Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Trump is willing to resume tariff negotiations under pressure from the EU, leading to a drop in spot gold prices and a tense market environment [1] - The ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine situation is highlighted, with Trump publicly condemning Putin and the EU considering new sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is described as being in a state of contention, with various indices showing differing levels of bullish and bearish positions [3][4]

宏观 海外风险偏好回落影响市场表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 4 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，中美谈判乐观预期出 尽，叠加海外风险偏好回落，市场情绪偏弱，整体缩量。政 策方面，1 年期 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3%，5 年期以上 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3.5%，六大行及部分股份行下调人民币存款利率，幅度在 5-25bp 间。LPR 和存款利率同步下调，一方面降低居民企业融 资成本，另一方面降低银行放贷成本抬升放贷意愿，有助于二 季度实体 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,173.3 billion CNY, down by 92.9 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.88%[9] - The overall market sentiment weakened due to the exhaustion of optimistic expectations from China-US negotiations and a decline in overseas risk appetite[3] Monetary Policy - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3%, and the 5-year LPR was also reduced by 10 basis points to 3.5%[3] - Major banks adjusted deposit rates downwards by 5-25 basis points, which is expected to lower financing costs for residents and enterprises[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to finalize this year's construction project list by the end of June, potentially boosting construction activity in Q2[3] Economic Indicators - April economic data showed overall weakness, with ongoing downward pressure on housing prices, although export expectations have improved[3] - The average funding price increased slightly compared to the previous week, indicating a marginal tightening of liquidity[9] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 1.2 trillion CNY, including a 375 billion CNY increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations[9] International Market Trends - US stock markets declined, with the Dow Jones down 2.47%, S&P 500 down 2.61%, and Nasdaq down 2.47%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.51%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.98%[9] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing increased government debt and potential GDP growth slowdown due to tariff adjustments[3] Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and slower progress in China-US negotiations[3]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - US President Trump agreed to extend tariff negotiations with the EU until July 9, describing the talks as "very pleasant" [3] - Following the announcement, US and European stock index futures rose in early trading [4] - Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, 2025, claiming that the EU's main purpose is to take advantage of the US in trade [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's tariff comments led to significant market volatility, with US stock indices experiencing declines; the Dow Jones fell by 0.61%, Nasdaq by 1%, and S&P 500 by 0.67% [6] - European markets also reacted negatively, with major indices like the FTSE 100 and DAX dropping over 1% during trading [6] Group 3: Corporate Transactions - TPG Capital is set to acquire 48 Wanda Plaza projects across major Chinese cities, with the transaction recently approved by the State Administration for Market Regulation [12][13] - The specific financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed, but it marks a significant move in the commercial real estate sector in China [13] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation is drafting a compliance guideline for network trading platforms to regulate their fee structures and protect the rights of platform operators [15][16] - The guideline emphasizes fair, legal, and honest charging practices, encourages platforms to reduce burdens on small merchants, and outlines measures for compliance and self-regulation [17][18]

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - London silver is currently trading above $33.54, with an opening price of $33.03 per ounce and a current price of $33.48, reflecting a 1.33% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $33.54, while the lowest was $32.88, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The trading range for platinum metal over the past month has been between $31.65 and $33.70, with recent price movements showing uncertainty as it fluctuates around the 20-period exponential moving average [3] Group 2: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU and US tariff negotiations have resumed but remain fraught with uncertainty, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, while rejecting US demands to eliminate VAT and weaken digital regulations [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key sectors [2] - The EU has initiated public consultations on a list of nearly €100 billion worth of goods in response to US tariffs and plans to file a complaint with the WTO regarding US tariffs on cars and parts [2]

Group 1 - The deadline for tariff negotiations between the US and the EU has been extended to July 9, as requested by the EU, and President Trump has agreed to this request, describing the discussions as "very pleasant" [1] - Following Trump's announcement, US stock index futures and major European stock index futures rose in early trading [1][3] - On May 23, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, claiming that the EU's main purpose is to take advantage of the US in trade [2] Group 2 - The global financial markets experienced volatility due to Trump's tariff comments, with US and European stock markets declining on May 23; the Dow Jones fell by 0.61%, the Nasdaq by 1%, and the S&P 500 by 0.67% [2][3] - European stock indices also saw declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.24%, and major indices in France, Germany, and Italy dropping over 1% [2][3] - Following Trump's statements, US stock index futures surged, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising over 1% on May 26 [3][4]

美国与欧盟的关税谈判期限延长至7月9日。 当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 受到该消息影响，美股指期货、欧股主要股指期货早间走高。 国际金融市场动荡 受到特朗普关税言论影响，上周五（5月23日），全球金融市场动荡，欧美股市普跌。截至当天收盘，美股道指跌0.61%，纳指跌1%，标普500指数跌0.67%；欧股 方面，英国富时100指数跌0.24%，盘中一度跌近2%，法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、意大利富时MIB指数、欧元区斯托克50指数均跌超1%，盘中均跌超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 41603.07c | -256.02 | -0.61% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 18737.21c | -188.52 | -1.00% | | 标普500 | 5802.82c | -39.19 | -0.67% | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 英国富时100 | 8717.97 | -2 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that U.S. Steel and Japan's Nippon Steel are expected to form a partnership that could create 70,000 jobs and bring an investment of $14 billion, as stated by President Trump [1] - Trump's announcement came during the third round of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, indicating that this partnership may become a topic of discussion in the negotiations [1][4] - The U.S. Foreign Investment Committee (CFIUS) has reviewed the acquisition proposal, but there are internal disagreements regarding the recommendation submitted to Trump [3] Group 2 - Both U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel responded positively to Trump's statement, describing it as "bold," although there remains uncertainty about the specifics of the acquisition [3] - The Japanese government is actively gathering information to understand Trump's true intentions regarding the acquisition, as there is confusion within Nippon Steel about the potential for majority control [4] - During the tariff negotiations, Japan is pushing for a ministerial-level agreement before the G7 summit, aiming to resolve issues related to tariffs on automobiles and parts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue high - level oscillations, with a neutral strength - weakness analysis and a price range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There is support on the domestic copper demand side, and the logic of tight copper raw material supply persists. Domestic social inventory is at a historically low level, and spot prices are in a continuous premium state. However, macro - level disturbances still bring uncertainties, such as the impact of US tariff negotiations on investor sentiment [6]. - In trading strategies, for single - side trading, look for phased trading opportunities, such as buying on price pull - backs. For spread trading, close out the term positive spread positions as domestic social inventory increases and spot premiums decline marginally. For internal - external arbitrage, pay attention to whether macro factors bring certainty to overseas copper prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: Volatility in four copper markets continues to decline. COMEX price volatility has dropped to around 20%, and LME copper price volatility has fallen to around 11% [10]. - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of SHFE copper remains stable, with the spread between SHFE contracts 06 - 07 holding steady at 430 yuan/ton. The LME copper spot premium has narrowed, and the COMEX copper C - structure has also contracted [13][14]. - **Position**: Positions in SHFE copper and LME copper have decreased, while those in international copper and COMEX copper have increased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 0.95 million lots to 52.87 million lots [15]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions have decreased. LME commercial short net positions dropped from 61,400 lots on May 9th to 60,800 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions declined from 21,522 lots on May 13th to 21,038 lots on May 20th [21]. - **Spot Premium**: Domestic copper spot premiums have narrowed, while premiums in Europe and Southeast Asia are at high levels. The domestic copper spot premium dropped from a premium of 445 yuan/ton on May 16th to 165 yuan/ton on May 23rd [24][26]. - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventory has decreased, domestic social inventory has increased, bonded area inventory has continuously decreased, COMEX inventory has increased, and LME copper inventory has declined [27][32]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper contract 06 is at a historically high level for the same period, while the LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded but is still at a historically low level [33]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased, but processing fees remain weak, and smelting losses are significant. In April 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 2.9244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.16% and a year - on - year increase of 24.55%. The spot TC for copper concentrate in the week of May 23rd was - 44.28 US dollars/ton, and smelter losses were around 3,769 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports have decreased, and domestic production has declined significantly. In April, recycled copper imports were 204,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%, and domestic recycled copper production was 87,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.50%. The scrap - refined copper price spread has narrowed, and import profitability has increased [40][45]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased, and processing fees have rebounded. In April, blister copper imports were 74,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and processing fees in April showed a marginal rebound [50]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased more than expected, imports have decreased, and attention should be paid to copper import profit and loss. In April, domestic refined copper production was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.27%, and imports were 250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Current import losses have widened, which may continue to limit overseas supplies from entering the domestic market [52][53]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated, and overall they have weakened. In April, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level for the same period in history, and that of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of May 22nd, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined marginally [57]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees are at a neutral level for the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have rebounded. As of May 23rd, the processing fee for copper used in the power industry in East China was 715 yuan/ton, lower than the 995 yuan/ton on May 16th. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,129 yuan/ton, higher than the 5,098 yuan/ton on May 9th [60][63]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. In April, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically high level for the same period, while that of copper tubes was at a low level [64]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has declined, and that of wire and cable has decreased. In April, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral level for the same period in history, and that of copper tubes was at a neutral - to - low level [67]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to April, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 5.0553 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96%, and the apparent consumption was 5.2063 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%. Power grid investment from January to April was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%, at a historically high level [71]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slowed down, while new - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level for the same period. In April, domestic air - conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.91%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.251 million units, a year - on - year increase of 43.79% [72].

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...