Core Viewpoint - The market's perception of valuation levels for the PCB and CCL industries has become more rational, with fundamental changes becoming more critical drivers of stock prices rather than valuation and earnings growth [1][2]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry has shown significant improvement in fundamentals, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 24% and a net profit growth of 52% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The average gross margin for PCB companies has risen to 20.2%, and the net profit margin has increased to 6.1% [3]. - Export quantities for PCB remained stable, with a notable year-on-year growth of 14% in February, although March showed no significant increase due to high base effects [3]. CCL Industry - The CCL industry has also seen improvements, with all major manufacturers achieving profitability in Q1 2025, and average gross and net profit margins rising to 15% and 3%, respectively [4]. - CCL manufacturers experienced a year-on-year price increase of 17%, 23%, and 14% from January to March, indicating strong market demand [4][5]. - The monthly revenue growth for Taiwanese CCL manufacturers was 22%, 60%, and 34% from January to March, reflecting a strengthening market sentiment [5]. Investment Strategy - The PCB industry is expected to continue its growth momentum into 2025, with a confirmed upward trend in demand recovery [6]. - Despite concerns over long-term demand due to trade tensions, the current stock prices and valuations in the sector are believed to reflect the worst expectations, presenting opportunities for strong alpha companies [6].

盈利预测及投资建议：展望未来，我们认为公司高多层产品结构有望进一步优化，更高层数产品占比提 升，成为公司营收业绩增长的又一支柱。同时公司新产品放量及HDI 与高多层新建产能爬坡（惠州工 厂在现有产能基础上新扩50%HDI 和30%高多层，泰国工厂后续结合HDI 工艺的复合型高多层产能将投 产，越南工厂规划布局HDI 产品），叠加全球头部客户示范效应下，全球市场进一步打开。预计公司 2025/2026/2027 年分别实现营收201.21/281.97/345.68 亿元，归母净利润56/85/106 亿元，对应PE 为 12.7/8.4/6.7x，看好公司全球高阶HDI 龙头地位，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、行业竞争加剧、研发不及预期、数据测算误差。 AI PCB 全球核心厂商，进入营收业绩爆发期。胜宏科技实现PCB 全品类覆盖（PTH、HDI、FPC、软 硬结合板RigidFlex、FPCA、PCBA 等），具备70 层高精密线路板、28 层八阶HDI 线路板、14 层高精 密HDI 任意阶互联板、12 层高精密板软硬结合板RigidFlex、10 层高精密FPC/FPCA（线宽25um ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenghong Technology [5] Core Views - Shenghong Technology's Q1 2025 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating the beginning of high growth driven by barriers, customers, and R&D, positioning the company as a global leader in AI PCB [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.731 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, and a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan, up 69.0% year-on-year [11] - For Q1 2025, the forecasted net profit ranges from 780 million to 980 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 272.12% to 367.54% [2] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company anticipates a significant increase in orders for high-value products such as high-density interconnect (HDI) and AI multi-layer boards, driven by the acceleration of new AI server products from overseas major clients [2][3] - The complexity and high barriers associated with AI HDI technology are highlighted, with Shenghong's capabilities demonstrating a significant competitive advantage over other leading manufacturers [3] Product Development - Shenghong Technology has achieved a leading position in AI HDI technology and is rapidly advancing in high multi-layer board technology, collaborating closely with key clients to explore new product structures and materials [4] - The company has successfully integrated new technologies and materials, enhancing its product offerings and establishing a strong technical barrier in the industry [4] Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of AI HDI technology, which is essential for the performance upgrades of chip products, necessitating more efficient PCB designs [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the high demand for AI PCBs, with ongoing capacity expansions in Thailand and Vietnam to meet global needs [9] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 20.115 billion yuan and 26.200 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 4.620 billion yuan and 6.391 billion yuan [9] - The report projects a significant increase in profitability, with a PE ratio of 13.1 for 2025 and 9.4 for 2026, indicating strong future earnings potential [11]