| 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | --- | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 他 研 究 开源晨会 0702 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.601 | | 医药生物 | 1.804 | | 银行 | 1.535 | | 有色金属 | 1.489 | | 公用事业 | 1.046 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.182 | | 商贸零售 | -0.788 | | 通信 | -0.452 | | 传媒 | -0.376 | | 电力设备 | -0.373 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"两重"接力支撑 PMI，预计 Q2 GDP 约 5.2%——兼评 6 月 PM ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 29 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 6月 第 4 周周报 5 月风光装机高增，小米 YU7 订单亮眼 新能源汽车方面，本周小米 YU7 正式上市，1 小时大定突破 28.9 万台，下 半年随着新能源新车型不断推出，新能源汽车产品力不断增强，2025 年国内 新能源汽车销量有望保持高增，带动电池和材料需求增长。动力电池方面， 固态电池催化不断，本周美国 QS 宣布其固态电池生产获里程碑式进展，固 态电池产业化趋势明确，后续关注固态电池相关材料和设备企业验证进展。 光伏方面，中央经济工作会议明确提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，国家市场监 管总局针对光伏组件进行抽检，光伏供给侧改革力度有望加强；需求侧，我 国 5 月光伏装机高达 92.92GW，装机同比增长 388%，可能一定程度上压制 25H2 光伏装机需求，密切关注供给变化情况，光伏板块重点关注硅料环节 和 BC 以及贱金属降本方向。氢能方面，政策持续推动氢能产业化发展，能 源局开展能源领域氢能试点，地方政策催化不断，建议关注具备成本优势、 技术优势的电解槽生产企业、受益于氢能基础设施建设的燃料 ...

工业硅周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 供需弱平衡，工业硅反弹有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周工业硅反弹有限，主因全球经济增速存在下行预期， 工业品市场情绪偏弱，光伏供给侧改革令行业进入收缩周 期。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复至7成左右,川滇地区 丰水期临近开工率回升，内蒙和甘肃产量低位反弹，但供 应端增量有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅价格持续走跌拉晶 厂库存高压难解，7月初 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with Nissan announcing its first solid-state battery vehicle launch in 2028, indicating a clear trend towards solid-state battery commercialization [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in June are expected to reach 1.1 million units, with a penetration rate of approximately 55%, suggesting strong demand and growth potential in the sector [1] - The report highlights the importance of cost-effective and technologically advanced electrolyzer manufacturers and companies benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector experienced a decline of 0.79% this week, with the wind power sector increasing by 1.63% and the nuclear power sector decreasing by 2.84% [2][10] - The report notes that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is projected to be around 2 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2][25] New Energy Vehicles - Xiaomi's YU7 is set to launch at the end of June, contributing to the growing product lineup in the new energy vehicle market [1][25] - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for batteries and materials driven by the anticipated high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025 [1] Battery Technology - Nissan confirmed the launch of its first solid-state battery vehicle in 2028, marking a significant milestone in battery technology [1][25] - The report mentions successful delivery and testing of dry-process core equipment for solid-state batteries by Xianhui Technology in collaboration with leading domestic solid-state battery companies [2][25] Photovoltaics - The report indicates that the central economic work conference has called for comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition in the photovoltaic sector, suggesting a potential increase in supply-side reforms [1] - The price of silicon materials is currently under pressure, with mainstream prices around 30-34 RMB/kg, and the report anticipates further price adjustments in the coming months [15][21] Hydrogen Energy - The report highlights ongoing policy support for the hydrogen energy sector, with the Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission outlining plans for hydrogen production capacity and infrastructure development [1][25] - The hydrogen energy industry is expected to achieve a total output value exceeding 60 billion RMB per year by 2030 [25] Company Developments - Xiamen Tungsten's new energy materials sales reached approximately 47,600 tons in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 20.95% [27] - Hengrun Co., Ltd. plans to invest 1.2 billion RMB in a project to produce 2,000 sets of wind turbine gearbox components, with construction expected to start in July 2025 [27][28]

6月10日，在光伏行业年度盛会SNEC2025光伏展开幕式上，全球绿色能源理事会主席、协鑫集团董事 长朱共山表示，当前，中国光伏产业正处在"四落五起"的临界点。今年下半年到明年一季度是光伏供给 侧改革的关键窗口期。 来源：北京日报客户端 记者：孙杰 如遇作品内容、版权等问题，请在相关文章刊发之日起30日内与本网联系。版权侵权联系电话：010-85202353 在他看来，确定的"双碳"进程，决定了光伏产业仍将保持一定时期内的线性增长。纵观全球，光伏目前 仍是技术与经济优越性最突出的能源形态之一。即便充分考虑政策与融资环境波动、贸易壁垒等因素， 光伏的线性增长乃至指数级爆发，依然是大概率事件。 "光伏的未来一定很美好，但黎明前的黑暗最难熬。"朱共山表示，当前，全环节过剩依然是高悬在头顶 的"达摩克利斯之剑"。从过剩出清到生态重构再到稳定发展，光伏还有一段蜕变之路要走。今年下半年 到明年一季度是光伏供给侧改革的关键窗口期。 他建议，以"市场化兼并重组+技术淘汰机制+政策强制约束"去产能，将光伏产能指标统一纳入国家规 划的大盘子，备案核查、产能监测、违规清退，全链路监管。除颠覆性新技术之外严控新增产能。避免 不合理的 ...

全球绿色能源理事会主席、协鑫集团董事长朱共山在6月10日的SNEC光伏展开幕式上表示，中国光伏 正处"四落五起"的临界点，今年下半年到明年一季度是光伏供给侧改革的关键窗口期。朱共山倡议政企 联动促出清 ，以"市场化兼并重组+技术淘汰机制+政策强制约束"去产能，通过"供给侧自律+需求端刺 激"去库存。 ...

在今日进行的SNEC大会开幕式上，大会执行主席、协鑫集团董事长朱共山提出建议，以"市场化兼并重 组+技术淘汰机制+政策强制约束"去产能，通过"供给侧自律+需求端刺激"去库存。他认为，今年下半 年到明年Q1是光伏供给侧改革的关键窗口期，为推动产业高质量发展，应该将光伏产能指标统一纳入 国家规划的大盘子，备案核查、产能监测、违规清退，全链路监管。除颠覆性新技术之外严控新增产 能。避免不合理的地方保护行为，防止"边清边增"。（记者 刘梦然） ...

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of industrial silicon last week was hindered as the market digested the positive sentiment of the China-US truce, and the trading focus returned to the weak supply-demand fundamentals of the commodity. The supply side is operating weakly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 50% and that in the Southwest below 30%, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu also decreasing. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. After a brief boost from macro sentiment, industrial silicon has returned to a weak fundamental pattern, with social inventory rising slightly to 599,000 tons and the center of the spot market continuing to decline. Technically, the previous bottom support of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to continue to explore the bottom in the short term [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract decreased from 8,205 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials also showed varying degrees of decline, while the price of 3303 spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory increased from 596,000 tons to 599,000 tons, an increase of 0.50% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In April, China's social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year. The cumulative social financing increment in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year. The issuance of government bonds accelerated beyond expectations, which was the main driving force for the acceleration of social financing in April. As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, indicating that China's economic credit structure is gradually improving and the long-term foundation for stable economic growth remains solid [8]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of May 16th, the weekly output of industrial silicon dropped to 69,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 213, with an overall open furnace rate of 26.6%. In April, China's industrial silicon output was only 301,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. The photovoltaic winning projects are mostly small and medium-sized projects, which have a limited impact on the overall installation volume [9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of May 16th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 599,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard of delivery products, most of the 4-series brand warehouse receipts could not be re-registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5-series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. The recent pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened mainly due to the continuous decline in domestic production [10]. Industry News - **Component link**: In the first quarter of 2025, JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, and Trina Solar still ranked among the top four in the photovoltaic module shipment volume. In 2024, their total component shipment volume exceeded 300GW, accounting for nearly 60% of the global new photovoltaic installation. These four companies have established their moats through technological leadership. They have launched new products with high conversion efficiency and are also competing in the next-generation industrial technology [12]. - **Price trend**: According to Sobee Consulting's price tracking data, the price of silicon materials decreased slightly last week. Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production schedules, and the inventory backlog problem of polysilicon manufacturers was prominent, with the short-term price downward trend difficult to reverse. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained stable. The price of photovoltaic modules has rebounded since March, but with the end of the peak installation period, the component market price has shown a downward trend. In April 2025, nearly 30GW of photovoltaic modules were tendered [13].

工业硅周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 光伏需求下滑，工业硅震荡寻底 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅再度下探，主因中美贸易谈判充满不确定性， 光伏"5.31"前抢装潮临近尾声，工业品市场情绪相对低 迷。供应来看，新疆地区开工率继续回落，西南开工率保 持低位运行，内蒙和甘肃产量小幅回升，供应端整体承压 回落；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场情绪十分悲观头部企业 暂停报价，硅片市场成交尚可但行情持续走弱，光伏电池 出现终端需求萎缩价格存在下探空间，组件分布式和集中 式倒挂现象持续，抢装期临近尾声新订单难以在5.31新规 实施前接入并网，4-5月光伏装机减速几成定局，工业硅 终端消费骤降令市场情绪难以好转，社会库存小幅降至 59.6，而广期所仓单库存仍接近7万手。 王 ...