国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡承压 | | • | 本周(20250724-0730)，中国尿素生产企业产量：135.48万吨，较上期涨0.01万吨，环比涨0.01%。周期内新增3家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计134-135万吨附近，较本期小幅减少。下个周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期可能3家企业装置计划停车，2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量小幅减少的概 | | | | 率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in urea plant maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, with daily production running at 19 - 20 million tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is sporadic, while compound fertilizer production has been continuously increasing, and it is expected that the demand for raw material replenishment will gradually increase. Other industrial demands remain stable. The inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed down, while the accumulation rate of port inventory has accelerated. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties on Friday night, it is expected that urea prices will first weaken and then strengthen in the short term, with support at 1700 - 1730 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price first strengthened and then weakened. On July 25, the closing price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,803 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 3.32%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,806 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.56% [2][4] - The basis of the urea main contract first strengthened and then weakened, with a weekly basis operating range of 0 - 55 yuan/ton. On July 25, the main contract basis in the Henan market was 3 yuan/ton, 48 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [2][7] - The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened and turned negative. On July 25, the 9 - 1 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 4 - 32 yuan/ton [2][7] Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 83.35%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.86%, an increase of 2.41 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 193,500 tons. The supply remains at a high level [2][10] Cost - The price of anthracite coal has shown a slight adjustment in a stable range. Downstream coal - using enterprises' raw material coal procurement is still mainly for rigid demand, and the acceptance of high - priced coal is generally low. The anthracite lump coal market was tepid, with stable prices, while the slack coal and clean coal markets continued to be strong, and coal prices still had an upward trend [13] Demand - The national summer harvest and sowing are basically completed. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.58%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, rising slightly for three consecutive weeks. Compound fertilizer enterprises are gradually entering the stage of fertilizer preparation and shipment, and they purchase raw material urea on dips. The production of fertilizer enterprises is gradually increasing, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer may continue to rise next week. The demand from other industries such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin remains stable [2][15] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the de - stocking rate has slowed down. Urea port inventory was 565,000 tons, an increase of 122,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory accumulation rate has accelerated. There were 2,523 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 50,460 tons [2][26] Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, urea plant production cuts and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Domestic production has declined, but corporate profits have rebounded, though the absolute level remains low. The cost - side support for urea is gradually strengthening. The compound fertilizer demand is weak, with slow growth in production and high finished - product inventory. Exports are progressing, and port inventories are rising. Overall, there is no significant unilateral trend, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: On Monday, influenced by the deepening of China's anti - involution policy, most domestic industrial products rose sharply. Urea also rose due to concerns about the elimination of backward production capacity, but it was mainly short - term sentiment. After the price peaked, the sentiment returned to rationality, and urea did not follow the continuous rise of black and some anti - involution related varieties [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Domestic urea operating rate is 83.59%, a 0.87% decline from last week, with a daily output of 19.52 tons. As the shipping date approaches, the port - collection is ongoing. Short - stop devices have increased, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover in August. Currently, the operating rate is continuously declining month - on - month but is at a relatively high level year - on - year [12]. - **Demand**: The increase in compound fertilizer operating rate is slow due to weak sales and high temperatures. This week, the operating rate is 33.58%, a 1.03% increase from last week, and the finished - product inventory is at a high level year - on - year. Domestic demand is average, and the corporate advance orders are 5.94 days, a 0.12 - day decrease from last week [12]. - **Profit and Valuation**: All process profits are at a medium - low level. The 09 basis is still weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is in a contango situation. The overall structure is weak under high inventory and export expectations. The export profit is high, and the domestic price is relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related nitrogen fertilizers is at a medium - low level, indicating that the spot valuation of urea is low [12]. - **Inventory**: This week, the corporate inventory is 85.88 tons, a 3.67 - ton decrease from last week, but the decline rate has slowed down. The port inventory is 54.3 tons, a 0.2 - ton increase from last week [12]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the raw material side has strengthened due to the anti - involution policy, but the actual impact on the urea industry is limited. The market is expected to return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Contract Prices**: The 09 contract closed at 1803, up 58 from a week ago; the 01 contract closed at 1807, up 87; the 05 contract closed at 1822, up 91. The 9 - 1 spread is - 4, a 29 - point decrease from a week ago; the 1 - 5 spread is - 15, a 4 - point decrease; the 5 - 9 spread is 19, a 33 - point increase [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: In Shandong, the price is 1790, a 40 - point decrease from a week ago; in Henan, it is 1830, a 10 - point decrease; in Hebei, it is 1780, a 10 - point increase. The Shandong basis is - 17, a 127 - point decrease from a week ago; the Henan basis is 23, a 97 - point decrease; the Hebei basis is - 27, a 77 - point decrease [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong remains unchanged at 2950, and the profit is - 28.8, a 7 - point increase from a week ago. In Hubei, the price is 2960, a 10 - point increase, and the profit is 18, a 9 - point increase. The melamine price is not available, and the profit is - 623, a 7 - point increase [13]. - **International Prices**: FOB Arabian Gulf is 478, a 2 - point decrease; FOB Baltic is 437.5, a 10 - point increase; FOB Yuzhny is 445, an 18 - point increase; FOB China is 435, a 25 - point increase; CFR Brazil is 452.5, an 8 - point decrease. The urea export profit is 1202, a 149 - point increase [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The overall production profit is at a low level, including fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production profits [32]. - **Inventory** - **Corporate Inventory**: The corporate inventory is decreasing, but the decline rate has slowed down. The end - of - month corporate inventory is expected to change as shown in the relevant charts [12][36]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory is increasing due to ongoing exports [12][36]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: There are planned new production capacities, and some enterprises' new production devices have been put into operation or are expected to be put into operation in the future [42][44]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including routine, fault - based, and policy - based maintenance, which has affected the production capacity [48][49]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: The monthly consumption shows certain seasonal characteristics. The demand from downstream industries such as compound fertilizers, melamine, and terminal industries like plywood and real estate also affects the overall demand for urea [54][60][68]. - **Export**: Urea export has high profits, and the export volume and regions are shown in the relevant charts [79][80]. 3.6. Option - related - The report shows the option positions, trading volume, position PCR, trading PCR, and volatility of urea options [90][92]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [95][98][100].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market shows a mixed situation. Although the international urea price remains strong, the second - batch of domestic export quotas is significantly lower than the first - batch, and the domestic supply is in excess with high daily production and开工率, and weak demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The main influencing factors include the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change of export policy [5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has rebounded recently. The international urea price is strong, but the second - batch of domestic export quotas is 120,000 tons, lower than the first - batch of 200,000 tons. The domestic supply side has high daily production and开工率, and the inventory has increased again. The industrial demand for compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and the agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63, and the premium/discount ratio is - 3.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. The international urea price is strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors include high production and daily output, weak domestic demand, and lower - than - expected export quotas [5] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1,710 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1,720 (unchanged), and FOB China price is 2,545 [6] | | Futures Market | UR01 price is 1,779 (-30), UR05 price is 1,793 (-22), UR09 price is 1,773 (-44), and the basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63 (+44) [6] | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2,523 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.177 million tons, and UR port inventory is 245,000 tons [6] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea market is in a stage of continuous abundant supply and relatively weak demand. With the support of technological transformation and national supply - guarantee policies, the domestic urea production devices are operating at a high load, with the daily output stabilizing at around 190,000 tons, a five - year peak. Newly added production capacity will keep the supply abundant in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the extended agricultural off - season and slow industrial recovery have led to a dull market. The substantial improvement of demand depends on the start of autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. Policy and coal price factors strengthen the support for urea prices. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound due to demand support, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities based on factors such as autumn fertilizer production, winter storage policies, legal inspection systems, and coal price fluctuations [1][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Market Review - Since the listing of urea futures in 2019, the main contract price has fluctuated between 1,500 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton. From August to December 2019 and throughout 2020, the price was under pressure due to factors such as weakened cost support, production capacity expansion, and tightened export policies. After September 2024, the price dropped to a low - level range again. As of July 21, 2025, the UR2509 contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, still in a low - level oscillation pattern. The current supply - demand situation features high supply, weak domestic demand, marginal export support, and a rebound in coal prices, causing the price to oscillate in the low - level range [3]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The cost of different production processes: the cost of natural - gas - based urea production is 1,965 yuan/ton, the fixed - bed process cost is 1,917 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed process cost is 1,478 yuan/ton. Due to intensified industry competition, the profit margin of urea production has narrowed. The current gross profit of fixed - bed urea production is - 117 yuan/ton, that of entrained - flow bed is 362 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production is - 185 yuan/ton. When the urea price reaches around 1,600 yuan/ton, it will receive cost support [7]. Industrial Structure Analysis Supply Overview - China's urea production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and the total output has been increasing. It is expected that the total urea production capacity will exceed 80 million tons in 2025, with new production capacity from Hubei Sanning Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulan Group, and Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan. In the first half of 2025, China's urea output reached 36.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.18%. The daily output has steadily recovered to a high level, with an average daily output of 200,000 tons, keeping the supply pattern loose [12][18]. Demand Overview - Domestic urea demand is divided into agricultural and industrial demand, with the overall downstream demand being relatively stable. Agricultural demand accounts for about 70%, mainly for major crops such as corn, rice, and wheat. Industrial demand accounts for about 30%, mainly used in areas such as urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, thermal power denitrification, and vehicle urea. The weekly capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and the average operating load rate of the melamine industry have been relatively stable in recent years, indicating stable urea demand [20][21]. Inventory Analysis - With the continuous commissioning of new urea production facilities, the inventory of urea enterprises is at a historically high level, with the latest inventory at 741,000 tons. Under the "orderly export" policy in 2025, the port inventory is 443,000 tons and is slowly rising [24]. Import - Export Analysis - China is the world's largest urea producer, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity. The export volume in 2023 was 4.25 million tons, 260,600 tons in 2024, and 77,200 tons from January to June 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 44.17%. India plans to stop importing urea by the end of 2025. The industry has established an export self - discipline mechanism, emphasizing the "domestic priority" principle. Head - leading enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity layout to break through export constraints [29][34]. Market Outlook - The supply will remain abundant in the second half of the year, while the demand is in a cyclical trough. The market trading atmosphere is dull, and the substantial improvement of demand depends on autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. The inventory situation is divided, and the enterprise inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, while the port inventory change depends on export policies. Policy and coal price factors strengthen price support. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities [35].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to show a volatile trend today. Although the international urea price is strong and agricultural demand has improved to some extent, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the urea futures market has been volatile. International situation fluctuations have led to a tight urea supply, with international urea prices being strong, and the impact has partially spread to the domestic market. In terms of supply, the operating rate and daily production are at recent highs, and inventory has shown slight fluctuations. On the demand side, in industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has continued to decline, and the operating rate of melamine has also decreased. Agricultural demand expectations have turned weak again. The overall supply of urea still significantly exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1880 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 166, with a premium - discount ratio of 8.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract of urea shows a volatile trend. The international urea price is strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and a marginal improvement in domestic agricultural demand. Bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, as well as high - year - on - year inventory. The main logic lies in international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Quotes | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Quotes** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1880 (-10), Shandong spot price is 1880 (-10), Henan spot price is 1900 (0), and FOB China price is 2547 [6]. | | **Futures Quotes** | The price of the 09 contract is 1717 (-7), UR01 is 1684 (2), UR05 is 1696 (5), and the basis of the UR09 contract is 163 (-3) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 500, UR comprehensive inventory is 980,000 tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 817,000 tons, and UR port inventory is 163,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The urea market is currently in a state of shock. International factors lead to a tight supply and rising prices, which have a partial impact on the domestic market. Although agricultural demand has improved, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International supply shortages have caused prices to rise, affecting the domestic market. Supply-side production has reached a multi-year high, and inventory has declined. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer industry's production has decreased, the melamine industry's production has increased, and agricultural demand has improved. The overall supply still significantly exceeds demand, and export policies remain unchanged. The spot price of the delivery product is 1920 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 180, with a premium/discount ratio of 9.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 980,000 tons (-218,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, while the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, and agricultural demand has improved, but the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. Therefore, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International prices are strong, and domestic agricultural demand has marginally improved [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Production and daily output are at a high level, and inventory is higher than the same period last year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The main factors influencing the market are international supply and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1920, the Shandong spot price is 1930, the Henan spot price is 1920, and the FOB China price is 2548 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR09 contract is 1740 (+24), the price of the UR01 contract is 1697 (+30), and the price of the UR05 contract is 1705 (+19). The basis of the UR09 contract is 180 (-42) [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend. Capacity growth rates varied from 8.4% - 15.5%, and consumption growth rates ranged from 0.3% - 17.9% [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market sentiment remains weak, with the decline in spot factory - gate prices in major regions widening and trading sluggish. It is expected that urea futures and spot prices will be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to domestic export dynamics [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, urea futures fluctuated widely, closing at 1698 (-16/-0.93%). In the spot market, the factory - gate prices continued to decline, with prices in different regions as follows: Henan 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1780 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1620 - 1680 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1620 - 1690 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On June 24, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.86 tons, 0.12 tons less than the previous working day and 2.91 tons more than the same period last year. The current operating rate was 85.79%, 7.52% higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Market sentiment is still low, with increased price drops in major regions and weak trading. Shandong and Henan regions are expected to see continued price drops. The factory - gate prices in areas around the delivery zone are following the downward trend. Although some plants are under maintenance and daily production is below 200,000 tons, it is still at a record high for the same period. The end of the Middle - East conflict has stabilized international prices, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets has a certain positive impact on domestic sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China is low, and overall demand is declining. Although the port inspection policy for exports has been relaxed, its impact on domestic spot is limited. With prices dropping to around 1700 yuan/ton, demand remains weak, and it is expected that urea futures and spot will be weak in the short - term [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Bearish - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently characterized by an obvious oversupply situation. The supply side shows high operating rates and daily production, with new device put into operation recently and a slight increase in inventory. On the demand side, the industrial demand sees a decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate, a neutral operating rate for melamine, and short - term weak agricultural demand. Although the export profit is high due to the implementation of export policies and the dual - track price system, it has little impact on domestic prices. The report predicts that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has been falling recently. Supply is abundant with high operating rates, daily production, and new device commissioning, leading to a slight inventory build - up. Industrial demand in compound fertilizer is weakening, melamine operating rate is neutral, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. There is an obvious oversupply. The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged). Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 204, with a premium - discount ratio of 11.0%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the decline of the main urea contract, high daily production, slight inventory build - up, and short - term weak agricultural demand, the overall oversupply is obvious. It is expected that the UR will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Market - **Bullish Factors**: None mentioned explicitly. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, new device commissioning, and overall weak demand. The main logic is oversupply and marginal changes in demand. The main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the deliverable is 1850 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1850 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China is 1869 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract is 1646 (-21), UR01 is 1635 (-12), and UR05 is 1664 (-21). The basis is 204 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.31 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. The production volume has also generally increased, but the growth rate of apparent consumption has fluctuated. The import dependence has been decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].