Core Viewpoint - Silver is experiencing a bullish trend despite short-term fluctuations, supported by structural demand from electrification and photovoltaic sectors, alongside geopolitical tensions and moderate Federal Reserve expectations [3][4]. Market Performance - As of September 25, silver is trading above $43.92, with a current price of $43.96, reflecting a 0.16% increase from the opening price of $43.89 [1]. - The highest price reached today is $44.00, while the lowest is $43.76, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1]. Federal Reserve Influence - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlight a policy environment with upward inflation risks and downward employment risks, impacting market sentiment [3]. - Following a recent interest rate cut, traders anticipate two more cuts of 25 basis points this year, with probabilities of 93% and 79% for October and December, respectively [3]. Economic Indicators - Traders are focused on the upcoming personal consumption expenditures report, which could influence further rate cuts and impact the dollar and precious metals [4]. - A weak month-over-month data of 0.2% could pressure the dollar and potentially reignite upward momentum for silver and gold [4]. Technical Analysis - Silver prices recently touched a 14-year high of $44.47 before a slight pullback, maintaining an upward trend with bullish short-term moving averages [5]. - The price faces short-term resistance around $44.47, with a potential challenge of the psychological level at $45.00 if broken [5]. - Support is identified near $43.50, which could provide a buying opportunity for bulls if the price stabilizes [5]. - The RSI indicator is approaching 70, indicating strong upward momentum but also necessitating caution for potential pullbacks [5].

短期拨款提案参议院受阻，美国"政 府关门"风险再起 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 政治两极化发展和利益博弈致使美国重大公共政策制定陷入僵局，美国历史上曾 多次面临"政府关门""财政悬崖"以及债务违约的风险 美国两党因医疗保健支出分歧较大而导致短期拨款提案未能获得参议院通过，美 国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果届时两党之间未能就短期拨款 提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"而努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡；本次短期支出提案 是否通过并不会影响政府债务的发行和偿付，发生政府债务违约的风险很低 须延长补贴则应附加更严格的收入限制与防欺诈机制。考虑到美国参、众两议院将进 入为期一周的休会，而目前维持美国政府运转的资金大概率将会在 9 月末耗尽，如果 届时两党之间未能就短期拨款提案达成一致，美国"政府关门"风险将大幅走高。 美国两党依旧在为避免"政府关门"努力，但如果发生政府停摆，将会在短期内 冲击联邦政府机构的运行，导致政府功能受限和资本市场震荡； ...

Core Points - The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing due to a stalemate between the two parties over spending issues, which could lead to a significant disruption in the release of key economic data [1][2] - If the government shuts down, major federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), are expected to suspend operations, delaying critical reports such as employment data, CPI, PPI, and retail sales [1][3] - The Federal Reserve may find it challenging to assess economic conditions without the latest inflation and employment data, making it less likely to deviate from its previously established economic forecasts [1][4] Group 1 - The current fiscal year funding for the U.S. federal government will run out on September 30, and without congressional action, a government shutdown will begin on October 1 [2] - The political impasse is primarily due to irreconcilable differences between the two parties, with Republicans favoring a "clean" continuing resolution and Democrats seeking to reverse previous cuts to healthcare subsidies [2] - Unlike previous shutdowns, the debt ceiling is not a focal point in this situation, meaning there is no immediate risk of a technical default by the U.S. government [2] Group 2 - A government shutdown would create an "information vacuum" for the market, as the Labor Department and its agencies would likely close on October 1, affecting the release of key economic data [3][4] - Key reports that would be delayed include the employment report on October 4, CPI on October 15, PPI on October 16, and retail sales on October 16, along with the preliminary GDP for Q3 on October 30 [3] - Some data, such as industrial production reports from the Federal Reserve and private sector data, will not be affected by the shutdown [3] Group 3 - If the shutdown extends, the Federal Reserve will have limited access to top-tier official data, making it more likely to adhere to its September economic projections [4] - Historical data shows that government shutdowns can vary significantly in duration, impacting the timely release of economic data [4][5] - Even after the government reopens, statistical agencies may take considerable time to catch up on backlogged work, leading to further delays in data releases [5]

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 美国政坛的"黑天鹅"正在临近。 随着美国共和党提出的临时拨款法案在美国参议院未获通过，美国政府"关门"的可能性大幅攀升。美东时间9 月19日，美国总统特朗普警告称，美国政府很可能会在10月进入"关门"状态，因两党谈判陷入僵局。 有分析指出，目前两党如何避免政府关门仍不明朗，相较于以往，这次美国政府关门的可能性更高。一旦政府 停摆，数十万联邦雇员将被迫休假，许多政府业务将受限。 特朗普警告：政府很可能关门 据央视新闻，美东时间9月19日，美国众议院通过的共和党拨款法案在参议院未获通过。随后美国总统特朗普 警告称，美国政府停摆的可能性正在上升，原因是共和党与民主党谈判陷入僵局。 当天稍早，美国众议院以217票赞成、212票反对的结果通过了为期七周的临时拨款法案，为政府提供资金直 至11月21日，避免即将到来的政府停摆。 但在共和党控制的参议院，投票结果为44票赞成、48票反对，未达到通过所需的60票门槛。值得注意的是， 共和党参议员兰德·保罗和丽莎·穆尔科斯基投了反对票，而民主党参议员约翰·费特曼则投下 ...

几十年来，美国国会一直未能按时完成年度拨款法案的审议工作，今年也不例外。 随着本月底美国政府关门的风险加剧，在美国国会本周复会后，外界熟悉的民主党和共和党的党派分歧 再次出现。 从当地时间周二（2日）开始，返回国会的议员们就悬而未决的政府资金问题开始互相指责、针锋相 对。美国众议院和参议院将于9月22日当周开始休会，这也意味着，国会在9月份仅剩14个工作日来达成 两党协议，要么延长资金拨款，要么政府"关门"。 有相关人士称，预计议员们将诉诸一项短期拨款法案，即所谓的"持续决议"，以暂时避免政府停摆。 特朗普怎么说 "众议院共和党人致力于保住政府，但不幸的是，并非所有民主党人都认同这一点，他们正在让政府承 担关门的压力。"众议院议长、路易斯安那州共和党众议员约翰逊周三表示，"如果政府关门，那将是因 为民主党人拒绝了为政府拨款的常识性解决方案。" 当被问及他是否认为政府"关门"可以避免时，特朗普周三回答说："是的，我这么认为。我认为共和党 会投票支持延期。" 随后，特朗普抨击民主党人，称民主党人中"没有人会投票支持延长最后期限以维持政府运转"。 "我们不会得到任何民主党人的赞成票。即使我们能拿出史上最大规模的预算 ...

自1981年以来，美国已发生过14次部分政府关门，其中大部分只持续一两天。最近一次发生在特朗普的 第一任期内，从2018年12月持续到2019年1月，长达34天。 特朗普的共和党在众议院以219对212席占多数，在参议院以53对47席占优势，但参议院的规则要求大多 数法案需要60票才能通过，这意味着通过一项拨款法案将需要七名民主党人的支持。 一场先发制人的"甩锅游戏"已于今夏开始，并在争论如果国会失败导致部分政府关门，哪一方应承担责 任。 在共和党人批准特朗普削减90亿美元对外援助和公共媒体资金的请求之前，参议院少数党领袖查克·舒 默（Chuck Schumer）在7月份的一封信中表示，由于共和党削减了国会已批准的资金，多数党不应期望 民主党在两党拨款程序中"一切如常"。 美国国会将于周二复会，留给它履行其核心职能之一，即维持联邦机构资金运转并避免部分政府关门的 时间已不足一个月，而这项工作近年来已变得越来越难以完成。 在特朗普总统新一届政府的第一年里，国会激烈的党派分歧已经加剧，特朗普政府决定不支出先前在两 党协议下批准的部分资金，以及7月份通过的一项减税法案，这些都激怒了民主党议员，无党派分析人 士称该法 ...