全球能源市场正因地缘政治的火药味而剧烈震荡。7月28日，阴云笼罩下的苏格兰，特朗普向镜头掷下核弹级宣言："我对普京总统极其失望！"他悍然撕毁 了原定的50天停火协议，将俄乌和平谈判的最后通牒压缩至短短10到12天。如果8月10日前俄方不停止军事行动，美国将启动"二级制裁"，这并非仅仅针对 俄罗斯，更将波及中国、印度等购买俄油的国家。 特朗普此言一出，国际油价应声暴涨。WTI原油价格暴涨2.9%，达到67.06美元/桶，布伦特原油也蹿升2.8%，至70.35美元/桶，两大指标油价双双收复上周 的跌幅。与此同时，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率暴跌超过2%，跌破81关口，创下5月中旬以来的新低。如果"二级制裁"真正落地，全球第三大产油国俄罗斯的石 油出口将遭受重创，而OPEC的石油储备产能早已捉襟见肘。 所谓的"二级制裁"，实质上是一种针对跨国贸易的"连坐"机制。美国将对所有购买俄罗斯石油的第三方国家征收100%的关税，中国和印度将首当其冲。特 朗普的商务部长卢特尼克更是放出狠话："除了关税，美国还有其他制裁手段。"中国每年进口俄罗斯石油超过9000万吨，印度紧随其后。一旦制裁实施，中 国企业输美商品的关税将叠加至三位数，而 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，将再给俄罗斯10天时间与乌克兰达成停火协议，这是其首次明确设定新期限以向 普京施压要求结束冲突。 "以今日为起点，10天期限。"特朗普在当地时间周二结束苏格兰五日访问返程时，在空军一号上对记者 作出上述表态。 本周一特朗普曾宣称将缩短给普京的期限，并威胁若俄方不采取停火行动将实施经济惩罚，但当时未明 确具体截止日期。其在7月14日最初设定的50天期限原定于9月2日到期，而新期限将提前至8月8日。 "我们将加征关税等惩罚措施，虽然不确定能否奏效——因为普京显然希望延续冲突。"特朗普周二表 示。此番言论刺激WTI原油价格突破69美元/桶关口，创下去年6月以色列空袭伊朗以来最大单日涨幅， 布伦特原油看涨期权溢价两周来首次超过看跌期权。 本月早些时候特朗普宣称，若俄罗斯拒绝停火呼吁将实施100%关税。其顾问团队透露，惩罚措施可能 采用二级制裁形式，针对购买俄罗斯石油等出口商品的国家。华盛顿及其盟友认为这类采购行为构成对 俄支持，变相提振俄罗斯经济并削弱制裁效果。 尽管特朗普此前多次威胁经济惩罚普京，但均未付诸实施，分析认为其意在保留谈判空间。 二级制裁可能波及印度和中国两大贸易伙伴，时值特朗普正寻 ...

Group 1 - Trump has set a new 10-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, significantly shortening the previous deadline from 50 days to August 8 [1][2] - If no progress is made, the U.S. will impose tariffs on Russia and potentially implement secondary sanctions affecting countries that purchase Russian oil, which could impact major buyers like India [2][7] - Following Trump's announcement, international crude oil futures surged, with WTI reaching $69.76 and Brent at $73.08, marking the largest intraday gains since June 17 [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts express concern that the new deadline could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, especially as the EU has also announced new sanctions against Russia [6] - Trump indicated that the U.S. could increase domestic oil production to mitigate any potential impacts from sanctions on the oil market [8] - The potential secondary sanctions could affect India's trade relations with the U.S., raising questions about whether Trump will follow through with punitive measures against these trading partners [9] Group 3 - Russia has responded strongly to Trump's ultimatum, with officials indicating that they are unlikely to change their stance, despite the pressure from the U.S. [10] - The ongoing conflict and sanctions create a complex situation for both the U.S. and Russia, with each side calculating the potential consequences of their actions [10]

Group 1 - President Trump has set a new 10-day ultimatum for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, significantly shortening the previous 50-day deadline to August 8 [1][2] - The announcement has led to a substantial increase in international crude oil prices, with WTI crude rising to $69.76, a nearly 4.6% increase, and Brent crude reaching $73.08, up over 4.3%, marking the largest intraday gains since June 17 [5] - Analysts express concern that if the ultimatum is enforced, it could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, especially as the EU has recently announced new sanctions against Russia [8] Group 2 - The potential for secondary sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil could impact major buyers like India, as the U.S. views such purchases as tacit support for Russia [9][10] - Trump's administration is currently negotiating with countries like India regarding trade agreements, raising questions about the likelihood of imposing sanctions on these trading partners [9][10] - Political analysts suggest that India and other major oil importers may reduce their imports of Russian energy, either voluntarily or due to tariff pressures, which could financially impact the Russian government [9][11] Group 3 - The Kremlin has responded to Trump's ultimatum by indicating that President Putin is unlikely to change his stance, despite the pressure from the U.S. [13] - Recent escalations in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine suggest that diplomatic efforts have not yielded progress, as indicated by the lack of response from Russia to Trump's ultimatum [12][13] - The situation reflects a complex strategic calculation for both the U.S. and Russia, with potential implications for global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's ultimatum to Russia has been significantly shortened from 50 days to 10 days, creating heightened tensions and impacting global oil prices [1][3][11]. Group 1: Ultimatum and Sanctions - Trump has set a new deadline of August 8 for Russia to reach a ceasefire agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, a reduction from the previous deadline of September 2 [1]. - The potential "secondary sanctions" could target countries that continue to purchase Russian oil, which may affect major buyers like India [1][7]. - Trump's warning of imposing "very severe, approximately 100% tariffs" on Russia if no agreement is reached within the stipulated time frame indicates a serious escalation in trade tensions [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - Following Trump's announcement, international crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude rising nearly 4.6% to $69.76 and Brent crude increasing over 4.3% to $73.08, marking the largest intraday gains in over six weeks [3]. - Analysts express concerns that the new deadline could tighten the supply of Russian oil and fuel in the global market, potentially leading to further price increases [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Reactions - The EU has recently announced new sanctions against Russia, which includes penalties against Indian company Nayara Energy, indicating a broader geopolitical response to the conflict [6]. - Trump's remarks about not worrying about the impact of sanctions on the oil market suggest confidence in increasing domestic oil production to offset any potential supply disruptions [8]. - Political analysts speculate that India and other major oil-importing countries may reduce their imports of Russian energy, either voluntarily or due to tariff pressures, which could financially impact the Russian government [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight news shows that US President Trump plans to shorten the exemption period for Russia, increasing market expectations of new sanctions on Russian energy exports, leading to a generally strong performance of oil prices. The OPEC+ production cut supervision meeting did not give any suggestions, and the production in September will be decided at the weekend meeting of core oil-producing countries. Meanwhile, China-US trade negotiations have begun, and the exemption period may be further extended. In the short term, multiple positive factors are stimulating oil prices to run strongly. The short-term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long-term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: US and Chinese senior economic officials held over five hours of talks in Stockholm to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and seek to extend the trade truce by three months; Trump set a new deadline of 10 or 12 days for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war; the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) emphasized full compliance with oil production agreements, and eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to decide whether to increase oil production in September, which is considered neutral [3]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $71.50 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.49 per barrel. The basis was 19.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending July 18 in the US, the API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels (expected decrease of 646,000 barrels); the EIA inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels); the Cushing area inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous increase of 213,000 barrels). As of July 28, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.249 million barrels, an increase of 723,000 barrels, which is considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the moving average, which is considered neutral [3]. - Main positions: As of July 15, the main positions in WTI crude oil were long positions, with a decrease in long positions; as of July 15, the main positions in Brent crude oil were long positions, with an increase in long positions, which is considered neutral [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading range is between 512 and 520, and long - term investors are advised to hold a small number of long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia to reach an agreement with Ukraine to about 10 - 12 days, threatening "secondary sanctions" on Russia. This statement pushed international crude oil futures to rise during Monday's trading session. US WTI crude oil rose to $67.06, up more than 2.9% on the day, and Brent crude oil rose to $70.35, up nearly 2.8% on the day [5]. - US and Chinese senior economic officials held talks in Stockholm, aiming to resolve long - standing core economic disputes and extend the trade truce by three months. Trade analysts believe that the tariff and export control truce reached in mid - May is likely to be extended by 90 days [5]. - Trump's remarks about firing the Fed Chairman Powell and his request to visit the renovation project of the Fed headquarters have attracted attention. Powell will hold a press conference on Thursday morning. The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is not of high importance for the economy and interest rate decisions. The market generally expects no change in the benchmark interest rate [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it depends on the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil rose from $67.66 to $69.32, an increase of 2.45%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; SC crude oil decreased from 508.6 to 505.5, a decrease of 0.61%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.91 to $71.28, a decrease of 0.88% [7]. - Spot market: The price of UK Brent Dtd rose from $69.67 to $70.41, an increase of 1.06%; WTI crude oil rose from $65.16 to $66.71, an increase of 2.38%; Oman crude oil decreased from $71.96 to $71.50, a decrease of 0.64%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $67.66 to $67.07, a decrease of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $71.87 to $71.21, a decrease of 0.92% [9]. - API inventory: As of July 18, the API inventory was 45.4388 million barrels, a decrease of 577,000 barrels [10]. - EIA inventory: As of July 18, the EIA inventory was 41.8993 million barrels, a decrease of 3.169 million barrels [12]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, the net long position was 153,331, a decrease of 9,096 from the previous period [14]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions: As of July 22, relevant data shows changes in net long positions, and as of July 15, the net long position was 238,745, an increase of 16,398 from the previous period [17].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia's failure to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine has led him to shorten the previously set 50-day deadline to approximately 10 to 12 days, threatening to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia if no progress is made [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's statements, international crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude rising to $67.06, up over 2.9%, and Brent crude reaching $70.35, up nearly 2.8% [2] - The Russian ruble weakened against the dollar, dropping below 81.00 and falling over 2%, marking a new low since mid-May [5] - Market concerns about potential supply disruptions due to sanctions have intensified, with traders reassessing risks related to transportation costs and supply chain changes [8] Group 2: Sanctions and Trade Implications - Trump's threat of "secondary sanctions" could impact major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and China, as it may lead to sanctions on countries doing business with sanctioned entities [5][7] - The potential for a 100% tariff on Russian goods, including oil, was previously mentioned, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [6] - Trump's remarks about Russia's rich rare earth resources suggest a potential area for trade, although the current geopolitical climate complicates such discussions [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Prospects - Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have faced setbacks, with Trump expressing frustration over the lack of sincerity from Putin in negotiations [9] - NATO allies, including Germany, are increasing pressure on Russia and enhancing military support for Ukraine, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive stance against Russian actions [9] - Despite some minor diplomatic exchanges, such as prisoner swaps, there has been no substantial progress towards ending the conflict that began with Russia's invasion in February 2022 [9]

特朗普：（谈俄罗斯）除非我们达成协议，否则我们将实施二级制裁；我们可能会达成协议。 ...

中美会谈前夕，美国竟临时改变主意，想要给中国定下死规矩，对于美国出尔反尔、过河拆桥的行径，中国该如何应对呢？ 日前美国财政部长贝森特在接受采访期间，表示中美将在8月"关税休战"到期前进行磋商。5月中美在瑞士日内瓦会谈期间，确认达成临时性的"关税 休战"，双方相互降低关税，为期三个月。算算时间，这一轮"关税休战"正是在8月到期。因此在休战到期前，中美会开启新的磋商，达成更多共 识，并延长"关税休战"。那么既然如此，中美新一轮磋商前景如何呢？ 华之行。普京已经安排访华是此前已经公开的事实，但俄方此时公开有关消息，不排除它们也是担心因为美国的施压，给中俄合作造成困扰，所以 先放出风声，表现出俄罗斯对中俄关系的重视，稳定中俄关系，避免中俄合作被破坏。 贝森特透露，他打算将中国对俄罗斯和伊朗石油的采购纳入到谈判讨论范围内。因为伊朗核问题，美国当下还在对伊朗保持制裁，也不准别国购买 伊朗的石油。至于对俄罗斯，近期无论是美国还是北约方面都放话称，一旦美国总统特朗普给俄罗斯的50天期限到期，俄罗斯还没有和乌克兰达成 停火协议的话，美国就要对俄罗斯实施严厉制裁，至于和俄罗斯进行能源贸易的国家，比如中国、印度和巴西，美国则会针对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate with significant military actions reported from both sides, alongside diplomatic developments involving the U.S. and potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Group 1: Military Actions - Over the past week, Russian forces have conducted 10 joint strikes targeting Ukrainian military industrial enterprises, military airfields, and drone facilities [2][3] - Russian Black Sea Fleet has destroyed 4 Ukrainian unmanned boats, while Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 27 aerial bombs, 7 rockets, 4 Neptune missiles, and 2049 drones [3] - Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 85 battles occurring on the front lines, with the Pokrovsk region experiencing the most intense fighting [4] Group 2: Attacks on Ukrainian Cities - On July 25, Russia launched ballistic missile attacks on Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, causing significant damage [5][6] - Reports indicate that Kharkiv was targeted by multiple airstrikes, resulting in injuries and fatalities among civilians, including a child [7][9] - An explosion in a residential building in Saratov resulted in 3 deaths, including one child, attributed to a suspected gas explosion [10][12] Group 3: Diplomatic Developments - Former U.S. President Trump expressed a desire to maintain the limits set by the New START treaty on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear weapons, marking his first statement on this since taking office [13][14] - Trump indicated that the treaty, which limits each country to 1550 deployed nuclear warheads, is crucial for international security and should not be allowed to expire [15][16] - Discussions are ongoing regarding a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with both sides showing interest in negotiations [20][23]