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Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise further due to the marginal easing of liquidity in the US financial market, the continuous rise of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar, and the tight supply of copper mines, but the accumulation of inventory may suppress the upward trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to continue rising under the influence of the continuous rise of precious metals and the increase of copper price, despite the current high price and the off - season demand [4][5] - The lead price is driven by the marginal contraction of the domestic secondary lead supply and extremely low visible inventory, but the price shock caused by the departure of long - position funds in precious metals should be vigilant [7][8] - The zinc industry's fundamentals are still weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to the high sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors [9][10] - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, and it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] - The lithium carbonate price is affected by factors such as the change of spot pricing method and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [18][19][20] - The alumina price is affected by factors such as the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction [22][23] - The stainless steel price may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25][26] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strong cost and supply disruptions [28][29] Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME was closed. Driven by supply - side disturbances and the rise of precious metals, the copper price continued to strengthen, and the Shanghai copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark. The weekly inventory of SHFE copper increased by 16,000 tons to 112,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in the Shanghai and Guangdong regions expanded, and the downstream operating rate decreased [1] - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to rise further, but the impact of inventory accumulation on the upward trend should be noted. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M, it is 12,400 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm macro - sentiment, the high prices of precious metals and copper, the aluminum price fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58% to 22,405 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased by 20,000 to 674,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount in the East China region was 190 yuan/ton, and the year - end spot trading was still weak [4] - **Strategy View**: The current high aluminum price and the off - season demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the low inventory pattern of LME aluminum remains unchanged. The aluminum price is expected to rise further. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,920 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 1.37% to 17,548 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 11,600 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [7] - **Strategy View**: The primary lead supply is loose, and the secondary lead supply contracts marginally. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the domestic visible inventory is at an absolute low and continues to decline. The lead price is expected to be strong, but the price shock caused by precious metals should be vigilant [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.49% to 23,192 yuan/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,200 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory declines, and the zinc smelting profit stabilizes. The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to sector sentiment [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading is light [11][12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin, it is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 126,750 yuan/ton, up 1.10%. The spot premium of various brands was stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared due to the expected tax on cobalt in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract, it is 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.56% to 120,913 yuan, up 15.08% for the week. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The LC2601 contract closed at 130,520 yuan, up 5.67%, and up 17.16% for the week. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [18][19] - **Strategy View**: The change of spot pricing method by Tianqi Lithium and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises are beneficial to the restoration of spot valuation. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 127,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the alumina index rose 5.23% to 2,748 yuan/ton. The position increased by 25,200 to 644,900 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 160,800 tons. The ore price was stable [22] - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of the AXIS mine. The over - capacity in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 11,745 to 182,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 607 tons. The social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% [25][26] - **Strategy View**: Driven by the Indonesian nickel ore quota plan in 2026, the stainless steel price continued to rise last week. The inventory decreased, and the cost was supported. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose first and then fell. The main AD2602 contract rose 0.21% to 21,390 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 21,700 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 70,400 tons. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 300 tons to 46,300 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The short - term price is expected to be strong [29]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1]. - Silver also hit a new peak, reaching $69.45 per ounce, marking its first time above the $69 threshold [1]. - Platinum and palladium showed strong performance, with platinum exceeding $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008, and palladium reaching $1796.5 per ounce, both with daily gains exceeding 4% [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The current rally in precious metals is attributed to a consensus on multiple core drivers, including expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties contributing to a long-term risk premium for precious metals [2]. - The surge in gold prices has activated market bullish sentiment, leading to a ripple effect that has benefited silver, platinum, and palladium, creating a complete chain reaction from financial attributes to industrial properties [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future price movements are expected to diverge, with gold likely maintaining a steady trajectory due to its strong financial attributes, while silver's price will be influenced by industrial demand, particularly in green technologies [2]. - Platinum and palladium will be more closely tied to the recovery of the automotive sector and overall economic conditions, potentially reducing their correlation with gold [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Despite favorable macro conditions for precious metals, prices are at historical highs, prompting a cautious approach for investors [3]. - Investors are advised to view this rally as a result of long-term drivers rather than short-term speculation, and to consider precious metals as a defensive asset in their portfolios [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that spot gold prices have surged, breaking through the $4,300 mark, reaching a 50-day high, with current prices reported at $4,300.290 per ounce, reflecting a 0.49% increase [1] - On December 11, spot gold rose significantly, closing at $4,282.49 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.27% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry brands such as Chow Sang Sang, Lao Miao Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang have also seen their prices reach new highs for the year, with Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry priced at ¥1,338 per gram, Lao Miao Gold at ¥1,339 per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1,337 per gram [2] Group 2 - Reports from Xinyi Futures indicate that the recent increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. has strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which supports gold prices [6] - CITIC Futures suggests that the upcoming FOMC meeting in December may bring short-term adjustment pressure to precious metals, but the overall environment remains favorable for gold price increases [6] - According to Great Wall Futures, the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut signals a more accommodative policy, which supports precious metal prices, with strategies leaning towards a bullish outlook [6]

Group 1: Gold Heist Incident - A gold heist occurred in Thailand where approximately 10 masked gunmen robbed a jewelry store, stealing around 6000 grams of gold jewelry and injuring two individuals during the incident [1][2][3] - The robbers arrived in two stolen vehicles, subdued security personnel, and executed a well-planned operation, including setting up improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and spreading nails on the escape route [4][5] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged, with New York futures reaching a historic high of $4000 per ounce on October 7, marking an increase of over 50% year-to-date [8][10] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also raised their prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook increasing their gold prices to 1155 yuan per gram, up from 1129 yuan per gram on October 1 [2][9] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] Group 3: Stock Market Response - The rise in gold prices has positively impacted related stocks, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold seeing significant stock price increases of over 5% [9] - The overall resource sector in the A-share market has become a focal point following the surge in precious metals and base metals prices [9][10] Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4900 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4300, anticipating continued net purchases of gold by central banks [8][10] - Factors such as expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing central bank gold purchases are contributing to a significant upward trend in gold prices [10]

Market Performance - US stock markets saw collective gains with the three major indices rising, and most Chinese concept stocks also increased in value, including JD.com, Alibaba, Xiaopeng Motors, Zeekr, and NIO, all rising over 1% [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 76.33 points, or 0.17%, closing at 46,218.75 [2] - The Nasdaq index increased by 103.25 points, or 0.46%, reaching 22,573.98 [2] - The S&P 500 index gained 14.94 points, or 0.23%, ending at 6,646.90 [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index rose by 9.49 points, or 0.20%, to 4,830.32 [2] - The Nasdaq China Index increased by 24.46 points, or 0.28%, to 8,711.30 [2] - The Wande Chinese Stocks 100 Index gained 6.76 points, or 0.20%, closing at 3,403.15 [2] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with international gold spot prices at $3,657.66 per ounce, up 0.38% [1][3] - International silver spot prices reached $42.313 per ounce, with a gain of over 1% [1][3] - Domestic gold futures in Shanghai saw a price increase of 0.4%, reaching 833.12 yuan per gram [1][3] - Shanghai silver futures rose by 0.68%, surpassing the 10,000 yuan mark [1][3] Federal Reserve Independence - Global investors remain concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with recent news indicating that Trump has requested a judge to allow him to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, and the Supreme Court has asked Cook to respond by next Thursday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices reached $40.44 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% daily increase [2]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also hit new highs since April [5]. - The primary driver of this surge is the market's growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by increasing demand for clean energy technologies such as solar panels [10]. - Strong fundamentals have attracted significant investment, with silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing continuous inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2020 [11]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has added momentum to the price increase, as it signals potential government actions to reduce import reliance and boost domestic production [13][14]. - Market analysts suggest that this policy could lead to the imposition of high import tariffs, potentially up to 50%, due to the U.S.'s high dependency on silver imports, which stands at 64% [15][16]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook, projecting silver prices could reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, recommending investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [17].