责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况适究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/7/11 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4750 | 4735 | (15.00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4347 | 4374 | 27.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from New Century Futures is that pulp prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate within a narrow range [1] - New Lake Futures suggests that short-term pulp prices may fluctuate with macroeconomic sentiment [1] - The recent decline in pulp prices is attributed to a shift in market sentiment following the US-China talks, with a notable drop in the prices of both softwood and hardwood pulp [1] Group 2 - The latest market prices for softwood pulp have decreased by 20-50 yuan per ton, while hardwood pulp prices have also seen a similar reduction [1] - The profitability of the paper industry is currently low, leading to increased inventory levels at paper mills and a reduced willingness to accept high pulp prices [1] - On the supply side, there has been a slight decrease in spot prices, while port inventory has decreased by 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the China-US call, the commodity sentiment has improved, and the profit - taking of short positions in most under - performing commodities may lead to a market rebound. Industrial silicon will be affected to some extent, and there may be abnormal fluctuations in the disk due to short - term position reduction. The fundamentals change little, with the futures price oscillating and the spot price stabilizing [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak. With the short - term improvement in commodity sentiment and more capital games, the disk may maintain a wide - range oscillation [4][6]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2507 opened at 7200 yuan/ton and closed at 7135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 183,965 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 6, 2025 was 61,309 lots, a decrease of 494 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11300 - 11600 yuan/ton. The average price this week decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The opening quotation of DMC on the online mall of Shandong monomer enterprises was 11400 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with last week. The DMC quotations of other domestic monomer enterprises were 11500 - 11600 yuan/ton. The local transaction price in the domestic DMC market declined, terminal demand weakened, and some enterprises with relatively high inventory levels slightly lowered prices to attract orders [2]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 5, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 34,810 yuan/ton and closing at 34,540 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.27% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 65,802 lots (67,873 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 127,429 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The quotations of polysilicon re - feedstock were 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 269,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW, a month - on - month increase of 7.80%, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.85%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67% [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 yuan/piece [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W (down 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm were 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm were 0.69 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The one - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-05 受商品情绪影响，工业硅多晶硅盘面反弹 2025-06-04，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7150元/吨，最后收于7280元/吨，较前一日结算变化（205） 元/吨，变化（2.90）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓180328手，2025-06-05仓单总数为61803手，较前一日变化 -887手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（-50）元/吨；421#硅在8500-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 四川、上海地区部分硅价小幅走弱。西北、新疆硅价暂稳。97硅今日价格同样暂稳，现货成交情况有所好转。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，华北单体企业正式进入检修，本次 检修所有装置全部停车，预计检修时长15天，影响DMC产量4000吨左右。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格触底反弹，主要收到整体商品情绪好转，前期下跌较 ...