美联储发布最新一期全国经济形势调查报告（俗称"褐皮书"）。这份报告汇总了美联储12家地区银行在过去几周收集到的美国各地经济现状和 前景信息，将作为美联储5月召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议的重要决策参考。报告指出，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变 化，但国际贸易政策的不确定性普遍存在。 据北京日报报道，美国副总统万斯5月在接受采访时称，美联储主席鲍威尔"这个人不错"，但他同时表示鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错了"。 "好吧，首先，我认为总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的看法是正确的。杰罗姆·鲍威尔，他这个人不错，但他几乎在所有事情上都错了。"万斯在接受福 克斯新闻网采访时表示。他随后称，鲍威尔在应对美国前总统拜登造成的通胀问题时行动迟缓，现在协助特朗普政府反击贸易协议时也反应太 迟。"因此，我认为杰罗姆·鲍威尔在这一点上就是错了。"他补充说。 美联储（资料图） 美国经济（资料图） 20世纪50年代起，美国制造业"空心化"态势就已经显现。如今，制造业在美国经济总量当中占比仅一成左右，经济结构的转变推动了美国企业 将更多制造环节向效率更高、成本更低的地方迁移。而包括中国在内的其他国家承接美国企业的部分生产环节，则是基 ...

据环球时报援引美国《国会山报》《华尔街日报》等媒体报道，美国副总统万斯当地时间5月在接受采访时称，美联储主席鲍威尔"这 个人不错"，但他同时表示鲍威尔"几乎在所有事情上都错了"。 "好吧，首先，我认为总统对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的看法是正确的。杰罗姆· 鲍威尔，他这个人不错，但他几乎在所有事情上都错了。"万斯在接受福克斯新闻网采访时表示。他随后称，鲍威尔在应对美国前总 统拜登造成的通胀问题时行动迟缓，现在协助特朗普政府反击贸易协议时也反应太迟。 鲍威尔（资料图） 图片上传处理中... 特朗普（资料图） 鲍威尔2017年被特朗普提名为美联储主席，经国会参议院表决批准后上任，经总统拜登2022年提名后获得连任，任期至2026年5月结 束。他去年11月表示，不会主动辞职。特朗普在第一个任期内就曾频繁批评鲍威尔，经常敦促美联储降息，也曾威胁要让鲍威尔走 人。特朗普再次当选总统后，他与鲍威尔的矛盾再次让外界关注。鲍威尔曾表示，依据美国法律，特朗普无权解职自己。 在美联储以及美联储主席鲍威尔在面临美国总统特朗普以及美国总统万斯的施压之下，美联储理事沃勒力挺美联储，沃勒捍卫美联储 独立性：制度经受了时间考验！5月，美联储理事沃勒在 ...

分析师：4月CPI报告对美债市场来说是一份不错的报告 金十数据5月13日讯，AmeriVet Securities美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示，总的来说，相 对于最近美债收益率的上升，这份CPI报告对债券市场来说是一份不错的报告，而且我们可能需要几个 月的时间才能对美国经济有一个更清晰的了解。交易前景仍然是美联储有降息空间，尽管短期内持谨慎 态度。 ...

摩根大通：美国经济衰退的风险目前低于50%。 预计美联储将于12月降息，此前预计为9月。 ...

智通财经5月13日电，巴克莱预计2025年下半年美国不会陷入衰退，之前预测为温和衰退；仍预计未来 几个季度美国经济增长将放缓。 ...

巴克莱：仍预计未来几个季度美国经济活动增长将放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a potential decline in the likelihood of a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy, resulting in a downward adjustment of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased from 75 basis points to 55 basis points, with the timing of the cut pushed from June to September [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December, reflecting changes in the financial market environment [1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflationary effects from tariffs remain, with inflation expectations in the market not cooling down, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain a loose monetary policy [5] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with non-housing market service inflation at 3.4% in March, indicating upward pressure on inflation [5] - The latest tariff policies are expected to reduce US economic growth by 1-1.5 percentage points and may push core inflation up by 1-1.5 percentage points [5] Economic Downside Risks - Despite progress in trade negotiations, the risk of a downturn in the US economy persists, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months [7] - The effective tariff levels in the US remain significantly higher than in previous decades, which could negatively impact economic growth [7] - The average effective tariff rate in the US is currently at 17.8%, the highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing economic risks [7] Global Economic Context - The recent rebound of the US dollar index following trade negotiation progress does not change the underlying issues related to US dollar credibility and the trend of "de-dollarization" in global asset allocation [8] - A reduction in the US current account deficit could lead to decreased demand, impacting capital inflows into US assets and potentially putting long-term pressure on the dollar [8]

Group 1 - Domestic gold jewelry demand has been under pressure, decreasing by 32% year-on-year in Q1 due to high gold prices, reduced consumer demand, and a decline in the number of retail gold stores [1][3] - The average price of gold jewelry in major retail stores has dropped below 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable reductions in prices from brands such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook [1] - Despite the decline in gold jewelry demand, total consumer spending on gold jewelry remains relatively stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 7%, amounting to 841 billion yuan (approximately 115 billion USD) [3] Group 2 - Investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged to 124 tons, marking a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 12% increase year-on-year, driven by high gold prices and increased risk aversion due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may face further downward pressure in the short term, with a forecasted price adjustment to 3,150 USD in the next three months, while maintaining a year-end target of 3,600 USD [3] - The World Gold Council attributes the decline in gold jewelry consumption to high prices leading consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as well as a shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products [3]

智通财经5月13日电，高盛将未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性从45%下调至35%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank predicts a significant slowdown in the US economic growth to 1.4% for this year, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024 [1] Economic Outlook - The bank's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's 10% universal tariffs and erratic trade policies, which may impact the US economy and businesses in the coming months [1] - There is considerable economic uncertainty that has weakened confidence in US assets, as indicated by surveys showing a decline in both business and consumer confidence [1] Data Interpretation - Current soft data regarding economic performance raises questions about whether it will translate into significant hard data weakness, potentially leading to an economic recession [1]