反内卷持续推进，2026年有望扭亏。前期政策持续出台，从"规范价格行为"以及"落后产能有序退出"两 方面综整治反内卷。本次CPIA大会，能源局、工信部以及行业协会继续强调高位推进反内卷。12月12 日，北京光和谦成完成注册，"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地，该平台规划保留的硅料产能不会超 过150万吨。目前行业硅料近300万吨的产能，产能有望加速退出。在平台落地后，根据硅业分会数据， 大多数多晶硅企业均将新单报价上调至约6.5万元/吨以上，跳涨约20%，执行订单价格仍为前期所签51- 53元/公斤区间。此外，硅片回暖(M10L/G12R/G12硅片价1.2/1.25/1.5元/片)；电池松动(M10L/G12R/G12 电池价0.28/0.275/0.28元/W报涨到0.3元/W)，银价新高推升成本；组件维稳(常规0.63-0.66元/W，高功率 0.67-0.7元/W)，年底国内外需求暂歇(国内项目尾声+海外双旦)。该行认为光伏作为国内"反内卷"重点 行业之一，政策纾困或技术迭代有望加速供给出清，硅料引领盈利修复，2026年全行业有望扭亏， 26Q2或可见曙光。 BC、钙钛矿及铜浆加速规模化量产。该行认为 ...

光伏反内卷引领创新治理，新格局重塑产业逻辑 20251221 多晶硅收储平台由主要企业持股，旨在通过协同控产稳定价格，已见期 货价格上涨，现货价格维持在 5 万元以上，但成交量有限，预计平台落 地后价格将明确修复，增强市场信心，并带动产业链价格修复。 海外市场缺电逻辑驱动光伏需求强劲，预计 2026 年需求良好；国内市 场明年装机量或下滑，但可能筑底，为后续复苏奠定基础。建议关注光 伏板块及其供给侧改革带来的盈利修复趋势。 数据中心领域关注 800 伏架构落地，以满足 AIGC 供电需求，该架构提 高功率密度并减少铜用量。重点关注固态变压器、固态断路器、高功率 PSU 等环节。 人形机器人领域，宇树科技发布应用商店，华为与纽泰格达成采购协议， 标志着应用端迈出步伐。供应链方面，关注新能源端精密加工企业和固 态电池方向。 固态电池方面，上汽全新 MG4 搭载固态电池完成首批交付，QS 与全球 前十大汽车制造商签署联合开发协议，产业链稳步推进，应关注新增设 备、新增材料及干法电极等技术环节。 摘要 固态电池也是我们坚定看好的方向。今年（2025 年）上汽全新 MG4 搭载固态 电池完成首批交付，而全球固态锂金属技 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 储能锂电淡季不淡、光伏反内卷持续推进【勘 误版】 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -8% -1% 6% 13% 20% 27% 34% 41% 48% 2024/12/23 2025/4/22 2025/8/20 2025/12/18 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《储能全球开花需求旺盛，AIDC 和人 形加速》 2025-12-14 《储能锂电淡季不淡、AIDC 和人形加 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 50 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 速》 ◼ 电气设备 9787 下跌 3.12%，表现弱于大盘。（本周，12 月 15 日-12 月 19 日），发电设备跌 3.77%，风电 跌 3 ...

经历近两年的严重供需错配和全产业链的"价格鏖战"，"短期逐利、堆砌产能没有出路"已成为行业的共 识。如何解决"赔本赚吆喝"的行业痛点并促成"反内卷"的执行和落地，亦成为光伏产业2025年工作的重 点。 临近年终，光伏"反内卷"迎来关键转折。12月12日晚间，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号发文称， 北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司（下称"光和谦成"）近日完成注册，标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶 硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。 据中国光伏行业协会表述，该平台旨在通过市场化、法治化的机制，通过"政府引导+行业协同+市场化 并购"的路径，探索整治全行业"内卷式"恶性竞争问题。从股权结构来看，通威集团（600438.SH）和协 鑫集团（协鑫科技主营硅料业务，03800.HK）成为光和谦成前两大股东，合计持股47.14%。 "举步维艰"的上半年 在"光伏行业2025年上半年发展回顾与下半年形势展望研讨会"上，中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华 用"举步维艰"四个字总结了2025年上半年光伏行业的境遇。 "全产业链各环节均陷入大面积亏损状态，亏损规模前所未有。"据王勃华彼时介绍，2025年一季度，仅 31家A股上市光伏主产业链 ...

经历近两年的严重供需错配和全产业链的"价格鏖战"，"短期逐利、堆砌产能没有出路"已成为行业的共识。如何解决"赔本赚吆喝"的行 业痛点并促成"反内卷"的执行和落地，亦成为光伏产业2025年工作的重点。 临近年终，光伏"反内卷"迎来关键转折。12月12日晚间，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号发文称，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司 （下称"光和谦成"）近日完成注册，标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。 据中国光伏行业协会表述，该平台旨在通过市场化、法治化的机制，通过"政府引导+行业协同+市场化并购"的路径，探索整治全行业"内 卷式"恶性竞争问题。从股权结构来看，通威集团（600438.SH）和协鑫集团（协鑫科技主营硅料业务，03800.HK）成为光和谦成前两大 股东，合计持股47.14%。 "举步维艰"的上半年 在"光伏行业2025年上半年发展回顾与下半年形势展望研讨会"上，中国光伏行业协会名誉理事长王勃华用"举步维艰"四个字总结了2025 年上半年光伏行业的境遇。 "全产业链各环节均陷入大面积亏损状态，亏损规模前所未有。"据王勃华彼时介绍，2025年一季度，仅31家A股上市光伏主产业链企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) has dropped by 3.96%, trading at 7.03 HKD [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) has decreased by 3.33%, trading at 2.9 HKD [1] - Flat Glass Group (06865) has fallen by 2.64%, trading at 9.57 HKD [1] - Fuyao Glass (03606) has seen a decline of 1.73%, trading at 65.2 HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Photovoltaic Association has confirmed "Guanghe Qiancheng" as a capacity reserve platform [1] - Major photovoltaic companies are rumored to inject approximately 30 billion CNY into capacity reserve efforts [1] - Despite initial expectations of 70 billion CNY, the actual amount is likely to be significantly lower, marking a shift towards practical measures in addressing industry challenges [1] Group 3: Financial Metrics - According to Dongzheng Futures, the gross profit margin in the photovoltaic glass industry has further declined, currently at approximately -13.56% [1] - Rising costs due to the implementation of winter gas prices are contributing to increased financial strain, while photovoltaic glass prices continue to decrease [1] - The overall industry is facing heightened losses due to a significant mismatch between supply and demand, with short-term downward pressure on photovoltaic glass prices expected to persist [1]

Group 1 - The photovoltaic stocks have weakened again, with New Special Energy down 3.96% to HKD 7.03, Xinyi Solar down 3.33% to HKD 2.9, Flat Glass Group down 2.64% to HKD 9.57, and Fuyao Glass down 1.73% to HKD 65.2 [1] - The Photovoltaic Association confirmed "Guanghe Qiancheng" as the capacity reserve platform, with rumors suggesting that major photovoltaic companies will inject approximately CNY 30 billion to initiate capacity reserve work [1] - After several months of market speculation, the platform's establishment marks the beginning of substantial efforts to address the photovoltaic industry's internal competition [1] Group 2 - The gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry has further declined, currently at approximately -13.56% [1] - The cost of natural gas is increasing as winter pricing is implemented, while the price of photovoltaic glass continues to decrease, leading to greater industry losses [1] - Due to a significant lack of downstream orders, there is a considerable supply-demand gap in the industry, indicating continued downward pressure on photovoltaic glass prices in the short term [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The establishment of a silicon material storage platform company is seen as a significant step towards addressing the "involution" competition in the photovoltaic industry [5][28] - The development of deep-sea wind power in Guangdong is expected to accelerate, with the establishment of Shenzhen Energy's marine energy company indicating progress in offshore wind project development [5][10] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The establishment of Shenzhen Energy's marine energy company aims to develop 3-5 offshore wind projects in Guangdong, signaling a boost in the region's offshore wind development [5][10] - The wind power index increased by 1.35%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.42 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 25.32 times [4][11] Photovoltaics - The newly formed Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has a registered capital of 30 billion yuan, marking the launch of a long-anticipated "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" [5][28] - The establishment of this platform is viewed as a key measure to mitigate the competitive pressures within the photovoltaic sector [5][28] Energy Storage & Hydrogen Energy - Energy storage facilities have been included in the REITs project list, providing a new exit strategy for operators and addressing the challenges of large investment scales and long recovery periods [6] - The report recommends investments in domestic and international large-scale storage, highlighting companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Shanghai Electric Power Equipment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the domestic solar installation in China is expected to reach 290 GW in 2025, influenced by policy changes, while the global solar installation is projected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East and India [1][2]. Demand - Domestic solar installations from January to October 2025 are projected at 252.87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with an expected total of 290 GW for the year [2] - In the overseas market, the US and Europe are expected to add 50 GW and 70 GW respectively in 2025, maintaining year-on-year stability [2] - Emerging markets, especially in the Middle East and India, are anticipated to contribute significantly to growth, with projections of 28 GW and 31 GW respectively, representing increases of 87% and 29% [2] - Global new solar installations are expected to reach 599 GW in 2025, an 11% increase, but will slightly decline to 588 GW in 2026 due to a decrease in domestic installations [2] Supply - The industry is expected to see a halt in capacity expansion for silicon wafers and modules starting in 2026, which may alleviate the current oversupply situation [3] - Companies are facing profitability pressures, with a focus on cash flow quality and debt structure becoming more critical than profits [3] - A joint storage platform established by leading silicon material companies aims to address the issues of oversupply and price discrepancies in the industry [3] Industry Chain - The silicon material industry is projected to have a total capacity of approximately 3 million tons by the end of 2025, with current operating rates at 37% [4] - Silicon material prices have rebounded to around 50 yuan, with profit margins expected to recover in 2026 [4] - The module prices have seen a cumulative decline of over 60% since their peak in 2023, but leading companies are experiencing a narrowing of margin declines [4] - The inverter market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in large-scale and commercial storage [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-growth areas such as inverters and mounting systems, with specific companies highlighted for their strong market positions [5][6] - Beneficiaries of supply-side reforms and cost advantages include leading silicon material companies and strong channel advantage module manufacturers [5][6] - New technology leaders in materials and perovskite solar cells are also recommended for investment consideration [6]

需求：全球装机持续增长，中国装机高位回落。2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87GW，同比+39%，整体装机处于高位，预计全年装机 290GW，26年装机215GW，同降26%。海外市场，预计25年美国/欧洲新增装机50/70GW，同比持平，后续保持15-21%稳定增长态势。新兴市场贡献较多 增量，尤其是中东及印度国家项目规划推动，装机增速或超预期，预计25年分别达28/31GW，同增87%/29%。我们预计2025年全球新增光伏装机 599GW，同增11%，预计2026年全球新增光伏装机588GW，同减2%，受国内装机有所回落所致。 供给：反内卷陆续起效，价格逐步回升 1）各环节产能扩张停止，过剩情况有望缓解：随着行业反内卷的推进，我们预计26年起硅片、组件等环节产能扩 张将停止，甚至将出现减产，供需过剩有望改善。2）企业盈利承压，看好开工率温和回升：组件、电池、硅片环节普遍亏损，行业仍处去库与资金紧平 衡阶段，现金流质量与负债结构成为比利润更关键的因素；开工率方面，当前排产仍处底部区间，但在硅料端产能出清、自律减产带动下，行业有望在淡 季过后迎来排产的温和回升。3）头部企业建立共同体，推 ...