1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the economy may continue the weak recovery trend, with the old and new driving forces differentiating more significantly under the overall pressure. Infrastructure and real estate may continue to drag down the economy. The central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose, promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. The probability of making long positions in the bond market is high, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.48 trillion yuan month - on - month to 178.2 trillion yuan. The increase was mainly due to the growth of the custody scale of national bonds and local government bonds, with commercial banks being the main buyers. Generalized funds mainly increased their holdings of financial bonds [2][8]. - The fourth - quarter regular meeting of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and promoting the social comprehensive financing cost to run at a low level. The meeting removed the content related to small and micro - enterprise financing and real - estate market support [19]. - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to November, the total profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The profits of the mining industry decreased by 27.2%, the manufacturing industry increased by 5.0%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 8.4% [23]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total assets of China's financial institutions were 531.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The total assets of the banking, securities, and insurance industries increased by 7.9%, 16.5%, and 15.4% respectively [26]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of December 21, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 11.4% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 9.0% year - on - year. As of December 26, the total box office revenue in the past 7 days increased by 90.1% year - on - year. As of December 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 35.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 49.7% year - on - year [29][32]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of December 21, the container throughput of ports increased by 6.6% year - on - year. As of December 26, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express collection volume increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 1.7% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [35][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rate - As of December 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 25, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points year - on - year [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 26, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 23.0% year - on - year. As of December 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 27.1% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 22.2% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 13.6% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, the average spot price of iron ore increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the average spot price of glass decreased by 20.3% year - on - year [54][58]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 26, most money - market interest rates showed a downward trend. Most government bond yields also decreased. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.29%, 1.59%, 1.84%, and 2.22% respectively, down 7.0BP, 0.8BP, up 0.8BP, and down 0.3BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.79%, 1.98%, and 2.39% respectively, down 6.0BP, 0.6BP, up 1.1BP, and down 0.4BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.76%, and 2.04% respectively, down 5.2BP, 1.9BP, and 0.5BP respectively compared with December 19. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA+ inter - bank certificates of deposit increased to varying degrees. As of December 23, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.18%, 2.04%, 4.51%, and 2.96% respectively, up 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and down 2BP respectively compared with December 19. On December 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.04 and 7.01 respectively, down 192 and 325 pips respectively compared with December 19 [61][65][70]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, and a 10BP cut may occur in the first quarter. Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [75][78].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant weakness on December 29, driven by expectations of supply pressure under a proactive fiscal policy, leading to a decline in government bond futures and an increase in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.91% to 111.82, the 10-year main contract down 0.28% to 107.975, and the 5-year main contract down 0.18% to 105.84 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.65 basis points to 2.255%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.45 basis points to 1.86% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 4,823 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 4,150 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 1.0 basis point to 1.248%, while the 7-day rate rose by 11.0 basis points to 1.558% [6]. Fiscal Policy Insights - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [8]. - Key tasks for 2026 include boosting domestic demand, increasing investment in new productive forces, and enhancing basic social safety nets [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state in the first quarter, with a neutral monetary policy expected and potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts [9]. - CITIC Securities highlighted increased volatility in long-term bond yields and suggested that despite pressures, long-term bonds still offer relative value for allocation [9].

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（12月19日）央行净投放呵护流动性，资金面延续宽松，当日央行净投放357亿元。本周一银行 间流动性延续宽松，主要资金价格徘徊低位，当日央行净回笼1836亿元。本周二银行间流动性维持宽松 态势，隔夜资金价格持稳，当日央行净回笼760亿元。本周三银行间流动性宽松态势更甚，主要回购利 率进一步小幅走低，不过非银资金价格有所抬升，当日央行净回笼208亿元。本周四银行间流动性维持 宽松，隔夜资金价格徘徊低位，跨月因素推动下DR007加权有所抬升，当日央行投放888亿元。12月15 日央行还进行了4000亿元1年期MLF操作，本月有3000亿元MLF到期，净投放1000亿元。本周四（12月 25日）相较于上周五，DR001下行1bp收于1.26%，DR007上行4bp收于 1.48%。 海外方面，欧洲央行执行理事会成员Isabel Schnabel表示，她预计一段时间内不会加息。Schnabel近期发 表的言论促使投资者加大对明年加息概率的押注，她对此表示，自己并没有说利率应当上调。"目前来 看，在可预见的将来，预计不会加息，"她在周一发布的一则FAZ播客中表示。"除非 ...

摘要今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4471美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4514.76美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%，最高上探至4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4471.99美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周一(12月29日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4471美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4514.76 美元/盎司，跌幅0.39%，最高上探至4548.92美元/盎司，最低触及4471.99美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 市场将关注稍晚公布的美国11月成屋签约销售数据，但在当前流动性偏低的背景下，其对行情的指引作 用或较为有限。货币政策方面，美联储12月会议宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%—3.75%， 2025年全年累计降息75个基点。 鉴于劳动力市场逐步降温、通胀压力缓解，市场普遍预期美联储2026年仍可能至少降息两次，这将对美 元形成中期压制。利率定价方面，CME FedWatch工具显示，1月会议降息概率约18.3%，短期内政策基 调仍偏观望。 此外，特朗普近期称希望下任美联储主席在市场表现良好时继续维 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% within the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)," showcasing the achievements of financial work in 2024, emphasizing precise counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual promotion of support for the real economy and risk mitigation, confirming that financial risks are generally controllable [2][8]. - The Financial Regulatory Authority issued the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Digital Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries," which outlines 33 tasks aimed at promoting digital transformation and enhancing financial service quality and competitiveness [2][9]. - The PBOC's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth-quarter meeting for 2025, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance for 2026, with a shift in focus from "promoting a decline in social financing costs" to "maintaining low social financing costs," indicating a strategic adjustment in financing cost control [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Stability Report - The report indicates steady growth in the banking sector's asset-liability scale and an optimized credit structure, with a focus on supporting major strategies and weak links in the economy [8]. - The insurance sector shows stable operations, with increased insurance density and depth, and a decrease in the surrender rate, indicating robust risk compensation capabilities [8]. - The banking sector's capital adequacy remains stable, with ongoing reforms and improvements in risk management and asset quality [8]. Digital Finance Development Plan - The plan emphasizes the importance of top-level design for digital finance, aiming for significant progress in digital transformation over the next five years [9]. - It includes tasks for enhancing digital financial governance, supporting technological innovation, and improving financial service quality in key areas such as technology, green finance, and inclusive finance [9]. Monetary Policy Committee Meeting - The meeting highlighted the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on counter-cyclical adjustments and the integration of various monetary policy tools to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [10]. - It also stressed the importance of large banks in serving the real economy and the need for small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities [10]. Industry Data - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of -1.01%, +1.58%, +2.97%, and +2.71% respectively, with the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.95% [11]. - Weekly average trading volume for stock funds reached 24.12 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% increase from the previous week [20][24].

股指关注阻力位，债市或 震荡运行 2025-12-29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 01 国债策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、长江期货 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约涨0.36%报112.960元，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.300元，5年期 主力合约涨0.05%报106.050元，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.548元。 p 核心观点：当前债市缺乏显著的利好或利空因素，走势主要由机构行为主导。考虑到前几个交易日多数交易 盘已陆续平仓，年末最后几个交易日若无突发情况，市场或将维持平淡态势。预计本周及元旦后，市场焦点 预计将集中于央行国债买卖规模会否进一步扩大，以及年初货币政策的具体实施节奏。短期来看，若长短端 收益率均陷入横盘整理，需警惕收益率再度向上试探11月以来区间上沿的可能。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡偏强运行。 p 策略展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain a "bullish stock + non-bearish bond" pattern, with overall low volatility and certain investment value, despite lacking trend opportunities [2][6][7]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - Long-term interest rates are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with potential upward risks due to supply pressures and inflation expectations [8][12]. - The central economic work conference in December indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately loose, benefiting short-term assets [12]. - The bond market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, convertible bonds, and Chinese dim sum bonds [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment opportunities for 2026 include: 1. Medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, which serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios [12]. 2. Structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, which exhibit strong fundamental support [13]. 3. Chinese dim sum bonds, benefiting from potential capital gains and currency appreciation [12][15]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 experienced a bearish trend, correcting from previous overpricing due to premature interest rate cut expectations [4][5]. - Factors such as the central bank's restrained liquidity release and unexpected policy changes contributed to the market's volatility [5][6]. - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 aligned with initial expectations, although the degree of volatility and credit bond differentiation was greater than anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Returns - In a low-interest environment, strategies to enhance fixed-income returns include active participation in wave trading and refining trading strategies [16][17]. - Utilizing various derivative tools to amplify capital gains while managing overall portfolio risk is recommended [17][19]. - Emphasis on multi-asset allocation and strategy optimization is crucial, particularly in convertible bonds and REITs [16][19].

2025年几近收官，高估"劳动力供给的走弱程度"和高估"关税传导通胀水平"成为联储今年的两大"误 判"，本质是对美国"K型经济"以及AI冲击的认知仍不够清晰。当然，不仅仅是联储，各类市场预测的 方差与最终偏差也极大。 客观上的"误判"实际上也是主观认知重构的过程，随之而来的"数据依赖综合征"越发明显，无论是联 储还是市场总是期待用下一份"非农"和CPI来修正观点——最重要的永远是"下一个数据"，经验论越发 失效。 美国经济"增长的盛夏"与"就业的寒冬"共存。尤其是中小企业的压力越发增加，不同收入水平人群消 费的日渐分化："风平浪静"的宏观数据背后是"波谲云诡"的微观表现。 在这种"无史可依"的经济结构分化中，2025年的联储做的并不算差，扛住了特朗普的抨击，保住了美 股的繁荣，维护了货币市场流动性的相对平顺。 高估劳动力供给的走弱程度和高估关税传导的通胀水平，成为联储今年的两大"误判"。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 但"就业"和"通胀"两个关键目标的误判依然产生了深远影响——2026年在更多"结构性变化"的背景 下，可能看到联储更多的"误判"，或者说，更多的"主观认知更新"，进而不可避免带来更多货币政策 ...

周一，美元兑日元汇价呈现明显的回调态势，在前一交易日温和上涨的基础上逐步回吐涨幅，整体围绕156.20点位附近展开震荡走低行情。 这些积极信号与政策收紧倾向形成共振，不仅大幅提升了市场对日本央行在2026年前后持续收紧货币政策的预期，还直接推动日本国债收益率上行，同时有 效降低了政策突然转向可能引发的市场波动风险，多重因素共同构筑了日元走强的内在动力。 在日元获得支撑的同时，美元自身走势也面临显著的中期压力，进一步加剧了美元兑日元的回调态势。当前市场核心预期仍聚焦于美联储的政策宽松路径， 普遍认为美联储在2026年大概率将进一步实施降息操作，这一预期直接削弱了美元的中期吸引力。 日本央行最新披露的12月货币政策会议纪要，释放出明确的政策收紧倾向信号，显著改变了市场对其政策路径的原有预判。 对于短期市场而言，即将在周二公布的美联储12月货币政策会议纪要成为关键风向标，交易员正通过这份纪要研判美联储决策层内部对未来政策路径的分歧 程度，进而调整对美元的持仓策略。 会议纪要显示，多位委员在讨论中达成共识，认为当前应秉持稳步加息的政策方向，核心目的在于规避货币政策与通胀走势、经济基本面变化出现背离。 部分委员明确指出 ...