丰田表示，美国相关关税举措已给企业业绩造成较大负面影响，预计今年4月份和5月份，丰田将损失销 售额1800亿日元。另外，原材料价格上涨也给企业运营带来较大压力。 近日，有日本学者分析指出，因美国滥施关税，日本整个汽车行业将受到极其严重的冲击，日本汽车产 业的合作企业数量庞大，加之其本身又是支柱产业，相关产业链较为广泛。因此，一旦汽车产业遭受重 创，很可能会成为日本经济动荡的重要诱因。 日本丰田汽车公司5月8日表示，受美国政府一系列关税举措拖累，预计公司2025财年（2025年4月份至 2026年3月份）净利润将同比萎缩34.9%。 美国考克斯汽车公司高级主管艾琳·基廷称，汽车库存看起来会"枯竭"，这一现象主要由两方面因素导 致：一方面，消费者赶在关税举措生效前集中购车；另一方面，多数汽车制造商在调整产量和定价策略 的过程中，暂时减少或暂停了向经销商供货。 美国制造贸易战的不确定性也影响了消费者的购车决策。对于打算购买进口汽车或零部件的消费者来 说，关税导致的价格上涨可能让他们推迟购买。同时，美国产进口车也将面临成本上升与其他竞争对手 的双重压力。 无论是福特、通用这2家具有代表性的美国车企，还是从美国汽车销售 ...

在国际政治经济舞台上，美国的一举一动都备受瞩目。近期，美国在经贸、国内政治与社会、国际事务等多方面呈现出一系列新动向，这些动向不仅深刻影 响着美国自身的发展轨迹，也对全球格局产生着重要的外溢效应。 经贸领域：关税调整与经济政策博弈 中美经贸关系的微妙变化 近期，中美经贸关系成为全球焦点。5 月 10 日，两国代表在瑞士日内瓦重启关税谈判，这一谈判被外界视为 "全球贸易秩序分水岭"。美方抛出 "将关税从 145% 降至 80%" 的方案，然而附加条件却直指中国核心利益，包括全面开放市场、解除稀土出口管制、强化芬太尼管控等。这种 "降关税当恩赐，换实质 主权让步" 的逻辑，被美国智库彼得森研究所直言 "荒谬"。从数据来看，即便美方将关税降至 80%，中国光伏、机械、纺织等行业的综合成本仍将高出国际 均价 37%，而美国对华出口的半导体设备、大豆等商品却要求零关税准入 ，这种 "单行道" 式要价难以撼动中方立场。 在谈判前，美国还接连与英国、印度达成贸易协议。英国以消除市场壁垒、扩大进口美国农产品为代价，换取维持 10% 的基础关税；印度则承诺对 90% 美 国商品实施低关税，将两国平均关税差从 13% 压缩至 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on imported aircraft and parts, following similar measures on automobiles and ships, which could significantly impact the aviation supply chain and related industries [1][2][14]. Group 1: Import and Export Data - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to import aircraft worth $62.1 billion and export aircraft worth $123.6 billion, indicating a substantial trade balance in favor of exports [4]. - Boeing primarily exports aircraft globally but relies on imported parts and materials, highlighting the interconnectedness of the supply chain [4][10]. Group 2: Impact on Aircraft Manufacturers - The potential tariffs could affect two main categories: aircraft imported from Europe and parts supplied globally to Boeing [5]. - Airbus, despite being a competitor, has a significant market presence in the U.S., with models like the A320 and A321 series being popular due to their operational efficiency [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - A single aircraft consists of approximately 3 million parts, and imposing a "plane tax" could disrupt Boeing's global supply chain, particularly affecting Japanese suppliers [8]. - Japanese manufacturers play a crucial role in Boeing's production, with significant contributions to models like the 787, where Japanese firms account for 35% of the production [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The automotive industry in Japan, already affected by U.S. tariffs on cars, could face further challenges if tariffs extend to aircraft, potentially harming both Japanese and U.S. industries [15]. - The U.S. has also announced additional fees for ships, indicating a broader trend of increasing tariffs across various sectors, which could further strain international trade relationships [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The tariff exemption greatly exceeded market expectations, and the tariff trading is capricious, with the consensus expectation likely to reverse. Equities have odds, while bonds require caution. A robust trading framework should be established to guide investments in the year of tariffs. The impact of tariffs on the bond market should also be closely monitored [5][12]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Analyze the So - called "Reciprocal Tariffs"? - The most common analogy is to compare the "reciprocal tariffs" to the continuation of the 2018 China - US trade war, which affects the risk appetite of equity assets and the counter - cyclical adjustment mechanism. The intuitive "fast thinking" is that increased tariffs lead to reduced exports, affecting GDP and shifting the interest rate center downward [13]. - However, "comparing to 2018" is a view mainly held by A - share investors. The US economic and investment circles emphasize the 1930s Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act, but its reference value is questionable. The current trade war is a cyclical change in US trade policy, and tariffs are also a political movement to some extent [15][16]. - The market's previous over - pessimistic pricing and the current view that tariffs have quickly failed may oversimplify the complexity of the political impact of tariffs [20]. 2. The Cyclical Perspective of US Trade Policy - Since its establishment, the US federal government has been closely related to tariffs, with the initial goals of maintaining fiscal balance and protecting manufacturing. Economic and industrial changes lead to changes in tariff policies under the political cycle [7][21]. - Tariff policy is a policy that emphasizes regions rather than parties. Trade concept changes often play an important role in the six party realignments in US history [23]. - The current differences in the Trump administration are normal in US democratic politics and do not necessarily mean the failure of the tariff bill. In 2025, few technology companies, ordinary consumers, or manufacturing unions support the current radical tariff bill [26]. 3. The Economic Results of Trade Policy: Doubtful and Unimportant - The economic impact of trade policy can be understood from two aspects: its impact on the economy determines the direction and magnitude of the market, and its feedback on trade policy affects the market rhythm. The economic results of tariffs, both positive and negative, are doubtful [32]. - Historical evidence shows that trade protection policies have limited effects on enhancing industrial competitiveness and may have negative impacts on consumers and the overall economy [37]. 4. How to Set up a Robust and Investment - Guiding Trading Framework in the Year of Tariffs? - Step 1: Set a baseline for the possible final outcome of tariffs by reviewing the historical cyclical tariff policies of the US. - Step 2: Make qualitative predictions, such as the dollar appreciation ratio, the intervention rhythm of administrative departments and Congress, the frequency of opposition cases or lawsuits, and the counter - impact of public opinion and asset prices on tariff policy intensity. - Step 3: Conduct long - short trading if the implied expectation of short - term market fluctuations exceeds the set baseline, and adjust the baseline expectation if new developments deviate from the assumptions [39]. 5. Back to the Domestic Bond Market: Pay Attention to the Technical Attenuation of Tariff Factors - Since March, the bond market has experienced "oversold rebound → trading tariff factors → correction of tariff factors". In May, the bond market is likely to return to the main logic of March, and the reasons behind the "liability shortage" may not have simply ended [7][41][42].

我们理解，良好的开端展示了双方沟通的诚意，关税从 145%的非 理性水平降至目前相对理性水平，这应是双方正常经贸合作的基本， 或是中美经贸谈判的开始，后续谈判或将进入实质性环节。考虑美国 特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后续谈判或存在反复的可能。从美 国特朗普竞选主张，以及美国特朗普政府相关官员的发言，美国特朗 普政府对我国的贸易政策并非基于对等关税政策，而是典型的贸易保 护主义，美国特朗普政府一再扬言，要取消中国最惠国待遇。年初特 朗普团队提名国务卿公布的法案，宣称取消中国最惠国待遇。仅从本 次中美经贸会谈结果来看，在 90 天的豁免期内，美国对我国加征关 税税率已经达到 51%，高于最惠国待遇的平均关税税率；若 90 天的豁 免期结束后，美国继续加征 24%的关税，那么美国对我国商品加征的 平均关税税率则高达 75%。整体来看，目前中美双方或进入实质性谈 判阶段，后续或仍存在谈判空间，最惠国待遇的平均关税税率或是双 方谈判的关键分水岭。考虑美国特朗普政府过往的一贯行事风格，后 续谈判或存在反复的可能，值得关注。 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 E ...

这边关税战还没消停，台湾问题又被美国拿出来做文章。特朗普政府最近释放出"弃台"信号。美国债务 危机越来越严重，特朗普着急给经济止损，就想拿"弃台"当筹码，让中方减免债务。美国财长贝森特甚 至提议，用"弃台"换中国大陆免去部分美债。其实早在2015年，奥巴马当总统时，就有人提出过类似想 法。现在旧事重提，也暴露了美国一直把台湾当成战略棋子的真实想法。 美国（资料图） 据中国青年报报道，外交部发言人郭嘉昆重申，对美国关税战，中方不愿打也不怕打。这番表态背后， 是中美贸易博弈与台海局势交织的复杂局面。 2025年3月，美国突然在全球推行"对等关税"，对中国关税税率飙升至145%。美国想靠这招实现"贸易 再平衡"，巩固自己在全球贸易的老大地位。可现实狠狠打了美国一巴掌。美国国债早就超过36万亿， 每年光还利息就得花1.1万亿。财政一年收入才4.9万亿美元，支出却高达6.75万亿，债务每年以1.8 - 2.7 万亿美元的速度增加。 特朗普（资料图） 加征关税这招不仅没达到目的，反而把美国经济拖进泥潭。美国金融市场股、债、汇全下跌，农业、高 科技、汽车这些产业，供应链出问题，产品也卖不动。国内老百姓怨声载道，连英国、日本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of trade cooperation and the detrimental effects of protectionism on global economic collaboration, asserting that mutual benefits and open cooperation are essential for economic prosperity [1][2][5]. Trade Dynamics - The article critiques the prevailing notion in the U.S. that trade deficits equate to losses, arguing that imports enhance national welfare and that halting imports would lead to higher costs for consumers [2][3]. - It highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is primarily driven by its domestic economic model characterized by low savings, high consumption, and high debt, necessitating imports to fill the investment gap [3]. China’s Trade Strategy - China is expanding its diverse and balanced trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with the EU and ASEAN, indicating a shift towards a more resilient trade structure [4]. - The article notes that China's trade with ASEAN reached 1.71 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase, and trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 2.2% [4]. Economic Integration - The integration of domestic and international trade is advancing, with 87,000 industrial enterprises achieving integrated operations, reflecting a 6.3% growth [4]. - The article mentions that over 2,200 enterprises are leading in this integrated approach, enhancing the synergy between international and domestic markets [4]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that China's ongoing participation in global technological revolutions and industrial transformations will bolster its economic development, countering narratives of economic collapse [5].

上周，在几轮你来我往的试探后，欧盟宣布将对美国加征关税实施反制措施，并向世界贸易组织提起诉 讼。美国一些人挑起的这场贸易争端不仅令两大经济体利益产生直接碰撞，更折射出全球经济在贸易保 护主义冲击下面临的深层次矛盾。从美国极限施压到欧盟决定反制，中间还掺杂着英国"另辟蹊径"式的 对美妥协，欧美贸易争端在复杂局面下或陷入拉锯战。 美国则持续通过极限施压与分化瓦解的策略交替对欧盟施压。一方面，美国关税目前覆盖了欧盟对美商 品贸易的70%，在美国对药品、半导体和其他产品进行进一步调查后，这一比例可能会上升到97%，美 国仍在通过持续制造经济压力迫使欧盟让步；另一方面，美国也试图通过各个击破方式瓦解欧盟，如拉 拢意大利等成员国，利用德法在汽车产业、农业补贴上的分歧制造内部裂痕。5月8日，美国甚至在诸多 细节尚未敲定、此前加征的10%所谓"对等关税"也未取消的情况下，迫不及待地宣布"美国与英国达成 一项新的贸易协议，部分撤回特定领域的关税，进一步扩大双方产品的市场准入"。这套美式"大棒加胡 萝卜"组合拳，本质上是在将经贸问题政治化，将双边谈判转化为更加复杂的地缘博弈，好方便一些人 浑水摸鱼。 欧盟和美国之间存在不少短期内 ...

正如专家所言，虽然这一次会谈的结果值得庆祝，但双边关系中的诸多不确定性仍需谨慎对待。中方明确表示，如果美方继续采取"言行不一"的策 略，甚至企图通过谈判来谋求利益，中方绝不会答应。在这样的博弈中，上述的"强硬"态度恰恰是中方维权的重要手段。 最近，中美之间的贸易谈判再次成为关注的焦点。刚刚闭幕的日内瓦经贸会谈，似乎为这两大经济体的关系带来了久违的曙光。令人意外的是，在曾 经剑拔弩张的局势中，中美双方竟然能达成诸多共识，这给全球市场注入了一剂强心针。 众所周知，在特朗普政府再次入主白宫以来，美方怀着"美国优先"的理念，加大了对中国商品的关税。这不仅加剧了两国间的紧张关系，也让全球经 济感受到阵阵寒风。在这样的背景下，日前在瑞士日内瓦举行的经贸会谈可谓是一次迫切而必要的外交尝试。 5月10日至11日的会谈成功超出了许多人的预期。双方表现出前所未有的坦诚和务实，特别是在关税问题上取得了实质性的进展。中方代表何立峰指 出，双方应当本着解决问题的务实态度进行深入磋商，以推进双边经济关系的健康发展。这一表态不仅展现了中方希望结束"关税战"的决心，也反映 了其对于持续合作的期待。 5月12日下午，中美各自发布日内瓦经贸会谈 ...

中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得重大进展 中美普林格时钟 5月资产配置月报 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 分析师:何佳烨 执业证书编号:S0740523060002 Email: heiv01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 资产配置框架系列报告: 1 重新认识美林时钟 -- 大类资产配置框架研究系列1 2 以普林格时钟为鉴,我们 如何搭建资产配置框架? -- 大类资产配置框架研究系列2 3 甚于普林格时钟框架,中 美行业轮动规律有哪些共同 的特点? 报告摘要 ■ 川普的第一份协议—U.S .- UK Economic Prosperity Deal(EPD) 美英协议（U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal）:该协议未触及双边贸易核心难点 与结构性障碍,本质是象征性政治举措。美国维持关税保护主义,英国单方面降税。 关税安排未发生实质性改变,美国维持核心保护主义立场:协议宣布英国将其关税从 5.1%下调至1.8%,表面上看,英国做出了让步。然而,美国方面并未采取相应的对等 降税措施,依然保留对英商品10%的关税。这表明美国并未打破其关税保护主义的架 构,而是单方 ...