safety share emphasizing the importance of attention in maintaining workplace safety [2][5] - The final results of the vote will be reported in a news release and filed on SEDAR+ [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there any questions regarding the merger? - There were no questions raised during the meeting, indicating shareholder support for the merger [18]

Core Points - The US and Australia signed a significant mineral agreement valued at $8.5 billion, focusing on the mining and processing of rare earth and critical minerals [2][4] - The agreement aims to reduce US dependence on China for rare earth supplies, as China dominates the global supply chain [4][10] - Both governments committed to investing at least $1 billion each in mining and processing projects over the next six months [2][4] Group 1: Agreement Details - The US Export-Import Bank will provide over $2.2 billion in financing to various Australian mining companies [2] - The agreement includes joint projects, with the US investing in Australian processing facilities [4][6] - A minimum price for critical minerals will be established, addressing long-standing concerns of Western miners [6] Group 2: Strategic Context - The agreement is part of a broader US-Australia alliance, including the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact [8] - The deal was expedited due to China's recent export control measures on rare earths [4][8] - The agreement aims to enhance supply chain security and reduce reliance on Chinese processing capabilities [4][12] Group 3: Industry Implications - The US faces challenges in achieving short-term results due to existing technological and processing barriers [12] - Australia currently relies heavily on China for the processing of its rare earth minerals, with over 90% of its rare earth concentrates sent to China [6][12] - The agreement seeks to develop local processing capabilities in Australia to mitigate external dependencies [12]

Core Viewpoint - Australia is considering setting minimum prices for critical minerals and investing in new rare earth projects as part of a potential resource agreement with the United States [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Australian government has begun discussions with mining companies about co-investing to establish a strategic mineral reserve valued at 1.2 billion AUD (approximately 777 million USD) [1] - Proposed measures under review include possible price floors, government-backed loans, purchase guarantees, and direct investments in Australian projects to support local producers [1]