1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the UR601 contract, urea is likely to decline in the short - term but has limited downside space, with support at the 1700 price level [3]. - The reasons include increasing domestic plant maintenance plans with limited impact on overall supply, high production and operation rates year - on - year; domestic demand entering the off - season, limited overall support from industrial compound fertilizer demand; weakening cost support, with urea cost support moving down to around 1500 - 1600; and the gradual implementation of export policies, with attention on the specific export volume later [3]. - Urea is in a pattern with upward pressure and downward support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but coal - based production costs are at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [7]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, domestic maintenance devices have increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. Domestic production remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply remains loose [7]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, this week, the market reported that China has a new third - batch of export quotas, with an estimated quantity of 70 - 100 tons, and the total export quota this year has reached over 4 million tons. From the current port inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [7]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Spot Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market stopped falling and rose, with the average price in the mainstream regions rising by about 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. However, the domestic demand has continued to weaken, and the price increase lasted for a short time [24]. - **Regional Price Difference**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range [36]. - **Futures Price**: With the implementation of the third - batch of export quota news, the speculative sentiment in the market has subsided, and the UR01 contract has declined weakly in the premium pattern [8]. - **Price Difference/Base Difference/Monthly Difference**: This week, the 9 - 1 price difference has strengthened by 3 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the rise in spot prices and the decline of the futures market, the base difference has strengthened. For example, the base difference of the 01 contract in Henan has strengthened by 48 yuan/ton compared with last week [92]. 3.3 Urea Profit - **Coal - based Production**: Recently, the coal price in the production area has fluctuated slightly, and the profit of coal - based urea has increased slightly [65]. - **Gas - based Production**: The natural gas price under the agreement is stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has remained stable [65]. 3.4 Urea and Other Fertilizer Ratios - Currently, the ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are at a relatively low level compared with previous years [69]. 3.5 Overseas Price and Price Difference - India has carried out a new round of tenders, and with China's clearer policy of allowing more urea exports, the international urea price has fallen this week [84]. 3.6 Urea Production, Operation, and Inventory - **Production and Operation**: According to the Longzhong data, this week, the domestic urea production was 1.3611 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 83.99%, an increase of 0.77%. According to the Baichuan data, the production was 1.3865 million tons, an increase of 8000 tons from the previous period, and the operation rate was 84.72%, an increase of 0.49% [95][103]. - **Device Investment and Maintenance**: As of August 2025, the newly - invested production capacity this year is 1.85 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 2.45%. It is estimated that the newly - added production capacity in 2025 will be 4.94 million tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55%. This week, the domestic urea device maintenance loss was 179,000 tons, a decrease of 12,900 tons from last week [108][111]. - **Inventory**: This week, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, and the port inventory was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from last week [160]. 3.7 Urea Downstream Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: This week, the compound fertilizer market price was stable, the operation rate decreased by 2.64% to 40.84%, and the inventory increased by 63,000 tons to 889,500 tons compared with last week [132]. - **Melamine**: This week, the melamine production was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 1600 tons from last week, and the operation rate was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22% [140].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic urea market currently has a loose supply situation, with the daily output reaching around 195,000 tons, at a record high for the same period. The overall demand is declining, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in central and northern China, and limited domestic demand in the short - term. However, India's new tender for 2 million tons of urea with a shipping date at the end of October provides some support to the domestic market under the relaxed export policy. The spot market sentiment is generally stable, and some regions may see price adjustments [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures opened lower and trended downward, closing at 1,776 yuan (-13/-0.73%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices rose with average trading volume. Ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1,720 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1,720 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1,650 - 1,660 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1,740 - 1,750 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1,580 - 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On August 20, the daily output of the urea industry was 195,200 tons, 1,800 tons less than the previous working day (revised to 196,800 tons) and 27,200 tons more than the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 84.33%, 8.14% higher than 76.19% in the same period last year [4]. Logic Analysis - **Market Sentiment and Price Trends**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices led the increase, with general market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the ex - factory prices followed the increase. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory prices were weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled. Overall, it is expected that the ex - factory prices in Shandong and Henan will remain stable, while those around the delivery area may decline [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is loose, with the average daily output returning to around 195,000 tons. The demand is weak, as the compound fertilizer industry in central and northern China has low enthusiasm, and the grass - roots have no intention to stock up. The compound fertilizer plants' inventory can last for more than half a month, and the demand for raw materials is low. The urea production enterprise inventory increased by 66,500 tons to around 1.0239 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - **Impact of Indian Tender**: India's new tender for 2 million tons of urea with a shipping date at the end of October provides some support to the domestic market under the relaxed export policy. However, when the ex - factory prices rise to around 1,750 yuan/ton, the downstream starts to wait and see [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Buy on dips, do not chase the market [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell put options on pullbacks [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but export profits remain strong despite a recent decline, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today, with the international urea price remaining strong [4]. - The main bullish factor is the strong international price, while the main bearish factors are the high production and low domestic demand. The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled, the urea futures price returned to the fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 33, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic market is still in a state of oversupply [4]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1860 (unchanged), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2944 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1817 (+ 63), the basis is 33 (- 63), the price of UR05 is 1839 (+ 49), and the price of UR09 is 1783 (+ 25) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 3573 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 0.968 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 0.489 million tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand weakened and urea ex - factory quotes mainly declined. This week, due to the new Indian tender, urea prices stopped falling and rebounded. Some device overhauls led to the daily output dropping to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender of 2 million tons with a September 2nd bid - closing date and an end - of - October shipping date, along with relaxed export policies, boosted the domestic market sentiment. However, overall demand was declining, with high inventories and cautious traders. In the short term, domestic demand was limited, but the Indian tender and low domestic prices were expected to support the market and lead to a short - term bottoming [4]. - Trading strategies include going long on the single - side when prices are low, observing for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment was stable, with ex - factory quotes in some areas stabilizing or adjusting. Shandong's quotes rebounded, Henan's remained stable, and prices in the delivery area and its surrounding areas were expected to decline. The overall supply was abundant, and demand was weak, but the Indian tender had a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250807 - 0813), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 85.51%, up 1.85% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 75.77%, down 0.76% month - on - month. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, down 1.12% month - on - month [5]. - **Demand**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (20250808 - 0814), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points from the previous week. In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250801 - 0807), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizer's urea demand was 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points month - on - month. As of August 13, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.29 days, down 0.24 days from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory**: On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month - on - month, with a decline rate of 3.93% [5]. - **Valuation**: The prices of Jincheng anthracite lump coal and Yulin pulverized coal rebounded, while the urea spot price declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 110 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 210 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 360 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, with a basis of - 80 yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 17 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1 - As of August 18, urea futures showed a strong performance with the main contract priced at 1755.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - Urea prices in various regions include Shandong at 1680-1710 CNY/ton, Hebei at 1710 CNY/ton, and Xinjiang at 1550 CNY/ton, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons [2] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 887,600 tons, which is lower than last week's expectations, while port sample inventory is 483,000 tons, higher than last week's expectations [2] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Futures indicates that while production is expected to slightly recover, upstream urea enterprise inventories have accumulated due to slow domestic demand [3] - Wukuang Futures notes that domestic production has shifted from decline to increase, with overall supply remaining relatively loose, but agricultural demand is entering a low season [3] - Current market conditions are weak, but with low enterprise profits and limited downside potential, there may be opportunities for price recovery if positive news emerges [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The urea market is in a state of obvious oversupply in China, with high daily production and operating rates, and weak domestic demand. Although the international price is strong and export profits are increasing, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures market is expected to be volatile today [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, the urea market returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and inventories are accumulating again. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is declining, and agricultural demand is also expected to fall. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, but the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in capacity, production, and consumption. The capacity growth rate has fluctuated, reaching a high of 15.5% in 2020. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate also fluctuated, with a peak of 17.9% in 2020. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Quotes - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product and Shandong and Henan spot prices are all 1810, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2748 [6]. - **Futures**: The 01 contract price is 1747 (-9), the UR05 contract price is 1788 (-8), and the UR09 contract price is 1726 (-1). The basis is 63 (+9) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6].

【冠通研究】 库存增加，盘面震荡整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 13 日 现货方面：市场成交氛围暂未好转，上游工厂开启降价吸单，目前来看效 果一般。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1680-1700 元/吨，个别工厂成交价略低。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 今日低开高走尾盘收平。昨天低价成交顺畅，上游工厂待发充足，今日现 货报价低位反弹。基本面来看，夏季尿素工厂装置多发临检，日产目前位于 19 万吨左右上下波动，环比减弱但同比依然偏高。停车与复产并行，产量窄幅波 动。需求端，工业需求有韧性，但后续受阅兵影响，京津冀地区尿素下游三聚 氰胺陆续停产，复合肥工厂开工也将逐步开始减量，目前厂内成品库存不断攀 升，由于市场普遍看空且复合肥工厂无大幅囤货备库的准备，对原料尿素的跟 进适量补库为主，后续集中拿货的概率低。整体内需不足，市场行情不温不 火。库存端，本期厂内库存累库，主要系农需结束后，下游工厂拿货积极性不 佳。整体来说，出口短暂未给尿素企业带来更大的增量，受内需拖累，市场依 然处于供需宽松的格局，但下跌空间较小，另外本月后续将 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a volatile and relatively strong trend. However, the trading atmosphere in the market has not improved. Upstream factories have started to cut prices to attract orders, but the effect is mediocre. The urea plant equipment has experienced multiple temporary inspections, and the daily production is currently fluctuating around 190,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease but still being high year - on - year. There is an expectation of a short - term increase in production. On the demand side, affected by the military parade, downstream melamine production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be shut down one after another, and the operation of compound fertilizer plants will also start to decrease. The finished product inventory in the plants is rising, and the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. The inventory in the plants has decreased slightly this period, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the short term. Although the downstream has no intention to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being, the demand has resilience. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer plants, the downside space for urea is limited. Affected by the military parade this month, downstream demand will weaken in the short term, and the market will be mainly in a weak consolidation state [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher, with a volatile and relatively strong trend. The trading atmosphere has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. Urea plant equipment has had multiple temporary inspections, with daily production around 190,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month but high year - on - year. One enterprise is expected to resume production this week, with a short - term production increase expected. Downstream demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be affected by the military parade, and the probability of concentrated purchases is low. The plant inventory has decreased slightly and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The demand has resilience, and the downside space for urea is limited. The market will be in a weak consolidation state in the short term due to the military parade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1722 yuan/ton, moved higher, and closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 91,810 lots, a decrease of 17,964 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 11,492 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,616 lots. Rongda Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,045 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 756 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 2,198 lots, and Hongyuan Futures' net short positions increased by 2,066 lots. On August 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,823, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day, with 200 more from Liaoning Fertilizer [2] Spot - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,660 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable and slightly weak today, while the futures closing price increased slightly. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.62% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. The recent urea futures market has been oscillating, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is increasing, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR futures will oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The daily production and operating rate of domestic urea are still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has increased again. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to continue to fall. The overall over - supply situation in the domestic urea market is still obvious, while the export profit is strengthening, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 59, and the premium - discount ratio is 3.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic over - supply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is that the international price is strong; the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Market Conditions | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1810 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1810 (-23), and the FOB China price is 2750 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1751 (unchanged), the basis is 59 (+10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1790 (+6), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1722 (-6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 3623 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.019 million tons (-77,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 440,000 tons (+59,000 tons) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10] |