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铜:缺乏驱动,价格震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:26
商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 铜:缺乏驱动,价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,140 | 0.35% | 77670 | -0.60% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,440 | -1.67% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 72,311 | -37,865 | 180,490 | -6,084 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 7,610 | 1,376 | 294,000 | -171 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 63,247 | 2,712 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 179,375 | -5,275 | 40.08% | -1 ...
综合晨报:穆迪下调美国信用评级,5月美通胀预期继续回升-20250519
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 00:49
日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级,5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an:k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略(外汇期货(美元指数)) 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级,这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级,对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升,美元短期走弱。 宏观策略(黄金) 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨,在 3200 美金附近运行,俄乌谈判扰动市场, 穆迪下调美国主权评级,对金价构成提振,但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品(豆粕) 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨,钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上,豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期,现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属(锌) 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 (农产品) | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号: | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号: | Z0021468 | | Tel: | 862 ...
中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明,布鲁可5月以来密集推新
China Securities· 2025-05-18 16:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods significantly, which is expected to benefit export-oriented companies with international supply chain advantages [2] - The company Bruker has been actively launching new products since May, enhancing its innovation capabilities and product diversity [2] Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Real Estate and Home Furnishing Industry - New home sales in 33 cities totaled 2.0064 million square meters from May 10 to May 16, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.78% but a month-on-month increase of 30.76% [23] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, new home sales showed varying year-on-year and month-on-month changes, with Beijing experiencing a 4.93% increase year-on-year [37] Chapter 2: Paper Industry - The average price of hardwood pulp was 4236 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [15] Chapter 3: Textile and Apparel Industry - Domestic cotton prices as of May 16 were reported at 14577 CNY per ton, with year-on-year decreases of 9.8% [16] - E-commerce sales for major apparel brands showed varied performance, with Anta down 27.3% year-on-year [16] Chapter 4: Gold and Diamond Industry - COMEX gold closed at 3205.3 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.84% [17] Chapter 5: Export Chain - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with furniture and apparel exports showing declines [18] Chapter 6: Medical Aesthetics - The report highlights the approval of several injectable medical aesthetic products, indicating growth in the sector [20]
深夜!美国财长,最新发声!
券商中国· 2025-05-18 15:11
北京时间18日晚间消息,美国财长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)回应穆迪下调美国信用评级称,他不太相 信穆迪,穆迪评级"落后于指标"。贝森特称,美国GDP增长速度将超过债务增长速度。 关于关税,贝森特表示,会达成很多地区性的协议。贝森特称,美国正将关税讨论集中在18个关键贸易伙伴 上。贝森特还表示,他周六确实与沃尔玛首席执行官麦克米伦进行了交谈,沃尔玛将承担部分关税。 而关于美联储的立场,贝森特表示:"美联储并未断言关税会导致通胀,他们只是说不确定,目前处于观望模 式。" 值得关注的是,近期,随着贸易紧张局势的缓和,美股持续反弹,不过也有华尔街分析师发出警告称,反弹可 能过度。到目前为止,贸易框架还远未达成协议。如果没有具体的贸易解决方案,市场波动可能会再次出现。 美国财长发声 贝森特声称,降级与拜登政府的支出政策有关,该政府曾将其吹捧为对优先事项的投资,包括应对气候变化和 增加医疗保险覆盖面。"我们不是在过去100天里陷入这种状况的。" 贝森特称,这是拜登政府及过去四年继承 的支出所致,"我们决心削减开支并推动经济增长"。 贝森特还透露,他周六与沃尔玛首席执行官道格·麦克米伦(Doug McMi ...
定量策略周观点总第163周:僵局已破,定局仍远-20250518
Huaxin Securities· 2025-05-18 14:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S.-China tariff negotiations are in three phases: the first phase is pessimistic, the second phase shows recovery, and the third phase remains a long-term "game" with a specific order and rhythm that should not be rushed. The progress and reduction of tariffs are better than market expectations, leading to significant inflows into U.S. stocks and improved market sentiment. Currently, comprehensive tariffs from the U.S. on China remain around 50% + 24% pending, suggesting that while the "deadlock has been broken," the "final outcome is still far off" [1] - In the context of major assets recovering to their April 3 highs, A-shares are expected to maintain a period of high-level fluctuations. The report suggests focusing less on indices and more on bottom-up performance opportunities, reducing chasing of rallies and preparing for the market in June and July [1][5] - The report ranks major asset classes for the third phase of tariffs, indicating that among QDII investable assets, German stocks are preferred over Japanese and Hong Kong stocks, followed by U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries. Gold is suggested for short-term trading opportunities around the 3100-3150 range [1][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong rebound due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff agreements, but there is a risk of subsequent pullbacks as most broad indices have filled gaps from early April, limiting upward space. The report emphasizes a strong motivation for funds to realize gains [5][36] - The report highlights that the valuation of the CSI 300 has recovered to within one standard deviation, moving away from extreme undervaluation. It also notes that public fund positions have been adjusted downwards, and the market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations with a focus on structural opportunities in dividend stocks and sectors benefiting from domestic demand [5][36] - In the Hong Kong market, trading sentiment remains low, with net selling from southbound funds. The report indicates that the focus of increased buying is on defensive sectors, while technology stocks have seen significant net selling [39][40] Group 3 - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market is showing medium-level positions, with recent economic data being mixed and not supporting stagflation assumptions. The report suggests maintaining a wave trading strategy and being cautious about profit-taking [32][36] - The report notes that the Japanese stock market has seen a significant pullback, suggesting that investors should gradually take profits as the index approaches previous highs [33] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market is pessimistic, with a shift towards defensive sectors and significant selling in technology stocks. The report also highlights the recent improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, which is favorable for the Hong Kong market [39][44] Group 4 - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend cash flow and small-cap technology stocks in the A-share market, indicating a "barbell" strategy for investment. It emphasizes the importance of sector selection, particularly in banking, electricity, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [36][46] - The report indicates that the small-cap style is currently favored, with short-term market interest rates declining, benefiting small-cap performance. However, it warns of potential trading crowding risks in the CSI 2000 [47] - The report highlights the ongoing demand for gold as a hedge against tariffs and potential economic weakness in the U.S. in June, suggesting that gold remains a good choice for short-term trading opportunities [48]
中美关税缓和,利好金属需求阶段释放
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 06:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].
川普预告两周内祭出新一轮更高关税!比特币跌破10.3万、以太坊失守2500美!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 09:23
川普迫使对手妥协?专家警告市场波动 美国总统川普近期在访问中东国家期间,于阿拉伯联合大公国与企业高管会面时表示,美国将在「未来两到三周内」单方面对多国实施新的关税,且这一 关税税率将更高。 据《金融时报》报导,美国总统川普近期在访问中东国家期间,于阿拉伯联合大公国与企业高管会面时表示,美国将在「未来两到三周内」单方面对多国 实施新的关税,且这一关税税率将更高。他表示,财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)和商务部卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick)将「发送信函,基本上是通知各 国」,以明确各国「在美国做生意需要支付的费用」。 关税谈判进展缓慢 回顾今年4 月初,川普宣布行政命令,计画对所有进口商品征收至少10% 的普遍关税,并对多国实施更高的「对等关税」。不过或许由于关税对全球经济 带来的巨大冲击,随后川普宣布将关税生效时间延后90 天,仅维持10% 的基准关税,为美国与各国提供了谈判空间。 然而,时至今日,关税谈判的进展却显得非常缓慢。根据公开报导,美国目前仅与英国达成了一项有限的贸易协议;与此同时,美国与中国虽然也互砍关 税,美国将对中国商品的关税从145% 降至30%,中国则将对美国商品的关税 ...
近日首次交换谈判文件 美欧关税谈判正式开启
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-17 07:54
Core Points - The EU and the US have officially begun tariff negotiations after a period of stalemate, with discussions covering tariffs, digital trade, and investment opportunities [1] - The EU has rejected the 10% tariff agreement reached between the US and the UK, indicating it will not serve as a template for their negotiations [2][5] - The EU has proposed a retaliatory tariff plan amounting to €95 billion, targeting US products such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [2] Tariff Negotiation Focus and Stance - The US currently maintains a 25% additional tariff on EU steel, aluminum, and automobiles, with a recent announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" measure that raised tariffs on all European imports [3] - The EU has suspended €21 billion in retaliatory tariffs and reduced the "reciprocal tariff" from 20% to 10% until July 8 to facilitate negotiations [3] - EU officials emphasize the need for a calm approach and caution against yielding to US pressure for quick resolutions, with some US tariffs likely to remain, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [3] US Concerns and EU Response - The US has raised concerns regarding the EU's value-added tax, digital services regulations, food standards, and tariffs on certain US goods [4] - The EU has firmly stated it will not accept US demands to eliminate value-added tax or weaken digital regulations and taxation [5]
5月16日电,韩国贸易部长AHN SAYSHE表示,作为关税谈判的一部分,韩国代表团将于下周访问美国进行技术会谈;已经与美国建立了正式的谈判框架。
news flash· 2025-05-16 09:24
智通财经5月16日电,韩国贸易部长AHN SAYSHE表示,作为关税谈判的一部分,韩国代表团将于下周 访问美国进行技术会谈;已经与美国建立了正式的谈判框架。 ...
韩国贸易部长:代表团将于下周访美进行技术会谈,作为关税谈判的一部分。
news flash· 2025-05-16 08:34
韩国贸易部长:代表团将于下周访美进行技术会谈,作为关税谈判的一部分。 ...