Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading day, with the T2603 contract down 0.02% and the open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields at home and abroad also fluctuated differently. Amid various macro - news and market conditions, Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day saw a general decline in Treasury bond futures prices, such as the T2603 contract down 0.02%. The open interest of some contracts decreased, like T2603 with a reduction of 8950, while others increased, like TS2606 with an increase of 959. Trading volumes varied across contracts [2] - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with SHIBOR7 - day rate down 1.5bp, DR007 rate up 0.43bp, and GC007 rate down 2bp [2] - **Domestic Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields at home showed mixed changes. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield rose 0.24bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 38.41bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.9bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 4, the central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, and 3775 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3025 billion yuan [3] - **International Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue. He also had a video meeting with Russian President Putin, stating that China and Russia should promote fairness and justice in the international community [3] - **Financial Policy Meetings**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 credit market work conference, requiring enhanced financial services for key areas. The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank held a financial situation analysis meeting, putting forward requirements for credit growth, policy implementation, etc [3] - **US Financial News**: US President Trump said that a rate cut was almost certain. The US Treasury announced its quarterly refinancing plan, maintaining the issuance scale of medium - and long - term bonds, with a total of 125 billion US dollars of bonds to be issued this quarter [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: Most money - market interest rates in China rose, and US Treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield in China rose to 1.808%, and the central bank's net withdrawal in the open - market reverse repurchase was 3025 billion yuan [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Analysis**: The central bank's net withdrawal of funds, Shibor short - term varieties mostly rising, and the relatively stable pre - Spring Festival capital situation. The Fed's pause in rate cuts, the market's expectation of a "rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction parallel" policy in the US, and the rise of the US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index. In China, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline in January, and industrial enterprise profits and fixed - asset investment had different performance. The government's fiscal and monetary policies contributed to the stabilization of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

【环球网报道 记者 李梓瑜】据美国全国广播公司（NBC）报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间4日接受该 媒体独家专访时表示，若候任美联储主席凯文·沃什不支持降息，就不会得到这份工作。 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事沃什出任下一任美联储主席。据英国《金融时报》报道，沃什的提名 将先由参议院银行委员会审议，之后诉诸参议院全院表决。2月3日，美国国会参议院银行委员会的全体 11名民主党人致信该委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特，要求推迟沃什的全部提名程序，直至针对现任主席鲍威 尔等美联储理事的刑事调查终止。多家媒体称，特朗普政府调查鲍威尔等人恐适得其反。《金融时报》 称，沃什本人属"主流"美联储主席候选人，与国会和华尔街均关系良好，这样的人选提名在参议院过关 受阻"凸显白宫对美联储和鲍威尔的攻击恐遭反噬"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理事职位任期将持续至2028年1月底。特 朗普在其首个总统任期里就曾多次批评鲍威尔的货币政策。2025年1月再次出任美国总统后，特朗普频 繁批评鲍威尔在降息方面行动迟缓，加剧了联邦政府债务负担，并多次威胁解除其美联储主席职务。 报道称，特朗普在采访中表示，他对很快就能降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in the Philippines accelerated for the second consecutive month in January, remaining within the central bank's target range, which allows for potential monetary policy easing [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January increased by 2% year-on-year, surpassing the median forecast of 1.8% and the previous month's level [1] - Despite the increase, the inflation rate is still at the lower end of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target range of 2% to 4% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - BSP Governor Eli Remolona indicated readiness to adjust policy rates to stimulate demand following weaker-than-expected economic data in the fourth quarter [1] - The fourth quarter GDP growth rate slowed to 3%, marking the lowest growth rate in 14 years, excluding the pandemic period, due to weakened investment and spending [1]

美国总统特朗普公开表示，如果其美联储主席提名人选沃什表达加息意愿，他根本不会获得提名。这一 表态再次引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，并可能成为沃什参议院确认听证会上的焦点议题。 沃什的提名确认过程预计将面临严格审查，美联储独立性料将成为核心议题。 共和党参议员Thom Tillis是参议院银行委员会成员，他已承诺将阻止特朗普对美联储的所有提名人选， 直到司法部结束对美联储装修项目的调查。 即将离任的美联储主席鲍威尔此前称这项调查是对美联储独立决定货币政策能力的变相攻击。特朗普政 府官员否认这一意图，但总统本人已对鲍威尔发起长达数月的降息施压行动。 沃什的立场转变 特朗普周三在接受NBC新闻采访时明确指出，"如果他进来说'我想加息'，他就不会得到这份工作，不 会。"特朗普强调，美联储降息"毫无疑问"，因为"我们的利率太高了"，而现在"我们又是一个富裕的 国家了"。 当被问及沃什是否理解特朗普希望他降低基准利率时，特朗普回应称："我认为他理解，但我认为他本 来也想这么做。"这番言论直接揭示了白宫对货币政策走向的明确预期。 特朗普的公开施压可能加剧市场对美联储政策独立性的质疑，并为即将到来的人事确认程序增添变数。 确 ...

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

智通财经获悉，美国总统特朗普日前表示，若潜在提名人选凯文·沃什曾表态希望加息，他将不会获得 美联储主席的提名。 "如果他进来就说'我想加息'，那他绝对得不到这份工作，不可能。"特朗普在周三接受采访时如此表 态。 即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前指责该项调查是对央行货币政策独立决策能力的"隐晦攻 击"。特朗普政府官员虽否认此意图，但总统本人近月来持续向鲍威尔施加降息压力。 值得注意的是，曾以"通胀鹰派"形象著称的前美联储理事沃什，近期已多次公开表态支持降息。此番提 名博弈不仅折射出白宫对货币政策的强势干预，也使美联储百年来的独立性传统面临严峻考验。有分析 人士指出，沃什若获提名，其亟需施展备受推崇的斡旋能力，在政治压力与央行专业判断之间寻求平 衡。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特周三在国会听证会上表示，总统有权对美联储的决策过程施加影响， 尽管如此，贝森特同时强调，他相信美联储应保持货币政策独立性，这种独立性建立在美国公众信任之 上，并应接受问责。 特朗普称美联储降息"几乎没有悬念"，理由是当前利率"处于过高水平"，并称美国"如今已重归富裕国 家行列"。 当被问及沃什是否理解其希望降低基准利率的意图时，特朗普回 ...

即将离任的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔此前指责该项调查是对央行货币政策独立决策能力的"隐晦攻 击"。特朗普政府官员虽否认此意图，但总统本人近月来持续向鲍威尔施加降息压力。 值得注意的是，曾以"通胀鹰派"形象著称的前美联储理事沃什，近期已多次公开表态支持降息。此番提 名博弈不仅折射出白宫对货币政策的强势干预，也使美联储百年来的独立性传统面临严峻考验。有分析 人士指出，沃什若获提名，其亟需施展备受推崇的斡旋能力，在政治压力与央行专业判断之间寻求平 衡。 此外，美国财政部长贝森特周三在国会听证会上表示，总统有权对美联储的决策过程施加影响， 贝森特当天出席美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会。密苏里州民主党众议员Emanuel Cleaver询问他，是 否会建议总统"在言辞和政治层面干预"美联储的决策。贝森特回应称："这是他的权利……也是在座每 个人的权利。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普日前表示，若潜在提名人选凯文·沃什曾表态希望加息，他将不会 获得美联储主席的提名。 "如果他进来就说'我想加息'，那他绝对得不到这份工作，不可能。"特朗普在周三接受采访时如此表 态。 特朗普称美联储降息"几乎没有悬念"，理由是当前利率" ...

美联储库克：货币政策不应用于管理政府债务。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a significant reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan to address mid-term liquidity pressures ahead of the Spring Festival, signaling a proactive approach to maintain liquidity stability in the banking system [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On February 4, the PBOC executed an 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan [1]. - The total mid-term liquidity maturing in February amounts to 1.5 trillion yuan, with 700 billion yuan from 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan from 6-month reverse repos [1]. - The operation is seen as a forward-looking hedge against potential mid-term liquidity pressures, especially with the upcoming maturity of 700 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos [1][3]. Group 2: Market Stability and Policy Tools - The 3-month reverse repo is designed to stabilize the bank's liability structure and the operation of money market interest rates, particularly during the high-demand period around the Spring Festival [2]. - The PBOC's open market operations are crucial for monetary policy adjustment and liquidity management, with a total net injection of 6 trillion yuan in 2025, including 3.8 trillion yuan from reverse repos [2]. - The PBOC is enhancing its monetary policy toolkit, allowing for better coordination of various tools to manage liquidity and improve transparency in policy operations [2]. Group 3: Liquidity Demand and Future Outlook - February is expected to see concentrated bank credit issuance, with increased liquidity demand due to cash withdrawal factors before the Spring Festival [3]. - The PBOC's strategy of increasing the 3-month reverse repo is aimed at preemptively addressing mid-term funding gaps, reducing the need for frequent adjustments to short-term tools [3]. - The urgency for further reductions in reserve requirements or interest rates is seen to be decreasing, with a preference for using MLF and reverse repos in a coordinated manner to stabilize mid-term liquidity supply [3].

美联储库克：货币政策无法解决消费者情绪低迷的问题。 来源：滚动播报 ...