交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 3 平。 2、基差: 04月28日，山东现货价3525元/吨，06合约基差为74元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为142.1万吨，环比增加2.01%，厂内库存为90.2万吨，环比减少1.63%，港口稀释沥 青库存为库存为14万吨，环比持平。社会库存持续累库，厂内库存持续去库，港口库存持续持 偏多。 4、盘面: MA20向下，06合约期价收于MA20上方。 中性。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，空翻多。 偏多。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are neutral. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week. The current demand is close to the historical average, but overall domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the cost is generally rising. The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4951 - 5027. [6][9] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. Negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, persistently high inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand. [11] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [6] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.069 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 39.9%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 49.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.620 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 69.44%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average. [6] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2232.95 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [8] - **Basis**: On April 28, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. [9] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 420,201 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 327,641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 92,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.48%. The social inventory was 420,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.71%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, which is bearish. [9] - **Market Trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral. [9] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, production, inventory, and downstream开工率 of different types of PVC, as well as their changes compared to the previous period. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report shows the historical trends of PVC basis, spot prices in East China, and the closing prices of the main contract from January 4, 2022, to April 26, 2025. [18] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread The report presents the historical trends of price spreads (such as 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread) of the PVC main contract from January 2, 2024, to December 30, 2024, and from January 2, 2025, to April 28, 2025. [24] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It shows the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material prices, cost - profit,开工率, weekly inventory, and daily production from 2022 to 2025. [27] - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the historical trends of the mainstream price of Shaanxi calcium carbide, cost - profit in Wuhai,开工率, maintenance loss, and production from 2019 to 2025. [30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It shows the historical trends of liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and monthly production from 2019 to 2025. [32] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows the historical trends of the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, cost - profit,开工率, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of sample enterprises, and flake caustic soda inventory from 2019 to 2025. [34][37] 3.6 PVC Fundamentals - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the historical trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based capacity utilization rates, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises from 2018 to 2025. [38][40] 3.7 PVC Fundamentals - Demand Trend - It shows the historical trends of PVC traders' daily sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, profile开工率, pipe开工率, film开工率, paste resin开工率, paste resin gross profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025. [43][46][48][51] - It also shows the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area from 2018 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year from 2019 to 2025. [54][57] 3.8 PVC Fundamentals - Inventory It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 to 2025. [59] 3.9 PVC Fundamentals - Ethylene Method It shows the historical trends of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025. [61] 3.10 PVC Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports. [64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年4月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年3月PVC产量为206.9132万吨，环比增加10.25%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.63%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.278万吨，环比减少0.88%,乙烯法 企业产量12.662万吨，环比增加9.04%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产 少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.16%，环比增加.069个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为39.9%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为49.06%，环比增加.620个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market continues to rebound. In the industrial chain, stainless steel is weak. After the price of ferronickel drops, the cost line decreases. Exchange warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market, potentially increasing supply. The new energy industry chain data is good, with positive medium - term expectations. In the long - term, the refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, inventory is increasing (negative factor), the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is downward (neutral), and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. Conclusion: Shanghai Nickel 2505 will move in a range [3]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel is decreasing. In the short term, the price of nickel ore remains firm, the supply of Indonesian ore is still short, the price of ferronickel has dropped, and the cost line has also decreased. Stainless steel inventory has slightly increased, and exchange warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts are decreasing (negative factor), and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward. Conclusion: Stainless Steel 2506 will move weakly in a range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 22, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 125,570 (down 360 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,790 (up 45), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,690 (down 100). Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,700 (down 200), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 127,750 (down 300), 1 imported nickel was 125,650 (down 100), and nickel beans were 125,050 (down 100). For stainless steel cold - rolled coils, prices in different regions also showed a downward trend [13]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: As of April 18, the SHFE nickel inventory was 30,332 tons, with futures inventory at 25,091 tons (a decrease of 262 tons and an increase of 627 tons respectively). On April 22, LME nickel inventory was 206,430 (up 1902), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 25,384 (up 64), and the total inventory was 231,814 (up 1966) [15][16]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On April 18, the inventory in Wuxi was 647,200 tons, in Foshan was 338,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 2300 tons). The inventory of the 300 - series was 72.29 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 7600 tons). On April 22, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 175,567 (down 918) [20][21]. 3.3 Price of Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On April 22, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 60.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged), and Ni0.9% was 31.5 dollars/wet ton (unchanged). The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 976 yuan/nickel point (down 7.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [24]. 3.4 Production Cost - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional cost was 13,500, the scrap steel production cost was 13,787, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 17,188 [26]. 3.5 Import Cost - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 128,807 yuan/ton [29].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年4月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年3月PVC产量为206.9132万吨，环比增加10.25%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为77.35%，环比增加0.89%；电石法企业产量33.5757万吨，环比增加0.17%,乙烯法企业产 量11.612万吨，环比增加3.02%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所增加，预计排产少量减 少。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.09%，环比减少0.54个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为39.9%，环比减少0.95个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为48.44%，环比减少 1.87个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the PVC market comprehensively, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The overall view is that the PVC market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bearish bias in the short - term based on the disk and main - position analysis. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range, while continuously monitoring macro - policies and export trends [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In March 2025, PVC production was 2.069132 million tons, a 10.25% month - on - month increase. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.67%, a 4.18% month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 335,200 tons, a 3.86% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 112,720 tons, a 5.13% month - on - month decrease. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled [6]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.64%, a 0.30 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 40.85% (unchanged), 50.31% (a 0.31 - percentage - point increase), 70.22% (a 0.34 - percentage - point decrease), and 78.03% (a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease) respectively, with the paste resin operating rate higher than the historical average, and the others lower [6][9]. - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton, a 7.40% month - on - month increase in losses, and the profit of ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, with losses unchanged month - on - month. Both were lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,202.95 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month increase in profit, also lower than the historical average [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 451,694 tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 340,681 tons, a 1.26% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 111,013 tons, a 2.34% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 450,600 tons, a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 7.8 days, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - **Base - price difference**: On April 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,910 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract base - price difference was - 144 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Disk and Main - position**: The MA20 is downward, and the 09 - contract futures price closed below the MA20. The main position has a net short position, with an increase in short positions [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, while the cost of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to increase, with a slight decrease in production scheduled. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. It is recommended to operate the PVC2509 contract in the 4883 - 4959 range [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), as well as month - to - month changes [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the base - price difference between PVC in East China and the main - contract closing price, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [18]. - **Price and trading volume**: It shows the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from March to April 2025, providing information on market activity and investor sentiment [21]. - **Spread analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025, which is useful for spread trading strategies [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, and their impact on PVC production cost and supply [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, and production of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, as well as the overall PVC production, maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends, showing the supply situation of the PVC market [38][41]. - **Demand trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the relationship between the PVC market and real - estate and infrastructure investment, reflecting the demand situation of the PVC market [44][47][49]. - **Inventory situation**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventories, and in - stock days of production enterprises, showing the inventory level of the PVC market [60]. - **Ethylene method - related**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method, reflecting the international trade situation of the PVC market [62]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and production data of PVC from February 2024 to March 2025, helping to understand the supply - demand balance of the PVC market [65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年4月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年4月份国内沥青总计划排产量为228.9万吨，环比减少9.7万吨， 降幅4.1%，同比增加0.4万吨，增幅0.2%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为35.9583%，环 比增加2.327个百分点，全国样本企业出货18.89万吨，环比减少22.58%,样本企业产量为47.9 万吨，环比增加6.92%,样本企业装置检修量预估为83.6万吨，环比减少1.06%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.6%，环比增加0.07个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为8.3%，环比持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In April 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the sample enterprise output decreased, and the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand side: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand is affected by the off - season and is less than expected and sluggish [7]. - Cost side: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 780.77 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.28%. The loss of asphalt processing increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - Expectation: The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3299 - 3365 [9]. - Factors: Bullish factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the European and American economic recession. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in April 2025 decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate, output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises changed this week. Next week, supply pressure may rise [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand of various types of asphalt and related products is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The processing profit of asphalt and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking changed, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price [8]. - **Expectation**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. - **Factors**: Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and the supply - demand situation is that supply pressure is high and demand recovery is weak [12][13][14] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices, inventories, and production data of different asphalt contracts and related products changed. For example, the prices of most contracts increased, the social inventory increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory increased [17]. - **Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis** - **Basis**: On April 10, the Shandong spot price was 3425 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Spread**: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts, the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil through multiple charts [24][27][30][34]. - **Fundamentals - Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: Analyzed the asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt through charts [41][44]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: Analyzed the supply - side situation from aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume through multiple charts [47][49][52][56][59][62][65]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory situation from aspects such as exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory inventory ratio, and import - export situation through multiple charts [68][73][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: Analyzed the demand - side situation from aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up situation through multiple charts [85][88][91][100][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data from January 2024 to April 2025 [111][112].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-4-8） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：焦煤整体供应持稳。近日原料煤价格逐步企稳，且部分煤种小幅探涨，市场情绪稍有好转， 同时投机需求入市询货，产地出货较前期明显好转，支撑厂内库存不同程度回落，然近期关税问题影响 宏观情绪有所回落，市场仍存观望情绪；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1080，基差103；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存762.7万吨，港口库存362.7万吨，独立焦企库存729.6万吨，总样本库存1855万吨， 较上周增加29.6万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企开工整体良好，但由于原料成本抬升，整体利润收窄，部分焦企开启焦炭首轮提 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 中期弱势 | 螺纹产量继续上升，铁水产量环比继续增加，目前铁水产量已处于同期偏 | | | | 高水平，在钢厂利润仍然不错的背景下，钢厂生产积极性较高。而需求端 | | | | 仍然处于较疲弱的状态，建筑钢材日成交有所回升，但需观察持续性，整 | | | | 体供需趋于宽松的矛盾有增强可能，中期走势偏弱。【3130，3200】 | | 热卷 | 中期偏弱 | 热卷基本面目前体现为供需两旺的状态，库存正常去化。禁止"买单出口" | | | | 或对后期钢材出口产生较大影响，叠加反倾销等预期，基本面有继续宽松 | | | | 的倾向，中期维持偏弱运行。【3300，3380】 | | 铁矿石 | 正套参与 | 本期发货环比增加，到货明显回落，港口小幅增库，钢厂去库，铁矿基本 | | | | 面阶段性好转。关注下游旺季成色，关税落地关键时点，扰动增加，短期 | | | | 矿价震荡偏强运行。操作上 5-9 正套参与，09 合约逢高空配【760,820】 | | 焦炭 | 低位运行 | 焦企出现提涨，提涨幅度不大 ...