"新债王"杰弗里·冈德拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）警告，按照目前的趋势，到年底美国CPI可能突破4%，但 因为流动性危机及美国政府外部冲击，美联储可能最终不得不在高通胀环境下开启降息，甚至启动 YCC。 5月8日，Gundlach在接受CNBC采访时表示，美联储在45分钟发布会上只传达了一个信息：对于利率走 向，未来有太多的不确定性，目前不知道会发生什么。考虑到美联储不会基于"软数据"做评估的暗示， 这意味着当情况恶化时（被迫降息），恶化的状况要足够大。 Gundlach警告，考虑到目前的状况，到今年年底，美国通胀率大概率突破4%，在高通胀环境下，美联 储可能不该降息，因为这可能在长期带来更大的麻烦。但最终美联储可能不得不降息，甚至启动 YCC： 如果利率变得令人不安的高。美国政府、财政部或美联储会产生某种外生冲击，他们可能会 进行收益率曲线控制。这将会非常困难。 我确实认为他们会降息，但不是因为通胀数据变得很好。而是因为流动性不足问题，美联储 最终会降息。 以下为访谈内容节选： 史蒂夫・利斯曼： 斯科特，我可以把这整个45分钟的新闻发布会总结成一个问题，我说，你先倾向于哪一个方 向？这是鲍威尔的 ...

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes that expanding consumer demand is more effective than capacity reduction policies in addressing low inflation, as service prices have dropped to historical lows, which is the core issue of the current price cycle [1][10] - If consumption policies are strengthened, service prices could rise by 2 percentage points, leading to a GDP deflator increase from -0.7% to +0.39%, which would be more beneficial than the effects of capacity reduction [1][10] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current price pressure is primarily demand-driven, with the second industry contributing only 48% to the current low inflation, significantly lower than previous years [1][10] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the introduction of buying and selling government bonds as a new monetary policy tool in China, aimed at managing interest rate risks amid a declining yield environment [2][12] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has primarily focused on buying government bonds to release liquidity, given the current low inflation environment [2][12] - The effectiveness of these operations will depend on the central bank's ability to provide clear forward guidance to shape market expectations [2][12] Company Analysis: Zhengfan Convertible Bonds - Zhengfan Convertible Bonds are expected to list at a price between 115.63 and 128.82 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0048% [3][15] - The bonds have a solid debt protection feature, with a conversion premium rate of approximately 25% anticipated on the first day of listing [3][15] - Zhengfan Technology has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.10% from 2019 to 2023, and a revenue of 38.35 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 41.78% year-on-year increase [3][15] Company Analysis: Kelun-Botai - Kelun-Botai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.3 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 12.74 billion yuan, up 67.8% [5][16] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in multiple products as they commercialize, with significant clinical data supporting their efficacy [5][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 17.8 billion and 35.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected revenue of 58.9 billion yuan in 2027 [5][16] Company Analysis: China National Materials - China National Materials reported a total revenue of 461.27 billion yuan for 2024, a 0.7% increase, and a net profit of 29.83 billion yuan, up 2.3% [6][19] - The company has shown resilience in its Q4 performance, with overseas engineering and operation maintenance businesses performing well [6][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][19]