| | | | | 期指：或呈现震荡格局 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4691.97 | ↓0.51 | | 5715.6 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4682.4 | ↓0.37 | -9.57 | 350.9 | 24886 | ↓1366 | 41097 | ↓630 | | IF2512 | 4669.6 | ↓0.33 | -22.37 | 1019 | 72481 | ↑1407 | 155110 | ↓2675 | | IF2603 | 4640.2 | ↓0.33 | -51.77 | 171.5 | 12271 | ↓228 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes "putting economic construction at the center" for the first time in ten years, aiming for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [1] - The focus on "daring to fight and being good at fighting" is reiterated, which is beneficial for gaining initiative in both domestic and international contexts, and overcoming reform obstacles [1] - New productive forces are positioned as a core strategic priority, highlighting the goal of "seizing the technological high ground" and the ambition of becoming a "strong aerospace nation" [1] - In the consumer sector, the proposal to lead new supply with new demand aims to cultivate new consumption growth points [1] - The guidance for economic work in the fourth quarter emphasizes ensuring the successful completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, with a focus on policies that connect with next year [1] Precious Metals Sector - The proposal suggests developing emerging pillar industries, accelerating the growth of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which could create several trillion-yuan markets [2] - In the photovoltaic industry chain, the copper-to-silver technology is becoming a focal point for solar cell development, with companies like Poly and Dike focusing on its application [2] - The strong performance of silver prices, influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, significantly increases the cost burden of silver paste in photovoltaic cells [2] - The application of copper instead of silver is expected to scale up by 2026, which will lower material costs and negatively impact medium-term silver demand in photovoltaics [2] - After the end of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, high silver prices are unlikely to sustain long-term [2] Future Industry Development - The proposal also outlines forward-looking layouts for future industries, promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [3] - In the hydrogen energy sector, platinum is a crucial component of PEM electrolyzers and fuel cells, which convert hydrogen energy into electricity [3] - Some hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are already in trial operation, offering advantages such as long range, near-zero emissions, and fast refueling, indicating potential for further promotion [3] - The World Platinum Investment Council projects that hydrogen applications will drive platinum demand to 900,000 ounces by 2030, accounting for 10% of total platinum demand, becoming a new growth point after catalytic converters and jewelry [3] - Limited growth in platinum supply over the next few years suggests that platinum prices are likely to perform strongly [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of forward-looking layout in future industries as a key strategy to seize the global technological competition and shape new development momentum [2][3] - The "Suggestions" document targets future industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [1][2] - The article highlights that since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has accelerated its technological layout in key future industry areas, achieving breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, quantum information, and hydrogen energy storage [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for institutional guarantees and policy support to transform these future industries into new economic engines, including innovative regulatory methods and the development of venture capital [2][3] - It mentions the importance of large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, products, and scenarios to accelerate the scale development of emerging industries [3] - The article concludes that these emerging industries will inject continuous new momentum into China's high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of forward-looking layout in future industries as a key to seizing the global technological competition and shaping new development momentum [2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests promoting quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [1] - The article highlights that breakthroughs in future industries, such as artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, quantum information, and hydrogen energy storage, have been achieved since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for institutional guarantees and policy support to transform these future industries into new engines of growth [2] - It mentions the importance of innovative regulatory methods, development of venture capital, and establishment of mechanisms for investment growth and risk sharing in future industries [2] - The article outlines a series of initiatives aimed at accelerating the large-scale development of emerging industries, which are expected to inject continuous new momentum into high-quality economic development [3]

Core Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the cultivation and expansion of emerging and future industries [1] Group 1: Emerging Industries - The plan focuses on building new pillar industries and implementing industrial innovation projects, promoting the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [1] - There is an emphasis on improving the industrial ecosystem and implementing large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, products, and scenarios to accelerate the scale development of emerging industries [1] Group 2: Future Industries - The recommendations advocate for forward-looking layouts in future industries, exploring diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulatory rules [1] - Key areas identified for economic growth include quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication [1] Group 3: Investment and Innovation - The plan calls for innovative regulatory methods and the development of venture capital, establishing mechanisms for growth in future industry investments and risk-sharing [1] - It aims to promote the specialized and innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises and nurture unicorn companies [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating and expanding emerging and future industries, aiming to establish new pillar industries [1] - It highlights the implementation of industrial innovation projects, focusing on the construction of innovation facilities, technology research and development, and product iteration and upgrading [1] - The article discusses the acceleration of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy through cluster development [1] Group 2 - It mentions the need to improve the industrial ecosystem by implementing large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies, products, and scenarios, thereby accelerating the scale development of emerging industries [1] - The article outlines a forward-looking layout for future industries, exploring diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules [1] - It identifies quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [1] Group 3 - The article calls for innovative regulatory methods, the development of venture capital, and the establishment of mechanisms for growth and risk sharing in future industry investments [1] - It promotes the specialized and innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises and the cultivation of unicorn companies [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the development of hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion as new economic growth points, alongside other advanced technologies like quantum science and bio-manufacturing [4] - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by technological advancements such as intelligent driving and humanoid robots, which aligns with the policy focus on "industrial technology + boosting domestic demand" [4] Group 2 - Ziyuan Food reported a revenue of 2.514 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.43%, with a net profit of 194 million yuan, down 44.37% [4] - Jinzhai Food achieved a revenue of 1.808 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, but its net profit decreased by 19.51% to 173 million yuan [5] - Dongpeng Beverage's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.13%, with a net profit of 3.761 billion yuan, up 38.91% [7] - Zhongju Gaoxin reported a revenue of 3.156 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 34.07% [8] - Sanofi Biotech's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.453 billion yuan, an increase of 8.52%, but its net profit fell by 17.36% to 211 million yuan [9]

Market Overview - A-shares' three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, reaching a new 10-year high at 3996.94 points, up 1.18% with a trading volume of 1.0434 trillion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.40 points, with a trading volume of 1.2967 trillion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.98% to 3234.45 points, with a trading volume of 615.4 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The storage chip sector saw significant gains, with companies like Jiangbolong, Tuojing Technology, and Zhaoyi Innovation reaching historical highs [2] - The small metals sector also performed well, with Xiamen Tungsten and Dongfang Tantalum both hitting the daily limit [2] - The computing hardware sector remained active, with companies such as Xinyisheng and Shengyi Technology reaching new highs [2] - Conversely, the gaming sector experienced declines, with stocks like Youzu Network and Giant Network falling [2] - The wind power equipment sector also lagged, with companies like Haili Wind Power and Pangu Intelligent seeing significant drops [2] Institutional Insights - Jifeng Investment noted that the market is in a strong rebound phase, driven by both expectations and fundamentals, with the possibility of breaking through the 4000-point mark increasing [3] - The firm highlighted the importance of focusing on sectors with expected earnings growth, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy [3] - Rongzhi Investment pointed out that despite the market reaching new highs, caution remains prevalent among investors, as indicated by low sentiment indicators [3] - The firm emphasized the need for quality stock selection and allocation in light of upcoming important meetings and policy directions [3] Future Outlook - Huafu Fund anticipates that strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace will see significant market growth, potentially creating trillion-level markets [4] - The fund highlighted that sectors like quantum technology and hydrogen energy could become new economic growth points over the next decade [4] - Overall, the technology sector is expected to be a focal point for investment, with defensive asset combinations being beneficial [4] Regulatory News - Relevant authorities are reportedly preparing to standardize the naming of "semi-solid batteries" to "solid-liquid batteries" to avoid market confusion [5] Economic Data - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, totaling 53,732 billion yuan [6] - State-owned enterprises saw a slight decline in profits, while private enterprises experienced a growth of 5.1% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is experiencing a significant resurgence, driven by a focus on original innovation and key core technologies, as emphasized in recent meetings and announcements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares, particularly the Growth Enterprise Market and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 indices, saw substantial gains in the afternoon, with major ETFs like the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (159783) and Cloud Computing 50 ETF (516630) rising over 2% [1]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by more than 1.5%, with the largest Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) following suit, rising nearly 2% [1]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The emphasis on "original innovation and key core technologies" indicates a heightened urgency for technological self-sufficiency, with priority sectors identified as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [1]. - Future industry directions include quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications [1]. - Key technology breakthroughs are targeted in integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments, while digital economy initiatives are particularly focused on artificial intelligence [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is advised to focus on the "big technology" theme, with attention on AI computing power and applications, robotics, high-end equipment manufacturing (including semiconductor supply chains, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and aerospace), new materials, and future industries [1]. - There is a recommendation to pay attention to "mergers and acquisitions" as a significant theme in the current market landscape [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1.1% and approaching the 4000-point mark, driven by sectors such as electronic chemicals, shipbuilding, steel, and small metals [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has seen significant inflows, with a net subscription of 9 million units on the day of reporting, following a total net inflow of approximately 69 million yuan over the previous three trading days [2] - The ETF's third-quarter report indicates a net asset value growth rate of 18.22%, outperforming its benchmark (China Securities 2000 Index) which grew by 14.31%, resulting in an excess return of 3.91% [4][5] - Over longer periods, the ETF has shown impressive performance with growth rates of 34.46% over six months, 67.74% over one year, and 98.86% since inception, all significantly surpassing their respective benchmarks [4][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - The third-quarter report highlights a clear divergence in market styles, with growth styles outperforming value styles, while large-cap stocks have rebounded significantly, particularly in the technology sector [6] - Various institutions predict that the market will continue its strong performance, with expectations of improved corporate earnings and resilient domestic demand, particularly in the TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [7] - The ETF's active investment portion focuses on technology and manufacturing, with significant allocations in manufacturing and information technology services, indicating a strategic emphasis on these sectors [8]