Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" [1][2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price increased. Supply tightened due to safety inspections and regulatory changes, while demand rose during the "peak summer" period. This price increase may push up steel prices and attract more funds to the coal industry. Traders should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level. The A - share market had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [7][8]. - Gold may face short - term adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains. Traders can buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - Iron ore has a high overvaluation risk due to weak market conditions, but it showed a significant rebound today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [15][16]. - Glass supply is still high, and demand has not significantly increased. However, it showed a strong breakthrough today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [18][19]. - Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. The capacity replacement window may close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The new "Mineral Resources Law" will force 30% of small coal mines to exit, and the supply of high - quality coking coal is tight, with the spot price rising by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 240,000 tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82%, and the daily production of molten iron rebounded to 235,000 tons. Coking plants' operating rate was 73%, and steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, recovered, and finally pulled back at the end of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index held above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level [7]. Gold - Market News: The Fed decided not to cut interest rates, reducing the expectation of rate cuts this year, leading to a short - term adjustment in gold prices [12]. - Outlook: The long - term upward trend of gold remains. Traders can buy on dips when the price reaches an important support level [11]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply increased month - on - month, molten iron production declined seasonally, and port inventories increased again. The weak market increased the risk of overvaluation [16]. - Outlook: After a significant rebound today, a bullish view is now appropriate [15]. Glass - Market Conditions: There has been no large - scale cold repair of production lines due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not significantly increased [19]. - Outlook: After a strong breakthrough today, a bullish view is now appropriate [18]. Soybean Oil - Market News: The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation are uncertain, which may cause short - term oscillations or strengthen the price of soybean oil [21]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous high temperatures in China's central and eastern regions have led to record-high electricity loads, prompting power companies to implement measures to ensure stable power supply and grid operation [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Load and Supply Measures - Jiangsu's electricity grid has experienced three record-high loads, reaching 152 million kilowatts, with all 13 prefecture-level cities in the province setting new records [1]. - The State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company has adopted a "live-line work" approach to minimize power outages, successfully reducing the number of affected households by 120 during maintenance [1]. - In response to high temperatures, 93 new energy storage stations in Jiangsu provided a maximum discharge power of 7.14 million kilowatts, sufficient to meet the hourly electricity needs of approximately 48 million households [2]. Group 2: Maintenance and Emergency Response - The State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company has identified 34 key substations and 359 transmission lines for priority maintenance, deploying over 900 specialized repair teams on standby [3]. - In Anhui, the maximum electricity load reached 66.88 million kilowatts, a 5.26% increase from the previous year, prompting the implementation of time-of-use pricing policies to manage demand [5]. - The company has initiated a reward program for residents to encourage energy-saving behaviors, with 301,800 users participating in the first event, resulting in a load reduction of 311,300 kilowatts [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the near future, but the upside potential is limited. The peak summer electricity - coal demand is strong, and the mid - and downstream inventories are gradually being depleted, which drives the coal price to rise slightly. However, the relatively high port inventory still suppresses the coal price rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - After the end of the national safety production month, coal mines with production stoppages and restrictions in the main production areas have gradually resumed production after rectification, leading to a slight increase in thermal coal supply [5]. Demand - Since July, domestic temperatures have further risen. In some coastal provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the maximum temperature has exceeded 40°C, resulting in strong residential cooling demand during the peak summer period. The National Climate Center predicts that most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures in July 2025, and the precipitation in the southern part of the south - western region will be 20% - 50% more than normal, providing room for seasonal improvement in hydropower [5]. Port Inventory - As of July 3, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 27.493 million tons, with a weekly de - stocking of 747,000 tons. The inventory is still at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years, and the sufficient coal inventory in the northern ports continues to suppress coal prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. The supply was tight due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Meanwhile, demand increased during the "peak summer" period, with high power plant consumption, rising coking industry and iron - making开工率. The price increase may raise steel production costs and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity of low - buying on dips [3]. - For stock index futures, considering the June CPI and PPI data, the market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply is rising, iron - making output is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. There is a risk of overvaluation, and steel mill profits should be monitored. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. - For glass, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. - For soybean oil, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. There are rumors that the capacity replacement window will close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The implementation of the Mineral Resources Law on July 1 led to about 30% of small coal mines facing exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi, causing a shortage of high - quality coking coal and a 50 - yuan/ton increase in spot price [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily power plant consumption exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry开工率 reached 82%, a new high for the year. The daily iron - making output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant开工率 was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand situation: Supply increased month - on - month, iron - making output decreased seasonally, and ports started restocking. The weak reality increased the risk of overvaluation, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses in the supply side, factory inventories are still high, downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation, and demand has not increased significantly. It is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policy. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20].

"110千伏滨和变10千伏豪居6D82线送电成功，运行正常！"7月5日凌晨，随着最后一条10千伏出线 送电成功，110千伏滨和变电站正式投产。作为滨江区第13座110千伏变电站，该站的建成将显著缓解滨 江中东部区域的用电压力，为夏季用电高峰提供坚实保障。 滨和变电站位于长河街道，紧邻互联网产业园，周边居民住宅区多、企业密集，对供电可靠性和电 能质量要求极高。近年来，随着区域经济快速发展，电力负荷持续攀升，原有西兴变等变电站供电能力 已接近饱和。为此，滨江区政府于去年10月启动滨和变电站建设，并将其列为今年迎峰度夏重点工程。 滨和变电站的投用，将有效分流西兴变、江虹变、江一变等重载变电站负荷，进一步优化滨江电网 结构。 为赶在夏季用电高峰前投运，滨江区政府牵头成立专项工作组，区发改、住建、规资等多部门协同 发力，在站址选址、管线迁改、项目审批等环节按下"加速键"，推动项目整体建设周期从原计划的13个 月压缩至8个月。6月24日，变电站主体已经建成，进入最后的配套线路建设阶段。 "滨和变的投运将直接提升互联网产业园区域供电能力30%以上，重点保障阿里巴巴全球跨境电商 基地、浙大医学院附属二院滨江院区及物联网产业园 ...

Core Insights - The Guangdong Power Grid Company has reached a new peak load of 15,974 megawatts on July 7, 2023, representing a 1.94% increase compared to the highest load in 2024 [1][3] - The company has completed 11 key projects in the main grid this year to ensure reliable power supply during the summer peak [3] Group 1: Power Supply and Infrastructure - As of June 30, 2023, the Guangdong Power Grid Company has completed 57 main grid projects, including the connection project for the 500 kV Maoming Boge Power Plant units 3 and 4, and the second phase of the Guangdong West Grid Optimization project [3] - The company has also enhanced the reliability of the distribution network, completing over 11,000 distribution network projects in the first half of the year, a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - The installed capacity of newly commissioned transformers has increased by 84% year-on-year, and the length of newly commissioned medium-voltage lines has increased by 60%, marking the highest number of distribution network projects completed in the past five years [3] Group 2: Load Forecast and Management - The maximum load for the city during the summer peak is expected to exceed 5.5 million kilowatts, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [4] - The Qingyuan Power Supply Bureau has successfully completed the expansion of five substations, which will effectively address supply bottlenecks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new quantitative regulations have led to a significant decrease in trading volume, with a total turnover of 1.21 trillion yuan, down over 200 billion yuan, indicating a serious contraction in market activity [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The initial impact of the new quantitative regulations has caused a short-term pain in the market, but it is expected to benefit the healthy development of the market in the long run [3] - Leading institutions are shifting towards fundamental quantitative strategies and AI stock selection models, which will favor long-term investors in the future [4] Group 2: Power Sector Insights - The power sector is experiencing a resurgence, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up due to high temperatures and increased electricity demand during the summer peak [5][6] - National statistics show that on July 4, the maximum national power load reached 1.465 billion kilowatts, an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year, marking a historical high [7] - Analysts suggest focusing on the power sector due to the rising electricity load and the positive performance of thermal power companies, which have seen nearly 70% of listed companies report year-on-year profit growth in Q1, largely due to falling coal prices [9] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Developments - The real estate sector has become active following a series of favorable policies released since June by the central bank and other regulatory bodies, leading to a warming market atmosphere [11] - Analysts recommend focusing on high-quality residential properties, particularly in core cities with strong land acquisition capabilities and product strength, as they are likely to benefit from the current policy environment [11]

Market Overview - On July 7, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% and 1.21% respectively, indicating overall market volatility [1] - Among the major indices, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.24%, leading the gains [2] Hong Kong Market - On the same day, Hong Kong's three major indices had mixed results, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.26% [4] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the top gainers included the comprehensive sector (2.57%), utilities (1.87%), and real estate (1.68%), while coal (-2.04%), pharmaceuticals (-0.97%), and telecommunications (-0.77%) were the biggest losers [7] Power Sector Insights - The A-share electricity sector saw a collective surge in the afternoon due to high temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, with a historical peak load recorded on July 4 [7] - Guosheng Securities suggests focusing on the electricity sector due to summer demand spikes and upcoming earnings reports, while Xiangcai Securities highlights the ongoing construction of a unified national electricity market as a positive catalyst for asset value reassessment [7] Real Estate Sector Insights - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has been conducting research in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, emphasizing the need for localized and precise real estate policies to stabilize the market [8] - Huatai Securities notes that recent government signals indicate a stronger push to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for accelerated policy implementation in first-tier cities and core areas [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 电力 高温炙烤创纪录，电力配置正当时 本周行情回顾：本周（6.30-7.4）上证指数报收 3472.32 点，上涨 1.40%，沪 深 300 指数报收 3982.20 点，上涨 1.54%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2988.40 点，上涨 1.69%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.15pct，位列 30 个中信一级 板块涨跌幅榜第 9 位。 个股方面，电力及公用事业板块上市公司超半数上涨。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：高温席卷全国，迎峰度夏电力负荷攀升，本周创历史新高，迎峰度 夏叠加业绩期催化，建议重视电力板块配置。建议关注季度业绩具备弹性的火 电板块：华能国际、建投能源、华电国际、申能股份、宝新能源；以及火电灵 活性改造龙头：青达环保。推荐关注存量项目占比较高&短期收益确定性更优、 以及中长期更具降本增效优势绿电运营商。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先 关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、中闽能源、 福能股份。把握水核防御，关注随着汛期与雨季到来后来水弹性改善标的，建 议关注长江电力、国投电力、川 ...

为积极应对迎峰度夏大负荷用电，国家电网全力推动增发稳供，积极做好机组并网服务和运行管理，保 障各类电网"应并尽并、稳发满发"；还将充分利用特高压大电网的资源配置能力，将西南的水电、西北 的风电光伏输送至中东部负荷中心精准支援，跨区跨省输电电力最大超过2亿千瓦，全力保障电力可靠 供应。（丁怡婷） 安徽芜湖 ，晨雾笼罩输电塔。 （资料图 ） 目前全国电力供应总体平稳有序。据中国气象局预测，7月4日至10日，黄淮、江汉、江南等地将出现持 续性高温天气，部分地区达到或超过历史同期极值，预计华东、华中地区电力负荷还将不断攀升，带动 全国电力负荷持续增长。 记者从国家能源局获悉： 7月4日，全国最大电力负荷达到14.65亿千瓦，创历史新高 ，较6月底上升约2 亿千瓦，较去年同期增长近1.5亿千瓦。 入夏以来， 江苏、安徽、山东、河南、湖北等地电网负荷创历史新高。 其中，江苏电网负荷首次突破 1.5亿千瓦，最高负荷较春季平均增长近4000万千瓦，约90%增量负荷为空调制冷用电。 （转自《人民日报》） ...