↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 晏云社 来源：雪球 1月29日，黄金价格经历了 " 冲高-跳水-反弹 " 的史诗级巨震 。 以下是结合最新情况 ， 对黄金股后续走势的深入分析 。 巨震全景与直接冲击 首先 ， 梳理一下本次巨震的具体情况及其对黄金股的直接影响 ： 1. 行情剧震 ： 从暴涨到闪崩 黄金 ： 一度逼近5600美元的历史新高 ， 随后急速跳水超5% ， 最低跌破5100美元 ， 日内振幅近500美元 ， 最终收盘跌约0.7% 。 白银 ： 波动更为剧烈 ， 从涨4%转为一度暴跌超8% 。 股市反应 ： A股贵金属板块大幅低开 。 美股黄金股也全线收跌 ， 盎格鲁黄金 、 纽蒙特矿业等龙头跌幅在3%-7% 。 2. 巨震核心原因 需求支撑 ： 世界黄金协会数据显示四季度全球央行继续净购金230吨 ， 机构如瑞银也维持看多 （ 目标6200美元/盎司 ） 。 市场普遍认为这是多重短期因素叠加共振的结果 ： 技术性获利了结 ： 年初至今涨幅巨大 （ 金价1月涨超24% ） ， 市场进入极端超买区间 ， 高 ...

尽管短期抛售压力增大，但地缘政治不确定性的持续发酵为黄金提供了逢低买盘的强劲支撑。美伊潜在 谈判目前陷入僵持，据华尔街日报报道，伊朗坚守其谈判底线，而美国则提高了协议条件标准。阿拉伯 国家如埃及、卡塔尔、阿曼和沙特的斡旋努力暂无成效，埃及外交部长与伊朗外长及特朗普特使的通话 未取得进展。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬强调，如果美国寻求谈判，必须停止挑衅行动，否则地区紧张将进一 步升级。 【技术分析】 摘要周五(1月30日)亚洲时段，现货黄金连续第二日遭遇大规模抛售，目前回落至5160美元一线，金价 自本月初以来已呈现抛物线式上涨，涨幅超过25%，并在过去两周左右连续创下一系列历史新高，前一 交易日一度创下5596.33美元的新高，而后遭遇滑铁卢。 周五(1月30日)亚洲时段，现货黄金连续第二日遭遇大规模抛售，目前回落至5160美元一线，金价自本 月初以来已呈现抛物线式上涨，涨幅超过25%，并在过去两周左右连续创下一系列历史新高，前一交易 日一度创下5596.33美元的新高，而后遭遇滑铁卢。 【要闻速递】 特朗普表示，俄罗斯总统普京同意一周内暂停对乌克兰首都基辅及其他城镇的空袭，以帮助乌方渡过严 寒天气。乌克兰总统泽连斯基 ...

1月30日，现货黄金周四一度飙升至5596.33美元/盎司的历史新高，但随后急转直下，一度下跌逾5%， 触及5104.98美元的盘中低点，最终收报5377.14美元/盎司。这种冲高回落的格局，主要源于投资者在创 纪录高位后的获利了结行为。美国政府再度停摆的担忧情绪有所降温，成为促发多头平仓的重要催化 剂。尽管短期抛售压力增大，但地缘政治不确定性的持续发酵仍为黄金提供了逢低买盘的强劲支撑。 黄金市场周四（1月29日）上演了一场惊心动魄的过山车行情，现货金价在触及历史高位后迅速回落， 但很快又收复大部分失地，这背后是多重因素交织的结果。从美国政府停摆担忧的缓解，到俄乌冲突的 短暂停火信号，再到美伊谈判的僵局和特朗普的利率呼吁，这些事件共同塑造了黄金的短期走势。尽管 多头获利了结一度引发抛售潮，但地缘政治不确定性和经济政策预期依然为金价提供了坚实支撑。周五 （1月30日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡走高，临盘最高5450附近，目前回撤震荡运行交投于5448美元附 近； 技术面：周四经过暴涨暴跌500点左右的区间大洗盘后，黄金价格再次回归常态化反弹运行。日线也从 持续上涨的形态略有变化，临近支撑上移至5270附近，与4小时 ...

【导读】贵金属现货、期货合约集体大跳水 刚刚，贵金属集体崩了！ 1月30日，现货黄金盘中急速跳水，最低跌至5111.96美元/盎司，跌幅近5%。 现货白银同步大跌，最低价跌至107.947美元/盎司，跌幅近7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 淵鉄 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2602 | 29345 | -1535 | -4.97% | | 沪银2603 | 29400 | -1392 | -4.52% | | 沪银2604 | 28801 | -934 | -3.14% | | 治−第2605 | 28523 | -856 | -2.91% | | 沖縄2606 | 28243 | -1071 | -3.65% | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 辑2606 | 640.00 | | -74.85 -10.47% | | 辑2608 | 640.05 | | -73.90 -10.35% | | 铂2610 | | 633.00 - -82.65 -11.55% | | | 铂2612 | | 640.00 - -78.85 -10.97% | ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have reached new trading records, surpassing $5,500 an ounce, with projections from Morgan Stanley suggesting a potential rise to $5,700 an ounce by the end of Q2 [1] - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased by over 20%, driven by investor demand for reliable assets amid geopolitical uncertainty [2] - The recent volatility in U.S.-European relations, particularly due to actions by the Trump administration, has contributed to the attractiveness of gold as a hedge [2][3] Group 2: U.S. Dollar Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 10% since the Trump administration took office, reaching its lowest level since 2022 against currencies like the Euro [4] - The decline in the U.S. dollar's value has coincided with the rise in gold prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a preferred asset [4]

黄金相关机构表态偏乐观，华西证券认为受美联储降息预期、美元信用不稳、美国中期选举以及地缘政 治不确定性的影响，金价有望进一步上涨，根据历史年度涨幅测算，中性情景下2026年金价可能分别上 涨7%、23%和34%。铜、铝等基本金属方面，高盛警告涨势或面临逆风，其调查显示铜加工企业订单量 下降10%至30%，电网订单也在放缓。 有色金属ETF基金（516650）紧密跟踪中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7条指数组 成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的50家上市公司证券作为指数样本，前十大重仓 股包括山东黄金、中金黄金、兴业银锡等贵金属龙头。 1月29日，沪深震荡调整，贵金属概念延续强势；截至14：20，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨1.52%， 盘中最高涨超4%。个股方面，铜陵有色、湖南黄金、西部黄金、盛和资源、云南铜业、北方铜业涨 停，白银有色涨超 9%，江西铜业涨超 8%，北方稀土涨超 7%，中金黄金涨超 6%。 消息面上，有色金属市场延续强势，景气度持续攀升，呈现由贵金属引领、部分小金属接力的态势。1 月29日，伦敦现货黄金一度逼近5600美元/盎司，再创历史新高，伦敦现货白 ...

黄金白银不断刷新历史新高！ 石油方面，随着伊朗局势升温，国际油价集体飘红。WTI原油涨近1.8%，报63.5美元/桶，ICE布油涨超1.6%，报67.68美元/桶，同步升至2025年9月以来高 点。 警惕！ 上期所、上金所双双发布通知 29日，现货黄金冲上5500美元/盎司！ | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 5487.560 | 昨结 | 5417.747 开营 | 5416.334 | | | +69.813 +1.29% | | 总量(kq) 0.00 现手 | O | | | 最高价 5598.750 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 0 | | | 最低价 5416.260 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 0 | | | 42 | 五日 EK 周K | | 日末 | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- | 盘口 | | | 5598.750 | | 3.34% 卖1 | 5489.212 - 0 | | | | | ਸੀ। | 5488.888 0 08:06 5488.000 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.46%报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.06%报 116.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 3.36%报 1196.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 1.46%报 28885 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 28 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.58 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1089.96 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 211.42 吨，当前持仓量为 15636.12 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.5%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 86.5%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.1%，维持利 | | ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，他将把进口自韩国的汽车、木材和药品的关税提高到25%，同时指责韩国的 立法机构"未能履行"两国达成的贸易协议。韩国产业通商资源部称，部长即将访问美国并与卢特尼克会 面，同时总统顾问将与相关部会召开会议，讨论因应措施。总统府则表示：美国政府尚未就可能的关税 调升发出正式通知。 美国官员周一表示，如果伊朗希望与华盛顿接触，美国将"愿意进行对话"。当被问及与伊朗谈判的条件 时，这位官员对记者说："我认为他们知道这些条件。他们清楚这些条件。" 美国核心资本财订单11月增幅超预期，显示第四季企业在设备方面的支出维持稳健增长态势。核心资本 财订单已连续第五个月增加。 1月28日，沪金主力暂报1186.20元/克，涨幅3.58%，今日沪金主力开盘价1146.80元/克，截至目前最高 1186.76元/克，最低1134.70元/克。 【机构观点】 【宏观消息】 地缘政治不确定性引发的避险需求与全球央行稳健的购金行为，推动了贵金属价格出现史诗级行情。白 银价格波动大于黄金，其工业属性使其对全球经济增长前景的预期更为敏感。在交易所持续限制投机炒 作后，白银走势转弱，需关注能否守住10 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2800 per ounce and find support at $2600 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2100 per ounce and find support at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 694.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.20 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 504.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 9.25 yuan. The main - contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, a decrease of 277.00 hands; the main - contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, an increase of 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 670.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 15.25 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 460.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 24.35 yuan/gram, a decrease of 14.05 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.75 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) were 9966.00 contracts, a decrease of 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly) were 3003.00 contracts, a decrease of 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 95.76, a decrease of 1.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, an increase of 0.20 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and has also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump also said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland. Multiple Democratic senators in the US will vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chairperson as early as this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated. Trump has decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean cars, timber, pharmaceutical products, etc. from 15% to 25% [2] 3.6 Market Performance - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened in intraday trading, while the spot prices of platinum and palladium in London rebounded strongly due to the sharp rise of gold. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in weaker recent price increases in the domestic platinum and palladium markets compared to overseas [2] 3.7 Demand Outlook - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and the strengthening of automobile exhaust emission standards at the end of last year will increase the demand for platinum in automobile catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential price support for platinum [2] 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On January 28 at 02:00, the US M2 money supply; on January 29 at 03:00, the Fed's interest - rate decision and monetary policy statement; on January 29 at 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30 at 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]