Core Insights - In late September, coal prices across various types in China experienced a comprehensive increase, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Price Changes Summary - Anthracite coal (washed middle block, volatile matter ≤8%) price reached 917.0 CNY/ton, up by 47.9 CNY/ton, a rise of 5.5% [1] - Ordinary mixed coal (Shanxi mixed coal with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) price was 544.0 CNY/ton, increasing by 14.7 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.8% [1] - Shanxi big mixed coal (higher quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) price stood at 616.9 CNY/ton, up by 17.6 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.9% [1] - Shanxi premium mixed coal (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal) price was 706.9 CNY/ton, increasing by 17.0 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.5% [1] - Datong mixed coal (Datong produced mixed coal with a calorific value of 5800 kcal) price reached 744.9 CNY/ton, up by 17.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.4% [1] - Coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content <1%) price was 1478.6 CNY/ton, increasing by 57.2 CNY/ton, a rise of 4.0% [1] - In summary, anthracite coal prices continued to rise, while the trend for thermal coal shifted from divergence to collective increase, and coking coal prices reversed from decline to increase [1] Coking Coal and Coke Price Summary - In late September, the price of coke (quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke, ash content between 12.01% and 13.50%) was 1346.4 CNY/ton, down by 14.3 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal market has entered a strong rebound since August 2025, driven by a combination of supply constraints, demand recovery, and supportive policies, indicating a clear upward price trajectory for coal in the future [1][4]. Supply Side - Continuous tightening of supply has laid the foundation for rising coal prices, with significant declines in domestic production. In August 2025, the output of industrial raw coal was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a daily average production of 12.6 million tons [1]. - Strict safety and environmental inspections in major production areas, such as Shanxi and Shaanxi, have led to reduced production and shutdowns of some coal mines, exacerbating supply tightness [1]. Import Market - The import market has also contracted, with August 2025 data showing that China imported 32.575 million tons of thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31% but a month-on-month increase of 25.35%. Cumulatively, imports from January to August 2025 were 227.492 million tons, down 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in international coal prices, domestic import willingness remains low, influenced by global market dynamics, including Colombia's coal export ban to Israel, which has raised transportation costs and indirectly pushed international coal prices up [2]. Demand Side - Multiple favorable factors are driving demand, with increased coal consumption due to insufficient hydropower output during summer. In August, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants reached 2.2 million tons, highlighting coal's role as a "safety net" energy source [2]. - The demand from non-electric sectors, such as steel and cement, is rapidly recovering, with the significant rise in coke prices reflecting strong demand from the steel industry [2][3]. Policy Support - The subtle shift in coal policy in 2025 has become a crucial support for prices, moving from "supply guarantee and price suppression" to "price stabilization and support." The defined "green range" for thermal coal prices is set between 570-770 yuan/ton, with no enforced price suppression [3]. - State-owned enterprises are implementing dynamic pricing mechanisms, with local state-owned enterprises anchoring prices at a 770 yuan ceiling, encouraging spot prices to align with long-term contract prices [3]. Price Outlook - The current coal market exhibits significant structural price increases, with spot prices for thermal coal surpassing state enterprise contract prices, and there is potential for prices to approach the 770 yuan/ton level set by local state enterprises [4]. - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to continue due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand effects, and increased infrastructure investment, with policies providing a safety net for prices [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating that coal prices are expected to continue rising due to tight supply and increased demand for inventory replenishment ahead of the peak season [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of September 19, 2025, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 27, and 24 RMB/ton respectively [3]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has increased by 10.27% week-on-week, while the outflow has also risen by 14.21% [20]. - The report emphasizes the expected price increase for thermal coal due to supply constraints and the upcoming maintenance of the Daqin railway line [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The Anhui Provincial Coal Geological Bureau has discovered 760 million tons of coal resources in the Huainan coalfield, which is significant for strategic reserves [8]. - The report notes the successful implementation of a credit payment system for railway freight by Huaihe Energy, aimed at reducing financing costs [8]. 2. Price Trends for Thermal and Coking Coal - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various grades of thermal coal have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in different regions [9][12]. - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with no significant changes reported in major production areas [12]. 3. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel as of September 19, 2025, impacting the coal market dynamics [15]. 4. Bohai Rim Port Inventory Trends - The coal inventory at Bohai Rim ports has decreased by 0.89% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [20]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have increased by 19.91%, reflecting rising transportation costs [28]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market performance and earnings projections [34].

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，近期，主产区超产核查影响料持续，且国庆节前煤矿存主动 减产预期，长短期供给收缩预期均强化。库存端，据铁路部门消息，大秦线秋季集中检修将于10月7日 展开，为期20天。一旦检修开始，随着运量的下降，预计秦皇岛港煤炭库存也将跟随减少，使得港口场 存中的优质、可流通的市场煤资源更为紧张。本周港口煤价明显反弹，重新站上700元/吨，展望9月下 旬与10月上旬，预计在"弱平衡"格局下港口资源结构性紧缺情况将主导煤价稳中有升。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 主产区严查煤矿超产，或对后续煤矿产能释放产生持续影响。近期，内蒙古自治区能源局对全区299处 生产煤矿进行核查，发现2024年-2025年6月共有93处煤矿存在超公告产能生产问题，超产比例达31%， 其中鄂尔多斯市问题尤为突出，共有82处煤矿超产。2025年1—6月单月超产10%以上的15处煤矿(均位 于鄂尔多斯市)已被责令停产整改，并将由专家核查后续生产安排，全面整改合格后方可恢复生产。屡 次超产的煤矿将面临从严处罚，自治区内相关盟市需建立动态监管机制，严格落实产能公告制度，从源 头防范超能力生产行为，确保煤矿安全生产秩序。 国庆节 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Energy, and China Shenhua [5][7]. Core Insights - The coal price has surpassed 700 RMB/ton, with expectations for continued upward momentum due to tight supply and resilient demand [7]. - Supply constraints are driven by three factors: ongoing "super production checks," adverse weather affecting coal production, and increased safety inspections due to significant events [7]. - Demand remains strong, particularly for electricity generation, supported by high temperatures and robust non-electric coal demand [7]. - China Shenhua is highlighted for its asset acquisition plans and mid-term dividend announcements, indicating strong growth potential and value retention [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to maintain high dividend payouts [12][13]. - The operational tracking of major coal companies shows varied production and sales performance, with China Shenhua's coal production at 81.3 million tons in Q1 2025, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [15]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the port coal price has risen, with the price of Q5500 grade coal at 703 RMB/ton, a 2.33% increase week-on-week [8]. - The report tracks various coal prices, including thermal and coking coal, indicating stable pricing trends despite fluctuations in demand and supply [8]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report provides insights into coal production levels and inventory, indicating a slight increase in daily production rates across sample mines [8][15]. - The inventory levels are monitored closely, with specific attention to the coal supply chain and logistics [8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report highlights the daily coal consumption by power plants, which remains robust, supporting the overall demand for coal [8]. - It also tracks the performance of downstream industries, such as steel production, which is crucial for coking coal demand [8]. 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector's performance is analyzed, showing a slight decline of 0.9% week-on-week, with individual stock performances varying significantly [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to supply constraints caused by safety inspections and adverse weather conditions, alongside rising demand during peak consumption seasons [1][2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From June 23 to August 7, the price of CCI5500 thermal coal rose from 615 RMB/ton to 679 RMB/ton, an increase of 64 RMB/ton, with lower calorific value coal experiencing even greater price hikes [1] - The domestic coal market is currently tight, with coal inventories at user enterprises dropping by over 50% since the end of June, while supply is limited due to weather, production policies, and safety inspections [1][2] - Heavy rainfall has led to the suspension of production in several coal mines, with 12 out of 21 surveyed mines in Inner Mongolia affected, totaling a capacity of 67.5 million tons [2] Price Trends and Forecasts - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, dropping to 609 RMB/ton by mid-June, before gradually rising again [4] - Analysts predict that thermal coal prices in northern ports may exceed 700 RMB/ton in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and seasonal demand peaks [5][6] - Despite the potential for prices to reach 700 RMB/ton, surpassing 800 RMB/ton remains challenging due to the need for improved industrial demand and the risk of transferring losses to downstream coal-consuming enterprises [5][6] Market Sentiment and Purchasing Behavior - The purchasing behavior of large power generation companies has shifted towards less transparent procurement methods, reducing market activity and impacting price dynamics [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many stakeholders still wary of price increases due to previous downward trends in coal prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased, driven by supply constraints and rising demand, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [1][2]. Supply Factors - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 668 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous period, marking four consecutive weeks of price increases [1]. - Frequent rainfall has hindered coal production and transportation in major production areas, leading to a significant drop in coal transportation volumes, with the daily average for the Daqin Railway remaining below 1 million tons for 12 consecutive days, averaging 920,000 tons [1]. - The structural imbalance in coal types at ports has intensified, supporting traders' price-holding mentality and pushing port coal prices higher [1]. Demand Factors - The impact of typhoons on coastal regions has diminished, and high temperatures have increased residential electricity load, driving up power generation demand [2]. - Coal consumption by power plants in eight coastal provinces has surged, approaching 2.5 million tons, the highest level since September 14, 2024 [2]. - The number of days of available coal stock has dropped to less than 14, indicating a release of incremental replenishment demand, although logistical issues have prevented a surge in centralized procurement [2]. Overall Market Outlook - The current logistics constraints are limiting the transfer of coal to ports and downstream markets, resulting in a weak supply and slow demand release in the coastal coal market [2]. - Once temporary impacts subside and transportation logistics return to normal, demand is likely to outpace supply, suggesting potential upward pressure on coastal coal prices [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for Lu'an Huanneng and a recommendation for Jin Control Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Shanxi Coal International, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and Zhongmei Energy [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the price of thermal coal will rebound to the "8" range due to dual support from supply and demand, with a price center expected to maintain around 700 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity demand, with total power generation growth reaching 8.57% year-on-year, and thermal power growth at 5.48% [2][7]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to production checks and adverse weather conditions, leading to a structural shortage of coal [2][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are on an upward trend, driven by supply constraints and increased electricity demand [2][7]. - It mentions that the daily coal consumption of power plants has risen to over 6 million tons, with further upward potential [2][7]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 4.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [12][14]. - The report details the performance of various coal companies, with Jin Control Coal Industry experiencing the largest decline of 11.94% [17][20]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the tightening supply in the coal market, with significant drops in railway shipments and port inventories [2][9]. - It highlights the expected recovery in production capacity in mid-August, which may influence price dynamics [2][7]. 4. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, stable performance, and growth potential, such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jin Control Coal Industry, and others [3][11].

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a significant rebound on July 29, with coal ETFs turning from decline to an increase of nearly 1%, and major coal companies like Lu'an Huanneng seeing a surge of nearly 6% [1][3] - The primary driver for this rebound is the rise in Asian coal prices, which have reached a five-month high due to increased electricity demand from air conditioning amid high temperatures and reduced inventory levels [1][3] - Newcastle thermal coal futures in Australia rose to $115.50 per ton, marking the highest level since February of this year, despite still being approximately 75% lower than the peak prices seen after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [3] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices are showing signs of increase, with Qinhuangdao port thermal coal prices rising to 645 yuan per ton, an increase of 11 yuan per ton week-on-week as of July 26 [5] - The price of thermal coal from Shanxi reached 580 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton week-on-week, while Inner Mongolia's coal prices also saw increases [5] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), a rebound in thermal coal prices is expected in the second half of the year, particularly as the heating season begins in October, suggesting that the low point for thermal coal prices may have occurred in June [6] Group 3 - The outlook for coking coal prices is also positive, with expectations of a rebound; however, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on whether production cuts are realized [6] - Open-source securities indicate that the coal sector fundamentals remain favorable, with the current low holdings in coal stocks suggesting it may be an opportune time for investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Asian coal prices have reached their highest level since February, driven by increased electricity demand due to high temperatures and reduced inventories [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The benchmark price for Asian coal has risen to a five-month high, with Australian Newcastle thermal coal futures increasing to $115.50 per ton, the highest level for near-month contracts since February [1] - Current coal prices are approximately 75% lower than the recent peak reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - High temperatures have led to a surge in coal-fired power generation in Tokyo, reaching a ten-month high [1] - Japan, a major importer of Australian coal, is experiencing increased demand for coal due to the ongoing heatwave [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that East Asia may experience temperatures above normal levels in the future, which could pose further upside risks to coal demand [1]