光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of industrial silicon last week was hindered as the market digested the positive sentiment of the China-US truce, and the trading focus returned to the weak supply-demand fundamentals of the commodity. The supply side is operating weakly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 50% and that in the Southwest below 30%, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu also decreasing. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. After a brief boost from macro sentiment, industrial silicon has returned to a weak fundamental pattern, with social inventory rising slightly to 599,000 tons and the center of the spot market continuing to decline. Technically, the previous bottom support of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to continue to explore the bottom in the short term [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract decreased from 8,205 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials also showed varying degrees of decline, while the price of 3303 spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory increased from 596,000 tons to 599,000 tons, an increase of 0.50% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In April, China's social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year. The cumulative social financing increment in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year. The issuance of government bonds accelerated beyond expectations, which was the main driving force for the acceleration of social financing in April. As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, indicating that China's economic credit structure is gradually improving and the long-term foundation for stable economic growth remains solid [8]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of May 16th, the weekly output of industrial silicon dropped to 69,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 213, with an overall open furnace rate of 26.6%. In April, China's industrial silicon output was only 301,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. The photovoltaic winning projects are mostly small and medium-sized projects, which have a limited impact on the overall installation volume [9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of May 16th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 599,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard of delivery products, most of the 4-series brand warehouse receipts could not be re-registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5-series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. The recent pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened mainly due to the continuous decline in domestic production [10]. Industry News - **Component link**: In the first quarter of 2025, JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, and Trina Solar still ranked among the top four in the photovoltaic module shipment volume. In 2024, their total component shipment volume exceeded 300GW, accounting for nearly 60% of the global new photovoltaic installation. These four companies have established their moats through technological leadership. They have launched new products with high conversion efficiency and are also competing in the next-generation industrial technology [12]. - **Price trend**: According to Sobee Consulting's price tracking data, the price of silicon materials decreased slightly last week. Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production schedules, and the inventory backlog problem of polysilicon manufacturers was prominent, with the short-term price downward trend difficult to reverse. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained stable. The price of photovoltaic modules has rebounded since March, but with the end of the peak installation period, the component market price has shown a downward trend. In April 2025, nearly 30GW of photovoltaic modules were tendered [13].

工业硅周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 光伏需求下滑，工业硅震荡寻底 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅再度下探，主因中美贸易谈判充满不确定性， 光伏"5.31"前抢装潮临近尾声，工业品市场情绪相对低 迷。供应来看，新疆地区开工率继续回落，西南开工率保 持低位运行，内蒙和甘肃产量小幅回升，供应端整体承压 回落；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场情绪十分悲观头部企业 暂停报价，硅片市场成交尚可但行情持续走弱，光伏电池 出现终端需求萎缩价格存在下探空间，组件分布式和集中 式倒挂现象持续，抢装期临近尾声新订单难以在5.31新规 实施前接入并网，4-5月光伏装机减速几成定局，工业硅 终端消费骤降令市场情绪难以好转，社会库存小幅降至 59.6，而广期所仓单库存仍接近7万手。 王 ...

Group 1 - Chengdu government has issued policies to enhance the city's power supply capacity, focusing on eight areas including accelerating power grid construction and promoting distributed solar and new energy storage projects [1] - Guohai Securities anticipates a resurgence in photovoltaic supply-side reform, with potential restrictions on silicon material output and encouragement of high-efficiency battery technology to alleviate industry overcapacity [1] - The global commercial storage market is expected to grow, with distributed storage gaining traction due to decreasing costs and increasing demand for backup power [1] Group 2 - Fangzheng Securities notes that thermal power companies may experience a turnaround due to declining coal prices, particularly those located in regions with tight power supply and lower electricity price drops [2] - Hydropower generation is expected to improve steadily, with high dividend yields becoming more attractive as hydropower companies are less affected by market fluctuations [2] - Nuclear power generation has increased, and while the average on-grid price may decline due to market trading and long-term contract price reductions, the increase in generation volume is expected to offset price impacts [2]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 工业硅/多晶硅早报 走势评级： 工业硅：弱势震荡 多晶硅：震荡偏强 李艳婷—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03091846 投资咨询证号：Z0020513 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：liyanting@cindasc.com 徐浩然—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F03120971 联系电话：0571-28132578 邮箱：xuhaoran@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 下游需求预期走弱，多晶硅再度下调 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 16 日 报告内容摘要: ◆相关咨询：4 月 11 日，北碚西山坪光伏项目光伏组件采购中标候选人公 布，第一中标候选人为湖南红太阳新能源科技有限公司，投标报价 7920 万 元，单价 0.66 元/W；第二中标候选人为环晟光伏(江苏)有限公司，投标报 价 8400 万元，单价 0.7 元/W。本次组件招标范围为 120MWp 单晶硅双面 双玻太阳能光伏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have both positive and negative news, and it remains in a bottom - oscillating state. The price of industrial silicon has hit a new low, and it is currently in a stage of long - short game. The price of polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is in a state of bullish oscillation [1][2][3][4] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. In February, industrial silicon production decreased to 289,500 tons, a reduction of 10,000 tons from January. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, with Sichuan's production at only 3,000 tons. Some production capacities in the northwest region have resumed production recently, and the supply pressure of industrial silicon has become prominent again. The production cost in the southwest region has reached the annual high due to the high electricity cost during the dry season, but the cost support for silicon prices is limited [2] - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory decreased by 0.5 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 594,000 tons [2] Downstream Demand Side - In the polysilicon sector, production continued to decline in February, reaching about 90,000 tons. With the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon production has been continuously decreasing. However, with better downstream production scheduling recently, the probability of large - scale production cuts is small, and the demand for industrial silicon has stabilized marginally [2] - In the organic silicon DMC sector, some manufacturers plan to start the production - cut mode, and the production is expected to continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the alloy silicon sector, the price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the market, so the demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Transaction Logic - Industrial silicon production is still at a high level. The production of downstream polysilicon has stabilized, and the consumption of industrial silicon has also stabilized. The consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon has weakened, and the consumption by silicon - aluminum alloy has remained stable. High inventory suppresses the price of industrial silicon. Although the photovoltaic industry has an improvement expectation, it is currently in a long - short game stage [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable. The production of polysilicon in February decreased to 90,000 tons, which strongly supports the price. Under the premise of industry self - discipline, each polysilicon factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - The production of downstream silicon wafers shows signs of stabilization and recovery, and the price has increased slightly. The inventory of silicon wafers is in the destocking cycle, and the inventory is being removed quickly, which supports the price. The production scheduling of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which also supports the polysilicon market [3] Transaction Logic - The production of polysilicon has stabilized at the bottom, the downstream demand has an improvement expectation, and the inventory is still in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon to rise, and it shows a bullish oscillation [4]