Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, highlighting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market and the need for diversified asset allocation in a weak dollar scenario [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies for Chinese Markets - A-shares and H-shares are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with potential upward space due to improved fundamentals and profit expectations [12][11]. - The technology sector, particularly in 5G, robotics, and AI applications, is anticipated to yield excess returns, supported by increased capital inflow from southbound funds [12][11]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as defensive assets while also investing in technology and consumer sectors [13][14]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The RMB is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][18]. - The current account surplus is expected to maintain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for RMB stability [15][18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Predictions - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with an emphasis on social welfare, green transition, and new productivity [17]. - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with potential for one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio cut within the year [18][19]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Policies - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility and long-term economic challenges [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [22][23]. Group 5: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - A declining dollar index may relieve global debt burdens and shift capital flows towards non-dollar assets, increasing demand for gold, euros, and RMB [25][26]. - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments as attractive options [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that recent Trump policies have made progress in areas such as finance, deregulation, and tariffs. The market has started to price in the medium - term "Goldilocks" scenario, bypassing short - term mild stagflation. There is a path from the current short - term mild stagflation (economic decline and inflation rise) to the "Goldilocks" scenario, and the probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policy combinations. However, the stability of this path remains to be confirmed [7]. 3. Summary according to Related Content Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act - **Deficit Impact**: By 2035, the act will increase national debt issuance by $4.1 trillion. The fiscal deficit rates from 2026 - 2029 may all be above 7%, with the peak in 2028. Compared with not implementing the act, the deficit rates in 2026 and 2027 will increase by over 1 percentage point, which will have a certain stimulating effect on economic growth in the next two years [2]. - **Distribution Aspect**: Tax cuts are mainly TCJA extensions, tax - free deductions for tips and overtime pay, and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes, showing regressive characteristics. Expenditure cuts focus on reducing welfare such as Medicaid and SNAP, reducing student loans, and canceling clean - energy tax incentives, which have a greater impact on low - income groups. The final act may cause the income of the bottom fifth of the population to decline by 2.9% (about $700), while the income of the top 1% will increase by 1.9% (about $30,000) [2][3]. - **Debt Ceiling**: The federal debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, the largest increase in history. This avoids the debt - ceiling issue before next year's mid - term elections and provides room for fiscal expansion in the next 2 - 3 years. It also affects the fiscal strength in the second half of this year compared to the first half. Additionally, the rapid replenishment of the TGA account may temporarily affect liquidity [3]. - **Clause Deletion**: Deleting the previous "Capital Tax" Clause 899 reduces the uncertainty for foreign investors, and the market may have already priced it in [4]. - **Industry Aspect**: In the United States, sectors such as semiconductors, defense, aerospace, and traditional energy are expected to benefit, while subsidies for the new - energy, electric - vehicle, and medical industries will be reduced, which is a negative factor. In terms of overall economic impact, the profitability of the consumer sector may be affected by tariffs. In the short term, focus on interest - sensitive growth sectors, and in the medium term, focus on fiscal - related pro - cyclical sectors [4]. Tariff Policy Concerns - **Tariff Rate Setting**: The US will start sending letters to countries as early as Friday to set new tariff rates before July 9, which will be implemented from August 1. Negotiations with key countries such as Europe and Japan may continue, and the new tariffs may postpone the negotiations until August 1, with the possibility of further postponement [5]. - **Tariff Rate Ranges**: The approximate tariff rate ranges for different countries are: about 10% for allied countries, about 20% for friendly countries, and over 30% for competing countries (referring to the 40% tariff on Vietnam's trans - shipped goods). Trump's claimed 60% - 70% tariff may have a punitive nature. The market's reaction to tariffs may continue to show a blunted characteristic, with expected disturbances but limited amplitude [5]. - **US - Vietnam Agreement**: The US will impose at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods from other countries trans - shipped through Vietnam. This further strengthens the prediction of tariff rate ranges. The direct impact on China is limited, and the US's intention to promote Vietnam's industrial chain localization through origin - related regulations can be hedged by China's strong industrial chain advantages in capital goods and raw materials, but the demonstrative effect is worthy of vigilance [6]. Outlook on the US Economic Scenario - **Short - term Situation**: In the short term, the US economy is in a state of mild stagflation with economic decline and inflation rise. However, there is a path to the "Goldilocks" scenario. The probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policies, and appropriate trading can be considered [7]. - **Stability Uncertainty**: The stability of this path needs to be confirmed. The key for the US economy not to enter a recession is that financial conditions should not tighten rapidly, which requires the stability of the US stock and bond markets. The specific impact of tariffs remains to be seen after the consumption of excess inventory. If inflation or corporate profitability deviates from expectations, market trading may shift again [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long run, the reconstruction of the global trade, financial, and geopolitical order is a more fundamental factor beyond economic growth rates [9].

今天分享的是：2025贸易摩擦与资产配置逻辑：财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦 报告共计：25页 2025贸易摩擦透视：关税政策背后的多方角力与全球影响 当前，全球贸易格局正被一场围绕关税政策的复杂博弈所牵动。美国特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅是其贸易策略的核心，更 深度纠缠于财政平衡、司法争议、货币政策及国际博弈之中，其走向正深刻影响着全球经济的节奏。 关税：特朗普经济政策的"平衡支点" 在特朗普政府的经济框架中，关税政策扮演着特殊角色——它既是贸易保护的工具，也是财政平衡的"调节器"。其核心逻辑是 通过"国内减税、国外加税"的税负转嫁策略，在维持国内减税政策的同时，试图通过关税收入弥补财政缺口。 这一策略的关键载体是"大而美"法案（OBBBA）。政府宣称，该法案通过削减支出和新增关税，能在10年内减少数万亿美元赤 字；但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）却持相反观点，认为法案会扩大赤字。争议的焦点在于基线设定：白宫以"现有政策"为基 准，强调法案的减赤效果；而CBO以"现有法律"为基准，认为法案会加剧赤字。这种分歧凸显了关税对特朗普财政计划的重要 性——若没有关税带来的额外收入，减税政策可能导致赤字大幅扩张 ...

②6月30日，马斯克再次呼吁成立"新政党"，并不惜花钱推翻支持大而美法案的议员。 ③7月1日，特朗普威胁审查马斯克所获补贴，马斯克：全部砍掉，就现在。特朗普扬言"考虑驱逐"马斯 克。 金十整理：与特朗普裂痕加深，马斯克宣布成立"新政党" 1. 6月11日，关系回暖： ①马斯克低头：对之前发表的关于特朗普的帖文感到后悔，说得太过分了。 ②特朗普回应：可以与马斯克和解，但并非首要任务。 ③媒体称，马斯克在发布"后悔"声明之前，曾与美国总统特朗普进行了私下交谈。 2. 6月29日，再度恶化： ①6月29日，马斯克再批特朗普"大而美"法案："极其疯狂且具破坏性"。 3. 关键节点："会让美国破产"的法案生效 ①7月4日，特朗普签署"大而美"法案， 马斯克随即发布建立"美国党"的投票。 ②7月5日，马斯克兑现诺言，法案通过次日宣布"美国党"成立。 ③马斯克回应与特朗普关系转变：赤字暴增会让美国破产。 订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 订阅马斯克动态 +订阅 决裂爆发 决裂发酵 ...

当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人 民自由。 近期，马斯克与美国总统特朗普就"大而美"税收和支出法案产生分歧。6月30日，马斯克猛批特朗普力 推的所谓"大而美"税收和支出法案并表示，如果法案通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。当地时间7月4 日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。法案签署成法的几个小时前，马斯克再 次在社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。在收到的约124.9万网络投票中，65.4%的网民支 持成立新党。 据了解，马斯克于6月5日首次提出这一想法。 不满"大而美" 马斯克"独立日"再提成立美国新政党 针对亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克近日连发帖文炮轰"大而美"税收和支出法案，美国总统特朗普当地时间1日表 态，称可能会考虑"将马斯克驱逐出境"。 特朗普说，美国政府效率部应该好好调查一下马斯克经营的特斯拉和美国太空探索技术公司所获政府补 贴的情况。 据央视新闻报道，在美国总统特朗普7月4日将"大而美"法案签署成法的几个小时前，特朗普的前盟友、 企业家埃隆·马斯克通过社交平台发起了一项关于成立美国新政党的投票。 独立日这天正 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美 国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 图源/ 央视新闻 此前，国际货币基金组织发言人表示，美国特朗普政府的税收与支出法案会进一步扩大美国 的财政赤字。这与该组织关于美国应在中期内降低财政赤字的建议背道而驰。 来源：央视新闻 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程。 该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免 于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。 据央视新闻援引《纽约时报》指出， 这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。 初步分 析显示，该法案不仅会在未来10年使美国赤字增加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的 税收收入。此种缺口可能会导致美国的财政轨迹开始发生翻天覆地的变化，并加剧债务危机 的担忧。 图源/ 央视新闻 为了抗议这项大规模税收与支出法案，众议院少数党领袖、民主党众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯7月 3日行使了允许无限辩论的领袖特权，在众议院进行了创纪录的8 ...

当地时间7月5日，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 近期，马斯克与美国总统特朗普就"大而美"税收和支出法案产生分歧。6月30日，马斯克猛批特朗普力推的所谓"大而美"税收和支出法案并表示，如果法案 通过，第二天就会成立"美国党"。当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，使其生效。法案签署成法的几个小时前，马斯克再次在 社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。在收到的约124.9万网络投票中，65.4%的网民支持成立新党。 据了解，马斯克于6月5日首次提出这一想法。 不满"大而美" 马斯克"独立日"再提成立美国新政党 据央视新闻报道，在美国总统特朗普7月4日将"大而美"法案签署成法的几个小时前，特朗普的前盟友、企业家埃隆·马斯克通过社交平台发起了一项关于成 立美国新政党的投票。 独立日这天正好问问大家：你们是否想从两党制（有人会说这是"同一政党"）中独立出来？我们要不要创立一个"美国党"？ 当地时间7月4日，马斯克再次在社交平台上发布有关建立新党派"美国党"的投票。截至目前，已经有 超过108万个账号 参与投票，其中 64.4%选择 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk announced the establishment of a new political party called "American Party" in response to the recently signed "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill by President Trump, which he criticized for exacerbating fiscal deficits and benefiting the wealthy [1][4][6]. Group 1: Formation of the American Party - Musk initiated a poll on social media regarding the creation of the "American Party," receiving over 1.24 million votes, with 65.4% in favor of its establishment [1][3]. - The idea of forming a new party was first proposed by Musk on June 5, with a previous poll showing over 80% support for creating a party that represents centrist views [2][3]. Group 2: Criticism of the "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, signed into law on July 4, is criticized for potentially increasing the U.S. fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade and reducing tax revenues significantly [6]. - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which has led to concerns about its impact on federal assistance and long-term debt [6]. Group 3: Political Reactions - Musk's criticism of the bill has led to a public dispute with Trump, who defended the bill and criticized Musk's reliance on government subsidies for his businesses [5][6]. - The bill's passage has sparked significant debate in Congress, with Democratic leaders highlighting its negative effects on vulnerable populations [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1] - The U.S.-China trade talks in Geneva have made significant progress, establishing a trade negotiation mechanism [1] - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has led to a rise in tariffs on various trade partners, with tariffs on Chinese goods peaking at 145% [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war has caused significant volatility in global stock markets and has severely impacted U.S.-China economic relations [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the government's cash reserves and debt control measures may be exhausted by August [3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has resulted in increased consumer price index (CPI) growth, affecting households across different income levels [3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's stance appears to soften, with indications of a potential agreement with China, and a reduction in tariffs from 30% to 10% on Chinese goods [5] - Despite some concessions, the U.S. government continues to take actions that complicate U.S.-China relations, such as restricting funding for collaborations with Chinese universities [5][8] - Elon Musk has criticized the Trump administration's proposed "big and beautiful" bill, warning it could lead to significant job losses and strategic damage to the U.S. [6] Group 4 - The current state of U.S.-China trade relations shows signs of easing, but uncertainties remain regarding the sincerity of the U.S. government's intentions [8] - Musk's comments reflect the broader challenges and potential risks associated with U.S. trade policies [8][9] - The future trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations remains unpredictable, with global stakeholders closely monitoring developments [9]

独立日这天正好问问大家：你们是否想从两党制（有人会说这是"同一政党"）中独立出来？我们要不要创立一 个"美国党"？ 当地时间7月4日，马斯克再次在社交平台上发布有关 建立新党派"美国党"的投票 。截至目前，已经 有超过108万个账号参与投票，其中 64.4%选择了"是" ，35.6%选择了"否"。 据央视新闻， 在美国总统特朗普7月4日将"大而美"法案签署成法的几个小时前，特朗普的前 盟友、企业家埃隆·马斯克通过社交平台 发起了一项关于成立美国新政党的投票。 二人口舌之争再起。当地时间7月1日美国股市开盘后，特斯拉股价下跌约7%。 "大而美"被批"劫贫济富" "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年初重返白宫后推出的标志性立法议程 。该法案主要内容包括延 长特朗普在其第一个任期内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免 于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。 该法案因造成联邦援助削减、长期债务增加和为富人及大企业减税等而备受争议。《纽约时 报》指出，这一法案使美国走上新的、更危险的财政道路。初步分析显示，该法案不仅会在未 来10年使美国赤字增加约3.3万亿美元，还会减少国家几十年内的税收收入。此种缺口 ...