Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity in wealth distribution in China and its impact on consumer spending, highlighting that a small percentage of high-net-worth individuals hold a significant portion of the country's savings, which affects overall consumption levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Wealth Distribution - As of May 2025, total deposits in China reached 326 trillion yuan, with household deposits at 160 trillion yuan, and the one-year deposit interest rate has fallen below 1% [1]. - The top 10% of depositors control nearly 70% of total deposits, while around 600 million people have deposits close to zero [1]. - The top 20% of high-net-worth families own approximately 83% of household deposits, while the bottom 40% hold only about 2.5% [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The article argues that the focus of consumption stimulation should be on high-net-worth individuals rather than the working class, as the current policies do not effectively address the wealth concentration issue [2][3]. - There is a notable difference in consumption patterns between China and the U.S., where the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption in the U.S., while in China, the top 20% only account for 40% [3][4]. Group 3: Service Consumption - The disparity in service consumption between China and the U.S. is significant, with the latter having a higher percentage of spending on services such as healthcare, legal, financial, and education [3][4]. - In the U.S., service consumption constitutes over 65% of total consumption, while in China, many services are state-run and do not cater to the wealthier population's needs [3][4]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The article suggests that the concentration of wealth leads to a lack of effective consumer spending, as extremely wealthy individuals tend to be frugal and do not significantly contribute to stimulating the economy [5][6]. - The ongoing wealth gap poses a challenge for economic policies aimed at boosting consumption, as the majority of the population lacks sufficient disposable income to drive demand [8].

Core Insights - The "Shanghai Shopping Festival" is taking place from late April to late June 2025, aiming to explore new highlights and trends in Shanghai's physical consumption [1] - The "old-for-new" policy in Shanghai remains stable, with no adjustments planned, providing a solid foundation for the consumption boom [1][3] - The latest data shows that since the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, over 11 million orders have been placed, generating sales exceeding 26 billion yuan [1][2] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy, combined with government and enterprise subsidies, has significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm, leading to a 100% increase in orders during the recent "618" promotion [3][4] - The sales of air conditioning, kitchen appliances, and televisions have seen year-on-year growth exceeding 60%, while 3C products like smartphones and computers have surged by 128% [3] - The government subsidy acts as a strong catalyst, allowing consumers to benefit from additional discounts, with total savings reaching up to 40% [4] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly calculating the economic, safety, and comfort benefits of upgrading their appliances, leading to a surge in demand for energy-efficient and smart home products [7][8] - The trend towards "smart" and "green" appliances is evident, with sales of integrated and multifunctional devices seeing significant growth [3][6] - Young consumers, particularly those born after 1995, are driving the demand for smart home appliances, with over 70% of purchases attributed to this demographic [3] Market Dynamics - The collaboration between government and enterprises has been crucial in maximizing the impact of the subsidy policies, ensuring a smooth execution of the "old-for-new" initiative [10][11] - The innovative funding pre-allocation mechanism has alleviated cash flow pressures on businesses, ensuring that they can continue to offer subsidies to consumers [10] - Future recommendations include a tiered subsidy design and dynamic fund allocation to balance consumption stimulation and green transformation [10][11]

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is the launch of electronic consumption vouchers in Bao'an District to stimulate consumer spending and enhance market vitality during the summer season [1][2] - The consumption voucher campaign runs from June 6 to July 15, 2025, in collaboration with Meituan and Kuaishou, targeting both local and national consumers [1][2] - Vouchers for residents' services are available to consumers nationwide, while retail and dining vouchers are limited to those located in Shenzhen [1] Group 2 - The Meituan platform offers various discount tiers for dining and retail, with dining vouchers providing discounts ranging from 8 to 45 yuan based on minimum spending, and retail vouchers offering discounts from 10 to 100 yuan [1] - The Kuaishou platform's "Summer Shopping" event focuses on subsidies for home appliances and digital products, with single-item and single-transaction subsidies reaching up to 1,000 yuan [2] - Consumers can easily access and redeem these vouchers through the respective apps, with a limited number of vouchers available each day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy has not led to inflation despite significant increases in the money supply, indicating a disconnect between monetary expansion and consumer price increases [1][3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing a lack of price increases in both consumer and producer levels [1][2]. - The broad money supply has increased from 200 trillion to 300 trillion over the past 4-5 years, indicating a substantial monetary expansion without corresponding inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Global Economic Dynamics - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have disrupted the traditional economic model where China produces goods and the U.S. consumes them, leading to a structural imbalance in supply and demand [7][9][12]. - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a surplus of goods in China, causing prices to drop and further weakening consumer spending [13][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Current government subsidies and consumption incentives are merely shifting future demand forward rather than creating new demand, as consumers with existing purchasing power are not incentivized to spend more [16][20]. - The wealth distribution issue is significant, as a small number of wealthy individuals hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, limiting overall consumer spending power [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on catering to the affluent consumer market, as there is potential for growth in luxury and high-end products despite overall economic stagnation [27][36]. - Exploring international markets for growth opportunities is essential, as domestic growth becomes increasingly challenging; companies should consider expanding into developing countries [37][41]. - In a deflationary environment, maintaining cash and investing in interest-bearing assets can be a prudent strategy, as money is expected to retain its value [43][44].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 家庭消费仍有潜力，期待服务消费刺激 2025 年 06 月 08 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 房大磊 执业证书：S0600522100001 fangdl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024/6/11 2024/10/9 2025/2/6 2025/6/6 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《建筑业 PMI 底部区间波动，推荐消 费建材》 2025-06-03 《继续推荐消费建材》 2025-05-25 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.6.3–2025.6.6，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.63%， 同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market is experiencing a surge as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, with various local governments actively promoting consumption through the issuance of vouchers for dining and retail [1][2] - Nanyang City is distributing a total of 25,000 retail government consumption vouchers worth 800,000 yuan, available for use in retail, dining, and fuel categories from May 30 to June 2 [1] - Guangzhou has launched the "2025 Greater Bay Area Consumption Season" with special dining vouchers worth up to 200 yuan, usable at over 2000 brand stores in the city [1] Group 2 - Shanghai's Commerce Commission announced the fourth round of the "Happy Shanghai" dining vouchers, with registration from May 31 to June 2, and the vouchers will be valid from June 7 to July 20 [2] - The dining vouchers come in three denominations: 90 yuan for a minimum spend of 300 yuan, 180 yuan for a minimum spend of 500 yuan, and 400 yuan for a minimum spend of 1000 yuan [2] - Meituan is increasing its issuance of dining vouchers to boost local dining consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival and the upcoming 6.18 shopping festival [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a valuation recovery supported by multiple favorable factors, leading to improved market sentiment and risk appetite [1][2] - Public fund performance has improved significantly, with average returns for ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds at 3.87% and 4.14% year-to-date as of May 13, respectively, and over 7% for the past year [1] - Key sectors leading the market include aviation, military, and telecommunications, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 10% [1] Group 2 - Fund managers attribute the market's upward momentum to steady economic recovery, improved liquidity expectations, and supportive policies [2][3] - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, have stimulated financing demand, positively impacting the market [3] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors with relatively low valuations, such as banking, non-bank financials, construction, and home appliances, as well as themes like domestic production, supply clearing, technological advancement, and consumption stimulation [3][4] Group 3 - Recent financial policies are expected to stabilize the market and improve expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, Hong Kong internet, new consumption, and domestic demand-driven industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimism surrounding China's technology sector, particularly in AI, and highlights the importance of domestic demand, self-sufficiency, and the response to external pressures such as tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, especially AI, is seen as a key driver for investment, with significant growth potential in domestic computing infrastructure and applications [4][10]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a significant rise, with domestic market share increasing from 38% in 2015 to an expected 61% in 2024, indicating strong growth in both domestic and export markets [14]. - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from increasing personal medical expenditures and supportive policies, presenting clear investment opportunities [11][12]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy amidst external uncertainties, with a focus on the government's proactive policies to stimulate domestic demand and manage economic transitions [6][17]. - The ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. are acknowledged, but the article suggests that the impact on China's economic structure is manageable, with a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology [16][17]. - The government's focus on reducing savings rates and expanding domestic consumption is expected to lead to supportive policies for new consumer trends, such as the silver economy and domestic brands [6][18]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, with expectations of rapid advancements and applications in various industries, including automotive and healthcare [4][10][19]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards "anti-involution" strategies, aiming for healthier competition and sustainable growth [15]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in construction and materials, is showing signs of stabilization after previous downturns, presenting potential investment opportunities [18].

Economic Indicators - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1%, while the year-on-year CPI fell by 0.1%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, showing stable growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Market Performance - On May 12, the Hang Seng Consumption Index (HSCGSI) surged by 1.06%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Quan Feng Holdings (+6.59%), Cha Baidao (+4.84%), and Guoquan (+4.51%) [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) opened over 1% higher on May 12, with an average daily trading volume of 182 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has seen net inflows from leveraged funds for three consecutive days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 7.15 million yuan, bringing the latest financing balance to 14.76 million yuan [1] Financial Support for Consumption - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan loan facility aimed at supporting consumption and elderly care, indicating a commitment to enhance financial support for these sectors [3] - The PBOC emphasized the importance of boosting consumption as a key goal of monetary policy, reflecting a structural shift towards enhancing consumer demand rather than merely increasing investment [4] Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) is positioned to benefit from new consumption stimulus policies and supports T+0 trading, focusing on four major sectors: food and beverages, textiles and apparel, household appliances, and tourism and leisure facilities [5] - The ETF includes leading consumer companies that complement the A-share market, featuring well-known domestic brands and emerging consumer firms, enhancing its attractiveness to investors [6] - The ETF is noted for its significant scale and flexibility, making it a prominent choice in the Hong Kong market for investors looking to capitalize on consumer trends [7]

事件：公司拟以集中竞价方式回购股份，金额0.85~1.7 亿元，回购价格不超过10.90 元/股。 制造回流美国本土及刺激内需背景下，业绩弹性释放可期：一方面，公司美国生产基地运营效率稳步提 升，美东、美西生产基地已逐步实现美国床垫市场的本土化供应，24 全年已实现盈利，伴随美国线上 业务的持续发力以及大型连锁商超等零售渠道客户的开发，北美市场的利润贡献有望凸显；另一方面， 国内消费补贴政策加码，公司持续推进店态升级与渠道多元化，通过MLILY 梦百合、NISCO里境和 VALUE 榀至品牌及品类的融合，打造一站式全屋家居消费场景，有望不断提升国内市场竞争力和品牌 影响力，我们看好公司后续业绩弹性的释放。 利润拐点已现，维持"买入"评级：我们维持2025-2027 年归母净利润预测为3.07/4.64/5.73 亿元，2025- 2027 年对应EPS 分别为0.54/0.81/1.00 元，当前股价对应2025-2027 年PE 分别为15/10/8 倍。我们认为公 司充分计提信用减值后资产质量已得以提升，看好制造业回流美国本土及刺激内需背景下，公司的利润 弹性释放，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：内需刺激政 ...