马克·罗恩近日在一场金融服务会议上公开阐述了他的观点。他表示，基于阿波罗内部的评估，美联储并没有降息的必要性。他指出，现有经济数据中并未 传递出要求降息的明确信号。不过他同时表示，能够理解美联储在近期会议上作出降息决定的考量。 从更宏观的长期视角出发，罗恩认为美国市场正呈现出一种通胀性的趋势。他分析称，各国普遍存在大规模举债的行为。同时，通过移民改善对劳动力结构 进行的调整，以及基于合理理由实施的关税等贸易措施，都在一定程度上影响着商品流动。这些因素通常都具有推高通胀的潜在效果。罗恩特别强调，大规 模的债务积累本身就可能诱发通货膨胀，货币下行同样倾向于带来通胀压力。 此前，阿波罗全球资本的首席经济学家托斯滕·斯洛克也曾发布报告提出警告。该报告预计美国经济可能在明年重现增长动力，而通胀风险随之抬头的可能 性也值得警惕。在这一预期背景下，阿波罗的经济学家团队认为美联储应避免过于激进的降息节奏。斯洛克特别提示，未来可能出现的监管层人事变动，或 会出于非经济因素考虑而推动利率下行，这或将导致通胀进一步加剧，从而给市场稳定性带来额外的风险。 根据美联储最新发布的点阵图预测，多数官员仍预计未来一年存在降息空间，这与之前的 ...

2025年首套房买家借贷激增三分之一 随着融资渠道的放松和英国人争相登上住房阶梯，首套房买家的借款同比增长了近三分之一。 根据第一太平戴维斯Savills的分析，在截至2025年9月的一年里，贷款机构向39万位首套房买家发放了 创纪录的828亿英镑房贷，同比增长30%。 与此同时，截至9月的一年里，住房市场的总价值增长了14%，达到4170亿英镑。 伦敦地铁票价暴涨：1区票价上涨高达7.1% 第一太平戴维斯（Savills）住宅研究主管卢西安·库克（Lucian Cook）表示，房贷的增加部分反映了人 们急于在今年早些时候印花税假期结束前完成交易。 3月31日，首套房买家的零印花税门槛目前为42.5万英镑，将恢复到之前的30万英镑水平。 这导致年初房地产交易大幅增加，贷款申请增加了约130%。 同样，今年的一系列的政策变化，包括金融行为监管局对贷款监管解释的修订指南，为银行向申请人提 供了更多贷款的空间。 库克说："由于借贷成本降低、实际房价降低和贷款债务更容易获得，现在比过去三年的任何时候都更 容易获得住房。" 由于利率进一步下降，贷款利率将下降，预计这一势头将持续到2026年。 同样，可供出租的房产短缺， ...

法国国家统计和经济研究所（INSEE）12日公布的最终数据显示，11月法国消费者价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨0.9%，涨幅与上月持平。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 法国国家统计和经济研究所在报告中表示，通胀趋于稳定主要得益于服务价格增速放缓，同比涨幅从10 月的2.4%降至2.2%，且工业制成品价格跌幅小幅扩大，在一定程度上抵消了服务价格的上涨；另外， 能源价格同比跌幅收窄，从10月的5.6%降至4.6%，以及食品价格小幅上涨，两者亦对通胀保持稳定起 到一定支撑作用。 资讯编辑：刘佳惠 021-26093916 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 数据还显示，烟草价格同比增速与上月持平，为4.1%。 ...

A quarterly survey of major Japanese manufacturers released Monday shows business sentiment improving to its best level in four years, even after President Trump raised tariffs on goods from the U.S. ally to a baseline level of 15%. The Bank of Japan is bound to take the results of its quarterly “tankan” survey into account during a policy meeting this week, when it is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate. Analysts said the stronger results may sway the BOJ toward pressing ahead with a 0.25 perce ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on December 10, marking the third cut since 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are increasing, with three members voting against the rate cut [1] - There are concerns regarding the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, which could lead to more aggressive rate cuts [2][4] Group 2 - President Trump criticized the Fed's cautious approach, stating that the rate cut should have been larger, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction instead [2][5] - Despite three rate cuts this year, the Fed has not met Trump's expectations, leading to ongoing public criticism of Fed Chair Powell [5][6] - The Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts is influenced by the need to manage inflation and the global impact of U.S. monetary policy [5]

今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于62.53一线上方，今日开盘于61.79美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报62.59美元/盎司，上涨0.94%，最高触及62.75美元/盎司，最低下探61.72美元/盎 司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 英国金融时报分析指出，周二公布的美国非农就业报告将包含10月和11月的数据，最终为政策制定者和 投资者提供更完整的美国劳动力市场图景，结束数月来的部分盲飞状态。 美联储在本周分歧严重的会议后将利率降至三年低点，数位官员持异议，争论焦点在于应优先应对高通 胀还是疲软的就业市场。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银一直强调，在多头趋势中看涨不猜顶，上周实际最高在64.6附近，完成了上涨大部分空间，目 前收盘在62之上，注意周四，周五后行情变化，交易尽量以做多为主。周内强势支持点在60附近。今日 白银下方关注61.40美元或60.40美元支撑，上方关注63.00美元或63.80美元阻力。 花旗集团经济学家指出，即将公布的最新就业报告可能释放更多矛盾信号。该行预计10月就业岗位减少 约4.5万个，但11月将增加8万个。 花旗经济学家表示， ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have shown remarkable performance this year, with gold prices increasing by 60% and silver prices more than doubling [1] - Institutions are optimistic about gold for the upcoming year, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4,900 per ounce [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, including interest rate cuts and the resumption of Treasury bond purchases, are seen as positive for the gold market [1] Group 2 - There is a strong demand for gold in the market, with central banks, pension funds, and investment funds allocating capital to gold, a trend expected to continue [3] - Some analysts express caution, suggesting that the gold bull market may be nearing its end, citing a correlation between gold and U.S. stock indices as a sign of speculative behavior and potential bubble risks [3]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a point, marking its third consecutive rate cut of the year [2] - Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) are designed to keep benefits in line with inflation and are automatically eligible each year [3][4] - The upcoming 2.8% COLA for Social Security recipients in 2026 is unaffected by the Fed's recent rate cuts, as COLAs are tied to inflation rather than interest rates [5][6] Impact of Fed's Rate Cuts - While the Fed does not directly set Social Security COLAs, its actions can indirectly influence future COLAs by affecting inflation [7][8] - Lower interest rates may stimulate consumer spending, which could lead to higher prices and potentially increase CPI-W numbers, resulting in larger future COLAs [9]

Core Insights - The purchasing power of Social Security benefits has declined due to inadequate Cost of Living Adjustments (COLAs) that fail to keep pace with inflation, particularly affecting retirees who have different spending habits compared to urban wage earners [1][2] - Social Security benefits are a primary income source for many retirees, but their value has decreased to approximately $0.80 on the dollar compared to 2010 levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decisions, including a quarter-percentage-point cut, could significantly influence future COLAs for retirees [3][5] Economic Impact - The December 2025 rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the end of three rate reductions for the year, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [5] - In 2026, retirees are projected to receive a 2.8% COLA, but this may not be sufficient given the inflation trends, with estimates for 2027 potentially dropping to between 2.3% and 2.6% [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates suggests a belief that high inflation will not persist, which may lead to more modest COLAs in the near future [8][9] Future Projections - The COLA for 2027 is expected to be lower due to the Fed's recent rate cuts and forecasts of Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation at 2.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027 [7][12] - While a smaller COLA may seem negative, it could indicate a stabilization in prices that would alleviate financial stress for retirees [11][12]

新华财经巴黎12月13日电（记者李文昕）法国国家统计和经济研究所（INSEE）12日公布的最终数据显 示，11月法国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.9%，涨幅与上月持平。 （文章来源：新华财经） 法国国家统计和经济研究所在报告中表示，通胀趋于稳定主要得益于服务价格增速放缓，同比涨幅从10 月的2.4%降至2.2%，且工业制成品价格跌幅小幅扩大，在一定程度上抵消了服务价格的上涨；另外， 能源价格同比跌幅收窄，从10月的5.6%降至4.6%，以及食品价格小幅上涨，两者亦对通胀保持稳定起 到一定支撑作用。 数据还显示，烟草价格同比增速与上月持平，为4.1%。 ...