来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：鸽派预期助推金价，短期关注上方阻力突破 昨日金价开盘后直接启动涨势，价格稳步抬升，奠定日内多头基调；原计划在4050美元/盎司布局的空 单，因价格快速反弹至4060美元/盎司触发止损，随后果断反手进场多单，精准捕捉后续上涨行情；金 价突破关键心理关口4100美元/盎司后加速上行，多单于高位止盈离场，最终不仅覆盖空单止损损失， 还实现约30美元的净盈利；最终黄金日线收于一根饱满大阳线，收盘价定格于4115美元/盎司，单日涨 幅显著，技术形态进一步确认多头主导格局。 周二（11月11日）近期公布的美国经济数据密集表现疲软，成为推动黄金上涨的核心动力。就业市场新 增岗位大幅减少（部分受政府停摆影响），消费者信心指数超预期下滑，制造业PMI持续低迷，市场普 遍担忧美国经济复苏动能减弱；多位美联储高层发表鸽派言论，强调"需根据经济数据灵活调整政策"， 进一步强化市场对政策转向的预期。 不过，参议院已于周日程序性通过一项旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案，市场预计本周内正式结束 停摆的概率高达88%。若停摆结束，此前因政府机构停摆导致的就业、消费等经济数据缺失问题将逐步 缓解，短期市场风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: Due to the resurgence of European - American trade disputes, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai gold premium continued to expand to 0.1 yuan/gram. With the high dovish expectations of the shadow Fed, the gold price is supported. Considering the global situation after Trump's inauguration and the shift from inflation to recession expectations, the gold price is still likely to rise and hard to fall [4]. - **Silver**: After Trump announced to "fire" the current Fed governor, but the Fed stated that Trump's power to remove the governor was limited, the silver price fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai silver premium expanded to about 440 yuan/kg. The silver price still mainly follows the gold price and is affected by tariff concerns [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose slightly, European three major stock indexes fell across the board. Most US bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 0.78 basis points to 4.261%. The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 98.24, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1534. COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.4, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 43, neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 13692 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Attention - Time TBD, from August 27th - 29th, the 2025 AGIC Shenzhen (International) General Artificial Intelligence Conference and General Artificial Intelligence Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center. - At 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in July and Australia's CPI in July will be released. - At 12:01, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a 2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economy again [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump's inauguration, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: It follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 625,171, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day; the short position volume was 472,276, an increase of 0.25%; the net position was 152,895, an increase of 1.14% [30]. - **Silver**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 1,082,920, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous day; the short position volume was 993,680, a decrease of 2.78%; the net position was 89,240, a decrease of 8.77% [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve from former President Trump and the financial market's strong bets on a dovish stance from the Fed during the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him a "disaster" for maintaining high interest rates that harm the housing market and restrict access to mortgages for Americans [3]. - Trump has repeatedly called for significant rate cuts and has suggested he would appoint the next Fed chair, indicating a desire for a more aggressive monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Betting - Financial markets are showing strong expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with traders placing substantial bets on this outcome [4]. - The number of options contracts betting on a 50 basis point cut has reached 325,000, with a premium cost of approximately $10 million, indicating a potential profit of $100 million if the Fed follows through [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - A shift in market sentiment is evident, with investors moving away from short positions to a more neutral stance, as indicated by a recent JPMorgan survey [5]. - However, there are risks associated with this consensus, as any deviation from expected dovish comments by Powell could negatively impact the bond market [5]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Strategies - Different types of institutional investors are displaying varied strategies; asset managers are favoring long-term bonds, while hedge funds are employing complex strategies involving both long and short positions in different maturities [6]. - The mixed signals from bond options indicate a divergence in expectations, with traders preparing for a steepening of the yield curve [6].

Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran by Trump has significantly reduced safe-haven demand for gold, leading to a decline in gold prices [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold opened at $3368 per ounce and fell to a low of $3333.16, with a daily decline of 0.42% [1][2]. - The market sentiment shifted towards risk assets as geopolitical tensions eased, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data showed weakness, with May retail sales down 0.9% and industrial output down 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in consumer and manufacturing momentum [7]. - Despite the weak data reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal, the focus shifted to geopolitical easing, diminishing the inflation support for gold prices [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold's daily closing price fell below the critical support level of $3350, establishing a bearish trend [7]. - The hourly chart indicates a bearish outlook, with resistance at $3370 and potential targets for further declines at $3340 and $3320-3300 [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest gold will remain in a trading range of $3337 to $3362, influenced by geopolitical developments and technical levels [12]. - A recovery above $3350 or renewed geopolitical tensions could lead to a rebound in gold prices, while sustained trading below $3337 may trigger further declines [12].