1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas equity markets generally declined this week due to tariff concerns and economic data. Economic data showed potential slowdown risks, and the "disappointing" non - farm data on Friday intensified market concerns about economic momentum. Tariff policies also made investors cautious. The three major US stock indexes all fell by more than 2%. [1][10] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts fluctuated greatly this week. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40% due to Powell's slightly hawkish stance, but soared above 80% after the "disappointing" non - farm data and the resignation of the hawkish Fed member Kugler. [2] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. Consumption was stable, while investment slowed down. [44] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: Overseas equities generally closed down. This was mainly affected by tariffs and economic data. The three major US stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) fell by 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively. Other major overseas indexes also declined to varying degrees. [10] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar first rose and then fell, with a slight weekly gain. The US dollar index rose by 1.04%. The euro and the RMB against the US dollar fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively, while the yen against the US dollar rose by 0.19%. [10] - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined significantly. The 2Y US Treasury yield dropped 22bp, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 17bp. [11] - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose, while New York copper prices tumbled. COMEX gold rose 0.93%, COMEX copper dropped 23.88%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.37%. [11] 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The FOMC meeting this week maintained the interest rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. It was the fifth consecutive time of keeping the rate unchanged since the December rate cut last year. The meeting statement was slightly dovish, while Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately hawkish. [26] - The market's expectation of the Fed's September rate cut first dropped and then soared. After the FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 40%, but after the "disappointing" non - farm data and Kugler's resignation, it rose above 80%. As of August 1, the market expected a 25bp rate cut in September with a probability of 80.3%, and three consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, October, and December. [2][27] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting this week also maintained the interest rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, but it raised the inflation forecast, causing the yen to rise against the US dollar. [27] 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Trade Negotiations**: Sino - US economic and trade talks continued to postpone the 24% part of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. Trump signed an executive order to set the "new reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and a 40% transit tax on transit goods. He also adjusted tariff policies for Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. [3][31] - **Personnel Changes**: Trump demanded the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and the Fed member Kugler announced her resignation on August 8. These two personnel changes on Friday increased traders' bets on a September rate cut by the Fed. [3][31] - Trump's net satisfaction rate increased. As of August 1, his net satisfaction rate was - 5.1%, compared with - 7.0% a week ago. [32] 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - The bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website dropped to 16% from 17% a week ago. The US weekly economic activity index rose slightly, while Germany's continued to decline. [4][37] - The US second - quarter GDP initial value showed an overall growth rate exceeding expectations, but the potential momentum weakened. After excluding the impact of net exports and inventory, the growth rate was lower than the previous value. [44] 3.3.2 Employment - The number of unemployment benefit recipients continued to decline, but the non - farm data was "disappointing". The number of initial jobless claims continued to be lower than expected, but the non - farm data on Friday was far below expectations, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations. [4][52] 3.3.3 Demand - US airport security checks and railway transportation were better than the same period last year. The Redbook commercial retail sales growth rate declined for three consecutive weeks. The real estate market remained sluggish. [54] 3.3.4 Production - The US production side remained prosperous, with crude steel production and refinery utilization rates continuing to be higher than the same period last year. [60] 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates declined. The Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Cape - size Freight Index all dropped, and the container freight rates from Chinese ports also continued to fall. [63][64] 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices were stable. The inflation expectations in the US declined this week, with the 1 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.04 percentage points and the 2 - year inflation swap rate dropping by 0.06 percentage points. [65][68] 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial pressure declined this week, with the OFR US financial stress index dropping and the credit spread narrowing. [70] 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Key events next week include the Bank of England's interest rate meeting (the market expects a 25bp rate cut), the US July ISM services PMI, and the US June factory orders monthly rate. Attention should also be paid to the implementation of Trump's "new reciprocal tariffs" on August 7. [74]

Core Insights - The implementation of new tariffs on imports to the U.S. has raised significant concerns about the health of the American economy, coinciding with the release of troubling employment data [1][3] - The unexpected delay in the tariff policy's implementation has led to speculation regarding the political motivations behind it [3] - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic decline, losing over $1.11 trillion in market value due to revised employment data that indicated economic weakness [5] Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported a non-farm payroll increase of only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000 [5] - The revisions for previous months were stark, with June's job additions revised down from 147,000 to just 14,000, and May's data adjusted down to 19,000, indicating a troubling trend of weak job growth [5] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has dropped to 35,000, marking the worst performance since 2021 [5] Political Implications - Following the release of the employment report, former President Trump dismissed the head of the Labor Statistics Bureau, suggesting political manipulation of the data to favor the Biden administration [7] - Trump's comments reflect a contradiction, as he criticized the data's accuracy while also implying that previous positive employment figures may have been inflated [7] - The market's confidence is now under scrutiny, particularly regarding the ability of the newly appointed Labor Statistics Bureau head to operate independently amid political pressures [7] Economic Outlook - The current economic situation is more precarious than portrayed, with rising inflation rates reported for the second consecutive month [9] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the burden of tariffs imposed by Trump will eventually be passed on to American consumers, highlighting the limitations of tariffs as an economic tool [9] - The effectiveness of maintaining tariff policies while managing interest rates poses a complex challenge for the economy [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting from August 8, which is seen as a negative signal for the government bond market [1] - The tax applies only to new government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds issued after August 8, leaving previously issued bonds unaffected, which is relatively favorable for older bonds [1] - The intention behind this tax is likely to gradually reduce the yield on risk-free assets and guide funds towards the equity market, which could be seen as a positive for the stock market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced its largest decline recently, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 2%, the S&P 500 down by 1.6%, and the Dow Jones also falling over 1% [3] - The decline was primarily driven by the U.S. Labor Department's report showing that July's non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, raising concerns about a potential economic recession [3] - Despite the weak labor market data, there is skepticism about an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as historical practices suggest a wait-and-see approach for 2 to 3 months before making decisions [3] Group 3 - The decline in U.S. stocks negatively impacted the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index, which is expected to affect the Hong Kong stock market in the upcoming week [4] - However, it is anticipated that the A-share market may experience a low opening followed by a stabilization, as the market often rebounds after an initial drop [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices declined as Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, causing the expectation of a September rate cut to cool off. Despite a brief recovery due to the Fed's statement about slower economic growth, gold prices continued to fall. There is still downward pressure on gold prices due to factors such as the Trump tariff deadline, the weakening rate - cut expectation, and the significant decline of international copper [4]. - Silver prices dropped significantly as the Trump administration excluded the most imported refined copper from tariffs, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. There is also downward pressure on silver prices, but the impact of the Trump tariff event is limited [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, European major stock indexes closed slightly higher, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 1.06% to 99.97, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly against the US dollar to 7.2123, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year yield dropped 8.75 basis points to 4.322%, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 2199 kilograms to 33462 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt increased by 3228 kilograms to 1208094 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's participation in a fireside chat at 07:20, Japan's June industrial output preliminary value and retail sales at 07:50, the meeting between the US and South Korean finance ministers (time to be determined), China's July official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI at 09:30, the Bank of Japan's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook report (time to be determined), the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, France's July CPI preliminary value at 14:45, Germany's July CPI preliminary value at 20:00, the US July 26 - week initial jobless claims at 20:30, and the US Federal Circuit Court's hearing of President Trump's "reciprocal tariff" case (time to be determined) [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The Fed's statement mentioned slower economic growth, and although gold prices briefly recovered, Powell's press conference did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut and emphasized inflation risks. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3.7 yuan/gram, and the RMB depreciated significantly, causing the premium to rise rapidly [4]. - **Silver**: The Trump administration's decision to exclude the most imported refined copper from tariffs led to a significant drop in silver prices, combined with the cooling off of the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are difficult to fall back due to the shift from inflation expectations to economic recession expectations after Trump took office, and the high sentiment of gold prices makes them still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices due to stronger tariff concerns [10][13]. - Today, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision, Powell's speech, the US July ADP, and the eurozone's second - quarter GDP. Gold prices have rebounded, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram. The domestic commodity market has recovered, and gold prices are oscillating. Silver prices have also rebounded, but the rebound is limited, and the market is waiting for the expiration date of the trade agreement. The support for silver prices still exists [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Trump set a new deadline for the ultimatum to Russia, most domestic futures rose, and gold prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX gold futures rose 0.46% to $3325.30 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Most domestic futures rose, and silver prices rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, while major European stock indexes closed up across the board. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield down 8.75 basis points to 4.322%. The US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.92, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1808. COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $38.39 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.86, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipt is 30,258 kilograms, unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,208,269 kilograms, with a daily increase of 21,015 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australia's second - quarter CPI - 13:30: France's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 16:00: Germany's preliminary unadjusted second - quarter GDP - 17:00: The eurozone's preliminary second - quarter GDP - 20:15: The US July ADP employment number (the "small non - farm") - 20:30: The US preliminary second - quarter GDP, and the US Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing report statement - 21:45: The Bank of Canada's interest rate decision - 22:00: The US June pending home sales index - Time TBD: The US President's Digital Asset Working Group's release of the cryptocurrency policy report - Next day 02:00: The Fed's release of the FOMC monetary policy meeting's resolution statement - Next day 02:30: Fed Chairman Powell's regular press conference - Next day 05:30: The Central Bank of Brazil's interest rate decision [15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of gold prices is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 217,535, an increase of 246 or 0.11% from the previous day; the short position was 67,745, an increase of 3,292 or 5.11% from the previous day; the net position was 149,790, a decrease of 3,046 or 1.99% from the previous day [31]. - **Silver**: For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 29, 2025, the long position was 387,020, a decrease of 14,545 or 3.62% from the previous day; the short position was 285,323, a decrease of 16,893 or 5.59% from the previous day; the net position was 101,697, an increase of 2,348 or 2.36% from the previous day [33].

Report Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Gold: After the US and Japan reached an agreement and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal, the gold price rose and then fell. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the downward pressure on the gold price increased. However, the premium of Shanghai gold expanded, and the support for Shanghai gold remained despite the RMB appreciation. The overall situation is neutral, with some bullish and bearish factors coexisting [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price also rose and then fell after the agreements. Although the domestic commodity sentiment cooled, the silver price still had support and remained relatively strong. The overall situation is also neutral, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal. The US stock market rose, the US bond yield increased, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated. The COMEX gold futures fell 1.34% to $3397.50 per ounce. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the gold price rose and then fell [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price rose and then fell. The COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $39.52 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -4.4, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures was 28,857 kilograms and remained unchanged, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis was -38, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 10,564 kilograms to 1,188,482 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the preliminary GDP data of South Korea in the second quarter, the preliminary PMI data of Japan, Europe, and the US in July, the visits of European leaders to China, and the discussions of the New Zealand central bank on global tariffs and inflation [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion, rising stagflation expectations in the US, and tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The bearish factors include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, improved economic expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [10]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is also neutral. The bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the bearish factors also include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.55% to 222,660, the short positions increased by 10.31% to 68,052, and the net position increased by 3.59% to 154,608 [31]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 2.17% to 456,195, the short positions decreased by 0.57% to 370,832, and the net position decreased by 8.55% to 85,363 [32]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position increased significantly and was higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased and remained at a high level, while the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease but were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [39][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Powell's fake resignation letter caused a stir, the US-Japan agreement may be reached, and gold prices continued to rise. The risk - preference increased, but the gold price still went up due to high Fed rate - cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to - 2.3 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - Silver: With the domestic commodity boom, Shanghai silver continued to hit a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to about 380 yuan/kg, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stock indices closed mixed, European stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields declined across the board (10 - year US bond yield fell 3.17 basis points to 4.344%), the US dollar index dropped 0.49% to 97.36, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US and European stock indices closed mixed, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.29 (spot at a discount to futures, bearish); the inventory of gold futures remained unchanged at 28,857 kg (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 36 (spot at a discount to futures, neutral); the warehouse receipts of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 5,420 kg to 1,199,046 kg (neutral); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased (bullish) [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi - 10:00: Press conference on Hainan Free Trade Port construction - Time TBD: Precision Manufacturing Forum for Humanoid Robots from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: 2025 OpenAtom Open - Source Ecosystem Conference - Time TBD: 24th China Internet Conference from July 23 - 25 - Time TBD: First Shanghai International Low - Altitude Economy Expo from July 23 - 26 - Time TBD: Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru hosts EU - Japan annual summit - 22:00: US existing home sales in June, preliminary reading of Eurozone consumer confidence index in July - Time TBD: US President Trump's speech on "Winning the AI Race" [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation was neutral. The Fed rate - cut expectations were high, and the commodity upsurge supported the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold converged, and the domestic sentiment did not heat up [4]. - **Silver**: The domestic commodity boom led to Shanghai silver hitting a record high. The high Fed rate - cut expectations and the commodity upsurge supported the silver price, and the domestic sentiment heated up [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.46% to 210,949, the short position decreased by 1.35% to 61,692, and the net position increased by 4.12% to 149,257 [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long position decreased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.25% to 466,291, the short position increased by 1.38% to 372,943, and the net position decreased by 6.26% to 93,348 [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fed candidates have mentioned a potential rate cut in July, leading to a slight increase in gold and silver prices. The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, providing support for precious metal prices. The upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have also contributed to the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, which in turn has affected gold and silver prices [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but are more affected by tariff concerns [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.30% increase in COMEX gold futures to $3355.50 per ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield fell 3.98 basis points to 4.4095%, and the dollar index dropped 0.18% to 98.46. The gold futures price was 777.02, the spot price was 772.6, with a basis of - 4.42 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 15 kilograms to 28857 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [4]. - **Silver**: The Fed candidates' mention of a July rate cut led to a 0.32% increase in COMEX silver futures to $38.43 per ounce. The silver futures price was 9273, the spot price was 9225, with a basis of - 48 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 6009 kilograms to 1211076 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains high, and the upcoming stable - growth work plans for key industries will support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 0.9 yuan per gram [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price followed the increase in non - ferrous metal prices. The Shanghai silver premium remained at around 350 yuan per kilogram. The high expectation of a rate cut provided support for silver prices [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themed news. At 22:00, the U.S. June Conference Board Leading Index will be released [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are mixed. The expectation of a Fed rate cut and the upcoming industry stable - growth plans are positive factors, while the spot discount to futures and the decrease in warehouse receipts are negative factors [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also mixed. The expectation of a rate cut and the increase in non - ferrous metal prices are positive, while the spot discount to futures is negative [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.91% to 200,675, the short positions increased by 0.90% to 60,609, and the net position increased by 0.92% to 140,066 [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 4.26% to 488,153, the short positions increased by 6.58% to 378,056, and the net position decreased by 2.99% to 110,097 [5][30].

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals morning report released on July 16, 2025, by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department, focusing on gold and silver [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the mild CPI data boosting US stocks and bonds, the gold price declined. Even with the ongoing tariff issue, its impact on the gold price is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 2.4 yuan/gram. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [4]. - For silver, the mild CPI data also led to a decline in the silver price, and the impact of tariffs has cooled down. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. The silver price still has support, and attention should be paid to today's PPI data [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The mild CPI data boosted US stocks and bonds, causing the gold price to fall. US stocks closed mixed, European stocks closed down, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 4.80 basis points to 4.481%), the US dollar index rose 0.53% to 98.63, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $3330.50/ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the mild CPI data led to a decline in the silver price. COMEX silver futures fell 1.95% to $37.99/ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The gold futures warehouse receipt increased by 15 kg to 28,872 kg, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above it, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt decreased by 1023 kg to 1,222,959 kg, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:45: Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy. - Time TBD: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang to hold a press conference in Beijing; the 5th RISC - V China Summit from July 16 - 19 in Shanghai; the 2025 International Conference on Neuroscience and Brain - Computer Interface on July 16 in Baoding. - 14:00: UK June CPI. - 20:00: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) to speak. - 20:30: US June PPI. - 21:15: US June industrial production; Cleveland Fed President Harlan (2026 FOMC voter) to speak. - 22:00: Fed Governor Barr to speak on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution. - Next day 02:00: Fed to release the Beige Book. - Next day 03:30: Atlanta Fed President Bostic to participate in a Fox Business News program. - Next day 06:30: New York Fed President Williams (permanent FOMC voter) to speak on the US economy and monetary policy [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, and the futures warehouse receipt is 28,872 kg, an increase of 15 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 1,222,959 kg, a decrease of 1023 kg [5]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long position on July 15 was 198,038, an increase of 4,163 (2.15%) from July 14. The short position was 61,020, a decrease of 1,158 (-1.86%) from July 14. The net position was 137,018, an increase of 5,321 (4.04%) from July 14 [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long position on July 15 was 481,474, a decrease of 6,368 (-1.31%) from July 14. The short position was 361,612, a decrease of 4,498 (-1.23%) from July 14. The net position was 119,862, a decrease of 1,870 (-1.54%) from July 14 [5][32]. Other Data - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly but was higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase significantly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts started to decrease but were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated slightly after a brief rise due to Trump's sanctions on Russia not including new measures to restrict energy exports. The market is waiting for the US CPI data today, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to 1.8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. Although the overall trend remains strong, the ratio of silver to gold continues to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to around 280 yuan/kg. There is still support for silver prices [5]. - Since Trump took office, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, and gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, European three major stock indexes showed mixed performance, US bond yields rose across the board, the 10-year US bond yield increased by 2.40 basis points to 4.433%, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1722, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices also pulled back after a brief rise. COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -4.6, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 4272 kilograms to 28857 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral; the main net long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is -31, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 79611 kilograms to 1223982 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is bullish; the main net long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Things to Watch Today - 09:30: China's National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. - 10:00: China's Q2 GDP, January - June total retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size, urban fixed - asset investment, national real - estate development investment, June urban survey unemployment rate. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2025. - Time TBD: Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) will speak. - 14:45: Boston Fed President Collins (2025 FOMC voter) will speak. - 15:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference for private entrepreneurs. - Time TBD: The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index. - Time TBD: OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report. - 20:30: US June CPI, July New York Fed manufacturing index; Canada's June CPI. - 21:15: Fed Governor Bowman will give a welcome speech at a Fed - hosted meeting. - Time TBD: US President Trump will attend the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit. - Time TBD: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will speak at the Mansion House Dinner [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the verification between the new US government's policy expectations and the reality will continue, so gold prices are still likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position increased, and the long positions of the main players increased [4]. - **Silver**: The main net long position decreased, and the long positions of the main players decreased [5].