据路透社报道，北约秘书长吕特周三（16日）警告称，如果巴西、中国和印度等国家继续与俄罗斯开展 贸易，这些国家可能会受到"二级制裁"的严重打击。对于上述消息，在7月16日举行的中国外交部例行 记者会上，外交部发言人林剑在回应外媒记者"中方对此有何评论"的提问时表示，昨天我已经就相关的 问题阐明了中方的立场。我愿再次重申，中方始终认为对话谈判是解决乌克兰危机的唯一可行出路，坚 决反对任何非法单边制裁和"长臂管辖"。关税战没有赢家，胁迫施压解决不了问题，希望各方能为推动 乌克兰危机的政治解决进一步营造氛围、积累条件，多做有益于劝和促谈的事。（环球时报） ...

北约秘书长称巴西、中国等国或面临二级制裁 外交部：坚决反对 智通财经7月16日电，据智通财经，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。7月15日，北约秘书长马克·吕 特宣称，如果俄罗斯不与乌克兰达成和平协议，巴西、中国和印度恐面临美国的二级制裁，并敦促巴 西、中国和印度向俄罗斯施压。有外媒记者就此提问。"昨天我已经就相关的问题阐明了中方的立场"， 林剑重申，中方始终认为对话谈判是解决乌克兰危机的唯一可行出路，坚决反对任何非法单边制裁和长 臂管辖。"关税战没有赢家，胁迫施压解决不了问题，希望各方能为推动乌克兰危机的政治解决，进一 步营造氛围，积累条件，多做有益于劝和促谈的事。"他说。 ...

在斡旋调停俄乌冲突方面，特朗普明显已无计可施，开始重新走上拜登的老路，选择支持乌克兰以对抗俄罗斯，甚至已做好与普京决裂的准备。此时，中俄 印伊四国的外长齐聚北京，释放出引人注目的信号，预示着全球局势的新动态。 近期，特朗普政府针对正在进行的俄乌冲突做出了正式表态，不仅发出了对俄罗斯征收100%关税的警告，还宣称美国与北约之间达成了共识，将全力支援 乌克兰，包括提供数十亿美元的军事装备，其中包括17套先进的爱国者导弹系统。这不仅是物资援助，还可能涉及政治和战略层面的合作。 在俄罗斯态度强硬之际，考虑到中国在俄罗斯能源出口中扮演的重要角色，迅速引发了我国外交部的回应。发言人林剑对外界表示，中国在乌克兰危机问题 上的立场始终明确，认为通过对话与协商才能有效解决危机，坚决反对任何非法单边制裁和"长臂管辖"，强调关税战没有赢家，靠威胁和施压无法根本解决 问题。 外交部的表态表明，中国坚定地不同意美国对俄罗斯施加新税，以及对中印两国进行"二级制裁"。这无疑是发出信号，向美国表明其对俄罗斯的支持和维护 地区稳定的决心。 更为引人注意的是，美国将对俄罗斯的制裁问题与中印两国的经济发展联系起来。根据特朗普的言辞，百分之百的关税 ...

Core Points - Trump's ultimatum to Russia includes a 50-day deadline for a peace agreement with Ukraine, failing which the U.S. will impose 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil [1][3] - The U.S. plans to provide Ukraine with a complete set of weapons, potentially including 17 Patriot missile systems, with costs to be borne by Europe [1][10] Summary by Sections Tariff Threat - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Russia is seen as lacking practical significance, given that over 20,000 sanctions are already in place, and trade between the U.S. and Russia is minimal [3][11] - The effectiveness of this tariff threat is questioned, as Russia is unlikely to yield to U.S. pressure without losing international credibility [3][11] Secondary Sanctions - The secondary sanctions are primarily aimed at China and India, the main buyers of Russian oil, with China importing 108 million tons of crude oil from Russia in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of growth [6] - Previous attempts by the Biden administration to cut off Russian energy revenue through sanctions have not significantly impacted Russia's energy exports, raising doubts about the effectiveness of Trump's approach [6][11] Military Aid to Ukraine - The announcement of providing 17 Patriot missile systems to Ukraine is met with skepticism, as U.S. military sources indicate a shortage of these systems for high-end combat needs [10] - The feasibility of supplying advanced weaponry like the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) is also questioned, with media suggesting that such promises may not be realized [10][11] Market Reaction - Market responses indicate that Trump's threats have not caused significant turmoil in Russia, which appears to have adapted to existing sanctions and found ways to cope with economic pressures [11]

特朗普并未透露细节，但一名白宫官员随后表示，新制裁将包括对俄罗斯输美商品加征100%关税，以及对购买俄罗斯石油的国家加征 100%的二级关税。若实施，这些制裁将大幅升级西方自2022年2月俄乌冲突以来对俄发动的经济战。 但石油交易员并不买账。特朗普宣布后，油价实际下跌逾1美元，这表明投资者认为他兑现威胁的可能性很低。 原因在于，美国对俄罗斯石油实施有效的二级制裁，极可能导致全球能源价格飙升，推高全球通胀，最终损害美国消费者利益——而 这是特朗普不愿看到的。 实际上，投资者的判断是：特朗普的威胁越极端，实现的可能性就越低。这或许是个合理的赌注，但也暗藏风险。 美国总统特朗普威胁要通过二级制裁切断俄罗斯的石油收入，这将对莫斯科的财政造成沉重打击，但市场认为，由于此举可能推高能 源价格，华盛顿最终不会付诸实施。 周一，特朗普在白宫与北约秘书长马克·吕特（Mark Rutte）共同出席活动时警告，若50天内未能达成结束俄乌冲突的协议，将对俄罗 斯实施"非常严厉"的关税。 欧洲2022年之前是俄油的最大进口国 俄罗斯石油：全球能源市场的"重量级玩家" 对俄罗斯而言，能源市场的利害关系极大。 俄罗斯是仅次于美国和沙特的全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed "Graham Bill" aims to impose a 500% punitive tariff on goods from countries like China and India that continue to import energy from Russia without aiding Ukraine, which could significantly impact global economic markets and energy dynamics [1][3][11]. Group 1: Legislative Proposal and Support - Senator Lindsey Graham introduced the "Graham Bill" on July 7, 2025, which has reportedly garnered support from 82 to 84 senators, indicating a strong legislative foundation [1][3]. - The bill targets countries that import Russian energy while not providing assistance to Ukraine, specifically naming China and India as primary targets [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - China and India are major buyers of Russian oil, with China importing an average of 1.96 million barrels per day (17% of its total imports) and India reaching a historical high of 2.1 million barrels per day (nearly 40% of its total imports) [3]. - If the bill is enacted, it could severely disrupt the global energy market, potentially pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering inflation crises worldwide [11][19]. Group 3: Diplomatic Reactions - India has expressed its reliance on Russian energy and hopes for U.S. understanding, while China has firmly rejected any external interference in its energy cooperation with Russia [5][7]. - The U.S. government's internal divisions regarding the bill's support suggest a cautious approach, with the White House opting to observe market reactions before committing [17]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The bill is viewed as a "double-edged sword," as its implementation could lead to significant repercussions not only for Russia but also for the U.S. economy and its allies [11][19]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with both China and Russia accelerating their "de-dollarization" efforts, increasing the use of their currencies in energy transactions, which could undermine the U.S. dollar's dominance [9][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to buy more crude oil on dips, and the price may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.47 per barrel, a 2.15% decline, at $66.98 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.15 per barrel, a 1.63% decline, at $69.21 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 4.40 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 507.50 yuan per barrel [2]. Market News - Russian seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast based on supply surplus, expecting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 per barrel and $52 per barrel respectively by 2026 [4]. - Trump stated that the US will send more weapons to Ukraine and may impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if no agreement is reached within 50 days [4]. - S&P reported that Azerbaijan's production in June was 71,000 barrels per day less than the OPEC+ quota [4]. - Iran's foreign minister will visit China [4]. - The General Administration of Customs will implement zero - tariff policies for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations [4]. - The deputy director of the General Administration of Customs said that Sino - US trade has rebounded, with the import and export value in June rising from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decline narrowing significantly [4]. - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [4]. - Federal Reserve's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [4]. - Powell asked the Fed inspector to review renovation costs [4]. - The EU trade chief plans to hold talks with US counterparts later on Monday [4]. - A member of Iran's National Security Council said that the military agreement on the Strait of Hormuz has been finalized, and the decision to close the strait has not been made [5]. - The US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the Fed should be independent but is "very wrong" on tariff issues [7]. - Brazil plans to ask the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and will announce reciprocal counter - measures [7]. - In August, the one - way freight for Russian Urals oil between Baltic ports and India dropped below $5.3 million [7]. - The US Ambassador to NATO said secondary sanctions will target buyers of Russian oil [7]. - US President Trump will announce a $70 billion artificial intelligence and energy investment plan in Pennsylvania on Tuesday [7]. - The EU may impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth about $84 billion if the trade negotiation fails, as Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [7]. - NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that countries will quickly transport equipment to Ukraine, and European countries are "stepping up" arms supplies [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a bullish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [6].

美国驻北约大使惠特克：二级制裁将针对购买俄罗斯石油的买家。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：特朗普指的是想对俄罗斯实施二级制裁，而非（二级）关税。 ...

Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures maintained a decline of 1.3%, closing at $66.17, with a drop to $65.98 following President Trump's threat of "secondary tariffs" against Russia [1] - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross clarified that Trump intended to impose secondary sanctions on Russia rather than additional secondary tariffs [1]