Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The extension of the "tariff truce" between China and the US for 90 days shows that the bilateral economic and trade relations are moving towards "phased relaxation", creating a positive atmosphere for future consultations [1] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and other non - OPEC members, indicating a tighter market outlook [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to increased crude oil inventories after OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases [2] - In the asphalt market, demand in the North China market is slowly recovering, and supply in the Shandong market is abundant. The Northeast market has weak demand, while the Southern market has stable prices with medium - low inventory and slow demand release. Overall, regional differentiation continues, and the supply - demand structure is the key variable for short - term price trends [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Spot Market - In the East China region, the current asphalt spot price is 3730, unchanged from the previous value; in South China, it is 3530, also unchanged; in the Northeast, it is 3900, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 3860, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 3640, down 10 from the previous value; in the unspecified region, it is 3690, up 30 from the previous value [1] Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures contracts BU2508, BU2509, BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, and BU2601, the current values are 3406, 3534, 3503, 3460, 3406, and 3370 respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, - 0.17%, - 0.14%, - 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively compared to the previous values [1] International Economic and Trade News - On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US will continue to adjust tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [1] Oil Market News - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from non - OPEC members [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts. The expected average Brent crude price for 2025 is $67.22/barrel (previously $68.89/barrel), and for 2026 is $51.43/barrel (previously $58.48/barrel). The expected average WTI price for 2025 is $63.58/barrel (previously $65.22/barrel), and for 2026 is $47.77/barrel (previously $54.82/barrel) [2] Asphalt Market Analysis - In the North China asphalt market, demand is slowly recovering, and limited shipments from major refineries support spot prices. In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are concentrated in the low - price range. In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders lower prices to stimulate sales. In the Southern market, demand is slow, but refinery inventories are medium - low, and prices are stable [5] - In the future, North China and Shandong refineries will focus on contract deliveries, and inventory levels are controllable. The tight supply in North China may support asphalt prices, while the Southern market is expected to have stable prices due to slow demand release [5]

Core Viewpoint - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Stockholm economic talks indicates a shift towards more constructive and pragmatic negotiations, with both sides agreeing to maintain a stable framework for trade discussions and a temporary pause on additional tariffs [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiation Framework - China is currently the only country effectively countering U.S. pressure and transitioning the U.S.-China trade discussions from a highly politicized atmosphere to functional and pragmatic negotiations [2]. - The established negotiation mechanism has allowed for a return to a relatively stable communication and dialogue framework reminiscent of the pre-2018 trade environment [2]. - The framework includes clear delineation of issues of concern for both sides, facilitating ongoing high-level discussions [2]. Outcomes of the Stockholm Talks - The Stockholm joint statement introduced a "constructive" tone, reflecting an increase in satisfaction with the outcomes of the talks [3]. - The consensus reached emphasizes that certainty in trade relations is preferable to uncertainty, aiming to control the trade conflict at an acceptable level [5][6]. - The talks have resulted in a mutual understanding that unilateral pressure tactics from the U.S. are counterproductive, as they could lead to significant economic repercussions for the U.S. [6][8]. Future Implications - The joint statement signifies a continuation of the previous 90-day pause in tariff increases, maintaining the status quo in U.S.-China trade relations [12]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of maintaining a stable policy environment, with both sides agreeing to reciprocal actions regarding tariffs [12][13]. - The ongoing negotiations are expected to adhere to market economic principles, despite the U.S. government's various policy challenges [14]. Strategic Positioning - The current state of U.S.-China relations is characterized as a "strategic stability," indicating a recognition from both sides of the need for ongoing dialogue and negotiation [11]. - The ability of China to withstand U.S. strategic pressure and compel the U.S. to return to the negotiation table is seen as a significant achievement [11][9]. - The framework established through these negotiations is viewed as a foundation for future discussions, with the potential for more substantive agreements as both sides continue to engage [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. on the foreign trade industry, highlighting the uncertainty and adjustments made by businesses in response to changing trade policies [5][11]. Group 1: Tariff Suspension and Its Effects - On August 12, a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff was announced, while a remaining 10% tariff and an additional 20% tariff on certain products remain in effect, resulting in a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. [5][11]. - The initial announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April caused significant disruptions in trade, with tariffs on some products exceeding 100%, leading many businesses to halt production [5][11]. Group 2: Changes in Business Operations - August is typically a busy season for foreign trade operators, but this year, many businesses are ending their busy season earlier due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [15][19]. - Companies have reported an increase in workload, with some factories experiencing a 20% increase in production to meet urgent orders before the tariff deadline [19][20]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trade Behavior - Despite a brief surge in shipping demand, the overall shipping rates did not rise as expected, indicating a cautious approach from both suppliers and buyers [22][24]. - Many Chinese suppliers are opting for smaller, more frequent shipments to manage risks associated with tariffs, reflecting a shift in trade behavior [25][26]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Product Strategy - There is a noticeable shift in consumer demand towards lower-priced products, as higher tariffs have led to increased prices for goods [26][27]. - Companies are focusing on product innovation and cost reduction strategies to remain competitive, with some exploring new markets outside the U.S. [31][32]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led companies to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with many choosing to maintain current operations rather than aggressively pursuing new markets [30][32]. - Platforms like TikTok Shop and Temu are expanding in Europe while facing declines in the U.S., indicating a potential shift in market focus for e-commerce businesses [32].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the extension of the "tariff truce" between the US and China for an additional 90 days, which aims to stabilize trade relations and create a positive atmosphere for further negotiations [1][3][4] - The US will continue to suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days while retaining the remaining 10% tariff, and China will also suspend its 24% tariff on US goods for the same period [1][4] - Analysts suggest that this extension indicates a phase of easing in US-China economic relations and provides more time to address unresolved issues [1][3][4] Group 2 - The recent negotiations have led to a clearer understanding of each country's demands and bottom lines, which is beneficial for controlling conflicts [4] - The extension of the tariff truce allows for continued imports of key products like electronics, clothing, and toys into the US at relatively lower tariffs, especially ahead of the critical holiday season [4][5] - Both sides are signaling a desire to reduce trade tensions, with China suspending measures against certain US entities and the US considering easing some export restrictions [5][6] Group 3 - Future negotiations are expected to focus on the core issue of tariffs, including discussions on how to achieve full or partial reductions of the suspended 24% tariffs [7] - Key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are likely to be focal points in the upcoming talks [7] - The US may seek increased Chinese investment and procurement, while China will push for the removal of unreasonable investment and technology restrictions imposed by the US [7][8] Group 4 - Despite the "tariff truce," trade flows between the US and China have been negatively impacted, with US imports from China dropping by approximately 15% to $165 billion in the first half of the year, and US exports to China decreasing by about 20% [7][8] - China is actively diversifying its markets and optimizing its foreign trade structure to mitigate external uncertainties, which may help maintain export stability [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market's major indices rose this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market attention shifted to corporate semi - annual reports after the Politburo meeting, and the net profit growth of reported companies increased. Trading activity declined compared to last week [8]. - The bond market entered a repair phase. Although the central bank continued net withdrawals in the open - market operations, the bond market stabilized. The potential VAT levy on treasury bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds [8]. - The commodity market faced a retracement risk. Although the Sino - US tariff truce was extended and trade relations improved marginally, domestic fundamentals remained weak [8]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar was under pressure due to the dovish signals from the Fed and weak economic data, while the euro was boosted by the weakening dollar in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stocks**: The CSI 300 rose 1.23%, and CSI 300 stock index futures rose 1.27%. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with IM>IC>IF>IH in terms of gains. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.15% with a weekly change of - 0.09BP, and the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.18%. The suggestion is to buy on dips [8]. - **Commodities**: The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.86%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.10%. Due to weak fundamentals, there is a risk of retracement. The recommendation is to buy on dips [8]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.65%, and the euro - US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.70%. The suggestion is to observe cautiously [8]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic**: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council plans to gradually implement free pre - school education. Several departments issued policies on finance and foreign exchange remittance [16]. - **International**: The US - EU trade tension eased as the EU postponed tariff counter - measures. Trump signed executive orders to impose tariffs on multiple countries, and there were speculations about a new Fed chair [18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In July, exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% in US dollars, both better than expected [13]. - **US**: The factory orders in June decreased by 4.8%, and the initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2 increased to 226,000 [19]. - **EU**: The eurozone's June PPI increased by 0.8%, and retail sales increased by 0.3% [19]. - **UK**: The central bank interest rate remained at 4% [19]. - **Germany**: The industrial output in June decreased by 1.9%, and the trade surplus was 14.9 billion euros [19]. - **France**: The industrial output in June increased by 3.8%, and the trade deficit was 7.623 billion euros [19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Key economic data to be released next week include the UK's July unemployment rate, the US's July CPI, Germany's July CPI, and China's July social consumer goods retail sales [81].

国际新闻 l 据悉特朗普顾问们认为美联储理事Waller是接替鲍威尔主席职位的最合适人选。白宫经济顾问委员会 主席Miran获特朗普提名出任美联储理事，任期至明年1月。 l 美国持续申领失业救济人数升至2021年底以来最高，反映劳动力市场进一步降温。 l 美国二季度生产率回升，有助于抑制工资相关的通胀压力。另据纽约联储调查，7月消费者通胀预期 上升，对就业市场看法改善。 白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran获特朗普提名出任美联储理事，任期至明年1月。特朗普顾问们认为美联 储理事Waller是接替鲍威尔主席职位的最合适人选。 隔夜要点 l 美国股市道琼斯工业指数和标普500指数周四收低，受到制药商礼来（LLY.US）股价重挫的拖累，纳 指则创下收盘纪录新高。美国公债收益率在震荡交易中小幅上涨。美元走弱，媒体报导称美联储理事沃 勒成为美联储主席热门人选。油价连续第6个交易日下跌，此前克里姆林宫称俄罗斯总统普京将在未来 几天会见美国总统特朗普，从而提高了通过外交途径结束乌克兰战争的预期。金价升至逾两周最高，特 朗普关税生效以及美国就业数据强化降息预期。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | 日变动% | 年初至今变动% | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese government has adopted a more optimistic stance on economic growth and the easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions, as reflected in the Politburo's recent meeting outcomes [1][2] - The Politburo's attitude towards the economic growth outlook has improved compared to the April meeting, with a notable reduction in concerns regarding the Sino-U.S. trade conflict [2][3] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October will focus on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to shape future economic policies [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the need for detailed implementation of macroeconomic policies, suggesting a shift from introducing new policies to enhancing the effectiveness of existing ones [4] - There is a reduced urgency for large-scale stimulus measures in key sectors, with a focus on developing new growth points in service consumption and supporting goods consumption [5][6] - The government remains cautious regarding local government debt issues, emphasizing the need to prevent the accumulation of new hidden debts while addressing existing debt challenges [6] Group 3 - The tone regarding "anti-involution" actions has softened, with the Politburo opting for a more general approach to addressing disorderly competition rather than specific measures to eliminate outdated capacity [3][4] - The recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S. have led to a more moderate stance on export support, reflecting a decrease in urgency following the potential extension of the tariff truce [6] - The meeting did not mention any plans for additional funding for the vehicle trade-in program, indicating a limited scope for new consumer incentives [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report indicates that due to the favorable rainy climate in the US Midwest, there are expectations of a good soybean harvest. The agreement to extend the tariff truce by 90 days has led to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil shows a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July, but is supported by the strong international energy market and is oscillating at a high level. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 2743.16 million tons [2] - As of last weekend, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China was 2.6094 billion tons, a weekly increase of 165,000 tons. Soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased by 261,000 tons and 164,000 tons respectively [2] - In June, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase; rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase; rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase [2] - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% in its July 29 report, reflecting stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 5 million tons, higher than 4.8 million tons in 2024, after India lowered import tariffs [3][4] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the favorable climate in the US Midwest supports the expectation of a good soybean harvest. The extension of the tariff truce leads to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July but is supported by the strong international energy market and oscillates at a high level [7][8] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The short - term optimistic sentiment about oil prices has rebounded, and oil prices are expected to run strongly. In the short term, it will run strongly in the range of 525 - 535, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and both sides intend to extend the sanctions exemption period. Trump has significantly shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement and threatened to impose tariffs [3]. - **Basis**: On July 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.80 per barrel. The basis was 19.95 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending July 18 increased by 0.455 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 22, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures. Sino - US trade negotiations are in line with market expectations. Short - term oil prices will run strongly in the 525 - 535 range, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict from 50 days to 10 days. If there is no progress, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures in 10 days [5]. - Sino - US officials held "constructive" talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce period. Whether to extend it will be decided by Trump [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased, with increases of 2.36, 2.50, 9.20, and 1.72 respectively, and the ranges were 3.40%, 3.75%, 1.82%, and 2.41% respectively [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., also increased [9]. 5. Position Data - **API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels [3][13]. - **WTI and Brent Net Long Positions**: As of July 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased [3][15][18].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - July 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Dushufang from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the "constructive talks" between China, the US, and Sweden, the tariff truce is temporarily maintained. The two markets opened lower and closed higher yesterday, with late - session rallies. Innovation drug medical, steel and other sectors led the gains, and market hotspots rotated. Banks and insurance continued to adjust. The index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, but market volatility may increase, and intraday chasing of highs is not recommended [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **IH Contracts**: IH2508 had a contract price of 2,812.60 with a 0.33% increase, and a volume of 11,112. It had a 4.01 - point premium. The IH main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IF Contracts**: IF2508 had a contract price of 4,152.80, a 0.57% increase, and a volume of 24,227. It had a 0.78 - point premium. The IF main contract showed an increase in long positions [2][3]. - **IC Contracts**: IC2508 had a contract price of 6,317.80, a 0.68% increase, and a volume of 23,067. It had a 38.33 - point discount. The IC main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IM Contracts**: IM2508 had a contract price of 6,731.00, a 0.84% increase, and a volume of 38,521. It had a 42.88 - point discount [3]. 2. Spot Market - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index had different daily percentage changes, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 1.86% [11]. - **Style Indexes**: Different style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, Low - P/E Index, etc., also had varying daily percentage changes, with the 300 Growth index having a 2.59% increase [14][17]. 3. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index showed fluctuations from November 2024 to July 2025 [20]. - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were presented over a long - term period [22]. - **P/B Ratio**: The P/B ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were shown over a long - term period [24]. 4. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Inflows**: The net inflow of A - share funds and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [26]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [28]. - **Northbound Capital**: The net inflow of northbound capital was presented over a long - term period [30]. - **Fund Cost**: The SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates were presented from November 2024 to July 2025 [36]. 5. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market capitalization) were presented over a long - term period [39][42][43]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Data on public - offering hybrid fund positions were presented, but no specific details were provided in the text [44]. 6. Other Data - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The dividend yields of stock index futures and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield were presented over a long - term period [48]. - **Exchange Rate**: The USD - CNY exchange rate was presented from May 2021 to July 2025 [49].