Markets are continuing to price in an interest rate cut in December. That's despite uh Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Pal's recent hawkish comments, saying another cut this year is not a foregone conclusion. And it's not just rate cuts that have all eyes on the Fed this year.Investors are also waiting to see who will become the next Fed chair and what the future of Fed independence will look like due to ongoing pressure from President Trump. Join me now at Invest is Le Brainer, former Federal Reserve vice cha ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain weak in the medium to long term, despite being overvalued since Trump's presidency began [1] Group 1: Dollar Valuation - Analysts believe the dollar is still overvalued, even after a decline since Trump's inauguration [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have negatively impacted market sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expanding deficit poses a long-term risk to the stability of the US debt market [1] - Any potential recovery of the dollar is likely to be short-lived, as markets typically do not move in a straight line and will experience periods of consolidation [1]

美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克进行口头辩论。特朗普指控库克 多年前在抵押贷款文件上作假陈述，但她未受任何指控。 分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若 裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美元。 尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降息，但 鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65%。 摘要周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/ 盎司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向上涨走势。 周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/盎 司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为， ...

【#黄金还会再涨500美元吗#？#美联储理事任免或影响黄金涨跌#】黄金正在等待下一轮上涨的驱动因 素。美国最高法院周三表示，将在明年1月21日举行口头辩论，讨论美国总统特朗普是否有权解雇美联 储理事库克。市场认为这一结果将决定美联储未来的独立性强弱，并成为推动黄金价格飙升至历史新高 的一个重要因素。StoneX市场分析主管Rhona O'Connell在周三的一份报告中指出，黄金市场将密切关 注这一进程。如果判决对特朗普有利，由于美联储独立性降低，金价可能会上涨500美元/盎司。这是一 个利好，但美元走软可能会产生进一步的影响。而如果法院判决对库克有利，情况则恰恰相反。（智通 财经） ...

（原标题："大鹰派"意外宣布提前退休，美联储货币政策再添疑云） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 在特朗普政府谋求扩大对美联储人事影响力之际，当地时间11月12日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克意外 宣布将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，现年59岁的博斯蒂克距离美联储强制退休年龄还有五年多， 他本可以再连任一届。 与此同时，亚特兰大联储董事会已启动遴选程序，预计将在明年2月底前敲定继任者。 需要注意的是，博斯蒂克是"鹰派"官员的代表。他表示，在看到"明确证据"显示通胀正朝美联储2%的 目标回落前，他倾向于维持利率在当前水平。在评估美联储"双重使命"所面临的风险时，他认为"更明 确且更紧迫的风险仍然在于物价稳定"。 随着"大鹰派"意外提前退休，美联储货币政策不确定性愈发浓厚。 博斯蒂克主动回避了一场可能的连任争议。白宫正寻求重塑美联储决策层，美联储理事丽莎·库克正遭 遇罢免危机，明年美联储主席也将换人。 根据现行制度，美国总统并不直接提名12家地区联储主席人选，但相关任命需经美联储理事会批准。所 有12位地区联储主席都需在五年任期结束后重新寻求连任，这一过程通常低调且例行化。但如果特朗普 政府试图在人事上施加 ...

Group 1 - The overall outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a strong oscillation at high levels in the short term, driven by various market factors [1] - The expectation of the U.S. government reopening and the return of interest rate cut expectations are contributing to a bullish sentiment for gold prices [2] - The retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is likely to lead to a more dovish stance within the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are a significant factor pushing gold prices higher, with potential implications for a $500 increase in gold prices if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the President [3] - Increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are creating upward pressure on gold prices, as investors seek alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The recent technical correction in gold prices has alleviated overbought market conditions, contributing to a renewed bullish momentum [3]

美联储柯林斯：美联储的独立性使其能够从长期视角出发，专注于以数据为导向的政策。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储米兰：我们保持独立性的唯一途径是不参与货币政策以外的事务。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metal market is currently under pressure from the US macro - situation but also supported by multiple risk factors. It is expected to continue its consolidation in the high - level range. The trading strategy recommends short - term traders to use a band - trading approach, and long - term investors to maintain a low - buying strategy. Meanwhile, it is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [5][6][7] - The interference with the Fed's independence by Trump may push up inflation in the medium - long term, which is one of the main drivers of the precious metal market's rise since late August [19] - The US economic growth shows signs of weakness. The GDP growth has a certain degree of deception, the labor market is cooling, and inflation is fluctuating. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation stickiness and employment market risks [27][34][48] - The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction, which marks a key step in monetary policy shifting from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting and seeing" [51] - In the precious metal market, the supply and demand of gold are both increasing, with investment demand leading the growth. The supply of silver is relatively stable, and the demand is mainly affected by photovoltaic silver consumption [53][54][66] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **US Macro - situation**: Fed officials have different views on the December interest - rate cut. Most are cautious, which has dampened market expectations for future interest - rate cuts. The US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, risks such as the government shutdown, tariff legal debates, and labor market risks support precious metals [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, gold ETFs had a net inflow of 54.9 tons. In Q3, there was a resonance in ETF, physical demand, and central bank gold - buying demand. Global gold ETF total holdings increased by 222 tons (a 30% quarter - on - quarter increase), bar and coin demand reached 316 tons (a 2.7% quarter - on - quarter increase), and global central bank gold - buying volume was 220 tons (a 28% quarter - on - quarter increase) [5] - **Futures Market**: Precious metals are currently under pressure and supported. The London gold range of $3900 - 4000, London silver range of $46 - 47 (Shanghai gold about 894 - 915 yuan, Shanghai silver about 11000 - 11200 yuan) show good support, but lack upward momentum. It is expected to continue to consolidate in the high - level range [6] - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Single - side Trading**: Short - term traders should mainly use a band - trading approach; long - term investors can continue the low - buying strategy [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Focus**: The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest - rate cut games. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, which may affect the Fed's independence and lead to medium - long - term inflation, driving up the precious metal market [19] - **US Economy - GDP**: The Q2 GDP growth was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.4%. However, the growth has a certain degree of deception. The net export item was abnormally high due to a large reduction in imports, and consumption and investment were weak [25][27] - **US Economy - Employment**: In August, the number of non - farm payrolls was 22,000, lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The labor market is cooling, and there are concerns about employment recession [34] - **US Economy - Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was better than expected, clearing the way for an October interest - rate cut. In August, the PPI was at a new low since June. Overall, inflation rebound is still moderate [45] - **Fed's Interest - rate Decision**: The October FOMC meeting dampened market expectations for an interest - rate cut. Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decline in the probability of a December interest - rate cut from over 90% to 70%. The future interest - rate cut rhythm will be affected by inflation and employment risks [46][47][48] - **Fed's Balance - sheet Reduction**: The Fed is about to end its balance - sheet reduction. The balance of the RRP account is nearly exhausted, and the bank reserve account is approaching the neutral level. Ending the balance - sheet reduction marks a shift in monetary policy [51] Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold - Supply and Demand**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. The total demand also increased by 1% to 3717 tons. Investment demand dominated in Q3, and central bank gold - buying volume remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [53][54] - **Central Bank Gold - buying**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India are the main buyers. The reasons for gold - buying vary by country [63][64] - **Silver - Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, and the demand was 36,208 tons, with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, with a narrowing supply - demand gap [66] - **Silver Inventory**: The LBMA silver inventory has dropped to a historical low, with about 24,000 tons, but the freely - tradable amount is only about 6000 tons. The silver lease rate soared in October and has initially eased [69]