周二，金银又双叒叕创下历史新高。 现货黄金遥遥直上一度突破4730美元/盎司，现涨117%；纽约期金站上4740美元/盎司，日内涨3.17%。 白现货银涨势也凶猛，今日站上95美元/盎司，现涨1%。 "关税之王"发力，贵金属盛宴继续。 川普翻脸，欧美"决裂" 近来，由于特朗普的"肆无忌惮"对美元造成持续压力，投资者纷纷涌向避险资产。 今年开年不到一个月，黄金累计涨幅已近10%，白银更是一马当先累涨近33%。 "关税夺岛"威胁之后，西半球彻底乱了。 本周，欧美裂痕不断加剧，特朗普跨大西洋版贸易战2.0正式开打。 继周末对欧洲八国加征关税后，特朗普又给法国一记重锤。 当地时间1月20日，特朗普称将对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。 若此项关税生效，将意味着法国葡萄酒对美出口可能全面停滞（法国对美酒类年出口额约40亿欧元）。 眼下，欧盟多国正协调立场，强调以统一行动维护主权，避免单边妥协。 稍早前，特朗普已经发出关税威胁。 美国将从2月1日起对上述国家出口至美国的所有商品加征10%关税，税率拟于6月1日提高至25%。 随后欧盟扬言准备反击。这其中，法国的立场尤为"强硬"。 法国总统马克龙一直敦促欧盟动用最强贸易 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices reached a historic high on January 20, with both New York Mercantile Exchange futures and London spot prices surpassing $4,700 per ounce, driven by tensions in US-EU trade relations and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement by the US to impose tariffs on European countries opposing the acquisition of Greenland has led to ongoing financial market volatility, prompting investors to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. - The US plans to impose a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, with the rate increasing to 25% from June 1, contingent on negotiations regarding Greenland [1]. - In response, multiple EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $930 billion worth of US goods or restricting access for US companies to the EU market as retaliation against the US tariffs [1]. Group 2: Additional Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The threat by President Trump to impose a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, following France's refusal to join a US-led committee for post-war governance in Gaza, has further contributed to the rise in international gold prices [2].

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets experienced a strong rally, with domestic spot gold reaching a historical high of 1055.47 yuan per gram, up 1.03% on January 20, and spot silver rising to 21.1 yuan per gram, up 0.88% on the same day [1][3] - Year-to-date, spot gold has increased by 84.01 yuan per gram, while spot silver has risen by 4.11 yuan per gram [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surged, with multiple brands pricing gold jewelry above 1450 yuan per gram, indicating a significant market response to rising gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - The substantial increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariffs on European countries, and rising market risk aversion, making gold and silver attractive as safe-haven assets [3] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing rate-cutting cycle and expectations for multiple rate cuts this year have lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price [3] - The demand for silver is particularly strong, driven by its use in photovoltaic applications, electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure, and AI data centers, while supply responses remain slow [6] Group 3 - Retail demand for gold has increased by approximately 20% in recent weeks, with consumers rushing to purchase gold jewelry amid rising prices [9] - Some consumers are adjusting their purchasing plans due to price increases, opting for lighter-weight items or those with better cost-performance ratios [9] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei jewelry market, businesses are facing rising raw material costs, prompting them to adjust their strategies by focusing on popular classic styles and increasing the production of silver jewelry to maintain profit margins [10] Group 4 - Multiple institutions express a long-term bullish outlook on gold and silver prices, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's policies as supportive factors [10] - Short-term risks include potential volatility in silver prices due to its dual financial and industrial roles, while gold is expected to remain relatively stable despite being at historical highs [11]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,836.20 per troy ounce on Thursday, nearly even with Wednesday’s closing price of $4,837.50. The price of gold reached an all-time high of $4,872.30 on Wednesday. The slight decline in gold’s price follows President Trump’s decision to drop proposed tariffs against several European countries. He had previously threatened the tariffs to force a U.S. acquisition of Greenland. After meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, however, Trump said he had the “framework” of ...

1月20日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司4700美元，创下有史以来最高纪录。今年以来，金价已连续跨越 4500、4600、4700美元三大整数关口，国内主流金饰品牌足金报价同步突破每克1450元。在美联储独立 性遭遇政治干预、美国以关税施压丹麦推动格陵兰岛收购谈判、地缘风险指数显著抬升的背景下，黄金 作为终极避险资产获得强劲支撑。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室已将2026年3月、6月和9月的目标价由4500美元上调至5000美元，并提 示，若政治或金融风险进一步上升，金价有望冲高至5400美元。 然而，面对如此高位，市场分歧加剧。这是一场由美联储独立性危机、地缘政治升级和通胀降温共同点 燃的狂欢，也是对所有投资者的灵魂拷问：这是难得一遇的盛宴开端，还是击鼓传花的危险游戏？ 驱动本轮上涨的核心逻辑已超越传统通胀对冲范畴，转向对制度信用与全球秩序稳定性的重新定价。东 方金诚《黄金周报（2026.1.12–2026.1.18）》指出，上周多位拥有2026年FOMC投票权的美联储官员密 集发声，强调"央行独立性对维持物价稳定不可或缺"。费城联储主席保尔森表示，降息决策需基于经济 数据而非外部压力。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Spot gold is experiencing high volatility, trading around $4,670 per ounce, following a surge to a historical high of $4,690 due to geopolitical tensions initiated by President Trump, which has sparked a significant demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][6] - The current trading range for spot gold is between $4,660 and $4,680, indicating a period of consolidation after the recent highs [1][6] Group 2: Economic and Political Developments - The United Nations Development Programme announced a restructuring that will relocate nearly 400 jobs from its New York headquarters to Europe, primarily to Bonn, Germany, and Madrid, Spain, to adapt to global financial changes [7][8] - A critical test of the Federal Reserve's independence is set to occur in the U.S. Supreme Court regarding President Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could have significant implications for the value of the dollar [7][8] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Domestic unrest in Iran has subsided, reducing the risk of U.S. military action that could disrupt oil supplies [8] - The Israeli Defense Forces are on high alert, having learned from past conflicts with Iran, indicating a potential for increased military tensions in the region [8] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that gold prices fell below the 5-day moving average of $4,635, suggesting a potential correction; however, recent news has reignited buying interest, keeping prices above this level [9] - The market is currently characterized by emotional trading rather than fundamental trends, with significant resistance noted between $4,690 and $4,700, and support at the 5-day moving average [9]

OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，随着美元走软，黄金也获得支撑。与此同时，欧盟仍有可能 出台非关税措施，欧洲主权财富基金或可借此机会抛售美国资产。Pepperstone研究策略师Ahmad Assiri 表示："在谈判前景明朗之前，贵金属有望继续成为市场当前防御情绪的最直观体现。" 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：磐石 来源：金十数据 1月20日，现货黄金价格再创新高，突破每盎司4700美元大关，因特朗普的威胁引发了避险需求。与此 同时，白银价格也接近历史高位。由于美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧洲盟友加征额外关税，这使得全球市 场情绪恶化，并引发了投资者纷纷涌入避险资产的热潮。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃特尔表示："特朗普在国际事务中采取的'颠覆性'政策手段以及他希 望降低利率的意愿，对于贵金属而言非常有利，这从黄金和白银的大幅上涨中就可见一斑。""特朗普的 第二个任期迄今为止对贵金属来说是一大利好，因为他独特的政治策略恰好迎合了黄金和白银的需 求。" ...

格隆汇1月20日｜现货黄金价格再创新高，突破每盎司4700美元大关，因特朗普的威胁引发了避险需 求。与此同时，白银价格也接近历史高位。由于美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧洲盟友加征额外关税，这使 得全球市场情绪恶化，并引发了投资者纷纷涌入避险资产的热潮。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆·沃 特尔表示："特朗普在国际事务中采取的'颠覆性'政策手段以及他希望降低利率的意愿，对于贵金属而 言非常有利，这从黄金和白银的大幅上涨中就可见一斑。""特朗普的第二个任期迄今为止对贵金属来说 是一大利好，因为他独特的政治策略恰好迎合了黄金和白银的需求。" OANDA高级市场分析师Kelvin Wong表示，随着美元走软，黄金也获得支撑。与此同时，欧盟仍有可能出台非关税措施，欧洲主权财 富基金或可借此机会抛售美国资产。Pepperstone研究策略师Ahmad Assiri表示："在谈判前景明朗之前， 贵金属有望继续成为市场当前防御情绪的最直观体现。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on January 20, with the ChiNext Index falling by 1.79% and the North Securities 50 Index dropping by 2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The precious metals sector saw significant movement, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Zhaojin Gold hitting the daily limit up, while other related stocks such as Western Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Chifeng Gold also experienced gains [1] - International gold prices reached a new high, with London spot gold surpassing the $4,700 mark, setting a historical record [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Galaxy Futures suggests that in the short term, the gold market should remain cautious due to the combined effects of policy, capital, and sentiment factors [1] - Gold is expected to maintain its status as a core safe-haven asset, potentially outperforming silver in terms of stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 and Trump's proposal for a Bitcoin reserve have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream recognized asset class, referred to as "digital gold" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Evolution and Market Positioning - The Trump administration is accelerating Bitcoin's transition from a retail-driven speculative tool to an institutionally recognized asset class, altering its hedging characteristics [2][4]. - The study examines Bitcoin's hedging properties compared to gold during different crisis periods, particularly focusing on the evolution of Bitcoin's hedging features in the Trump 2.0 era [5][6]. - Prior to Trump 2.0, Bitcoin and gold exhibited similar hedging characteristics primarily during mid-term crises, but this similarity has diminished in the Trump 2.0 period, with Bitcoin showing increased correlation with the market [6][21]. Group 2: Methodology and Data Analysis - The research utilizes frequency domain decomposition and quantile Granger causality tests to analyze Bitcoin's hedging properties over time, providing new empirical evidence on its behavior under different market conditions [6][12][13]. - Data from March 2015 to May 2025 was collected, focusing on the significant growth and stability of the cryptocurrency market post-2015, ensuring reliability in comparisons with traditional financial assets [12][13]. Group 3: Risk Transmission and Hedging Properties - The results indicate that Bitcoin has the lowest risk transmission levels among various assets, suggesting its potential as a diversification investment [19][20]. - In the Trump 2.0 era, the risk transmission structure has changed significantly, with an overall increase in sensitivity to policy and geopolitical shocks, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market [21][22]. - Bitcoin's hedging properties are context-dependent, showing potential as a hedging asset during specific crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Silicon Valley Bank collapse [24][26]. Group 4: Implications for Investors and Policymakers - The findings suggest that Bitcoin is transitioning from a quasi-hedging asset to a high-risk growth asset, indicating that it may no longer be suitable for long-term hedging against traditional risk assets [31][34]. - For investors, it is crucial to recognize the dynamic changes in Bitcoin's hedging attributes and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly, especially in the context of increasing correlation with mainstream assets [34]. - Policymakers should enhance monitoring and regulation of the interconnectedness between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial markets, given the increased risk transmission observed in the Trump 2.0 era [23][34].