Core Insights - In June, Germany's industrial new orders decreased by 1% month-on-month, influenced by reduced demand in sectors such as the automotive industry [1] - Domestic new orders increased by 2.2%, while foreign new orders fell by 3% [1] - New orders from the Eurozone rose by 5.2%, but those from outside the Eurozone dropped by 7.8% [1] Industry Performance - The decline in new orders was primarily concentrated in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, which saw a significant drop of 23.1% [1] - The automotive industry experienced a decrease in new orders by 7.6%, while the metal products manufacturing sector saw a decline of 12.9% [1] - Conversely, the electrical equipment manufacturing sector reported a notable increase in new orders by 23.5% [1] Year-on-Year Comparison - Adjusted for working days, Germany's industrial new orders showed a year-on-year growth of 0.8% in June [1] Economic Context - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy indicated that ongoing global trade policies and geopolitical uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in industrial demand [1] - Although there was a slight improvement in export expectations for July, the anticipated long-term high tariffs on exports to the U.S. may continue to negatively impact Germany's industrial economy due to weak foreign demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ball Corporation reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings driven by strong demand for aluminum cans in North America and Europe, and raised its annual profit guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 revenue increased by 7.8% to $3.34 billion, surpassing market expectations of $3.12 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.90, exceeding the anticipated $0.87 [1] - Global shipments of aluminum packaging products grew by 4.1%, up from 2.6% in the previous three months [1] Group 2: Market Demand - Increased demand from packaged food companies is attributed to consumers opting for canned foods and beverages amid high inflation [1] - Beverage packaging sales in North and Central America rose from $1.47 billion to $1.61 billion year-over-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company expects comparable earnings to grow by 12% to 15% by 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 11% to 14% [1] Group 4: Cost Management - Tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised input costs for companies like Ball [2] - The company believes the direct impact of announced tariffs is manageable and is working closely with customers to mitigate the effects of aluminum price fluctuations [2] - The CEO indicated that the company is strictly controlling costs in light of potential geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility in the second half of the year [2]

如果一位投资者在看完对于市场交易逻辑影响重大的新闻后立刻查看自己的投资组合，或许会非常希望 自己的持仓之中不要有将受到该事件负面影响的股票或其他资产。当美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击后油 价飙升，而4月初特朗普政府重磅宣布的面向全球激进对等关税也曾令股市大幅下挫。然而在每一种情 形中，市场都在经历吸收并定价冲击、趋于稳定并最终反弹。美国经济增长预期总体仍然保持韧性，像 英伟达、博通以及微软这样的受益于史无前例AI热潮的科技股甚至屡次创下历史新高。 即便是经验丰富的华尔街金融市场分析师，也难以精准预测任何一项事件具体在何时带来显著影响以及 将会造成具体持续多久的市场扰动。不过，随着时间推移，某些市场规律开始浮现。 来自高盛的华尔街最顶级分析师们详细汇总并研究了自2008年全球金融危机以来最重要的地缘政治事 件，包括阿拉伯之春、俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的两次局部战争、新冠疫情以及当下的全球贸易争端。 该机构主要通过追踪事件前五天与后十天的全球核心资产变动——即股票、货币、债券和大宗商品在此 期间整体价格水平的变化来衡量具体影响。这一分析让我们对哪些类型冲击通常会对市场产生重大且持 久的影响以及哪些冲击往往不足为惧有了清晰认 ...

全球黄金需求在价格屡创新高的背景下持续强劲增长。 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元人民币，创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现。这一表现主要由全球 贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治动荡以及金价上涨推动，投资者大举涌入这一避险资产。 全球黄金ETF需求连续第二个季度大幅增长，成为推动整体需求的重要因素。金条和金币投资者也加入 其中，被上涨的价格和黄金的避险属性所吸引。 全球央行在第二季放缓购金步伐，购买量创2022年以来的最低水平。尽管如此，世界黄金协会认为，地 缘政治和经济的不确定性，会促使央行继续购金。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示："要真正看空黄金，你必须认为主要地缘政治领导人会 突然变得理智和合作。但世界对我来说似乎过于两极分化了。" 央行购金步伐放缓但仍处高位 世界黄金协会周四发布的季度报告显示，二季度全球黄金总需求同比增长3%至1249吨，价值跃升45% 至创纪录的1320亿美元。 中国市场引领ETF流入潮 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元(合65亿美元，61吨)，与金条和金币需求类似，中国市场黄金ETF 流入主要集中在4月份。上半年中国市场黄金ETF总流入达631亿元(合88亿 ...

全球黄金需求在价格屡创新高的背景下持续强劲增长。 世界黄金协会周四发布的季度报告显示，二季度全球黄金总需求同比增长3%至1249吨，价值跃升45% 至创纪录的1320亿美元。 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元人民币，创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现。这一表现主要由全球 贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治动荡以及金价上涨推动，投资者大举涌入这一避险资产。 全球黄金ETF需求连续第二个季度大幅增长，成为推动整体需求的重要因素。金条和金币投资者也加入 其中，被上涨的价格和黄金的避险属性所吸引。 全球央行在第二季放缓购金步伐，购买量创2022年以来的最低水平。尽管如此，世界黄金协会认为，地 缘政治和经济的不确定性，会促使央行继续购金。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示："要真正看空黄金，你必须认为主要地缘政治领导人会 突然变得理智和合作。但世界对我来说似乎过于两极分化了。" 央行购金步伐放缓但仍处高位 世界黄金协会表示，各国央行在二季度继续购买黄金，为全球官方黄金储备增加166吨，但速度较以往 有所放缓。该组织表示，购买量处于2022年以来的最低水平，但仍比2010年至2021年的季度平均水平高 出41% ...

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) concluded on July 20 in Beijing, providing a significant platform for deepening supply chain cooperation between Australian and Chinese enterprises [1][2] - The event saw a notable increase in the number of participating member companies from the Australia-China Chamber of Commerce, indicating a heightened recognition of the expo's value [1] - According to a report by the Australia-China Chamber of Commerce, 67% of Australian companies view China as one of their top three global investment destinations, with nearly half increasing their investments in China over the past year [1] Group 1 - The Chain Expo serves as an excellent platform for member companies to connect with upstream and downstream suppliers and customers, as well as to explore emerging enterprises and market opportunities [1] - The confidence of Australian companies in the Chinese market is driven by recognition of its scale and consumption potential, as well as positive expectations regarding the policy environment and cooperation prospects [2] - Australia is a key supplier of clean energy raw materials, possessing abundant resources such as lithium, nickel, and rare earths, which complements China's strengths in green manufacturing and smart equipment [2] Group 2 - The recent visit of Australian Prime Minister Albanese to China signals a positive development in bilateral relations, moving from stabilization to deeper cooperation [2] - There is significant potential for collaboration in clean energy, modern agriculture, and educational technology, which will not only aid Australia's economic transformation but also enhance the ability of both countries to address uncertainties [2] - The Chinese market will continue to play an indispensable role in the global strategies of Australian enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - ASML warns that it may not achieve growth by 2026 due to the impact of US tariff policies [1] Company Summary - ASML's CEO, Peter Wennink, stated that the company is still striving for growth by 2026 but cannot guarantee it at this time [1] - The company is increasingly affected by potential US trade restrictions, similar to the entire semiconductor industry [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties have intensified, particularly after April, leading to price increases for ASML's machines and the chips they produce [1] - ASML focuses on high-end lithography machine production and is a global leader in semiconductor equipment maintenance and refurbishment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The European chemical industry is facing significant challenges due to rising energy costs and taxes, leading to major companies taking actions to minimize losses as they approach 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Forecasts - Covestro has lowered its EBITDA forecast for 2025 to between €700 million and €1.1 billion, down from a previous estimate of €1 billion to €1.4 billion, reflecting ongoing global economic weakness [2][3]. - BASF has revised its EBITDA forecast for 2025 to between €7.3 billion and €7.7 billion, down from an earlier projection of €8 billion to €8.4 billion, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [4][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The anticipated growth in chemical market demand for 2025 is expected to be below previous expectations, compounded by an oversupply of products in the market, which continues to pressure profit margins [4][9]. - A significant factor affecting the market is the announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports to the U.S. starting August 1, 2025, which is expected to create substantial market uncertainty [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - BASF's projected sales for Q2 2025 are expected to decline by 2.1% to €15.77 billion, compared to €16.11 billion in Q2 2024 [8]. - The company's EBITDA for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be €1.77 billion, down from €1.96 billion in the same period last year [9]. - BASF's net profit is expected to reach €80 million, a significant drop of 81.4% compared to €430 million in Q2 2024 [11]. Group 4: Strategic Moves - BASF has been divesting various business units, including its Brazilian decorative coatings business and wind farm stakes, as part of its strategy to streamline operations [12]. - The company is increasing its investment in the Chinese market, indicating a strategic pivot towards regions with growth potential [13][14].

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of uncertain economic outlook potentially leading to zero interest rate risks [1] - Fed Chair candidate Walsh suggests interest rates should be lowered further [1] Group 2: Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB council member Centeno states that the timing and extent of further rate cuts are difficult to determine [2] - Fitch predicts Japan's debt trajectory will rise again by the end of this century [2] - ECB indicates that risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Japanese Prime Minister expresses regret over US tariff information and emphasizes ongoing negotiations [2] - South Korean Trade Minister states that a three-week extension of tariff suspension is insufficient and negotiations must accelerate [2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa announces agreement with US Commerce Secretary to actively participate in trade talks, prioritizing national interests [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly keeps the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait for more information to confirm sustainable inflation at 2.5% [2] - RBA Governor Bullock mentions a cautious and gradual easing stance is appropriate, with confidence in future rate cuts [2] - Australian Treasurer notes that the RBA's decision to maintain rates was not expected by millions of Australians or the market, clarifying future inflation and rate trajectories [2] Group 3: Other Developments - Emerging market ETFs see inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with China receiving the largest inflow [3] - The World Bank reports that Syria is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to cash shortages and broader disruptions in currency circulation [3] - Moody's maintains Israel's Baa1 rating while warning that conflict with Iran will increase fiscal pressure [3]