黑色建材
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黑色建材日报:成本重心下移,钢价震荡偏弱-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1][2] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [3][4] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly; Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal coal: No specific rating, but price trend is weakening and then stabilizing [8] Group 2: Core Views - Steel: With the cost center shifting down and the traditional off - season approaching, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Although the current inventory is decreasing, the demand for building materials may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to the demand performance and inventory accumulation during the off - season [1] - Iron ore: In the short term, prices are relatively firm due to high demand and slight inventory reduction. In the long term, it shows a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the timing of the shift to a loose situation depends on future consumption and supply - side policies [3] - Coking coal and coke: Coking coal has significant inventory pressure and is in a weak downward trend. Coke supply is declining, and short - term demand is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pressure of coking coal is still large [5][6] - Thermal coal: In the short term, the demand support is limited, but the price decline is slowing down as the peak season approaches. In the long term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment during the peak summer season [8] Group 3: Summary by Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures opened lower and ran weakly. The overall spot trading of steel was weak, with only low - price rigid demand being acceptable and speculative sentiment being poor. Building material inventory decreased, while coil inventory increased slightly [1] - Supply and demand logic: The current supply and demand of plates are both strong, and the production and sales of building materials are acceptable. However, with the arrival of the off - season and the restrictions on noise operations during the college entrance examination, the demand for building materials may be affected, and the support for steel prices is weakening [1] Iron ore - Futures and spot: The futures price of iron ore oscillated, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and the market trading sentiment was cold. Steel mills mainly replenished inventory on demand. The daily trading volume increased compared with the previous day [3] - Supply and demand logic: Currently, the iron ore demand is still high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long term, it is in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the future situation depends on consumption and supply - side policies [3] Coking coal and coke - Futures and spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. Due to high inventory pressure at the port, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal oscillated at a low level. The terminal demand was weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at reduced prices [5] - Supply and demand logic: Coke supply is declining, and short - term demand is under pressure. Coking coal is in a situation of increasing inventory and strong market pressure on raw materials, and the supply may be affected by safety inspections in June [6] Thermal coal - Futures and spot: At the production site, coal prices were weakly stable. At the port, the inventory decreased during the holiday but was still at a high level, and the demand was average. The price of imported coal was still inverted, and the procurement enthusiasm was not high [8] - Supply and demand logic: In the short term, the demand support is limited, but the price decline is slowing down as the peak season approaches. In the long term, the supply is loose [8] Group 4: Summary by Strategy Steel - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron ore - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking coal and coke - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly; Coke: Oscillating; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [7] Thermal coal - No specific strategy mentioned in the text
黑色建材日报:市场预期悲观,黑色震荡下行-20250527
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 03:54
1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].