【文/观察者网 王一】《日经亚洲评论》6月6日报道称，接近日美关税谈判的消息人士抱怨，美国财政 部长斯科特·贝森特、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔在贸易问题上持有不同立场， 他们之间的公开分歧、竞争和混乱，让日方很难判断美方的真实意图。 一位消息人士称，"3位内阁官员在与日方的会谈一度暂停，开始当面辩论"。 一位参与谈判的人士透露，"峰会没有做出决定之前，什么都不会决定"。 上月底石破茂与特朗普通话时，确认拟在6月15日至17日加拿大七国集团领导人峰会期间，在场边举行 面对面会谈，以期尽早达成协议。 从左至右依次为：美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、财政部长斯科特·贝森特以 及日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正共同社 贝森特和卢特尼克都曾是财政部长一职的候选人，现在两人虽然职位不同，但都参与了关税谈判。贝森 特被认为是一位注重市场的温和派，美国《纽约时报》称他在说服特朗普暂停90天征收关税中发挥了作 用。而卢特尼克以强硬的贸易立场著称，他在采访中曾表示，即使提高关税会导致经济衰退，也是"值 得的"。格里尔在特朗普第一届政府中曾担任时任美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽的助手，深度参与 ...

4月初，受美国推出所谓"对等关税"与OPEC+意外增产的双重影响，国际油价自75美元／桶一路跌破多 个重要支撑位，且两度下探至4年低点58美元／桶附近，跌幅超过20%，在众多风险资产中表现最为突 出。此后，随着贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，OPEC+延续加速投产，地缘局势动荡无序反复，原油消费开始 触底回升，油价在宏观、产业多空因素交织的复杂背景下进入区间窄幅震荡阶段，波动幅度缩小但节奏 凌乱。 供应端：在主动增产与被动减产中寻求平衡 5月31日，OPEC+的8个产油国宣布7月将继续增产，日产量增加41.1万桶。这是OPEC+连续第三个月加 快扩产步伐，4—7月累计恢复生产配额137万桶／日，此规模较最初计划提前半年达成，且在过去一段 时间内持续对油价走势形成抑制。 整体来看，OPEC+持续增产，一方面是为兑现复产承诺，另一方面也是因哈萨克斯坦等国超产而采取 的无奈惩罚措施。随着增产及油价下跌，这两个诉求均已达成。在本次会议上，俄罗斯、阿尔及利亚和 阿曼首次提出暂停增产，这一反对声音为未来OPEC+产量政策的调整预留了想象空间。 此外，基于各国生产情况、过往生产纪律以及后续补偿减产计划进行测算，到7月，这8个产油国的实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Johnson, emphasized the complexity of tariff negotiations and the necessity for free and fair trade, stating that now is an opportune time to invest in the United States [1] Group 1 - The complexity of tariff negotiations indicates potential challenges in international trade relations [1] - The call for free and fair trade suggests a focus on equitable market practices, which could impact various industries [1] - The assertion that it is a good time to invest in the U.S. highlights potential growth opportunities in the domestic market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，日本将坚持寻求研议所有美国关税的立场，这可能是本月两国领 导人峰会前的最后一次部长级谈判。"日本将继续强烈敦促美国重新考虑其一系列关税措施，"赤泽亮正 周四在东京启程前往华盛顿时表示。他补充道，他不确定将与哪些美国官员展开第五轮贸易谈判。赤泽 亮正定于周日返回日本，大约在G-7加拿大会议召开的一周前。日本首相石破茂和美国总统特朗普预计 将在会议间隙会晤，外界对两国届时宣布贸易协议的预期升温。 ...

Group 1 - The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% may lead to job losses and sales declines in Canada, which is the largest exporter of these metals to the U.S. [3] - The Canadian private sector union Unifor indicated that the tariff hike will have a rapid impact on the steel industry, while the Aluminum Association of Canada suggested that members may shift their exports to Europe due to the high tariffs [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada is prepared to retaliate if negotiations with the U.S. to remove the tariffs fail, emphasizing ongoing intensive talks [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have recently faced downward pressure after reaching a multi-month high of $34.79, with current trading around $34.49, indicating a slight decline [4] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $34.87 and $35.40, while support levels are at $33.70 and $32.80, the latter aligning with the 50-day moving average [4] - The short-term outlook for silver appears neutral, with potential downward risks if favorable data strengthens the U.S. dollar and tightens the Federal Reserve's stance [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the disk facing pressure at the 4800 level. The market is influenced by weak costs, demand, high production, and inventory, but may be supported by unexpected domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectations. In June, the spot supply - demand may be locally tight, but in the medium - term, it will likely oscillate weakly, with the 09 contract being mainly short - sold at high levels, and facing pressure at the 2400 level [3]. - The styrene market has a relatively high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the main contract facing pressure at the 7200 level [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to macro - level news and sentiment [6]. - The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It may rebound to a limited extent due to the recent coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1730 - 1850 [7]. - The methanol market has a relatively abundant supply. It may rebound to some extent following the coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. The L2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 6950 - 7350, and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6850 - 7200 [9][10]. - The soda ash market has a short - term upward movement in the futures price due to market sentiment, but the spot is weak, and the upward space of the disk is limited. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11]. Summary by Product PVC - On June 4, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4834 yuan/ton (+89), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions, and the supply pressure is large in the third quarter. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 4, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2367 yuan/ton (-4). The supply has good profits and high - level operation, with some new device production expected. There will be concentrated maintenance in June, and the demand has mixed signals, with the 09 contract facing pressure at 2400 [3]. Styrene - On June 4, the styrene main contract was at 7090 (+72) yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall valuation is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. Rubber - On June 4, the three rubber disks rebounded. The raw material price decline is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate has declined [6]. Urea - The urea 09 contract closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with the spot price in Henan rising. The supply is high, the agricultural demand has some potential, and the industrial demand is mixed. The inventory has increased, and it may rebound within a limited range [7]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 2.39% to close at 2270 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, the cost - profit situation is stable, the demand from the olefin industry is improving, while the traditional demand is weak. The inventory has increased, and it may follow the coal price to rebound [8]. Polyolefin - On June 4, the L main contract rose 1.24% to 7049 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract rose 0.93% to 6948 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will increase in the future, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a certain downward trend. The market is expected to oscillate widely [9][10]. Soda Ash - The futures price of soda ash rose to narrow the basis due to market sentiment, while the spot market is weak. The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11].

加拿大总理卡尼称，如果与美国的关税谈判未能取得成功，准备采取报复措施。 ...

美股全线上涨。 截至发稿，道指涨0.11%，标普500指数涨0.18%，纳斯达克指数涨0.17%。 | L | | w 美股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 Ａ股 | 美股 | 全球 | 商品 | 外汇 lil | | 美股市场概况 | | 财经日历 | | 海外机构持合 ot | | 美股指数 它 | | | | | | 道琼斯 | | 纳斯达克 | | 标普500 | | 42567.52 | | 19432.60 | | 5981.21 | | +47.88 +0.11% | | +33.64 +0.17% | | +10.84 +0.18% | 美国商务部长卢特尼克宣称，特朗普将于6月底之前推出飞机关税。波音公司股价呈现出V形走势，跌幅收窄至0.1%。 两年期美债收益率跌约7.0个基点，刷新日低至3.88%下方。 ICE美元指数跌0.3%，刷新日低至98.932点；彭博美元指数跌超0.4%，刷新日低至1208.60点。 现货黄金短线上涨10美元，重返3365美元/盎司上方，日内涨幅重新扩大至0.36%。 欧股普遍上涨，英国富时100指数涨0.34% ...

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets experienced a collective rise, with the German DAX index reaching a historical high, driven by positive developments in US-EU tariff negotiations and economic stimulus measures in Germany [1][4]. Group 1: European Stock Market Performance - The German DAX index rose over 1% during trading, reaching a peak of 24,346 points, marking a new historical record [4]. - The French CAC40 index, Swedish OMX all-share index, and OMX Copenhagen 20 index also saw gains exceeding 1% [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the DAX index has accumulated an increase of nearly 22% [4]. Group 2: US-EU Tariff Negotiations - EU Trade Commissioner Sevcovic reported constructive talks with US Trade Representative Lighthizer, indicating progress in tariff negotiations [2][3]. - Following the announcement of these talks, European stock markets experienced a surge [4]. - The US government is pressuring trading partners to submit optimal proposals for trade negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs and quotas on US agricultural products [5]. Group 3: German Economic Measures - German Chancellor Merz is set to visit the US, focusing on trade tensions and other key issues [6]. - The German government approved a corporate tax incentive plan worth approximately €46 billion (about $52 billion) to stimulate the economy [7]. - The plan includes a tax deduction of up to 30% for businesses purchasing movable assets from June 2025 to January 2028, pending parliamentary approval [7]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Eurozone inflation for May was reported at 1.9%, down from 2.2% in April, which may increase the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [8]. - The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food, stood at 2.3% [8]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB may implement additional rate cuts in response to the unexpected slowdown in inflation [8].