Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to announce an increase of 410,000 barrels per day in June for the second consecutive month [1] - The firm maintains its price forecast for Brent crude at $63 and WTI at $59 for the remainder of 2025, with expectations of $58 and $55 respectively for 2026 [1] - A global economic slowdown or a complete reversal of OPEC+'s voluntary production cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day could push Brent crude prices into the $40 range by 2026, with extreme scenarios potentially seeing prices below $40 [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that Iranian supply will continue to see a moderate decline starting from the second half of 2025 [1]

高盛：继续估计全球经济放缓或欧佩克+自愿减产220万桶/日的计划完全逆转，可能会在2026年将布伦 特原油价格推至40美元的区间，在不太可能出现的极端情况下，布伦特原油价格将低于40美元。 ...

Market Overview - Tin prices have shown strong performance, rising over 10% year-to-date, but faced pressure following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US in early April [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price reached a nearly three-year high of $38,395 per ton on April 2, before sharply declining to $28,925 per ton by April 9, marking a nearly 20% drop within a week [2] - Despite recent volatility, tin prices continue to outperform other metals, supported by ongoing supply challenges [2] Supply Dynamics - LME tin inventories have decreased by over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a low of 2,810 tons by the end of April, the lowest level since June 2023 [2] - In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 70% this year, reaching nearly 9,000 tons, the highest level since September of the previous year [2] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in February increased over 100% month-on-month to 3,670 tons, driven by higher demand from major buyers and increased exports to other Asian markets [3][4] Import Challenges - Myanmar's ongoing issues continue to pressure tin ore imports for major consuming countries, with China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in March 2025 dropping 64% year-on-year to 8,322.55 tons [5] - The cumulative import volume for January to March 2025 was 26,900 tons, reflecting a 55% year-on-year decline [5] - Although there are hopes for supply recovery following a recent meeting by Wa State authorities to outline new mining and processing licensing procedures, the timeline remains uncertain [6] Consumption Trends - Global refined tin consumption has started strong this year, with an estimated 8% year-on-year growth in the first two months, driven by robust demand from countries like India and Japan [8] - However, potential risks to domestic and export-driven demand may arise from US tariffs, which could dampen economic momentum [9] Production Outlook - The mining ban in Myanmar is expected to end soon, but the restart of operations faces delays and rising costs, with a recent meeting discussing new mining license applications [10] - Alphamin Resources announced a phased restart of its Bisie mine, which accounts for about 6% of global supply, but has lowered its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to increased anti-government activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - European blue-chip companies Unilever and Nestle reported first-quarter sales exceeding market expectations after significantly raising prices to offset soaring commodity costs. Both companies warned that global consumers would bear a substantial portion of these costs due to escalating trade tensions and rising commodity prices [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Unilever and Nestle experienced a rebound in sales after losing market share during the pandemic due to inflation, with both companies indicating that they are raising prices selectively while maintaining a focus on consumer response in a competitive environment [1][2]. - Nestle's CEO noted that consumer confidence is evidently weak globally, not just in the U.S., and that significant price increases have occurred in certain markets, with some reaching double digits [1][2]. - Unilever's sales in emerging markets, which account for nearly 60% of its revenue, showed unexpected weakness, relying more on price increases than volume growth [4][5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The U.S. retail sector has underperformed since April, with consumer confidence at its lowest since June 2022, driven by uncertainties from trade policies and inflation concerns [3]. - High inflation and interest rates in Latin America have suppressed consumer demand, leading to negative sales growth in countries like Mexico and Argentina for Unilever [4][5]. - Both companies reiterated their outlook for improved sales growth despite the challenges, with Unilever expecting a slight increase in its operating profit margin compared to 2024 levels [5]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment surveys indicate a significant decline in confidence, with expectations of worsening financial conditions and increased unemployment fears among respondents [3]. - The ongoing pressure on consumers is acknowledged by Unilever's CEO, who mentioned that price increases are a last resort to protect profit margins [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rebound of emerging markets can continue as long as the upcoming global economic slowdown has a relatively small impact on them [1] - There is a concern that the eventual economic slowdown will affect emerging markets [1]

点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 摩根大通将其对台积电CoWoS先进封装技术在未来两年的消费预期分别下调了7%和3%，理由是来自亚马逊自研AI芯片 的需求减少，以及基于宏观经济的不确定性。摩根大通预测，受关税和全球经济放缓的影响，台积电管理层可能将2025 财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。 硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 此外，亚马逊Trainium芯片被外部客户采用的前景有限。摩根大通现在预期，未来两年，下一代Trainium 项目的生命周期单位仅增长5-10%，市场可能会对亚马逊的定制芯片（ASIC）项目持更为谨慎的态度。 尽管如此，摩根大通预测， 2025年台积电CoWoS的整体需求仍预计增长107%，2026年继续保持37%的 增长，这主要得益于英伟达的强劲需求、ASIC项目增加（尤其是博通和联发科）以及苹果WMCM芯片封 装业务的启动。 01 英伟达仍是CoWos最大客户 但增长预期趋于理性 报告预计，台积电的CoWoS产能将在2025年继续保持紧张，但到2026年可能会达到供需平衡。 英伟达继续是CoWoS-L需求的主要驱动力，大摩预计，该公司将获得足够的CoWoS分配，以在2025年生 产 ...