本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月30日白银突破80美元后大幅回落，黄金录两个月最大跌幅】12月30日，白银首次突破每盎司80美 元后大幅回落，结束投机性需求推动的创纪录涨势。周一白银一度下跌逾9%，创2021年以来最大单日 盘中跌幅。同日，黄金也录得两个月来最大跌幅，一度下跌4.5%至每盎司4,329美元下方。迹象显示， 黄金与白银均处于超买状态。白银的急剧下跌距突破84美元仅过几小时，其14日相对强弱指数(RSI)现 约为67。此前三周，该指数一直维持在70以上，高于70通常被视为超买。 ...

周一(12月29日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格自接近每盎司4,550美元的历史高位回落，目前交投于4513.09 美元/盎司附近，现货黄金目前正尝试获得看涨动力以帮助其回升并重拾创历史新高的走势。与此同 时，相对强弱指标正尝试摆脱明显的超买状态，这使得金价更有可能在接下来一段时间延续震荡格局。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普表示，他在与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔.泽连斯基就可能的和平协议进行谈判时取 得了"很大进展"。然而，他表示在领土这一关键问题上没有明显突破，可能需要几周才能达成协议。 截至12月20日的美国每週初请失业金人数降至214,000，低于前一数据的224,000。该数据好于市场预期 的223,000。 特朗普上周表示，他预计下一任美联储主席将保持低利率，并且永远不会"与他意见相左"。这些评论可 能会加剧投资者和政策制定者对美联储独立性的担忧。 数据方面，市场将关注稍晚公布的美国11月成屋签约销售数据，但在流动性不足的背景下，其对趋势的 影响可能有限。 从技术面来看，月线级别，金价目前连续反弹走强，打消了10月的长上影见顶形态的看空预期，另外， 12月走势在尾部时段再度走强，有所突破趋势线压力，上行空间进一步打开 ...

沪银涨逾5%，国际现货白银跳空高开 25日夜盘时段，沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超5%，报18054元/千克。截至收盘，沪银涨5.50%，报18131 元/千克。 今早7时，现货白银跳空高开，突破73美元/盎司，再创历史新高，报73.7美元/盎司。纽约期银同样跳空 高开，现涨逾2%。现货钯日内涨逾2%，现报1728.79美元/盎司。 截至目前，现货白银价格年内涨幅接近150%。 海外机构StoneX的高级技术策略师表示，8月白银价格突破上行趋势阻力位，成为多头行情的关键拐 点。此次价格突破的同时，动量指标同步站上70关口，月线相对强弱指数（RSI）攀升至2011年以来的 最高水平。价格突破阻力后，市场多头情绪持续升温，但持续的超买状态，让不少交易者选择"等待回 调"再入场布局。然而白银价格并未出现显著回调，动量指标已连续第五周站稳70关口。白银价格突破 阻力位后，RSI同步进入超买区间，往往预示着一轮涨势中最快、最迅猛的上涨阶段将至。不少交易者 因认定"涨幅过高的行情易遇挫"而错失机会，实则陷入了认知误区。RSI是实用的技术分析工具，但它 的重要性永远不能凌驾于支撑位与阻力位的核心技术分析之上。 上述策略师预计，人 ...

技术面：金价日内上涨动能虽然有所减弱，布林带呈现扩张态势，预示着强劲的趋势有望延续，金价受 10月末延续的上升趋势线抬升显著，预计看涨仍可能占据主导。尽管整体趋势看涨，但14日相对强弱指 数已升至80上方，表明市场处于超买状态。这意味着在金价展开下一轮上涨前，可能需要经历一段时间 的震荡整理，任何进一步上行空间或将受限。 12月24日，市场对美联储明年进一步降息的预期日益升温，这可能提振金价。在通胀缓解和就业增长疲 软的迹象下，市场预计美联储将在2026年进行两次降息，相关预期或因此后公布的经济数据影响，再度 提升，利率降低可能会减少持有黄金的机会成本，从而为这种无收益的贵金属提供支撑。在圣诞节假期 前夕，交易相对清淡。交易者正等待周三晚些时候将公布的美国初请失业金数据，以寻求新的动力。 然而，金价的回撤空间可能有限，因为持续的地缘政治不确定性，尤其是美国与委内瑞拉之间的冲突， 可能会保持避险需求的高企。 上行方面，若金价反复测试4500心里关口后，本周坚守该水平，则可能再次上攻4550美元，并有望进一 步挑战4600美元的整数关口。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒 ...

對於後市部署，投資者可依據對江西銅業股價超買調整與趨勢延續的不同判斷進行選擇。若投資者認為趨勢強勁，短暫整理後仍將上行，可關注成本控制較 佳的看漲工具。認購證方面，市場提供了不同特點的選項。花旗認購證(20259) 以其市場最低的溢價和引伸波幅為顯著特點，這能有效降低持有成本，使回 報更緊密跟隨正股走勢。中銀認購證(20165) 則提供引伸波幅相對較低的另一選擇。此外，法巴認購證(21929) 提供了行使價為40.9元的價外選擇，其槓桿約 為2.43倍。目前，市場暫無相關牛熊證的明確推薦，若後市出現，牛證將提供更高槓桿但需嚴控收回風險，熊證則可作為對沖高位波動的潛在工具。若投資 者認為超買壓力將主導短期走勢，則可留意看淡工具以對沖風險或捕捉回調。目前，中銀認沽證(27395) 以其最低的引伸波幅為特點，是進行看跌部署時一 個成本可控的選項。該產品能夠較純粹地反映正股價格下跌，受市場波動率預期變化的影響較小。 短線博弈點：江西銅業是直接挑戰阻力還是回踩支撐？ 江西銅業(00358)股價近期展現淩厲升勢，目前股價升2.82%，股價報35元。技術圖表上，股價已大幅升越10天線(31.53元)、30天線(31.77元 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices surged to a historical peak of $59.33 per ounce, with a daily close at $58.34, marking a 3.9% increase [1] - The net inflow into silver-based ETFs reached the highest weekly record since July, indicating strong investor demand [1] - Year-to-date, silver prices have nearly doubled, significantly outperforming gold's 60% increase [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent influx of funds into silver is expected to amplify price volatility and trigger short-term short squeezes [3] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver fluctuated around the 70 mark, suggesting it may be in an overbought condition [3] - Supply constraints are emerging in various markets, with China's silver inventory at a near ten-year low [3] Group 2: Demand Factors - Analysts note that silver's recent price surge indicates it is no longer merely an "appendage" to gold, as its rise is driven by structural scarcity and increasing industrial demand [3] - Silver is widely used in manufacturing products such as circuit boards, solar panels, and medical device coatings, highlighting its practical applications [4] - Global silver demand has consistently exceeded mining supply over the past five years [4] Group 3: Economic Influences - Expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have bolstered silver's recent price increase, as lower rates typically favor non-yielding precious metals [3] - Citigroup's analysis suggests that underpinned by Fed rate cuts, strong investment demand, and spot supply shortages, silver prices could rise to $62 per ounce in the next three months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have created significant uncertainty in the market, with prices reaching a historical high before experiencing a sharp decline, impacting both consumers and gold recovery businesses [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices recently peaked at $4,392 per ounce before experiencing a rapid decline, leading to confusion among market participants [3]. - The current price of gold jewelry in stores is over 1,200 yuan per gram, with additional processing fees, indicating a high retail price despite recent market volatility [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable decrease in consumer interest in purchasing gold jewelry, with many potential buyers hesitant to commit due to the recent price fluctuations [3]. - Gold recovery operators express significant concern over the market's unpredictability, having previously accumulated gold during a price surge, only to face potential losses due to the recent downturn [3][4]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a reduction in market risk aversion, as geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that the market was in an overbought condition, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 88, making a price correction a normal occurrence [4]. - Experts suggest that the current price drop may be a short-term adjustment, with the long-term investment value of gold remaining intact due to ongoing global economic uncertainties [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices stabilized after falling below $4000 per ounce, closing at $3987.04, down 1.6% from the previous day, following a four-day rally that peaked at a historical high of $4059.31 per ounce [1][4] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high, indicating a potential profit-taking behavior among investors due to overbought conditions [1][4] - Despite the recent decline, gold is expected to achieve its eighth consecutive week of gains, reflecting ongoing investor interest [4] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - Silver prices also fell after hitting a 40-year high of $51.235 per ounce, although it has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 70% this year, outperforming gold [1][4] - The silver market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with predictions of a fifth consecutive year of supply shortages by 2025 [6] Group 3: Market Influences - The recent fluctuations in precious metals coincided with a downturn in the U.S. stock market, highlighting gold's dual role as a safe-haven asset and a risk asset during market corrections [4] - Concerns over inflation, unsustainable U.S. fiscal policies, and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence have increased the attractiveness of precious metals [4] Group 4: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver's industrial applications, particularly in solar panels and wind turbines, account for over half of its total demand, emphasizing its importance beyond just investment [6] - The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented tightness, with rising borrowing costs and fears of potential tariffs on silver imports to the U.S. leading to rapid depletion of inventories [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have continued to rise for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching their highest level since September 6, 2011, driven by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent bullish momentum in silver is supported by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields, which have made silver more attractive to non-dollar holders and reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver [2][3]. - As of the latest report, silver is trading around $42.65, marking an increase of nearly 1% on the day [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, silver remains in a strong bullish trend, trading well above key moving averages, with the 21-day moving average at $39.96 and the 50-day moving average at $38.79 [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 75, indicating an overbought condition, but this reflects ongoing demand, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 31.98, confirming the strength of the upward trend [5]. - Immediate resistance levels are at the psychological mark of $43.00 and the peak of $43.40 since September 5, 2011. A sustained breakout above these levels could lead to a rise towards the high of $44.24 from August 24, 2011 [5]. - On the downside, initial support is seen at $41.50, followed by $40.50 and the $40.00 round number [5]. Group 3: Speculative Positions - Increased speculative positions have added weight to the bullish sentiment, with non-commercial speculators holding 72,450 long contracts compared to only 18,513 short contracts. In contrast, commercial participants hold a significant net short position of 113,565 contracts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 0.44% on August 4, closing at 0.8074, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] Market Sentiment - The proportion of bullish positions in the US dollar against the Swiss franc reached 88%, indicating an overbought condition and strong market sentiment towards the dollar [1] - The presence of significant long positions has provided upward momentum for the price, but there is a potential for a pullback if bullish momentum wanes [1] Support and Resistance Levels - A strong support level has formed around the previous low of 0.8000, as the price rebounded after a dip to 0.8023, indicating buying interest at this level [1] - The 0.8100 level serves as a critical resistance point, where upward momentum has weakened, preventing effective breakthroughs, highlighting the resistance's suppressive effect [1]