Group 1: Core Views - The "Big, Beautiful Bill" signed by Trump aims to adjust tax and government spending to increase residents' income and guide the development direction of American industries, ultimately striving to make America great again [5][13] - The bill is controversial for its impact on healthcare, with claims that it may lead to 12 million Americans losing health insurance over the next decade [6][9] - The bill has provisions requiring able-bodied adults without children or disabilities to work at least 80 hours a month to qualify for medical assistance, which has sparked mixed public opinion [6][7][8] Group 2: Industry Policy - The most contentious aspect of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is its support for traditional energy while suppressing renewable energy, leading to conflicts between Trump and figures like Elon Musk [9] - Critics argue that the bill represents a strategic self-harm for the U.S., particularly in the context of the emerging artificial intelligence era, as it may weaken the American automotive industry and reduce clean energy job opportunities [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensifying trade conflict initiated by the U.S., with President Trump planning to notify over 170 countries about impending tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [1][3][10] - The U.S. has only successfully negotiated agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with both countries accepting tariffs of 10% and 20% respectively, showcasing the slow progress in negotiations with other nations [1][3] - Trump’s frustration with the slow negotiation process has led him to opt for a direct communication method, sending approximately 10 letters daily to inform countries of their respective tariff rates [1][3] Group 2 - The potential tariff rates for countries could range from 20% to 30%, with Japan facing threats of 30% to 35% tariffs due to stalled negotiations on key issues like rice and automobiles [3][7] - The European Union has taken a hardline stance, demanding the U.S. lift existing tariffs before any agreements can be made, while also preparing for potential retaliatory measures [3][10] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has emboldened Trump’s tariff policies, as it aims to fill the fiscal gap created by tax cuts and increased government spending through tariff revenues [4][5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has made recent moves to ease restrictions on exports to China, indicating a potential de-escalation in the trade war, contrasting with the aggressive tariff strategy towards other nations [8] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise export costs for countries closely trading with the U.S., potentially harming their economic growth and employment [10] - While tariffs may temporarily boost U.S. fiscal revenues, they could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation in the long run, negatively impacting American consumers [10]

Core Viewpoint - The "big and beautiful" fiscal plan by the U.S. government is viewed skeptically by Lombard Odier, which believes it will have limited positive impact on the economy and may worsen the fiscal outlook [1] Economic Impact - Lombard Odier forecasts that the budget plan will increase the federal deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade [1] - If tax cuts are made permanent, the deficit could increase even further [1] - The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 119% by around 2034 [1] Revenue and Spending - While tariff revenues may alleviate some fiscal pressure, the largest spending cuts will focus on healthcare and food assistance programs [1] - Most tax cuts are unlikely to significantly boost consumer spending [1] Economic Growth Projections - Lombard Odier maintains its previous economic growth forecasts for the U.S., predicting growth rates of 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Increasing food insecurity is reported among American adults, with 15.6% facing food shortages in May 2023, nearly double the rate from 2021 [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan proposed by Trump may exacerbate the situation by cutting food assistance programs, leading to millions of households losing aid [3][4] Group 1: Food Insecurity Trends - The percentage of adults experiencing food shortages has been gradually rising over the past few years, with current levels surpassing pre-pandemic figures [3] - The demand for food assistance has surged, with a 120% increase reported by food banks in Philadelphia compared to three years ago [3] Group 2: Legislative Impact - Recent legislation has significantly reduced food assistance, requiring states to bear more costs for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and tightening eligibility criteria [3][4] - The USDA estimates that over 42 million Americans will rely on SNAP benefits by March 2025, highlighting the critical support it provides to low-income families and vulnerable populations [4] Group 3: Economic Implications - The Republican perspective suggests that cutting these benefits could encourage more individuals to enter the workforce and reduce dependency on government aid, despite rising food costs making it increasingly difficult for Americans to afford basic necessities [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Asset Management estimates that the uncertainty from the tariff war will slow down U.S. economic growth in the second half of this year, but the "Inflation Reduction Act" will provide some support, and inflation is expected to decline to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by the end of next year [1] - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has provided greater certainty for business planning, but investors should focus on industry-specific tariffs, such as those affecting pharmaceuticals from the EU and automobiles from Japan and South Korea, which may persist after a potential Trump 2.0 administration [1] - The fiscal expansion and regulatory easing from the "Inflation Reduction Act" are expected to take effect later this year and continue to drive U.S. economic growth into next year, providing a positive catalyst for the stock market [1] Group 2 - The AI sector has shown strong recent performance, reflecting market recognition that the increasing prevalence of AI will significantly enhance efficiency, suppress prices, and stimulate consumption [2] - Investment opportunities are gradually shifting towards companies that can effectively apply AI, as AI transitions from a single theme to a tool for improving corporate performance across various industries [2] - Given the current policy and geopolitical uncertainties, investors are advised to diversify across different markets and sectors, with Chinese stocks playing an important role in global asset allocation [2]

Domestic Policy - The "Big, Beautiful Bill" aims to increase residents' income primarily through tax cuts, with the first five highlights focusing on tax reductions for middle- and working-class Americans [3][4] - The bill is controversial, particularly in the healthcare sector, with claims that it may lead to 12 million Americans losing their health insurance over the next decade [3][4] - A provision requires able-bodied adults without children or disabilities to work at least 80 hours per month to qualify for medical assistance, which has sparked debate about the implications for low-income individuals [4][5] Energy Policy - The bill has faced criticism for favoring traditional energy sources while suppressing renewable energy, leading to tensions between Trump and figures like Elon Musk [6][7] - Critics argue that the bill's energy policies could weaken the U.S. automotive industry and benefit China, particularly in the context of the upcoming AI-driven energy landscape [7][8] - The overall sentiment among some analysts is that the bill may not lead to the economic prosperity that Trump anticipates, with concerns about its long-term impact on energy supply and innovation [7][8]

Group 1 - The U.S. government under Trump is facing pressure from global economies regarding its tariff policies, particularly as the July 9 deadline approaches, leading to unilateral actions rather than negotiations [1][2] - Japan has been specifically targeted by the U.S. tariff policy, with Trump announcing a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles, significantly increasing from the previous 2.5% [5][7] - The increase in tariffs could force a complete restructuring of Japan's export industry to the U.S., potentially leading to severe impacts on the automotive sector [7] Group 2 - The tariff policy reflects Trump's commitment to the "Make America Great Again" agenda, but there are signs of political instability within his support base, especially after the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill [4] - If the tariff strategy proves successful, it may set a precedent for other countries to follow suit, reducing the need for individual negotiations [10] - Japan's political leadership may seek assistance in other areas following the tariff imposition, indicating potential for new diplomatic strategies [9]

据央视新闻，当地时间7月5日，马斯克在社交媒体平台"X"上宣布成立"美国党"。他和美国总 统特朗普从5月底起官宣"分手"、短暂和好，现又因"大而美"法案再度"开撕"。有美国媒体人 评价两人"都喜欢在网上发帖、不睡觉、自负······"今天好得如胶似漆，明天撕得天翻地覆。特 朗普传记作家评价两人：他们完全可以和好，再次成为兄弟，直到再次成为敌人。 不满"大而美"法案 马斯克屡屡开喷 这一边，特朗普的"大而美"法案最终以微弱优势在众议院获得通过，并在7月4日独立日这天 由特朗普签署后正式生效。 那一边，围绕这个法案，马斯克连发几十帖狂喷。他还对支持该法案的议员喊话，说等2026 年中期选举时，他会尽力让这些人在党内初选中落选。 而特朗普则在"真相社交"上回怼称马斯克"是靠联邦补贴起家的吸血鬼"，甚至暗示不排除将 其"遣返回南非"。 "大而美"法案为何令马斯克破防？ 这剧情是不是有点眼熟？5月22日，"大而美"法案在第一次在美国众议院涉险过关时，就打过 一轮嘴仗了。 那么，这个"大而美"法案为啥让马斯克屡屡破防暴怒？ 据央视新闻援引美媒，这项法案的内容之一是削减税收抵免，而此前该抵免政策一直用于鼓 励美国人购买电动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, highlighting a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market and the need for diversified asset allocation in a weak dollar scenario [2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies for Chinese Markets - A-shares and H-shares are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern, with potential upward space due to improved fundamentals and profit expectations [12][11]. - The technology sector, particularly in 5G, robotics, and AI applications, is anticipated to yield excess returns, supported by increased capital inflow from southbound funds [12][11]. - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises as defensive assets while also investing in technology and consumer sectors [13][14]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The RMB is projected to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, supported by a stable domestic economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][18]. - The current account surplus is expected to maintain around 1% of GDP, providing a solid foundation for RMB stability [15][18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy Predictions - Fiscal policy will focus on growth support and structural optimization, with an emphasis on social welfare, green transition, and new productivity [17]. - Monetary policy is likely to remain moderately loose, with potential for one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio cut within the year [18][19]. Group 4: Impact of U.S. Policies - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may raise concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability, potentially leading to increased market volatility and long-term economic challenges [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve's focus may shift from inflation control to growth preservation, with expected interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [22][23]. Group 5: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - A declining dollar index may relieve global debt burdens and shift capital flows towards non-dollar assets, increasing demand for gold, euros, and RMB [25][26]. - A diversified global stock allocation is recommended, with an emphasis on emerging markets and alternative investments as attractive options [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that recent Trump policies have made progress in areas such as finance, deregulation, and tariffs. The market has started to price in the medium - term "Goldilocks" scenario, bypassing short - term mild stagflation. There is a path from the current short - term mild stagflation (economic decline and inflation rise) to the "Goldilocks" scenario, and the probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policy combinations. However, the stability of this path remains to be confirmed [7]. 3. Summary according to Related Content Impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act - **Deficit Impact**: By 2035, the act will increase national debt issuance by $4.1 trillion. The fiscal deficit rates from 2026 - 2029 may all be above 7%, with the peak in 2028. Compared with not implementing the act, the deficit rates in 2026 and 2027 will increase by over 1 percentage point, which will have a certain stimulating effect on economic growth in the next two years [2]. - **Distribution Aspect**: Tax cuts are mainly TCJA extensions, tax - free deductions for tips and overtime pay, and an increase in the deduction limit for state and local taxes, showing regressive characteristics. Expenditure cuts focus on reducing welfare such as Medicaid and SNAP, reducing student loans, and canceling clean - energy tax incentives, which have a greater impact on low - income groups. The final act may cause the income of the bottom fifth of the population to decline by 2.9% (about $700), while the income of the top 1% will increase by 1.9% (about $30,000) [2][3]. - **Debt Ceiling**: The federal debt ceiling is raised by $5 trillion, the largest increase in history. This avoids the debt - ceiling issue before next year's mid - term elections and provides room for fiscal expansion in the next 2 - 3 years. It also affects the fiscal strength in the second half of this year compared to the first half. Additionally, the rapid replenishment of the TGA account may temporarily affect liquidity [3]. - **Clause Deletion**: Deleting the previous "Capital Tax" Clause 899 reduces the uncertainty for foreign investors, and the market may have already priced it in [4]. - **Industry Aspect**: In the United States, sectors such as semiconductors, defense, aerospace, and traditional energy are expected to benefit, while subsidies for the new - energy, electric - vehicle, and medical industries will be reduced, which is a negative factor. In terms of overall economic impact, the profitability of the consumer sector may be affected by tariffs. In the short term, focus on interest - sensitive growth sectors, and in the medium term, focus on fiscal - related pro - cyclical sectors [4]. Tariff Policy Concerns - **Tariff Rate Setting**: The US will start sending letters to countries as early as Friday to set new tariff rates before July 9, which will be implemented from August 1. Negotiations with key countries such as Europe and Japan may continue, and the new tariffs may postpone the negotiations until August 1, with the possibility of further postponement [5]. - **Tariff Rate Ranges**: The approximate tariff rate ranges for different countries are: about 10% for allied countries, about 20% for friendly countries, and over 30% for competing countries (referring to the 40% tariff on Vietnam's trans - shipped goods). Trump's claimed 60% - 70% tariff may have a punitive nature. The market's reaction to tariffs may continue to show a blunted characteristic, with expected disturbances but limited amplitude [5]. - **US - Vietnam Agreement**: The US will impose at least a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods from other countries trans - shipped through Vietnam. This further strengthens the prediction of tariff rate ranges. The direct impact on China is limited, and the US's intention to promote Vietnam's industrial chain localization through origin - related regulations can be hedged by China's strong industrial chain advantages in capital goods and raw materials, but the demonstrative effect is worthy of vigilance [6]. Outlook on the US Economic Scenario - **Short - term Situation**: In the short term, the US economy is in a state of mild stagflation with economic decline and inflation rise. However, there is a path to the "Goldilocks" scenario. The probability of this scenario has increased with the advancement of recent policies, and appropriate trading can be considered [7]. - **Stability Uncertainty**: The stability of this path needs to be confirmed. The key for the US economy not to enter a recession is that financial conditions should not tighten rapidly, which requires the stability of the US stock and bond markets. The specific impact of tariffs remains to be seen after the consumption of excess inventory. If inflation or corporate profitability deviates from expectations, market trading may shift again [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long run, the reconstruction of the global trade, financial, and geopolitical order is a more fundamental factor beyond economic growth rates [9].