操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3368-3371区域做多，止损在3361，目标看3390-3420，破位3435的话上方看3450-3465. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 国内黄金ETF持仓一季度累计增持23.47吨（较2023年末增长10.8%），显示机构投资者对黄金长期配置价值的认可，但野村证券提示需警惕短期技术性回调 风险：其一，SPDR黄金ETF（GLD）资金流呈现"大进大出"特征，3月净流入超20亿美元后4月净流出超15亿美元，资金博弈加剧；其二，技术指标显示金 价偏离200日均线超25%（布林带上轨外扩），RSI指标进入80以上超买区间，若后续无重大地缘事件催化，可能面临"均值回归"压力。此外COMEX黄金投 机净多头头寸降至14个月新低（截至5月3日当周为11.7万手），显示市场对美联储鹰派政策预期的定价已较为充分，但需警惕"多头拥挤度"下降后的反向波 动风险。 昨日黄金市场延续多头攻势，早盘以3335.8美元/盎 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite the volatility in the US stock market in early April, Deutsche Bank's research suggests that many market movements may have been overreacted and are likely to mean revert [1] - Deutsche Bank's May report indicates that the panic regarding the dollar, US consumer data, and overall confidence in US assets may have been excessive, making valuations in certain sectors attractive [1][2] - The current market conditions reflect emotional swings, transitioning from extreme optimism post-2024 US elections to current pessimism, with many growth and policy expectations having completed a full cycle [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the decline of the dollar and US consumer stocks have been overstated, as the dollar index has experienced 11 corrections of over 10% since 1990, with a 10% drop so far in 2025 [2] - US consumer stocks have significantly dropped since April 2 due to tariff concerns and worries about US demand, with median declines in US consumer stocks being notably higher than their European counterparts [4] - Despite a low US consumer confidence index, retail sales in the US remain strong, growing above trend levels [6] Group 3 - From a relative valuation perspective, certain cyclical US consumer companies, including apparel and essentials, may begin to show investment appeal, as the valuation premium of the US compared to Europe has significantly decreased in some sectors [8] - During the sell-off in early April, no asset truly acted as a "safe haven," including US 10-year Treasury bonds, which behaved more like bonds from struggling emerging markets [9] - The US credit default swap (CDS) spreads increased by 15 basis points last month, reaching the highest level since concerns over the debt ceiling and Moody's downgrade, now close to levels seen in Greece and Italy [11]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is at a critical juncture, struggling at $33/oz while gold reaches new highs, reflecting a deeper market confusion about silver's identity as either a safe-haven asset or an industrial commodity [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio has risen to an extreme of 100:1, indicating a potential undervaluation of silver amidst gold's dominance [1] - Historical mean reversion theories are being tested, as the price divergence between platinum and gold suggests the fragility of single-price logic [1] - Silver's price is influenced by both monetary inflation concerns and demand from emerging industries like solar panels and AI server cooling [1][2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver is positioned at a long-term resistance line stemming from its historical high of $49.84/oz, with $35/oz acting as a critical psychological and technical barrier [1] - A breakthrough above this level could trigger significant market reactions, including trend-following by CTA funds and ETF holdings surpassing a three-year range [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Revolution - Industrial demand for silver, which accounts for over 50% of its usage, is set to increase significantly, with a projected 80% rise in demand from the solar sector by 2030 [2] - The use of silver in AI data center cooling components is expected to increase by 40% compared to traditional equipment, highlighting its strategic value in the green economy [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Divergence - The debate between bullish and cautious perspectives reflects a clash between linear extrapolation and paradigm shifts in thinking [2] - Historical patterns suggest that when the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, the pricing of industrial metals like silver may shift from "actual demand" to "financial attributes and demand expectations" [2] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions may present a last opportunity for left-side positioning, as the convergence of industrial and financial attributes could lead to a steep upward trajectory for silver [3]

不过在此次人士调整后，申万宏源研究所的实际"一把手"仍然是原所长周海晨。记者从多位知情人士处 了解到，周海晨目前仍然是申万宏源研究所党委书记、申万宏源证券执委会委员，并分管研究所。 每经记者 王海慜 每经编辑 肖芮冬 又有券商研究所所长将发生变更。《每日经济新闻》记者获悉，现任申万宏源研究所副所长、首席策略 分析师王胜，将被内部提拔为申万宏源研究所所长。 另据了解，申万宏源研究所原所长、现任申万宏源证券执委周海晨目前仍然是研究所的"一把手"。 在公募降费引发的新一轮"洗牌"背景下，今年前4个月已有多家券商研究所"换将"，折射出行业谋求变 革的基本态势。 据记者了解，现任申万宏源研究所副所长王胜，将升任为申万宏源研究所所长，本次岗位调整属于内部 提拔。从履历上来看，王胜此前曾任申万宏源研究所副总经理、首席策略分析师。值得一提的是，从应 届毕业生开始，王胜的分析师生涯一直在申万宏源研究所度过，先后从事行业和策略研究。 作为一家设立已有33年的老牌券商研究所，近年来申万宏源研究所也面临着来自外部竞争的压力。从分 仓佣金排名来看，申万宏源研究所遇到了不少来自同行的挑战。 目前，随着外部分仓佣金"蛋糕"大幅缩水，内部转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Establishing a systematic investment thinking framework for gold futures requires integrating macroeconomic logic, commodity attributes, market sentiment, and trading strategies to form a comprehensive understanding of gold price fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Understanding the Gold Market - Gold's intrinsic properties include being a safe-haven asset that attracts risk-averse funds during geopolitical conflicts and economic crises, as seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. - Gold futures have unique characteristics, such as leveraged trading through standardized contracts (e.g., COMEX gold at 100 ounces per contract) and a margin system that amplifies risk and returns [2]. Group 2: Analytical Framework Construction - Geopolitical events and black swan occurrences, like wars and sovereign credit crises (e.g., the 2011 European debt crisis), can trigger safe-haven buying, but caution is needed for profit-taking after events settle [3]. - Technical analysis involves assessing long-term trends through weekly/monthly charts (e.g., a decade-long bull market from 2001-2011) and capturing short-term fluctuations via hourly charts [4]. - Historical price points, such as the peak of $2075 per ounce in August 2020 and key psychological levels (e.g., $1800, $1900), are critical for analysis [5]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Key macroeconomic indicators include the U.S. CPI and non-farm payroll data, which influence inflation and employment, subsequently affecting Federal Reserve policies and gold prices through real interest rates [6]. - The 10-year TIPS yield (real interest rate) shows a significant negative correlation with gold prices [6]. - Central bank policies, particularly during the initial phase of a rate hike cycle, can suppress gold prices, but expectations of economic recession may lead to a reversal in gold's favor [6]. - Global central bank gold purchases provide long-term support for gold prices [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Trend-following strategies are suitable during rising recession expectations and ongoing central bank easing [12]. - Mean reversion strategies apply when gold prices deviate from implied values based on real interest rates or when overbought/oversold indicators signal a reversal [15]. - Event-driven strategies involve adjusting positions before key data releases (e.g., non-farm payrolls, CPI) and entering trades based on market reactions [17]. Group 5: Risk Management - Leverage control is essential due to gold futures' high volatility (daily fluctuations of 1-3%), recommending a maximum risk of 2% of the trading capital per trade [19]. - Dynamic stop-loss strategies can be based on support/resistance levels or volatility measures like the Average True Range (ATR) [21][22]. - Hedging strategies may involve inverse positions in the U.S. dollar index or balancing with equity assets [23]. Group 6: Trading Psychology and Cognitive Upgrades - Overcoming cognitive biases, such as anchoring effects and overtrading, is crucial for successful trading in gold [24][25]. - Recognizing the "inflation-recession" cycle of gold can help traders adapt their strategies accordingly [26]. - Continuous review and iteration of trading logic and strategy performance are necessary for improvement [29]. Group 7: Common Misconceptions and Responses - Misconception 1: Viewing gold solely as an inflation hedge; real interest rates must be negative for gold to be truly bullish [31]. - Misconception 2: Ignoring liquidity risks, especially during significant market events that may lead to liquidity shortages [32]. - Misconception 3: Confusing futures with physical gold, as futures contracts incur time costs and potential roll-over losses [33]. Summary of the Gold Investment Framework - The core of the gold investment thinking system is a triadic driving model comprising real interest rates (fundamentals), dollar cycles (monetary attributes), and risk-averse sentiment (emotional factors) [35]. - Strategies should align with market conditions, utilizing trend strategies in trending markets and mean-reversion strategies in sideways markets [36]. - Prioritizing risk management is vital due to gold's volatility, emphasizing survival over profit [37].

Economic Growth - The domestic economic growth momentum is steadily improving, with the Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remaining positive and Index B continuing to rise[1] - Investment sector sentiment is improving, while consumer and real estate sectors show little change; investment performance is relatively strong[1] - Seasonal comparison indicates that Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly after the Spring Festival, with this week's standardized increase at 0.14, aligning with historical averages[1] Asset Prices and Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high; a mean reversion suggests that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to rise and the Shanghai Composite Index to fall in the upcoming week[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of March 21, 2025, is 2.47%, while the actual yield is 1.87%, indicating a deviation of 61 basis points[18] - The predicted Shanghai Composite Index for the same week is 3,174.98, lower than the actual value of 3,411.22[19] Price Trends - Food and non-food prices have both slightly decreased, with March CPI food expected to be -1.0%, non-food at -0.1%, and overall CPI at -0.3%[2] - The domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to remain flat month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to -2.1%[2]