证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 齐鲁银行(601665) | 增持 | | --- | | 投资评级 | 上次评级 增持 [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 齐鲁银行 2025 半年度业绩快报点评： 营收利润稳步增长，资产质量持续优 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 齐鲁银行 2025 三季报点评：息差提升， 资本实力持续增强 ➢ 资产规模稳步扩容，迈上 8000 亿新台阶。截至 2025 年末，齐鲁银行 资产总额达 8043.81 亿元，同比增长 16.65%，年内新增超 1100 亿元。 存贷规模同步增长，存款总额 4895.31 亿元、贷款总额 3828.34 亿元， 分别同比增长 11.37%、13.55%，增速分别较 2024 年末+0.96pct、 +1.24pct。齐鲁银行保持稳增长、调结构、促转型、提质效的发展模式， 信贷投放对接山东区域实体经济需求，彰显本土金融主力军作用。此外， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trend of small and medium-sized banks in China adjusting their deposit interest rates, with some banks increasing rates while others are decreasing them [2][3][5]. - Several banks, such as Hunan Xinhang Rural Commercial Bank and Shanxi Linxian Rural Commercial Bank, have announced increases in deposit rates for various terms, with some products offering rates above 2% [4][6][10]. - Despite the increases, the overall trend shows a mixed response among banks, with some opting to lower rates due to pressures on net interest margins and the need to stabilize funding costs [3][8][9]. Group 2 - Specific examples of rate adjustments include Inner Mongolia Rural Commercial Bank offering a 1.4% rate for a one-year deposit, and Shanxi Zezhou Rural Commercial Bank offering rates of 1.45%, 1.5%, and 1.75% for one, two, and three-year deposits respectively [4][6]. - Some banks are launching special deposit products for the New Year, emphasizing limited availability and promotional rates, such as the 1.65% rate for one-year deposits from Laishang Bank [12]. - The article highlights that while most banks have rates in the "1" range, there are still products with rates in the "2" range, indicating a competitive market for attracting deposits [10][11].

每经记者｜李玉雯 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈星 随着春节脚步临近，多地中小银行近期宣布上调存款利率，例如湖南新晃农商行、陕西镇巴农商行、山西临县农商行等，均在1月下旬将部分期限存款利 率上浮。不仅如此，部分银行还推出"限时专享"的新年专属存款产品。 不过，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，利率上调并非统一趋势，在市场利率下行的背景下，亦有部分银行近期选择下调各期限存款利率。 例如，山西泽州农商银行官微在1月14日称定期存款利率上浮，1年、2年、3年利率分别为1.45%、1.5%、1.75%。 1月23日，陕西镇巴农商银行宣布存款利率上浮，6个月期为1.15%，1年期为1.4%。 1月21日，湖南新晃农商行公告存款利率上调，称"开门红系列活动火热进行中"，3万元及以上整存整取利率为1年1.3%、2年1.4%、3年1.75%。大额存单1 年1.4%、3年1.8%。 1月22日，山西临县农商行公告存款利率上浮，1年1.25%、3年1.55%。调整后该行定期存款呈现长短期利率倒挂，其中2年期1.1%，不及1年期利率水平， 5年期利率更低，仅1%，与半年期利率相同。 有业内人士指出，考虑到净息差处于低位并且仍然有下行压力，银行需要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a strong performance, with significant increases in stock prices and positive sentiment regarding credit issuance during the marketing peak season [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Bank Index (399986) rose by 1.09%, with notable increases in individual bank stocks such as Ningbo Bank (002142) up by 3.16%, Xiamen Bank (601187) up by 2.72%, and Qingdao Bank (002948) up by 2.05% [1] - The Bank ETF Huaxia (515020) increased by 0.92%, with the latest price reported at 1.65 yuan [1] Group 2: Credit Issuance and Marketing Season - The current period is identified as the marketing peak season for banks, with institutions actively researching the credit issuance situation during this time [1] - Several banks reported that credit issuance during the marketing peak is better than the same period in 2025, indicating a positive trend in corporate credit issuance [1] Group 3: Asset Quality and Net Interest Margin - Institutions are focusing on banks' asset allocation and liability costs, with net interest margin being a key indicator of the banking sector's operational status [1] - Banks indicated that asset quality is expected to remain stable in 2026 through measures such as improving the quality of new loans and increasing the disposal of non-performing loans [1] - A researcher from Postal Savings Bank (601658) noted that improvements in liability costs will support a slowdown in the pressure on net interest margins for listed banks in 2026, suggesting a potential stabilization in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend among small and medium-sized banks in China shows a mixed approach to deposit interest rates, with some banks increasing rates while others are reducing them in response to market conditions and internal financial pressures [1][4][11] Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several small and medium-sized banks, such as Hunan Xinhang Rural Commercial Bank and Shanxi Lin County Rural Commercial Bank, have announced increases in deposit rates for certain terms as part of their New Year promotional activities [1][10] - Despite the increases, some banks have opted to lower their deposit rates, reflecting a lack of uniformity in the market amid declining overall interest rates [1][11] - For instance, Shanxi Changzhi Lidou Rural Commercial Bank reduced its rates for various terms, with 3-month and 6-month rates down by 20 basis points [11][12] Group 2: Specific Rate Examples - Hunan Xinhang Rural Commercial Bank's new rates include 1.3% for 1-year deposits and 1.75% for 3-year deposits, while large-denomination certificates of deposit offer rates of 1.4% for 1 year and 1.8% for 3 years [2][10] - Shanxi Lin County Rural Commercial Bank's adjusted rates are 1.25% for 1 year and 1.55% for 3 years, with a notable rate inversion for the 2-year term at only 1.1% [2][10] - The Inner Mongolia Rural Commercial Bank's new year product offers a 1-year rate of 1.4% for deposits starting at 100 yuan and 1.45% for deposits starting at 200,000 yuan [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that banks are under pressure to manage their net interest margins, which are currently low, leading to a potential stabilization or slight decrease in deposit rates in the future [4][12] - The overall net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42%, remaining at historical lows as of the third quarter of 2025 [5][12] - Despite the prevalence of rates in the "1" range, some banks still offer products with rates above 2%, such as Ningbo Tongshang Bank and Guizhou Xifeng Rural Commercial Bank, which have rates of 2% and 2.05% respectively for 3-year deposits [6][13]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经长春2月3日电（记者王晓林）记者从中国人民银行吉林省分行获悉，该行在引导金融机构保持 净息差基本稳定的基础上，促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降。2025年，吉林省新发放企业贷款加权平均 利率3.78%，同比下降0.41个百分点。 中国人民银行吉林省分行货币政策处副处长陈亮表示，该行将继续强化利率政策执行与监督指导，持续 整治金融机构"内卷式"竞争，规范存贷款利率定价行为，稳定金融机构净息差，提升可持续经营能力； 引导各类经营主体综合融资成本稳中有降，为实体经济发展营造良好的融资环境。 ...

行 业 研 究 银行 2026 年 02 月 03 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 银行 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年初银行存贷形势更新与展望 —行业深度报告》-2026.1.26 《规模高增&收益承压，"存款+基金" 成配置主线—理财登 2025 年报解读》 《企业信贷超季节性增长，信贷投放 前置趋势或延续 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 2026 年净息差展望：筑底企稳 ——行业深度报告 刘呈祥（分析师） 朱晓云（分析师） liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790523060002 zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070010 理论估算 1.4%净息差支撑 6%左右的 RWA 增速 据我们测算，银行若保持 RWA 6%-7%的增速，理论净息差大约在 1.44%-1.57% 是底线水平，2025Q3 商业银行净息差为 1.42%，意味着银行资产扩张面临内生 资本补充的现实硬约束，"稳息差"仍然是 2026 年银行核心经 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Banking Sector - **Key Takeaways**: The recent conference and financial tour indicated a net positive outlook for Chinese banks, with improved net profit growth rates driven by recovery in net interest income (NII), positive fee growth, and stable asset quality [2][5][6]. Core Insights - **Profit Growth**: Banks are experiencing improved net profit growth rates, with SOE banks expressing greater optimism compared to Joint Stock Banks (JSBs) regarding revenue and profit growth trajectories [2][5]. - **NII Recovery**: A recovery in NII is expected, with banks anticipating positive net interest income growth in 2026, although some JSBs expect a decline [5][6]. - **Loan Growth**: Moderate increases in new loan volumes are anticipated, primarily driven by corporate lending focused on infrastructure and technology [6]. - **Fee Income Divergence**: SOE banks expect robust fee income growth, while JSBs foresee only slight positive growth due to weak consumption and regulatory pressures [6]. - **Investment Income**: Banks are managing their investment portfolios actively, with unrealized gains providing a buffer against future income fluctuations [6]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - **Dovish Monetary Policy**: The monetary policy remains dovish, with expectations of further cuts to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates [5]. - **Deposit Management**: Banks are focusing on managing high-rate time deposits maturing in 2026, with a projected retention rate of 90% due to clients' low risk appetite [5][6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - **Stable Asset Quality**: Asset quality is expected to remain stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) formation having peaked, particularly in the property sector [6]. - **Retail Loan Risks**: Increased pressure on retail loan asset quality is noted, with some banks experiencing elevated NPL formation [6]. Future Outlook - **Profit Growth Expectations**: SOE banks expect positive net profit growth in 2026, driven by NII growth and cost control, while some banks remain cautious due to external macroeconomic factors [6]. - **Capital Management Review**: One bank is reviewing its capital management policy, considering the balance between CET1 ratio, dividend payout, and return on equity (ROE) [6]. Investment Strategy - **Insurance Sector Insights**: A leading insurance company plans to maintain a 30% allocation to equities for net new premiums in 2026, focusing on high-dividend stocks and Hong Kong equities [7]. Company Recommendations - **Top Picks**: Among SOE banks, the top picks include China Construction Bank (CCB-H), Bank of China (BOC-H), and Bank of Communications (Bocom-A/H) [2]. Additional Notes - **Market Performance**: While the banking sector is expected to see absolute share price upside in 2026, it may underperform the broader market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing institutional research on listed banks in January, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1][2][7]. Group 1: Institutional Research and Credit Issuance - A total of 373 institutions conducted research on 11 A-share listed banks, with 49 research instances recorded by January 31 [1][7]. - The banks under review include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, and others, with Nanjing Bank being the most favored, receiving 76 institutional inquiries [2][8]. - Institutions are particularly focused on credit issuance during the marketing peak, with many banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025 [2][8]. - Key areas for credit issuance include manufacturing, infrastructure construction, and green low-carbon transformation projects [3][9]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin Stability - Net interest margin (NIM) is a critical indicator of banking performance, with banks focusing on stabilizing NIM through asset and liability management [4][11]. - Shanghai Bank anticipates a slight decline in NIM due to the expected decrease in loan market quotation rates (LPR) and competitive pressures on deposit pricing [11][12]. - Qilu Bank is optimizing its asset portfolio and enhancing low-cost deposit acquisition to stabilize NIM [11][12]. Group 3: Bond Investment Strategies - The bond market has been volatile since 2025, affecting the bond investment returns of regional small and medium-sized banks [6][12]. - Shanghai Bank expects bond rates to remain in a fluctuating range in 2026, with limited potential for a trend reversal [6][13]. - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investment for asset allocation while employing risk management strategies, including the use of derivatives [6][13]. Group 4: Asset Quality Management - Banks are implementing measures to maintain stable asset quality, including improving the quality of new loans and increasing efforts to manage non-performing loans [6][13].

Group 1 - In January, 11 A-share listed banks were surveyed by 373 institutions, with a total of 49 survey instances, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1] - The surveyed banks include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Suzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Xiamen Bank, Hu Nong Bank, Qing Nong Bank, and Zijin Bank, with six banks experiencing stock price increases, led by Qingdao Bank with over 16% growth [2] - Nanjing Bank was the most favored by institutions, receiving 76 surveys, while Shanghai Bank received 75 surveys, indicating strong interest in their credit issuance during the marketing peak [2] Group 2 - The focus of the credit issuance during the peak marketing season is on corporate credit, with banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025, emphasizing manufacturing, infrastructure, and green transformation projects [2][3] - Shanghai Bank anticipates a continued decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2026, which may lead to a slight decrease in net interest margin due to competitive market factors [4] - Qilu Bank aims to stabilize its net interest margin by optimizing asset management and expanding low-cost deposits while managing liabilities effectively [4] Group 3 - The overall pressure on net interest margin for listed banks is expected to ease in 2026, with a narrowing decline anticipated, supported by improvements in funding costs [5] - Shanghai Bank predicts that bond yields will continue to fluctuate within a range in 2026, with low likelihood of a trend reversal [5] - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investments primarily for allocation, while also employing advanced technologies for trading and risk management [6]