经合组织预计今年美联储利率不会发生变化。如果通胀仍接近目标，一些央行可以继续降息。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results, with Shanghai gold futures at 780.10 CNY per gram, up 0.10%, and Shanghai silver futures at 8263.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.37% [1] - International precious metals saw an overall increase, with COMEX gold priced at 3329.60 USD per ounce, up 1.05%, and COMEX silver at 33.39 USD per ounce, up 0.63% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 775.22 CNY and 8236.00 CNY respectively, with their highest prices reaching 780.58 CNY and 8286.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, exceeding expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI also increased to 52.3 [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, lower than the previous week's 229,000 and below the expected 230,000, indicating a stable labor market [3] - Recent market analysis indicated that gold faced profit-taking pressure after a recent rally, with a stronger dollar acting as a negative factor, although the overall outlook for gold remains bullish due to global bond market volatility [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][18]. Core Insights - The global manufacturing PMI is weakening, indicating a potential economic turning point, leading to a weak performance in basic metals [6][11]. - Despite short-term price weakness in basic metals, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside potential, particularly for rigid supply varieties like aluminum and copper [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 29,468.06 billion and a circulating market value of 27,667.90 billion [3]. - The A-share market overall rose, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.07 percentage points [21][25]. Economic Factors - The April manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49, indicating contraction, with new orders PMI at 49.2 [36]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI also declined to 48.7, reflecting similar trends [38]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index dropped significantly to -18.5 [47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: Trade uncertainties and weak demand expectations have led to a decline in aluminum prices post-holiday. The operating capacity for electrolytic aluminum remains stable at 43.835 million tons [9][55]. - **Alumina**: The supply-demand balance is tight, with production decreasing and some companies reportedly violating production regulations, creating short-term bullish sentiment [12]. - **Copper**: The processing fees for copper concentrate are declining, while domestic refined copper production is increasing, indicating a deepening conflict in the mining and metallurgy sectors [14]. - **Zinc**: Domestic refined zinc production is growing, with social inventories at historically low levels [16]. Inventory and Pricing - Overall inventory levels for basic metals are low, with specific metrics indicating a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory to 694,000 tons [10][57]. - The current price for electrolytic aluminum is around 19,550 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.49% decrease [57].

黄金行情前瞻中 黄金日内大跌100美元！美联储利率维持"等待"，后市金价应该维持空头趋势还是触底反弹？TTPS团队 交易学长正在直播中，点击观看！ 相关链接 ...

美国至5月7日美联储利率决定(上限) 4.5%，预期4.50%，前值4.50%。 ...

市场博弈利润源自错误，生存依赖自律，你的盈利，往往来自于他人的亏损。每一次价格的波动，都暗藏着市场参与者判断的偏差和决策的失误。然而，我 们无法预知下一刻谁会犯错，也无法保证自己永远站在正确的一方。在这场博弈中，唯一可控的，便是当自己犯错时，如何将损失控制在最小范围内。交易 的本质，就是在不断试错中等待他人的失误，并从中捕捉盈利的机会。 黄金分析： 鉴于当前不确定性加剧、关税政策落地、通胀预期升温以及家庭与企业信心下滑，市场普遍预计美联储本周将维持政策利率不变。美联储主席鲍威尔或暗示 不急于降息，并提及关税将推高通胀、拖累经济增长。随着关税实施，未来数月通胀将显著攀升，美国经济下半年恐陷入轻度衰退，三、四季度经济活动与 就业或双双收缩。老郑预计美联储今年7月和9月各降息25基点、2026年再降息两次的基准预测。 市场的风云变幻往往出人意料，此前空头主导的市场格局瞬间打破，多头力量强势崛起，推动金价一路上行。日内早间，金价快速自3320拉升至3385美元， 仅仅用了两天时间，收复了假期前所有的跌幅，黄金上涨的底层逻辑没有变过，美债危机已经是摆在眼前的事实了，其他的都是配角，特朗普所有的举动就 是为了解决美债危机 ...

白宫经济委员会主任Hassett：美联储将决定在利率上想要采取什么行动。 我不对美联储利率发表评论。 ...

白宫经济顾问哈塞特：不对美联储利率发表评论。 ...