Group 1: Economic Outlook - Experts believe that the foreign trade environment remains uncertain in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand as the core policy direction to cultivate more growth momentum and endogenous power [1][5] - The cumulative GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is likely to reach around 5.2%, supported by consumption [1][5] Group 2: Consumption Policies - Suggestions include optimizing holiday arrangements, such as increasing holidays in the second half of the year and implementing paid leave systems to boost service consumption recovery [2][6] - The government has allocated a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with an additional 138 billion yuan expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters [6] Group 3: Income and Consumption Dynamics - Improving residents' disposable income is crucial for transforming consumption into a new economic engine, with a focus on increasing the proportions of fiscal spending on public services, residents' consumption in total demand, and disposable income in the national economy [9][10] - Wage income constitutes a significant portion of residents' disposable income, and enhancing wage growth is essential for sustained income improvement [9][10] Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - The service retail sector showed a growth rate of 5.0% in the first quarter, indicating the potential for service consumption to be a key driver for boosting overall consumption [11] - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed 48 measures to enhance service consumption, covering various sectors such as dining, tourism, and new business models [11] Group 5: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is identified as a key area for development, with a focus on nurturing leading enterprises similar to Huawei and Apple [12][13] - The productive service sector is projected to grow from 27% in previous years to 31% in 2024, highlighting its importance in the modern economy [12][13]

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme of "Steady Navigation of China's Macroeconomy," with various experts sharing their insights [1] - Huang Qifan emphasized the importance of productive services in enhancing manufacturing efficiency and technological progress, highlighting its role across the entire industrial chain [2] - The CMF report suggested increasing economic growth momentum and improving the channels for economic benefits to reach the public, with specific directions including structural transformation from manufacturing to services and urbanization potential [2]

作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨季媛媛 图 源| 2 1世纪经济报道 6月21日，中国人民大学中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）2025年中期论坛在京举行，本期论坛聚 焦"稳舵远航的中国宏观经济"。 重庆市原市长黄奇帆在论坛上发言表示，未来五年的"十五五"期间，中国经济进入到全力推 动新质生产力发展的阶段。抓好新质生产力，从增量上，要抓好中央提出的15个战略新兴和 未来产业；从存量上，就是现在100多亿工业制造业产值，要着力抓好绿色、低碳化和数字智 能化的发展，用绿色低碳和数字智能赋能融合到存量的生产力体系。在服务业方面，要着力 抓好生产性服务业。生产性服务业有十个大类，分别是技术开发和创新、物流配套服务、金 融服务、检验检测认证服务、绿色低碳服务、数字化服务、销售和售后服务、品牌广告和知 识产权服务、会计和法律等专业咨询服务、人才培养和管理服务等。 黄奇帆表示，生产性服务业不仅是制造业高科技发展的温床、土壤，也是新质生产力发展的 温床、土壤。生产性服务业还自带光环，直接就是GDP的增长极、独角兽的主要板块，是服 务贸易发展的基础，是高端装备附加值最主要的来源，是全要素生产率的组成部分。 "中国的生产性服务业，前两年的数据是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment in China, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the production service industry as key drivers for economic growth [1][3][10]. Group 1: Production Service Industry - The production service industry is crucial for improving manufacturing efficiency and technological advancement, spanning the entire industrial chain [3]. - There is a call to elevate the share of the production service industry from 27%-28% to 35% over the next decade, which would contribute to a more rational industrial structure and high-quality development [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The current economic landscape faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and low prices, necessitating a rich toolbox of monetary policy to support stable economic growth [4][6]. - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai is part of the strategy to enhance monetary policy tools [6]. Group 3: International Competition and Foreign Investment - The international competitive landscape has shifted from vertical to horizontal division, with increased competition from domestic firms leading to the exit of some foreign companies [7][9]. - There is a recognition of the need to improve the investment environment to attract foreign investment, despite the challenges posed by the changing competitive dynamics [8]. Group 4: Domestic Demand Expansion - The need to address the shortfall in domestic consumption is highlighted, with a focus on increasing residents' income and enhancing service consumption [11]. - Policies should ensure that fiscal spending growth outpaces nominal GDP growth to effectively stimulate total demand [11]. Group 5: Stabilizing Enterprises - Stabilizing enterprises is deemed essential for achieving broader economic stability, with recommendations for improving business conditions and market environments [12][14]. - Enhancing enterprise vitality through property rights protection and reducing administrative monopolies is crucial for fostering a competitive market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment in China, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the production service industry as key drivers for economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production Service Industry - The production service industry is crucial for improving manufacturing efficiency and technological advancement, and it should be prioritized during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - There is a goal to increase the share of the production service industry from 27%-28% to 35% over the next decade, which will contribute to a more rational industrial structure and high-quality development of China's modern industrial system [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The current economic environment faces challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low prices, necessitating a rich toolbox of monetary policy to support stable economic growth [4]. - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai is a significant step towards enhancing China's monetary policy framework [4]. Group 3: International Competition and Openness - The international competitive landscape has shifted, with China moving from vertical to horizontal division of labor, leading to increased competition from domestic firms against multinational corporations [5]. - Despite some foreign companies exiting the market, there is a growing willingness among multinational executives to engage with Chinese firms, indicating a dual nature of international business relations [5][6]. Group 4: Domestic Demand Expansion - The need to address insufficient effective demand is highlighted, with a focus on increasing consumer spending and improving residents' income levels [7]. - Policies should aim to ensure that fiscal spending growth outpaces nominal GDP growth to effectively stimulate total demand [7]. Group 5: Stabilizing Enterprises - Stabilizing enterprises is essential for achieving broader economic stability, with recommendations to improve business conditions and market environments [8][9]. - Enhancing enterprise vitality is critical, with a focus on property rights protection and creating a fair competitive environment for both state-owned and private enterprises [9]. Group 6: Economic Growth Channels - The report suggests that to maintain economic growth, it is necessary to "turn on the faucet" for growth drivers and ensure that the channels for economic benefits reach the public [10][11]. - Specific measures include encouraging employment through subsidies and improving income distribution systems to alleviate low-quality competition [10][11].

促进会会长戴建平表示："自成立以来，促进会和市发改委服务业处马不停蹄开展搭机构、建机 制、问诉求、抓谋划、搞培训、促协调一系列'从0到1'的创新性工作，努力搭建党委政府的智库服务平 台和会员企业的合作交流平台，初步打响了促进会品牌。" 生产性服务业是制造业高质量发展的基础，是新质生产力发展的生态、环境和土壤。近日，杭州市 生产性服务业促进会（以下简称"促进会"）第一届第二次理事会暨黄奇帆先生报告会在杭州召开。 本次大会通过了《市生产性服务业促进会内部管理制度》，宣布成立促进会党支部和首批20位专家 组成员，并为杭州市现代服务业研究院和杭州供应链创新专委会授牌。 促进会成立于2025年1月6日，目前拥有603家会员单位，是在杭州市委、市政府统一部署下，由杭 州资本、阿里巴巴、海康威视等12家单位发起成立的地方性、非营利性社会组织。促进会603家会员单 位及其下属在杭企业2023年营收占全市生产性服务业的82%，占全市服务业的77%。 "杭州搞生产性服务业促进会，很有战略性和前瞻性。"黄奇帆表示，杭州是最早一批将生产性服务 业写入政府工作报告的城市。杭州搞生产性服务业，就是为今后10年乃至20年发展做谋划。 生产 ...

存量方面，黄奇帆表示，中国制造体系中，除了新质生产力大体占据20%外，80%是由过去几十年发展形成的。存量工业产业体系要进行技术改造和升级换代，用 新质生产力来发掘传统制造业的潜力。其中，一是对传统制造业进行绿色低碳改造，二是对传统生产制造业进行数字化改造。 在当今的经济格局中，生产性服务业对产品附加值的贡献极为关键。黄奇帆表示，无论是高端装备还是电子产品，硬件成本仅占总价值的一半左右，另一半价值来 自生产性服务业嵌入的服务价值。高端产品的核心竞争力，正是源于生产性服务业的深度嵌入。 "党的二十大报告明确提出，加快建设贸易强国。贸易强国不仅要优化货物贸易，更要提升服务贸易水平。只有成为服务贸易强国，才能真正成为贸易强国。这充分 体现了生产性服务业及服务贸易在国家发展战略中的重要地位。"黄奇帆表示。 随着制造业转型升级加速，"中国智造"迅速崛起。黄奇帆表示，经过过去十几年的发展，中国制造十大领域有相当大的一批产品，实现了全球"领跑"或和发达国 家"并跑"。新质生产力将成为"十五五"规划乃至2040年长远规划中，中国制造业发展的最强劲动力。 以"打造资本强引擎，赋能新质生产力"为主题的第八届（2025）西湖大会5 ...

以"打造资本强引擎，赋能新质生产力"为主题的第八届（2025）西湖大会5月21日在杭州举行。中国金 融40人论坛学术顾问、重庆市原市长黄奇帆在发表主旨演讲时表示，生产性服务业是培育新质生产力的 土壤和生态环境，是工业制造技术进步的重要支撑。未来，生产性服务业将出现集群化发展趋势，与制 造业集群相结合，并形成规模效应和协同创新。预计"十五五"时期，促进生产性服务业的发展将提上重 要议事日程。 在当今的经济格局中，生产性服务业对产品附加值的贡献极为关键。黄奇帆表示，无论是高端装备还是 电子产品，硬件成本仅占总价值的一半左右，另一半价值来自生产性服务业嵌入的服务价值。高端产品 的核心竞争力，正是源于生产性服务业的深度嵌入。 "党的二十大报告明确提出，加快建设贸易强国。贸易强国不仅要优化货物贸易，更要提升服务贸易水 平。只有成为服务贸易强国，才能真正成为贸易强国。这充分体现了生产性服务业及服务贸易在国家发 展战略中的重要地位。"黄奇帆表示。 随着制造业转型升级加速，"中国智造"迅速崛起。黄奇帆表示，经过过去十几年的发展，中国制造十大 领域有相当大的一批产品，实现了全球"领跑"或和发达国家"并跑"。新质生产力将成为"十 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter of 2025, 1.979 million new private enterprises were established in China, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, exceeding the average growth rate of the past three years [1] - Among the new enterprises, 836,000 were categorized as "four new" (new technology, new industry, new business format, new model), with internet and modern information technology service enterprises growing the fastest at 18.0% [1] - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law reflects the government's commitment to supporting the development of the private economy, enhancing legal protections and stabilizing expectations for long-term growth [1][4] Group 2 - Recent policies supporting the private economy focus on three main areas: protecting the rights of private enterprises and entrepreneurs, improving market mechanisms to reduce operational costs, and addressing local government overreach that increases transaction costs [2] - The current global environment presents challenges for private enterprises, including risks from de-globalization policies and the need for intelligent production capabilities, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - Promoting high-quality development of the private economy is essential for competing internationally and advancing modernization in China, necessitating the use of legal frameworks to address development challenges [2] Group 3 - There is a need to accelerate the construction of a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment to enhance the competitiveness of private enterprises [3] - Developing productive service industries is crucial for improving the global competitiveness of private enterprises, particularly in guiding them to understand industry trends and formulate global strategies [3] - The healthy development of private enterprises and entrepreneurs is interrelated, with each supporting the other's growth and contributing to national and social progress [3]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The economic total of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) reached 14.8 trillion RMB in 2024, surpassing major global bay areas like New York, San Francisco, and Tokyo [1] - The GBA is expected to build a modern industrial system with international competitiveness, comprising advanced manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, modern services, and marine economy [1] Group 2: Innovation and R&D - The GBA's R&D investment intensity exceeds that of the New York Bay Area by 0.6 percentage points, but is lower than Tokyo and San Francisco by 0.2 and 2.8 percentage points respectively [2] - In 2023, the GBA filed 78,000 international patent applications, which is 1.5 times that of the Tokyo Bay Area, 1.7 times that of the San Francisco Bay Area, and 24 times that of the New York Bay Area, indicating higher innovation efficiency [2] Group 3: Human Capital - Human capital is deemed crucial for enhancing productivity across various production factors in the GBA, emphasizing the need for high-quality university resources and international talent recruitment [3] - The GBA should consider establishing branches of top universities to address engineering talent shortages and attract more foreign researchers [3] Group 4: Service Industry - The development of the service industry, particularly productive services, is highlighted as a key component of the modern industrial system [4] - In 2024, the modern service industry in Qianhai, Shenzhen, achieved an added value of over 180 billion RMB, with productive services contributing approximately 150 billion RMB, accounting for about 64.3% of the service sector [6] Group 5: Regional Coordination - The GBA faces challenges due to institutional and developmental disparities across its regions, but these differences also provide opportunities for a comprehensive industrial system [7] - The integration of Hong Kong's advantages in technology research and international resource allocation is essential for the GBA's modernization [8] Group 6: Collaborative Framework - The construction of a modern industrial system in the GBA requires cross-regional, cross-departmental, and cross-entity collaboration, with rule alignment being crucial [9] - The GBA's technology cooperation mechanism has improved, with increased participation of Hong Kong and Macao institutions in Guangdong's research projects, facilitating the conversion of research outcomes into industrial applications [9]