叁||多位研究者认为，新的增量政策会适时推进，其规模或与"924"政策存在差异，但针对性 会更强。 2025年9月24日，沪指收于3853.64点，4000余只个股上涨；而在2024年9月中下旬，沪指一度跌至2689 点。 一年间，沪指上涨超过1000点。 带来改变的是2024年9月24日（下称"924"）开启的一系列增量政策：降准、降息、化债以及创新型的货 币政策工具。这一系列政策指向了稳增长、促消费、推动物价恢复、稳定楼市与股市的多元目标。更重 要的是，增量政策的集中出台，改变了此前宏观政策的边际方向，也彰显出宏观经济思路的转变。 "924"成为这一改变的起点。 远东资信研究院副院长张林对经济观察报表示， "924"一揽子增量政策是一次颇为成功的宏观政策操 作，各项政策直指制约经济正向循环的核心矛盾，力图帮助各个部门修复资产负债表，减缓经济转型过 程中出现的阵痛。 2025年上半年的宏观政策进一步延续了增量政策的积极取向，赤字率调升至4%，"两新"政策持续落 地；降准和降息按节奏推进，同时设立了服务与养老再贷款等新的政策工具。 壹||一年过去，被市场称为"924"新政的宏观调控，已成为中国经济政策从"稳健 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the extensive cultural, sports, and tourism activities planned in Liaoning province during the extended National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, aiming to boost local consumption and enhance visitor experiences through diverse events and promotions [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Activities - Over 1,000 cultural and tourism events will be organized under the theme "Enjoy Autumn in Liaoning," featuring cultural experiences, audiovisual performances, and autumn sightseeing [1] - Five major red tourism routes will be launched, alongside various themed activities such as "Following the Hero's Path" and non-heritage food tourism routes [2] - A total of 400 performances, including music festivals and operas, will take place, with notable events like the Liaoning Ballet Troupe's tour and the "Mid-Autumn Song Festival" in Shenyang [2] Group 2: Sports Events - Nearly 80 sports events will be held, including the Shenyang International Flying Conference and the first Northern Sea Dragon Boat Race in Dalian [3] - Various innovative consumption models will be introduced, such as "Event + City Exhibition + Cultural Market," to enhance visitor engagement and spending [3] Group 3: Consumer Promotions - More than 300 large-scale promotional activities will be launched under the theme "Shopping in Liaoning," with events in major cities like Shenyang and Dalian [4] - Local businesses will participate in extensive promotional campaigns, including live broadcasts and unique night market experiences [4] - Transportation services will be enhanced to accommodate increased travel demand, including the installation of mobile charging stations for electric vehicles [4]

宁夏银川推出159项促消费活动点亮"双节" 激活消费市场 中新网银川9月23日电 (李佩珊 鲁治平)记者23日从宁夏银川市召开的相关新闻发布会获悉，国庆中秋双 节期间，银川市将以"塞上湖城·大美银川"城市品牌为核心，围绕"乐购银川""畅游银川""悦动银川""妙 选银川""微醺银川"五大品牌，组织开展159项特色促消费活动，点亮"双节"，激活消费市场。 节日期间，银川市辖三区各党政机关、国有企业还将开放停车场所140处，提供免费停车位29814个，最 大限度满足节日停车需求。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张嘉怡 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 今年"双节"期间，银川市将发放"满1000减220""满500减100"等多重消费券，针对汽车消费发放5000万 元消费券，并推出"银川必吃榜"20家、亲民平价餐厅10家、地道风味餐厅10家、服务与环境双优餐厅10 家，邀市民游客共赴一场消费盛宴和舌尖上的狂欢。 银川 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity index rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products continuing to weaken. Macro factors are mixed, and fundamentals may dominate the trend. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. - Overseas, the new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus, the Fed cut interest rates, US retail sales grew, and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index increased [3]. - Domestically, due to factors such as slowing export growth, economic downward pressure has increased in August. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies, focusing on fiscal support, central bank interest rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Influencing Factors and Main Logic**: This week, the commodity index showed a trend of rising and then falling, with industrial products rising slightly and agricultural products weakening. The first half of the week was stimulated by factors such as progress in China - US trade negotiations and rising Fed interest - rate cut expectations, while the second half was suppressed by the landing of interest - rate cut expectations and the rebound of the US dollar index [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: From September 14th to 15th, China and the US reached a basic framework consensus in Madrid. On September 18th, the Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. On September 16th, US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In August, due to factors like slowing export growth, economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, new incremental measures will be introduced, with the core being fiscal support, central bank interest - rate cuts, and promoting the real estate market to stabilize. The joint efforts of fiscal and monetary policies will focus on "stabilizing investment" and "promoting consumption" [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Macro factors are mixed. The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro policies, trade negotiations, geopolitical factors, and changes in peak - season demand [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The new round of China - US talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the "restart of easing" will have an important impact on market liquidity [3]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, and the real retail sales after CPI adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month [3]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index in September rose, and the industrial output in July rebounded slightly [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In August, due to factors such as slowing export growth, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial production, investment, and consumption continued to decline, and economic downward pressure increased. It is expected that new incremental measures will be introduced in the fourth - quarter macro - policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [3]. - The cumulative growth rate of tax revenue turning positive is a positive signal, but the year - on - year decline in the transfer income of state - owned land use rights indicates that local land finance still faces certain pressure [3]. - Nine departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 specific measures from five aspects [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **开工率数据**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rates of terephthalic acid, polyester, and weaving in the polyester industry chain, as well as the national and Tangshan blast furnace operating rates [33]. - **汽车销售数据**: The data shows the year - on - year growth rates of factory wholesale and retail sales, and specific sales data for September [42][45]. - **农产品价格数据**: The data includes the average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].

Group 1 - The fiscal "front-loading" in the first half of 2025 provided significant support to the economy, with broad fiscal expenditure growth reaching 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth of 4.3% [1][2] - The funding sources for fiscal support primarily relied on government debt and carryover funds, with a record fiscal deficit of -5.3 trillion yuan in June [1] - Key areas of fiscal expenditure included social security and employment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and scientific and technological spending, which grew by 9.1% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - The consumption sector showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% in retail sales, with significant increases in "trade-in" related goods such as home appliances and communication equipment, contributing 52% to GDP growth [2] - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5% in the first half of the year, benefiting from subsidies for equipment updates and fiscal support for cultural and sports activities [2] Group 3 - There is a potential need for increased fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 if economic pressures become evident, with the goal of achieving the annual economic target [3] - The broad fiscal deficit in July was -5.6 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase from June, while the issuance of new government debt is nearing its end [3] Group 4 - If fiscal measures are increased, two categories of tools may be utilized: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [4] - Historical context shows that significant budget adjustments have been rare, with the last major adjustment occurring in October 2023 [4] Group 5 - The current fiscal focus is on risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a particular emphasis on addressing hidden debt issues [5] - The government is prioritizing support for emerging industries and services, as well as enhancing service sector openness to stimulate consumption and trade [5] - Specific initiatives include a child-rearing subsidy program with a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing consumer spending [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in supporting economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3% [3][10] - Fiscal expenditures in the first half of 2025 showed a front-loaded rhythm and differentiated allocation, with a focus on debt resolution and rapid implementation of special refinancing bonds, amounting to nearly 1.8 trillion yuan [3][22] - Key areas of fiscal support included social security and employment, with expenditures increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and scientific and technological spending rising by 9.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [3][22] Group 2 - The necessity and possibility of increasing fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 are highlighted, especially if economic pressures become evident, with potential adjustments to fiscal policies to meet annual GDP targets [5][40] - The article discusses two categories of fiscal tools for potential increases: one involving incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments, and another involving new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [6][68] - Historical context is provided regarding past adjustments to fiscal budgets, indicating that significant changes have occurred infrequently, with the last major adjustment in October 2023 involving an additional 1 trillion yuan in government bonds [6][68] Group 3 - Current fiscal priorities are identified as risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a focus on addressing hidden debt issues at the local government level [7][74] - The article notes that new emerging industries and service sector development are key areas of support, as indicated by recent political meetings emphasizing new pillar industries and increased openness in the service sector [7][81] - Specific fiscal measures include the establishment of a childcare subsidy fund with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at supporting families with children [7][89]

Core Viewpoint - The light industry in China is a key sector for economic growth, consumer promotion, and livelihood improvement, with a strong international competitive edge. The "Light Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to enhance the industry's role in these areas through various strategic tasks [1]. Group 1: Key Objectives of the Work Plan - The main goals of the Work Plan include highlighting the role of light industry in stabilizing growth and promoting consumption from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on maintaining stable scale and operational efficiency in key industries [1]. - New growth points such as smart home products, elderly and infant goods, and sports leisure fashion products are expected to develop rapidly, leading to increased consumer capacity [1]. - The plan aims to promote 300 upgraded and innovative products and cultivate 10 characteristic industrial regions with a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Tasks for Quality Supply - The Work Plan outlines three major tasks for quality supply: accelerating product innovation, enhancing quality assurance, and strengthening brand cultivation [2]. - Specific actions include conducting consumer goods supply-demand matching initiatives using artificial intelligence, revising standards for 10 product categories, and completing 300 industry standard revisions annually [2]. - The plan also emphasizes the development of AI applications in the light industry, particularly in home appliances and sports equipment [2]. Group 3: Consumer Promotion Strategies - In promoting consumption, the plan continues to support "old-for-new" initiatives for home appliances and electric bicycles, while also focusing on health, elderly care, and cultural tourism as new growth engines [2]. - The Work Plan aims to leverage AI to create innovative products and high-quality industrial data sets [2]. Group 4: Export Development Directions - The Work Plan provides new directions for the internationalization of light industry, supporting leading enterprises in global brand building and cross-border e-commerce [2]. - It encourages localities to develop comprehensive overseas service ports and stations to facilitate global business expansion [2]. Group 5: Implementation Pathways for Enterprises - The Work Plan emphasizes the need for market participants to collaborate in implementing the policies, focusing on technology leadership, quality pricing, brand building, and global layout optimization [3]. - It calls for enterprises to actively exit low-efficiency capacities and enhance high-end supply capabilities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Light Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to enhance the role of light industry in stabilizing growth, promoting consumption, and improving livelihoods, amidst increasing international uncertainties and domestic demand challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Objectives and Goals - The main goals of the work plan include highlighting the role of light industry in economic growth and consumer enhancement from 2025 to 2026, with a focus on stable growth and operational efficiency [1]. - Key industries are expected to maintain stable growth, with new growth points such as smart home products, elderly and infant goods, and sports fashion products rapidly developing [1]. - The plan aims to promote 300 upgraded and innovative products and cultivate 10 characteristic industrial regions with a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Key Tasks - The work plan outlines three major tasks for quality supply: accelerating product innovation, strengthening quality assurance, and enhancing brand cultivation [2]. - Specific actions include conducting consumer goods supply-demand matching, revising standards for 10 product categories, and completing 300 industry standard revisions annually [2]. - In promoting consumption, the plan supports "old-for-new" exchanges for appliances and focuses on new growth engines in health, elderly care, and cultural tourism [2]. Group 3: Export Strategies - The work plan indicates new directions for the internationalization of light industry, supporting leading enterprises in global brand building and cross-border e-commerce [2]. - It encourages localities to create comprehensive service ports for overseas expansion and to guide enterprises in global investment strategies [2]. Group 4: Implementation and Corporate Responsibility - The successful implementation of the work plan relies on the active participation of market entities, emphasizing the need for companies to enhance technology leadership, optimize global layouts, and respond to policies [3]. - Companies are urged to phase out inefficient production capacities and improve high-end supply capabilities [3].

Core Insights - Heilongjiang Province has organized over 1,400 promotional consumption activities this year, directly driving consumption exceeding 12 billion yuan [1] - The province's retail sales of consumer goods reached 354.04 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, surpassing the national average by 0.6 percentage points [1] - Upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day festivals will see over 200 diverse promotional activities, focusing on sectors like automobiles and home appliances, with planned government consumption vouchers and funds exceeding 50 million yuan [1] Consumption Activities - Heilongjiang's government has issued over 600 million yuan in consumption vouchers [1] - The promotional activities have been a collaborative effort between provincial, municipal, and county levels [1] - The focus on innovative consumption scenarios and food festivals aims to enhance consumer engagement [1] Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, while communication equipment and home appliances experienced significant increases of 65.3% and 67.1%, respectively [1] - The growth in these sectors is attributed to multiple favorable policies implemented by the government [1] Future Plans - The "Gift Joy Double Festival Purchase Heilongjiang" theme will guide the upcoming promotional activities [1] - The government aims to strategically plan and coordinate these activities to maximize consumer participation and spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy measures issued by multiple government departments in China emphasize the importance of enhancing consumer spending as a human-centered process rather than merely an economic task [2][3][5] Group 1: Policy Measures - The new policy measures combine "benefiting people's livelihoods" with "promoting consumption," highlighting that improving living standards is foundational for stimulating consumption [3] - The policy aims to address urgent public needs while simultaneously unlocking consumption potential through initiatives like supporting early childhood education and advancing long-term care insurance [3] Group 2: Innovation and Execution - The initiative includes a "scene revolution" to address the shortage of quality supply by selecting around 50 cities for pilot programs that focus on innovative consumption scenarios and business models [4] - The policy emphasizes the importance of execution, ensuring that measures are effectively implemented, such as expanding the range of visa-free countries and enhancing the shopping experience for tourists [4] Group 3: Human-Centered Approach - The essence of promoting consumption has shifted from passive economic stimulus to actively creating a better quality of life, reflecting a human-centered philosophy [5][6] - The approach recognizes consumers as social beings with diverse emotional and cultural needs, moving away from viewing them solely as economic agents [5]