我们尚未看到关税对通胀产生重大冲击。 可能最早在7月会议上就降息。 重要的是要忽略关税对通胀的影响。 美联储理事Waller：我认为我们无需再等待太久就可以降息。 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 6 月 FOMC：联储等待关税影响显现 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 6 月 19 日（周四）凌晨，联储如期按兵不动，基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%，增长预测下调、通胀和失业率预测上调，2025 年维持 2 次降 息指引，但 2026 年降至 1 次。决议声明删除了委员会"认为失业率和通胀 上升风险增加"的表述；将经济前景不确定性的判断由"进一步上行"调整 为"有所回落但维持高位"。虽然近期就业数据有所降温，通胀整体偏弱， 不确定性也有所回落，但鲍威尔强调联储决策是前瞻性的（forward looking），关税预计将在夏季更明显向通胀传导，因而继续按兵不动，观察 后续经济数据后再决定是否降息。本次会议整体符合预期，市场变动不大。 截至北京时间凌晨 4:00，相较于会前，市场预期 2025 年、2026 年累计降 息幅度分别上升 3bp、下降 1bp 至 48bp、66bp；2 年期美债收益率基本持 平于 3.93%，10 年期美债收益率上行 2bp 至 4.38%；美元指数上涨 0.3% 至 99；标普 500 下跌 0.1%；黄金下跌 0 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts in June, aligning with market expectations[1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, indicating a potential rise in stagflation risk[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was raised to 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation rate expectation was increased to 3.1%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The number of Federal Reserve members predicting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7, indicating growing internal disagreement on rate cuts[3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a 50 basis point cut forecast for this year, with potential adjustments in future meetings[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become evident in the inflation data from July-August[3] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - Following the June talks, the U.S. plans to maintain an average tariff of 55% on Chinese goods, while China will ease rare earth export controls[4] - There is uncertainty regarding the permanence of these trade commitments, as no clear trade agreement has been established[4] - The potential for a comprehensive implementation of personalized tariffs poses a downside risk to the U.S. economy[5]

北京时间周四（6月19日）凌晨， 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变，这是该行连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 美联储6月宣布继续"按兵不动",将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变、与市场预期一 致,这也是美联储连续第四次会议维持利率不变。 0 美联储决议声明变动 变动向 变动前 经济前景有关的 | 全部落 | 经济前景有关的 不确定性进一步 FFIEL 不确定性已经减 增加 弱,但仍然偏高。 3 2.5 2.5 2 1 75 1.5 1 0 25 0.5 0 数据来源:美联储 委员会关注其双 重使命(即就业与 物价稳定)面临 的双向风险,并 判定" 失业率上 升和通胀上升的 风险已经增加"。 失业率近几个月 已经企稳于低位。 删除后半句 -- 并判定" 失业率 上升和通胀上升 的风险已经增加"。 失业率仍低。 内部设置 全票通过。堪萨 斯联储主席施密 德出席会议并投 票,卡什卡利没 有再以替补成员 身份在本次会议 中投票。 | 点阵图 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, June 18, 2025 Figure 2. FOMC pa ...

在特朗普频繁向美联储施压降息之际，美国最新经济数据显示，通胀压力比预期缓和，而劳动力市场却 可能正在恶化。华尔街日报资深央行记者认为，这些因素共同增强了美联储降息的理由。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，周四，特朗普再次加大对美联储的施压力度，其措辞之激烈前所未见。他直接 称鲍威尔为"笨蛋"，并抛出了一个的数字：降息两个百分点每年可为美国节省6000亿美元利息支出。 同一天，华尔街日报资深央行记者Greg Ip在最新文章中提出，尽管特朗普政府实施的关税政策给美联 储带来了两难局面，但最新经济数据显示，关税对通胀影响并未如预期般显著，劳动力市场却出现裂 痕，这意味着美联储面临的风险天平将发生微妙但关键的转向——从担忧通胀抬头，转向关注经济需求 疲软。 Ip认为，尽管美联储下周会议不必立即行动，但政策制定者需要在前瞻指引和表态中承认风险正在转 移。目前利率水平仍比美联储官员认为的"中性"水平高出0.5-1.5个百分点，这种限制性立场只有在通胀 是唯一担忧时才合理。 关税并未推高通胀 Ip在文章中称，最新数据显示了一个令人困惑的现象：5月份美国财政部征收的关税收入比2月份增加约 150亿美元，相当于商品消费总支出的3%，但消 ...

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation rate unexpectedly remained below market expectations in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, matching forecasts, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [3] - Core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 2.9%, and a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.3% [3] - Economists and Federal Reserve officials are divided on when the impact of tariffs on inflation will fully materialize, with Goldman Sachs predicting a temporary rise in prices due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in internal debates regarding the inflation outlook, with some officials arguing that the impact of tariffs on prices may be more persistent [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating two rate cuts this year, particularly in September [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes adds pressure to the economic outlook, with expectations of more significant price increases in June and July [6]

新华财经纽约6月6日电（记者刘亚南）美国最新非农就业数据提振了市场信心，纽约股市三大股指6日 显著高开，盘中整体维持窄幅盘整，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均明显上涨，标普500指数再次回到今年2 月6000点以上水平。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨443.13点，收于42762.87点，涨幅为1.05%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨61.06点，收于6000.36点，涨幅为1.03%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨231.50点， 收于19529.95点，涨幅为1.20%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块全线上涨。能源板块和通信服务板块分别以1.98%和1.88%涨幅领 涨，必需消费品板块涨幅最小，为0.18%。 美国劳工部6日早间公布的数据显示，今年5月美国失业率维持在4.2%不变，非农业部门新增就业岗位 为13.9万，低于前一个月向下修订后的14.7万，但高于市场共识预计的12.9万。 由于市场担忧的就业市场显著疲软尚未出现，最新就业数据提振市场人气，投资者选择继续买入。 Ameriprise金融公司首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林贝内（Anthony Saglimbene）表示，当日的非农就业 数 ...

金十数据6月3日讯，在判断关税对通胀的影响时，标准的经济模型是直截了当的：这应该是一次性的价 格上涨。但美联储博斯蒂克周二表示，特朗普政府关税的不确定性和快速变化的政策使得情况比教科书 所暗示的更加复杂，也不那么明确。"教科书上关于关税的概念是……关税只征收一次，每个人都知道 它是什么。""这不是我们过去几个月所处的环境，所以有一个问题是，人们将如何反应——接受一项持 续很长时间的关税政策变化。"博斯蒂克说，他主要担心的是，这种长期的、渐进式的关税政策转变会 如何影响商业和消费者的行为。如果企业和家庭开始预期持续的关税调整，可能会导致更持久的通胀压 力。 博斯蒂克回应：为什么美联储不能假设关税引起的通胀是一次性影响？ ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the economy and labor market face downside risks, while inflation is under upward pressure [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may become most pronounced in the second half of 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing potential downturns, which could affect overall growth and stability [1] - The labor market is also showing signs of vulnerability, suggesting a need for caution in economic forecasts [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflationary pressures are expected to rise, indicating challenges for monetary policy and consumer purchasing power [1] - The timing of tariff impacts on inflation suggests a delayed effect, with significant implications for economic planning and strategy in 2025 [1]