国内刺激政策

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能源化工日报-20250611
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:39
能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 6 月 10 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4810 元/吨(-6),常州市场价 4700 元 /吨(0),主力基差-110 元/吨(+6),广州市场价 4800 元/吨(+10), 杭州市场价 4710 元/吨(0),西北电石价格 2350 元/吨(+100)。基本 面,长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证 等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大(12%左右);供应端三季度有不少新 投计划,且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,供应压力较大;需求不足、 产能过剩,供需宽松格局。最近库存去化尚可,略低于去年同期,季节 性去库过程中,基本面驱动有限,宏观主导。宏观面,6 月 9 日中美会 面和谈,有助于缓解市场对贸易紧张格局的担忧,继续关注进一步的演 化;国内逆周期调节的政策仍相对审慎。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内 刺激政策力度。总的来看,弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制, 绝对价格低位。PVC 估值偏低,库存中性,驱动偏弱,盘面预计偏弱震 荡,暂关注 4850 一线压力。重点关注:1、海内外宏观数据、政策及预 期,2、出口情况,3、库存和上游开 ...
能源化工日报-20250605
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the disk facing pressure at the 4800 level. The market is influenced by weak costs, demand, high production, and inventory, but may be supported by unexpected domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectations. In June, the spot supply - demand may be locally tight, but in the medium - term, it will likely oscillate weakly, with the 09 contract being mainly short - sold at high levels, and facing pressure at the 2400 level [3]. - The styrene market has a relatively high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the main contract facing pressure at the 7200 level [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to macro - level news and sentiment [6]. - The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It may rebound to a limited extent due to the recent coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1730 - 1850 [7]. - The methanol market has a relatively abundant supply. It may rebound to some extent following the coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. The L2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 6950 - 7350, and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6850 - 7200 [9][10]. - The soda ash market has a short - term upward movement in the futures price due to market sentiment, but the spot is weak, and the upward space of the disk is limited. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11]. Summary by Product PVC - On June 4, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4834 yuan/ton (+89), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions, and the supply pressure is large in the third quarter. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 4, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2367 yuan/ton (-4). The supply has good profits and high - level operation, with some new device production expected. There will be concentrated maintenance in June, and the demand has mixed signals, with the 09 contract facing pressure at 2400 [3]. Styrene - On June 4, the styrene main contract was at 7090 (+72) yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall valuation is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. Rubber - On June 4, the three rubber disks rebounded. The raw material price decline is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate has declined [6]. Urea - The urea 09 contract closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with the spot price in Henan rising. The supply is high, the agricultural demand has some potential, and the industrial demand is mixed. The inventory has increased, and it may rebound within a limited range [7]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 2.39% to close at 2270 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, the cost - profit situation is stable, the demand from the olefin industry is improving, while the traditional demand is weak. The inventory has increased, and it may follow the coal price to rebound [8]. Polyolefin - On June 4, the L main contract rose 1.24% to 7049 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract rose 0.93% to 6948 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will increase in the future, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a certain downward trend. The market is expected to oscillate widely [9][10]. Soda Ash - The futures price of soda ash rose to narrow the basis due to market sentiment, while the spot market is weak. The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11].
能源化工日报-20250604
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:04
能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 6 月 3 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4745 元/吨(-19),常州市场价 4670 元 /吨(-10),主力基差-75 元/吨(+9),广州市场价 4740 元/吨(0), 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨(-10)。基本面,长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大 (12%左右);供应端三季度有不少新投计划,且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位,供应压力较大;需求不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局。最近库 存去化尚可,略低于去年同期,季节性去库过程中,基本面驱动有限, 宏观主导。宏观面,经过 4 月初贸易战突发的冲击影响逐步淡化,近期 关税缓和超过预期,但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存,继续关注进一 步的演化。国内一季度数据表现偏好,二季度转出口或有一定支撑,国 内大规模刺激政策短期或难出台。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政 策力度。总的来看,弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制,绝对 价格低位。PVC 估值偏低,驱动偏弱,盘面预计偏震荡。若国内刺激政 策超预期,或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化, ...
能源化工日报-20250509
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:53
公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 8 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4839 元/吨(-37),常州市场价 4660 元 /吨(-40),主力基差-179 元/吨(+3),广州市场价 4790 元/吨(0), 杭州市场价 4730 元/吨(-40)。5 月 7 日受中美和谈等消息影响,市场 一度宏观偏暖迹象,工业品冲高;国内出台货币政策等,力度一般。市 场更多交易对经济的担忧,美联储偏鹰。基本面看,长期看 PVC 需求在 地产拖累下持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总 体占比不大(12%左右);供应端有不少新投计划,二季度投产压力较大, 且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,库存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求 不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局,偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多, 出口以价换量持稳状态,内需季节性恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面 驱动有限,宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政 策预期不强,PVC 估值偏低,盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、 国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预 期,或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预 ...
能源化工日报-20250507
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 03:27
日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 6 日 PVC 震荡偏弱。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷,出口 受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大(12%左右);供 应端有不少新投计划,二季度投产压力较大,且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位,库存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求不足、产能过剩,供需宽 松格局,偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多,出口以价换量持稳状态, 内需季节性恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面驱动有限,宏观主导。目 前海外局势动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政策预期不强,PVC 估值偏 低,盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本 面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期,或有一定支撑。若贸 易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化,盘面进一步承压。 能源化工日报 公司资质 ◆ 烧碱: 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格:鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 5 月 6 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2498 元/吨(+19),山东市场主流价 800 元/吨(+20),折百 2500 元/吨(+62),液氯山东-100 元/吨(-200)。 4 月 13 日开始,山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 ...
能源化工日报-20250430
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 02:17
日度观点: ◆ PVC: 能源化工日报 咨询电话:027-65777102 从业编号:F3051631 投资咨询编号:Z0015756 4 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4949 元/吨(-40),常州市场价 4760 元/吨(-20),主力基差-189 元/吨(+20),广州市场价 4820 元/吨(-20), 杭州市场价 4850 元/吨(+20);兰炭中料 675(0)元/吨,乌海电石 2450 (0)元/吨,乙烯 7100(0)元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大(12% 左右);供应端有不少新投计划,二季度投产压力较大,且烧碱利润高 开工持续维持高位,库存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求不足、产能过 剩,供需宽松格局,偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多,出口以价换量 持稳状态,内需季节性恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面驱动有限,宏 观主导。目前海外局势动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政策预期不强, PVC 估值偏低,盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期,或有一 ...
能源化工日报-20250425
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 01:36
能源化工日报 日度观点: 4 月 24 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4968 元/吨(-38),常州市场价 4780 元/吨(0),主力基差-188 元/吨(+38),广州市场价 4850 元/吨(0), 杭州市场价 4830 元/吨(0);兰炭中料 675(0)元/吨,乌海电石 2450 (0)元/吨,乙烯 7100(0)元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总体占比不大(12% 左右);供应端有不少新投计划,且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,库 存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局,偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多,出口以价换量持稳状态,内需季节性 恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面驱动有限,宏观主导。目前海外局势 动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政策预期不强,PVC 估值偏低,盘面弱 势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口 和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期,或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、 经济预期继续恶化,盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱: 4 月 24 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2472 元/吨(-24 ...
能源化工日报-20250409
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-04-09 01:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Bearish allocation, with an overall cautious and bearish outlook, but potential support if domestic stimulus policies exceed expectations; otherwise, the market will face further pressure if trade frictions worsen and economic expectations deteriorate [2] - Caustic Soda: Cautiously bearish, with cautious downward movement in the market [3] - Rubber: Bearish, with a negative outlook especially before the substantial change in tariff impact [4] - Urea: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by US tariff policies [6] - Methanol: Concerns about price corrections due to a bearish sentiment on commodities influenced by tariff policies [7] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol, covering aspects such as price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic impacts. It provides investment outlooks and key points to watch for each product [2][3][4] Grouped Summaries PVC - On April 8, the closing price of the PVC main 05 contract was 4,907 yuan/ton (-22), the Changzhou market price was 4,800 yuan/ton (0), and the main basis was - 107 yuan/ton (+22). Long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints, with high inventory and over - supply. The market is bearish, mainly following the broader market, and is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars, US recession expectations, and domestic stimulus policies [2] Caustic Soda - On April 8, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,372 yuan/ton (-105). As of April 3, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased by 2.99% week - on - week and increased by 12.07% year - on - year. The market is cautiously bearish, with attention on factors such as Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [3] Rubber - On April 8, the rubber sector declined significantly. The market is currently macro - driven, with weak overseas demand due to tariffs. The fundamentals are weak, with increasing expectations of tapping, loose port inventory, and weakening raw materials. The rubber sector is bearish before the tariff impact changes substantially [4] Urea - The urea main contract closed down 2.91% at 1,804 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant with a slight decrease in daily output, and the cost is stable. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and industrial demand is stable. The inventory decreased, and there are concerns about price corrections due to US tariff policies [6] Methanol - The methanol main contract closed down 0.33% at 2,381 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is high, and the downstream methanol - to - olefins industry is stable. Both domestic and port inventories are decreasing. There are concerns about price corrections due to tariff policies [7]