Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the U.S. has significantly increased imports, but the accumulation of inventory has lagged behind, raising questions about the sustainability of this import surge and whether "safe" inventory levels will rise [2][57]. Group 1: Import Surge and Inventory Accumulation - The U.S. has experienced a notable surge in imports since early 2025, particularly following the election of Trump, which heightened expectations of increased tariffs. This surge is reflected in data from Chinese exports, U.S. imports, and port activity [2][57]. - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% in March. However, the inventory accumulation during this period was significantly lower, contributing only 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth compared to the 5 percentage points dragged down by imports [6][13][57]. - Monthly data indicates that the growth rate of U.S. imports has consistently outpaced that of inventory accumulation, suggesting a mismatch between import levels and inventory growth [19][57]. Group 2: Understanding the Discrepancy Between Inventory and Imports - The discrepancy between inventory accumulation and imports can be attributed to robust domestic demand and statistical lag in inventory reporting. In the first quarter, while inventory growth increased across most sectors, stable domestic demand, particularly in investment, kept the inventory-to-sales ratio relatively stable at 1.34 in March [3][23][57]. - Inventory growth typically lags behind import growth by about three months due to the time required for goods to be transported and recorded in inventory data. This suggests that the inventory levels are still on an upward trajectory [30][57]. - Since late 2024, excess imports of consumer goods have been sufficient to support approximately 1.3 months of consumption, raising concerns about potential impacts on retail pricing [31][57]. Group 3: Future of Import Demand - The momentum for U.S. imports is likely to diminish after the 90-day tariff suspension period ends, with key tariff deadlines approaching in July and August 2025. This could lead to a reduction in the urgency to import [4][35][57]. - Data suggests that inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand may suppress future import needs. The second quarter may see a lagged increase in inventory growth, coupled with a marginal decline in domestic demand, potentially reducing import momentum in the latter half of the year [4][45][57]. - The level of "safe" inventory remains a source of uncertainty, influenced by trade policy fluctuations and inflation levels. If trade uncertainties persist, companies may opt to maintain higher inventory levels [48][59][57].

美国钢铁(X.N)盘前小幅走高，现涨0.76%，此前美国总统特朗普表示计划将钢铁和铝进口关税翻倍至 50%。 ...

Industry Overview - Ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) is the fourth largest ethylene series polymer, produced through the copolymerization of ethylene and vinyl acetate [2][6] - China's EVA production capacity has grown significantly, from 972,000 tons in 2017 to 2.91 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% from 2020 to 2024 [6][8] - The production process in China primarily utilizes tubular and kettle methods, with tubular method accounting for over 65% of production capacity in 2024 [4][6] Production and Demand Trends - China's EVA production has increased from 756,000 tons in 2019 to 2.3835 million tons in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 33.25% [8][10] - However, the growth rate is expected to slow down, with a year-on-year increase of only 10.68% in 2024 due to a slowdown in downstream demand [8][10] - Despite the increase in domestic production, China still relies on imports, with EVA imports decreasing by 34.22% to 915,600 tons in 2024, reflecting improved domestic supply capabilities [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The EVA industry in China is characterized by a "four strong" competitive landscape, with companies like Oriental Rainbow, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Gulei Petrochemical, and Yulin Energy Coal holding significant market shares [13] - In 2024, Oriental Rainbow became the first company to exceed 500,000 tons in production capacity, significantly outpacing its competitors [13][19] Future Outlook - The EVA industry is expected to continue its capacity expansion cycle, with planned capacities exceeding 4 million tons from 2025 to 2028 [11][19] - The industry is likely to transition from a net importer to a net exporter, enhancing China's competitiveness in high-end polymer materials [11][20] - The demand for EVA is expanding into new fields such as photovoltaics and medical applications, with photovoltaic film demand exceeding 50% of total EVA demand [21][20]

Group 1 - Indonesia's imports in April increased by 21.84% year-on-year [1] - The total import value from January to April reached $76.29 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.27% [1]

韩国5月进口年率 5.3%，预期-3.1%，前值-2.70%。 ...

韩国5月进口同比 -5.3%，预期 -3.3%，前值 -2.7%。 ...

报 告 正 文 预计5月工业增加值同比增长6%。 5月全国制造业PMI回升至49.5%。主要分项指标中，产需双双回升，原材 料和出厂价格均有下行，库存原材料升、产成品降。从5月以来的中观高频数据来看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开 工率同比增速均有所下降。化工产业链开工率同比增速涨多跌少。六大发电集团耗煤同比增速有所回落。整体 来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，5月工业增加值同比增速降至6%。 预计5月固定资产投资累计同比增长3.9%。 4月固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至4%，具体来看三大类投资， 制造业投资和房地产投资累计同比增速有所下降，基建投资累计同比增速与上月相比基本持平。我们预计，5 月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，钢材综合价格指数同比增速持续走低，沥 青开工率累计同比由负转正，预计基建投资累计增速保持平稳； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比增速有所上 升，与房地产投资相关的浮法平板玻璃价格降幅有所收窄，预计房地产投资额累计降幅有所减小； 最后， 乘 联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比增速均有所放缓，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所下降。我们预计，5月 固定资产投资累计同比增速或略 ...

智通财经5月31日电，印度将食用油的基本进口关税减半至10%，自5月31日起生效，以控制当地价格并 支持食用油加工业。 ...

印度已将食用油的基本进口关税减半至10%，从5月31日起生效，以控制当地价格并支持食用油加工 业。（彭博） ...

Commodity Market Analytics董事总经理Dan Smith称："LME铜正面临一些压力，因为COMEX库存持续 上升，LME库存正在下降。" 5月30日（周五），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在美元走强的压力下下跌，但仍创下八个月来的最大 单月涨幅，原因是短期供应趋紧，现货铜合约对远期铜合约的溢价凸显了这一点。 伦敦时间5月30日17:00(北京时间5月31日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收低70美元或0.73%，收报每吨9,498 美元。该合约5月份上涨4.1%，创下9月份以来最强劲的一个月。 | | 5月30日LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 令屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期锅 | 9498.00 | 1 -70.00 -0.73% | | 三个月期铝 | 2444.00 | 1 -6.50 -0.27% | | 三个月期锌 | 2620.00 | - -55.50 -2.07% | | 三个月期铅 | 1958.00 -5.00 ↓ -0.25% | | | 三个月期镍 | 15237.00 -139.00 - ...