新华财经纽约8月14日电（记者刘亚南）随着市场继续评估俄美领导人15日会晤可能带来的影响，国际 油价在隔夜市场走强，14日早盘涨幅显著扩大，随后强势盘整，收盘时国际油价明显上涨。 新加坡市场交易平台Phillip Nova公司分析师普理杨卡·萨赫德瓦（Priyanka Sachdeva）认为，在宏观经济 形势变得更为清晰和需求信号出现之前，原油价格看起来会区间波动，油价上涨的理由有限。今年和明 年，石油供应将超出需求，市场倾向于下行。 美国银行大宗商品和衍生品研究主管弗朗西斯科·布兰奇（Francisco Blanch）表示，重申今年下半年看 空油价走势的立场，预计布伦特原油期货下半年平均处于每桶63.5美元的水平，并将跌破每桶60美元水 平。 布兰奇预计，从今年7月到2026年6月，市场上将会出现89万桶／日的供应过剩，全球石油库存将增加1 亿桶。 （文章来源：新华财经） 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.31美元，收于每桶63.96美元，涨幅 为2.09%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.21美元，收于每桶66.84美元，涨幅为1.84%。 美国总统特朗普13日在华盛 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28, or 0.43%, to $65.91 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increasing by $0.23, or 0.37%, to $62.89 per barrel [1] - The previous decline in oil prices was influenced by bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which led both benchmarks to hit two-month lows [1][3] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is injecting a risk premium into the market, with potential economic sanctions hinted at if no peace consensus is reached regarding Ukraine [3] Group 2 - Rystad Energy noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia negotiations has increased the bullish risk premium in the oil market, as Russian oil buyers may face greater economic pressure [3] - The IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and rising output from non-OPEC countries [4] - The short-term price movement of WTI crude is supported around $62.50, with resistance observed between $64.20 and $64.50, which is close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical factors and expectations of monetary policy easing, which are pushing up risk premiums, while increasing inventories and supply expansion are exerting downward pressure [5] - The outcome of the U.S.-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are expected to significantly influence market volatility in the near term [5]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI主力开盘价63.85美元/桶，收盘价63.35美元/桶，最高价64.58美元/桶，最低价62.77美元/桶，涨跌幅-0.83%，成交量29.30万手；Brent主力开盘价66.42美元/桶，收盘价66.32美元/桶，最高价67.22美元/桶，最低价65.53美元/桶，涨跌幅-0.17%，成交量37.53万手；SC主力开盘价494.5元/桶，收盘价489.4元/桶，最高价497.5元/桶，最低价488.1元/桶，涨跌幅-1.41%，成交量13.57万手 [6] - 本周国际油价因美俄可能对话及原油需求无明显起色持续回落，美俄领导人会谈影响或偏短期，俄罗斯原油出口途径完备，制裁影响偏短期 [6] - 截至1日当周，美国汽油表需低于5年均值，旺季汽油消费未显著回升，油消费增速转正但表现仍弱，美国旺季出行消费低于预期，成品油消费不乐观 [6] - 今年美国旺季消费无明显起色，美俄谈判对油价影响偏短期，若美国对俄油征收二级关税，或为空单入场时机 [7] Group 3: Industry News - 瑞银预计油价将跌至低于此前预期水平，因南美石油产量强劲、受美国制裁国家产量保持弹性及未来库存增加预期 [8] - 巴西石油产量创新高，美国批准雪佛龙在委内瑞拉运营并暂缓对部分俄罗斯石油买家制裁，伊朗石油产量处多年高位 [8] - 瑞银预计到今年年底布伦特原油价格达每桶62美元，到2026年年中回升至每桶65美元，此前预测为每桶68美元 [8] Group 4: Data Overview - 包含WTI现货价格、阿曼现货价格、Brent基金净持仓、Dtd Brent价格、全球高频原油库存、WTI基金持仓、美国原油增产速度、EIA原油库存等数据图表 [11][13][14][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX supply has recovered, with its inventory at a historical low and strong bottom support. Whether its profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors. Currently, it is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing. However, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although there are device maintenance expectations, new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season limit price increases. The market had a short - term upward trend but has since fallen back, and supply remains sufficient [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere. Supply - side quotes vary, and downstream buying enthusiasm has declined. The supply - side operating rate remains low, some specifications are in short supply, and downstream terminals are mainly consuming previous inventories [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner. Without more unexpected positive news, the TA2509, PX2509, and PR2509 contracts closed at 4706 yuan/ton (0.38%), 6778 yuan/ton (0.44%), and 5934 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively, with trading volumes of 44.47 million hands, 7.41 million hands, and 1.97 million hands [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, 2025, the futures settlement prices (continuous) of WTI and Brent crude oil were $63.96/barrel and $66.63/barrel respectively, up 0.13% and 0.06% from the previous values [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $568/ton, down 0.44%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $690/ton, up 0.07%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $835/ton, up 0.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4708 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.47% and 0.43%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4690 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.38% and 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4671 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA was 4695 yuan/ton (up 0.54%) and $622/ton (down 0.96%) respectively [1]. - **PX**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX main contract were 6778 yuan/ton and 6770 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.77% and 0.33%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6705 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR main contract were 5934 yuan/ton and 5938 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.61% and 0.47%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5910 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 5950 yuan/ton (up 0.17%) respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged at 6480 yuan/ton, 5870 yuan/ton, and 5910 yuan/ton respectively. The CCFEI price indices of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D were 8600 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), 7125 yuan/ton (up 0.35%), 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%), and 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%) respectively [2]. 2. Spread Changes - **PXN Spread**: On August 11, 2025, it was $267/ton, up 2.23% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $145/ton, up 1.99% [1]. - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: It was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PTA**: It was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PX**: It was - 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of Polyester Bottle - chips in East and South China**: They were - 24 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, decreasing by 36 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained unchanged at 78.11% [1]. - **PTA Factory Load Rate**: It increased by 2.06 percentage points to 76.56% [1]. - **Polyester Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 87.09% [1]. - **Bottle - chip Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 71.93% [1]. - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 57.83% [1]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Polyester Filament Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 2 percentage points to 43% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: It decreased by 6 percentage points to 51% [1]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 8 percentage points to 97% [1]. 5. Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was shut down for maintenance on June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. 6. Important News - The supply - demand situation of international crude oil is weak, with high crude oil production in Brazil and Iran. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will affect oil prices. With the expected progress, geopolitical risks have declined, putting pressure on oil prices. Multiple reforming devices have been put into operation recently, and some PX devices have restarted one after another, leading to a recovery in PX supply [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - position allocation for oil prices, with oil prices expected to trade in a range [3] Core Viewpoints - India responded strongly to Trump's threat of sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, indicating it would defend its national interests and suggesting its policy of purchasing Russian oil won't change [2] - Oil prices have continued to decline due to concerns about demand and increased OPEC+ supply, but the potential disruption of Russian oil exports limits the decline. The future of oil prices largely depends on Trump's decision on sanctions against Russia [1][5] Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.70% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a 1.63% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.30% at 503 yuan per barrel [1] - The price of AI - 95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange hit a record high, exceeding 77,000 rubles ($964.6) per ton. The market attributes the price increase to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on August 2nd, which damaged crude oil processing facilities with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons per day, and repairs are expected to take 1 to 6 months [1] - BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the growth of non - OPEC oil supply will peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong. He expects non - OPEC supply to be basically flat 12 to 18 months after February or March next year. Oil market demand is still "quite strong" and is expected to grow this year and next year, with petrochemical products leading consumption next year. Developments related to sanctions on Russia and Iran are the main drivers of oil price increases [1] - US President Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. When asked about imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, he said it was quite possible [1] Investment Logic - India responded strongly to Trump's threats of tariffs on Russian oil imports, stating it would defend national interests and accusing Western countries of hypocrisy. The market believes India's policy of purchasing Russian oil will not change as it can't find alternative sources, and even if there are alternatives, the volume is expected to be very small [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a range, with a mid - term short - position allocation [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI dropped 1.62% to $66.24, Brent fell 1.42% to $68.68, and SC decreased 1.55% to 508.8 yuan/barrel. Trading volumes were 25.39 million hands for WTI, 30.84 million hands for Brent, and 10.72 million hands for SC [6] - Market Drivers: India will continue importing Russian oil, OPEC+ will increase production by 550,000 barrels per day, and the revised US non - farm payroll data triggered recession fears [6] - Fundamental Analysis: OPEC+ and US production growth is limited, demand in the peak season is slightly below expectations, and the fundamentals are neutral. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [7] - Trading Strategy: Consider shorting after a rebound due to negative macro sentiment [7] Group 3: Industry News - Demand Forecast: Saudi Aramco CEO expects oil demand to grow by 1.1 - 1.3 million barrels per day this year, approaching the upper end of the range, and reach 105.8 million barrels per day [8] - OPEC Production: OPEC production remained stable as Saudi's cuts offset UAE's increase [8] - Business Cooperation: Libya's National Oil Corporation signed a memorandum with ExxonMobil after a ten - year interruption [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - OPEC+ announced an increase of 550,000 barrels per day, and the significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data led to a sharp decline in oil prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally neutral, with limited production growth in OPEC+ and the US, and demand slightly underperforming expectations during the peak season [6]. - In the medium term, as demand moves into the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - sentiment, it is advisable to consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI closed at $67.26 per barrel, down 2.89%; Brent closed at $69.52 per barrel, down 3.04%; SC closed at 514.3 yuan per barrel, down 2.61%. The trading volumes of WTI, Brent, and SC were 33.17 million hands, 41.80 million hands, and 14.58 million hands respectively [6]. - **Analysis**: OPEC+ production increase and US non - farm payroll data revision affected prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are neutral, and oil prices are driven by the macro - level and geopolitical factors. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider pre - arranging short positions after a rebound due to negative macro - sentiment [7]. 2. Industry News - OPEC+ members agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, completing the supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. Chevron expects Venezuelan oil to enter the market. Goldman Sachs maintains the 2026 Brent crude price forecast at $56 per barrel. There is a dispute between the US and India over Indian oil purchases from Russia [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, and US crude oil production growth rate, with data sources including Wind, CFTC, EIA, and Bloomberg [10][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week's view on crude oil: Hold long positions and consider adding more on dips. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in Q3, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium to long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50/barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan/barrel [6]. - The logic behind the view: Excluding geopolitical and trade - war uncertainties, the market is bullish in Q3, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter. This is mainly due to OPEC+ increasing production less than expected, a decline in US shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center, making de - stocking difficult to disprove. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and short - term market pricing of "recession" may provide good buying opportunities. There is also a risk of a decline in Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions. In the medium to long term, the market is bearish due to the long - term oversupply pressure from OPEC+, Brazil, Guyana, Norway, etc., making inventory accumulation difficult to disprove [6]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is at a medium level, and there is still a chance of a rally in the second half of Q3 [6]. - Strategies: For the short - term, hold long positions and add more if the price continues to correct. For the long - term, short at high prices and trend - short. Pay attention to long 09 and short 10, long 09 and short 11 in the inter - period strategy. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the inter - variety strategy [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Global stock markets have declined, market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the gold - oil ratio has rebounded [11]. - Overseas inflation has risen, and the service PMI has rebounded [12]. - The RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has recovered [13]. 2. Supply - OPEC+ may continue to increase production. Attention should be paid to the decline in non - OPEC+ production. For example, Iraq's Kurdish region has a 200,000 - barrel - per - day production halt due to a drone attack, while the UAE's production has exceeded 3 million barrels per day, and its July exports reached 3.31 million barrels per day (close to a record high). The US Gulf of Mexico has added 150,000 barrels per day of new capacity, but the closure of California refineries has offset some of the supply increase [6][7][8]. - Presented the monthly and weekly export volume data of OPEC+ core member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, etc., as well as the weekly export volume data of non - OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, and Mexico [15][24][42]. - The number of US shale oil drilling rigs and production have rebounded [50]. 3. Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe are at seasonal highs. The operating rate of China's major refineries has stabilized, and the operating rate of independent refineries has rebounded [52]. - Asian demand is differentiated. China's refinery processing volume in June reached 15.2 million barrels per day (a month - on - month increase of 1.2 million barrels per day), but high refined oil inventories have curbed subsequent purchases. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil due to US tariff threats and shifted to Angolan crude oil. In Europe, there is a shortage of distillates in north - western Europe, while there is an oversupply of fuel oil in southern Europe [6][9]. 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have rebounded, and Cushing region inventories have stabilized but are significantly lower than historical averages [55]. - European crude oil inventories have rebounded, while diesel and gasoline inventories have decreased [60]. - Domestic refined oil profit margins have recovered [62]. 5. Price and Spread - The North American basis has rebounded slightly [65]. - The monthly spread has declined [66]. - SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened [69]. - Net long positions have rebounded [70].

逢高止盈 原油周报 2025/08/02 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 06 原油库存 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 2025/7/9 2025/ ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员： ...