#秋季图文激励计划#家人们，最近的黄金市场，简直比坐过山车还刺激！前几天还一路狂飙，价格蹭蹭往上涨，眼瞅着就要冲破天际了，结果这两天突然一 个"大跳水"，直接把所有人都看傻眼了，尤其是那些黄金回收的老板们，一个个愁得头发都快掉光了。 那这黄金价格为啥突然就跳水了呢？其实原因挺复杂的。一方面，市场避险情绪降温，之前大家因为各种国际形势不稳定，都疯狂买入黄金避险，现在局势 稍微缓和点，大家对黄金的需求就没那么强烈了；另一方面，从技术层面来看，黄金之前涨太多，相对强弱指数（RSI）最高突破88，市场处于超买状态， 回调也是正常的。 不过，虽说现在黄金价格跳水，但也有专家分析，目前的下跌可能只是短期调整，长期来看，黄金的投资价值依然存在。毕竟全球经济的不确定性还在，黄 金作为传统的避险资产，还是有它的魅力。就是不知道那些被这波行情折腾得晕头转向的黄金回收人，还能不能扛得住这市场的起起伏伏咯！ 再看看那些黄金回收从业者，他们的心情就像坐了一趟疯狂过山车。有个回收大哥跟我大倒苦水，说之前经历过一次金价大跌，当时观望了一阵，结果金价 又涨回去了，他果断出手，总算是没亏。可这次，他真有点慌了神。现在他的避险办法就是快速把收到 ...

近期贵金属上涨得益于"货币贬值交易"推动，投资者涌入比特币、黄金、白银等被视为安全资产的品种，同时撤离美元等主要货币。对通胀压力、美国财政 不可持续及美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，持续推升贵金属吸引力。 截至发稿，现货黄金价格维持3987美元/盎司附近，彭博美元指数在上一交易日触及10周高点后基本持平;白银则下跌0.2%，周四曾上涨4.8%。 图2 智通财经APP获悉，黄金价格在前一交易日跌破每盎司4000美元关口后企稳，周五收盘报每盎司3987.04美元，较前一日下跌1.6%。此前金价连续四日快速 上涨，周三曾创下每盎司4059.31美元的历史新高，但技术指标显示过去一个月金价多数时间处于超买状态，促使部分投资者选择获利了结。与此同时，白 银价格延续跌势，周四触及每盎司51.235美元的40多年新高后回落，尽管今年以来白银累计涨幅仍达约70%，远超黄金同期表现。 图1 此次贵金属波动恰逢周四美国股市下跌，尽管黄金通常被视为市场动荡期的避险资产，但当投资者需平仓弥补其他市场损失时，黄金也可能与风险资产同步 下跌。不过，金价仍有望实现连续第八周上涨。 Pepperstone Group研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿指出，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have continued to rise for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching their highest level since September 6, 2011, driven by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent bullish momentum in silver is supported by a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields, which have made silver more attractive to non-dollar holders and reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver [2][3]. - As of the latest report, silver is trading around $42.65, marking an increase of nearly 1% on the day [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, silver remains in a strong bullish trend, trading well above key moving averages, with the 21-day moving average at $39.96 and the 50-day moving average at $38.79 [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 75, indicating an overbought condition, but this reflects ongoing demand, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 31.98, confirming the strength of the upward trend [5]. - Immediate resistance levels are at the psychological mark of $43.00 and the peak of $43.40 since September 5, 2011. A sustained breakout above these levels could lead to a rise towards the high of $44.24 from August 24, 2011 [5]. - On the downside, initial support is seen at $41.50, followed by $40.50 and the $40.00 round number [5]. Group 3: Speculative Positions - Increased speculative positions have added weight to the bullish sentiment, with non-commercial speculators holding 72,450 long contracts compared to only 18,513 short contracts. In contrast, commercial participants hold a significant net short position of 113,565 contracts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 0.44% on August 4, closing at 0.8074, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] Market Sentiment - The proportion of bullish positions in the US dollar against the Swiss franc reached 88%, indicating an overbought condition and strong market sentiment towards the dollar [1] - The presence of significant long positions has provided upward momentum for the price, but there is a potential for a pullback if bullish momentum wanes [1] Support and Resistance Levels - A strong support level has formed around the previous low of 0.8000, as the price rebounded after a dip to 0.8023, indicating buying interest at this level [1] - The 0.8100 level serves as a critical resistance point, where upward momentum has weakened, preventing effective breakthroughs, highlighting the resistance's suppressive effect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent breakout above the 3360-65 range, but the bullish momentum is not strong, indicating potential for a downward adjustment if it fails to maintain above the 3400 level [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold opened with volatility and showed a strong upward movement, reaching a high of 3397, but later faced a pullback below the previous low of 3391, suggesting weakening bullish strength [1][3]. - The market is currently in an overbought state after a significant rise, with the 3400 level identified as a critical resistance point. A failure to break above this level may lead to further declines [3][5]. - If gold can maintain above the 3400 level, the next targets for upward movement are 3420-25 and 3450, but a drop below this level would indicate a bearish trend [5][7]. Group 2: Silver Market Insights - The silver market also showed strength, reaching a high of 39.05, but is currently experiencing a pullback. The 39.05-39.1 area is identified as a potential double top resistance [5][7]. - Short-term support for silver is at 38.3, with further support at 37.3-35. A breakdown below these levels would signal a stronger bearish trend [5][7]. - The Shanghai gold and silver markets are following similar trends, with Shanghai gold reaching 780 and facing resistance at 788-790. A pullback to 780 could present a buying opportunity [7].

Group 1 - Gold prices fell to a one-month low as trade tensions between major economies eased, leading to suppressed demand and investors awaiting U.S. economic data for interest rate direction [1][2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.33% to $3167.04 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since April 10, while U.S. gold futures dropped by 0.52% to $3171.3 per ounce [1] - Analysts indicate that the market is in an overbought state, with short positions increasing significantly [1] Group 2 - President Trump’s comments on Iran nearing a nuclear deal further reduced demand for gold [2] - Market focus shifted to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with attention on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech for clues on interest rate paths [2] - Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut this year, starting in October, could lead to stronger performance for non-yielding gold [3] Group 3 - Gold has broken below the double top neckline support, indicating potential short-term downside risk, with price expectations moving towards the $3000 - $3050 range [3] - Key chart support at $3190 has been breached, suggesting a continued corrective move in gold prices [3] - Other precious metals also saw declines, with spot silver down 1% to $31.89 per ounce, palladium down 0.2% to $949.07 per ounce, and platinum steady at $976 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices follows a shift in sentiment from President Trump, leading to improved risk appetite among investors and profit-taking after a significant price surge [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell for the second consecutive day after initially breaking the $3500 per ounce mark, with a drop of 1.9% during early Asian trading [1] - The price of gold reached a historic high of $3500.10 per ounce before the decline began, as stock markets rebounded and both the bond market and the US dollar stabilized [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors began to take profits after the sharp rise in gold prices, which had increased over 25% year-to-date due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid trade tensions and deteriorating economic growth prospects [1] - The 14-day relative strength index indicated that gold was in an overbought condition, contributing to the recent price corrections [1] Group 3: Support Factors - Strong buying from central banks and gold ETF investors has provided support for gold prices despite the recent downturn [1]