Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For nickel, due to the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and supply tension in the nickel ore market, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, considering the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants, potential price pressure on the ore end, and the maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants, it is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 122,500 yuan/ton and closed at 122,170 yuan/ton, a - 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,308 lots, and the open interest was 29,331 lots [1]. - The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened slightly lower and oscillated weakly sideways, while the day session oscillated and declined weakly, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [2]. - The nickel ore market was quiet. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipping was affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and had a strong desire to lower nickel ore prices. In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price for nickel ore in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, and the premium was still under negotiation. Some Indonesian iron plants had the intention to cut production due to high costs [2][3]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 850 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 0 - 2,200 yuan/ton, that of imported nickel was 0 - 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,120 (- 130) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,998 ( + 1362) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the nickel ore supply is tight. New transactions need to be monitored. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 98,902 lots, and the open interest was 92,426 lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract oscillated in a narrow range and consolidated throughout the day, closing with a small doji. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Similar to the nickel market, the nickel ore market was quiet, and some Indonesian iron plants planned to cut production. Some stainless - steel plants had maintenance plans [3]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures oscillated sideways. Most merchants kept their prices unchanged. Downstream demand was weak, and merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply pressure of cold - rolled products remained. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,150 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 385 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Similar to the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, and new transactions need to be monitored. The maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants may support the market. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Gold Market - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 94.4%, and in July, it is 74.9%, indicating a low likelihood of short-term rate cuts, which may pressure gold prices [2] - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US under pressure, while Japan is set to hold the fourth round of tariff talks with the US on the 30th, suggesting a cooling of trade tensions [2] - Analysts warn of further risks of gold price declines due to reduced safe-haven demand and the recent bearish market trend, with key resistance at $3328 and support at $3285 [2] Oil Market - OPEC+ has not yet discussed increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day ahead of their upcoming meetings, which may impact oil prices negatively [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties remain, with Germany lifting restrictions on military aid to Ukraine and Iran preparing for potential actions against Israel, which may limit the downside for oil prices [3] Copper Market - Recent trading shows a decline from high levels, with a warning of further potential drops; support may be found at the 62-day moving average [7] Nikkei 225 Index - The index has shown strong upward movement, closing positively, and has regained its position above the 20-day moving average, indicating potential for further gains [8]

新华财经纽约5月27日电（记者刘亚南） 由于美国宣布延迟向欧洲产品加征关税并与有望与欧盟加快贸 易谈判，纽约股市三大股指27日高开高走，尾盘强势收涨。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日上涨740.58点，收于42343.65点，涨幅为1.78%；标 准普尔500种股票指数上涨118.72点，收于5921.54点，涨幅为2.05%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨461.96点， 收于19199.16点，涨幅为2.47%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块全线上涨。非必需消费品板块和科技板块分别以3.04%和2.55%涨幅 领涨，公用事业板块涨幅最小，为0.77%。 美国总统特朗普25日说，在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后，他同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征 时间从6月1日延至7月9日。 美国联邦住房金融管理局（FHFA）在当日上午公布的数据显示，美国2025年3月份住房价格指数环比下 降0.1%，而市场预期为环比持平，2月份数据则环比上涨0.1%。 达拉斯联储银行当日上午发布的数据显示，该行所辖地区5月份制造业景气指数为-15.3，好于市场预期 的-25和4月份的-35.8。 美联储方面，美国明尼阿波利斯 ...

1. 对达成贸易协议保持乐观——特朗普表示，世界各国都希望与我们达成贸易协议。看到这样，令人感 到非常欣慰。 2. 计划加快与欧盟关税谈判——欧盟委员会发言人："欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩周日与特朗普进行了电 话交谈，他们同意加快贸易谈判进程，并保持密切联系。" 3. 将砍掉哈佛大学30亿资金——美国总统特朗普：考虑从哈佛大学撤回30亿美元的资助资金，将该资金 分发至各地学校。仍在等待哈佛大学提供国际学生名单，哈佛大学在提供名单方面进展非常缓慢。 4. 辟谣筹集30亿投资加密货币——据英国金融时报报道，特朗普旗下媒体公司计划筹集30亿美元用于购 买比特币等加密货币。但随后该公司对此强烈否认，声明称"《金融时报》的愚蠢记者听取了更愚蠢的 消息来源"。 5. 与以总理内塔尼亚胡激烈"争吵"——据以色列媒体报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统特朗普就 如何应对伊朗进行了激烈的电话交谈，这与此前有关两人在阻止德黑兰获得核武器方面达成统一立场的 说法相矛盾。 6. 本周考虑对俄实施新制裁——知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普考虑本周对俄实施制裁，因其对俄罗斯 总统普京持续攻击乌克兰及和平谈判进展缓慢感到不满。新的银行业制裁可能不 ...

特朗普要求仍不明确，欧盟面临两难 特朗普推迟欧盟关税大限，市场暂时松了一口气，但美欧之间的贸易较量仍远未结束，分析师警告投资 者应"系好安全带"，为更多波动做好准备，贸易战威胁依然笼罩在全球市场之上。 据央视新闻此前报道，当地时间25日，美国总统特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日， 他已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。欧盟委员会也证实，欧美贸 易代表定于26日周一（欧洲时间）下午进行通话，并表示特朗普与冯德莱恩的对话为谈判注入了"新动 力"。 这一消息点燃投资者的乐观情绪。欧股周一集体大涨，一举扭转上周五的颓势，欧元兑美元升至一个月 高点，而作为避险资产的黄金价格应声下跌。然而，在分析师们看来，欧美谈判的前景仍不明朗，市场 波动性恐将加剧。 伦敦Zaye Capital Markets首席投资官Naeem Aslam警告称，关税延期虽然引发了"试探性的风险偏好反 弹"，但前景仍不明朗。他在一封电子邮件中表示： 展望未来，欧美贸易舞蹈是一场"高风险的探戈"，7月9日将是下一个引爆点。欧盟正在推动 分阶段降低关税和"相互尊重""谈判，但特朗普的"美国优先"姿态可能会将 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 5 月 26 日 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250224 -20250228）-美国关税引发市场忧虑 风 险资产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20250303 -20250307）-关税政策不确定性仍存 风 险资产走势分化 大类资产运行周报（20250310 -20250314）-美国通胀预期降温 债市偏 弱运行 大类资产运行周报（20250317 -20250321）-美联储按兵不动 美股周度 企稳 大类资产运行周报（20250324 -20250328）-市场避险情绪升温 权益资 产回落 大类资产运行周报（20250331 -20250404）-市场避险情绪升温 权益资 产回落 大类资产运行周报（20250407 -20250411）-关税政策短期趋向缓和 美 股大幅反弹 大类资产运行周报（20250414 -20250418）-美联储按兵不动 美元指数 持续回落 大类资产运行周报（20250421 - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Trump is willing to resume tariff negotiations under pressure from the EU, leading to a drop in spot gold prices and a tense market environment [1] - The ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine situation is highlighted, with Trump publicly condemning Putin and the EU considering new sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is described as being in a state of contention, with various indices showing differing levels of bullish and bearish positions [3][4]

宏观 海外风险偏好回落影响市场表现 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 26 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 4 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，中美谈判乐观预期出 尽，叠加海外风险偏好回落，市场情绪偏弱，整体缩量。政 策方面，1 年期 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3%，5 年期以上 LPR 下调 10bp 至 3.5%，六大行及部分股份行下调人民币存款利率，幅度在 5-25bp 间。LPR 和存款利率同步下调，一方面降低居民企业融 资成本，另一方面降低银行放贷成本抬升放贷意愿，有助于二 季度实体 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average trading volume of 1,173.3 billion CNY, down by 92.9 billion CNY from the previous week[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.88%[9] - The overall market sentiment weakened due to the exhaustion of optimistic expectations from China-US negotiations and a decline in overseas risk appetite[3] Monetary Policy - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3%, and the 5-year LPR was also reduced by 10 basis points to 3.5%[3] - Major banks adjusted deposit rates downwards by 5-25 basis points, which is expected to lower financing costs for residents and enterprises[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to finalize this year's construction project list by the end of June, potentially boosting construction activity in Q2[3] Economic Indicators - April economic data showed overall weakness, with ongoing downward pressure on housing prices, although export expectations have improved[3] - The average funding price increased slightly compared to the previous week, indicating a marginal tightening of liquidity[9] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 1.2 trillion CNY, including a 375 billion CNY increase in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations[9] International Market Trends - US stock markets declined, with the Dow Jones down 2.47%, S&P 500 down 2.61%, and Nasdaq down 2.47%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.51%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.4 basis points to 3.98%[9] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, citing increased government debt and potential GDP growth slowdown due to tariff adjustments[3] Risk Factors - Risks include weaker-than-expected economic fundamentals and slower progress in China-US negotiations[3]

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - US President Trump agreed to extend tariff negotiations with the EU until July 9, describing the talks as "very pleasant" [3] - Following the announcement, US and European stock index futures rose in early trading [4] - Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1, 2025, claiming that the EU's main purpose is to take advantage of the US in trade [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's tariff comments led to significant market volatility, with US stock indices experiencing declines; the Dow Jones fell by 0.61%, Nasdaq by 1%, and S&P 500 by 0.67% [6] - European markets also reacted negatively, with major indices like the FTSE 100 and DAX dropping over 1% during trading [6] Group 3: Corporate Transactions - TPG Capital is set to acquire 48 Wanda Plaza projects across major Chinese cities, with the transaction recently approved by the State Administration for Market Regulation [12][13] - The specific financial details of the transaction have not been disclosed, but it marks a significant move in the commercial real estate sector in China [13] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation is drafting a compliance guideline for network trading platforms to regulate their fee structures and protect the rights of platform operators [15][16] - The guideline emphasizes fair, legal, and honest charging practices, encourages platforms to reduce burdens on small merchants, and outlines measures for compliance and self-regulation [17][18]