Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims reached 240K last week, the highest in a month and 10K above consensus estimates, indicating potential softening in the labor market [3] - Continuing Claims hit 1.919 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting an increase in long-term jobless claims [4] - Q1 2025 GDP was revised to -0.2%, improving from the first read and better than the expected -0.4%, with consumption decreasing from +1.8% to +1.2% [5] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The Pricing Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reached +3.7%, in line with expectations, while the Core Pricing Index was +3.4%, the highest since Q1 2024 [6] Company Earnings Reports - Best Buy (BBY) reported Q1 earnings of $1.15 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.09, with revenues of $8.77 billion, but cut guidance due to tariff conditions, leading to a -3% pre-market sell-off [7] - Kohl's (KSS) reported a loss of -$0.13 per share, better than the expected -$0.22, with revenues of $3.23 billion surpassing estimates by +0.88%, and maintained forward guidance, resulting in a +7% pre-market increase [8]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction at the beginning of the year, with the first quarter GDP annualized rate revised to -0.2%, slightly better than the initial estimate of -0.3% [1] - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, increased by only 1.2%, down from the initial estimate of 1.8%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly two years [1][2] - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, slightly worse than initial predictions [1] Consumer Spending and Business Investment - The downward revision in consumer spending was primarily due to weakened demand for automobiles and reduced spending on services, including healthcare and insurance [4] - Business investment showed stronger performance, increasing by 10.3%, up from a prior estimate of 9.8% [2] Trade and Tariff Impact - A surge in imports, driven by businesses trying to stock up before tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contributed to the economic slowdown [2] - The White House has since rescinded or delayed some punitive tariffs, which has alleviated some economic concerns, although tariff rates remain higher than pre-Trump levels [2] Future Economic Outlook - Economists expect a rebound in GDP for the second quarter due to reduced tariffs and the accumulation of imported goods into larger inventories, which may stimulate economic growth [3] - The overall demand in the economy was weaker than initially anticipated, with final sales to domestic private buyers growing by only 2.5%, the lowest level in nearly two years [3]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Group 1 - The key economic events and data to watch on May 29, 2025, include speeches from the Bank of England Governor Bailey and Federal Reserve officials, as well as various economic indicators from the US and Canada [1] - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the May monetary policy meeting at 02:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory data will be published at 04:30, followed by Canada's current account data and US initial jobless claims at 20:30 [1] - The US will also release the revised annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1 at 20:30, along with the April pending home sales index at 22:00 [1] - EIA natural gas and crude oil inventory data will be available at 22:30 and midnight respectively, including strategic petroleum reserve data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 "New First-tier Cities Charm Ranking," highlighting the top cities and the criteria used for ranking, emphasizing the importance of commercial development and living conditions over GDP alone [1][3][12]. Ranking Overview - The top four cities remain Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, classified as first-tier cities. The new first-tier cities ranked from 5th to 19th include Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hefei, Qingdao, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Foshan [1]. - Wuxi has dropped to 21st place, while Foshan has risen to 15th place among new first-tier cities [1]. Criticism of the Ranking - Critics argue that the ranking does not accurately reflect economic totality (GDP) or development level (per capita GDP) [2][3]. - The debate around city rankings often involves personal biases, with individuals favoring their hometowns or chosen cities [2]. Understanding the Ranking Criteria - The ranking focuses more on the "city" aspect, particularly the central urban area, rather than the entire city including suburban areas [3][4]. - Cities with larger central urban areas tend to rank higher, as seen with Chengdu, which has a significant population in its central districts [4]. Economic and Demographic Insights - The article compares the GDP and retail sales growth of "high-ranking" and "low-ranking" cities from 2015 to 2024, noting that "high-ranking cities" generally show stronger growth in both GDP and retail sales [9][10]. - The population growth in "high-ranking cities" is significantly higher than in "low-ranking cities," indicating a trend of urban migration towards more vibrant economic centers [10][11]. Conclusion on Investment Potential - The article suggests that the "New First-tier Cities" ranking serves as a leading indicator for future economic performance, with cities that attract more residents likely to perform better in the long run [12]. - For individuals considering relocation or investment, the ranking provides valuable insights into urban dynamics and economic opportunities [12].

Group 1 - The 2025 "New First-tier Cities Charm Ranking" lists Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou as first-tier cities, while Chengdu, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Suzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Tianjin, Hefei, Qingdao, Dongguan, Ningbo, and Foshan are classified as new first-tier cities [1] - Wuxi has dropped to 21st place among all cities, ranking second among second-tier cities, while Foshan has risen to 15th place among new first-tier cities [4] - The ranking has sparked debates online, with critics arguing that it does not accurately reflect economic total (GDP) or the level of development (per capita GDP) of cities [5][6] Group 2 - The "New First-tier Cities" ranking emphasizes the importance of commercial consumption and living conditions over GDP, suggesting that cities with vibrant commercial sectors rank higher [9][10] - The ranking focuses on the central urban areas of cities, which can lead to discrepancies between GDP rankings and the new first-tier cities ranking [8][11] - The data indicators used in the ranking reflect a value system that prioritizes commercial vitality and livability, indicating that cities with strong third industries and attractive living conditions tend to perform better [17][29] Group 3 - A comparison of 18 cities from 2015 to 2024 shows that "high-ranking cities" have outperformed "low-ranking cities" in terms of retail sales, GDP growth, and population increase [19][20][21] - "High-ranking cities" have seen a significant increase in average housing prices compared to "low-ranking cities," indicating stronger market performance [22][23] - The overall performance of "high-ranking cities" in attracting population, capital, and housing prices has been notably superior to that of "low-ranking cities" [24][25] Group 4 - The "New First-tier Cities" ranking serves as a leading indicator, suggesting that cities with higher rankings are more capable of attracting residents and investments [26][28] - The ranking reflects a trend where cities with strong central urban areas and developed third industries have consistently performed better over the years [29]

Group 1 - The 39th OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial meeting is scheduled to take place, which may influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [1] - The U.S. Vice President will deliver a speech at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference, potentially impacting cryptocurrency market sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's financial research institute meeting, which could provide insights into U.S. monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Australia's April weighted CPI year-on-year data will be released, which is crucial for assessing inflation trends in the region [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, impacting the New Zealand dollar and economic outlook [1] - The final GDP year-on-year figure for France's first quarter will be published, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] Group 3 - Germany's adjusted unemployment figures for May will be released, including both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate, which are key indicators of labor market health [1] - The Swiss ZEW investor confidence index for May will be announced, reflecting investor sentiment and expectations for the Swiss economy [1] - The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index for May will be published, offering insights into the manufacturing sector's performance in the U.S. [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its May monetary policy meeting, which may provide clues about future interest rate decisions [1] - The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 23 will be released, which is significant for understanding oil supply trends in the U.S. [1]

Summary of Deutsche Bank Economic Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US Economic Outlook** and the impact of **trade tensions** on economic indicators such as consumer spending and inflation [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending and Inflation**: - Personal income increased by **0.4%** compared to an expected **0.5%** increase, while consumption rose by **0.2%** against a forecast of **0.7%** [1]. - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to show a softer print of **0.12%**, influenced by volatile categories like airfares and portfolio management, leading to a year-over-year inflation rate of **2.6%** [1]. 2. **Durable Goods Orders**: - A significant decline in durable goods orders of **8.1%** was noted, primarily due to a drop in Boeing aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders fell by **0.2%** [2]. - Companies are pausing capital expenditure plans amid tariff uncertainties, which is reflected in the soft core orders [2]. 3. **Trade Balance and Tariffs**: - The advance goods trade balance showed a deficit of **$155 billion**, slightly better than the previous **$162 billion** [2]. - The report suggests that tariffs may narrow the trade deficit, as foreign retaliation could be muted, and the Trump tariffs have led to dollar depreciation [5]. 4. **Consumer Confidence**: - Consumer confidence is expected to remain low, with a forecast of **85.0**, close to pandemic lows. Attention will be on consumer views regarding the labor market [6]. 5. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant policy changes in the near term, with a consensus among officials that current policy is appropriate [7]. - The minutes from the May FOMC meeting are anticipated to reflect a broader consensus on the Fed's wait-and-see approach amidst trade uncertainties [7]. 6. **Market Volatility**: - The report indicates that ongoing trade negotiations and tariff escalations are likely to increase volatility in risk assets and corporate capital commitments [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential long-term economic costs of tariffs, including increased prices and reduced output, which may persist for years [5]. - There is a noted increase in longer-term inflation expectations despite a recent cooling in energy prices, indicating underlying inflationary pressures [6]. - The upcoming data releases are expected to shift focus back to trade, with significant implications for market sentiment and economic forecasts [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank Economic Notes, highlighting the interplay between trade policies, consumer behavior, and macroeconomic indicators.

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

罗马尼亚当选总统达恩：2025年预算赤字的实际目标是占GDP的7.5%。 ...