值得注意的是，在黄金价格开启高位震荡行情之际，白银价格近期持续走高，引发市场关 注。数据显示，本周，现货白银价格累计上涨超9%，一度站上36美元/盎司，为2012年2 月以来首次。 金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。美东时间6月6日，现货黄金价格下跌超过1.2%，收报3309.47 美元/盎司。而在6月7日，国内部分品牌金饰的金价也回到了每克1000元之下。 美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说， 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今 年夏天结束，美国政策制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政 策的不确定性能于"7月消散"，美联储才可能筹备9月降息。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所 致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司黄金可以换100盎司白银， 已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白银被严重低估，要么黄金被严重高估。此 外，从白银的波动率来看，由于白银的市场规模仅为黄金的十分之一，意味着相当的资金流 入往往会引发白银价格更大的波动。 有 ...

智通财经6月6日电，在欧洲央行（ECB）会议上，大多数成员表示倾向于7月维持利率不变，一些成员 主张延长暂停加息周期。 ...

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector job growth slowed to a near standstill in May, with only 37,000 jobs added, the lowest level in over two years, and significantly below the market forecast of 110,000 [1][3] - The report shows a mixed picture in the labor market, with the goods-producing sector losing 2,000 jobs, while the construction industry added 6,000 jobs, partially offsetting losses in other areas [3][4] - In the services sector, leisure and hospitality added 38,000 jobs, while professional/business services and education/health services saw declines, contributing to the overall slowdown in job growth [3][5] Group 2 - The annual salary growth rate for retained employees is 4.5%, while for those who switch jobs, it is 7%, indicating a strong wage growth environment despite the slowdown in job creation [3][5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some economists expressing concerns about the limited hiring and low turnover rates, suggesting that the labor market may not sustain its current state for long [5][6] - Federal Reserve officials maintain an optimistic view of the economy, but there are rising concerns about the potential impact of trade policies on inflation and employment [5][6]

英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：在利率方面采取更大胆的举措比长期按兵不动要好。 ...

智通财经6月3日电，英国央行货币政策委员曼恩表示，必须考虑量化紧缩（QT）和一系列利率政策的 影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Mann emphasizes the necessity to consider the impacts of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and a range of interest rate policies [1] Group 1 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding how QT interacts with monetary policy decisions [1] - Mann suggests that the implications of QT should not be overlooked in the context of current economic conditions [1] - The need for a comprehensive approach to monetary policy is underscored, taking into account both QT and interest rate adjustments [1]

周三（5月28日）欧洲时段，黄金价格周三陷入盘整偏弱格局，因美元延续反弹、市场风险偏好情绪升 温，打压避险需求。尽管亚盘初略有回升，但现货黄金未能站稳3300美元，显示上方阻力依旧强劲。特 朗普推迟对欧盟征收50%关税至7月9日，短期内增强了风险偏好情绪，削弱了黄金避险需求。不过，贸 易政策仍存在重大不确定性，加上美国财政状况持续恶化以及地缘政治风险持续，为金价提供部分支 撑。 此外，路透社透露的数据显示，4月份中国通过香港的黄金净进口量比3月份增加了一倍多，达到自2024 年3月以来的最高水平。同时，根据Prime Market Terminal的数据，货币市场表明，交易员预计年底前将 宽松46.5个基点。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利表示，在明确提高关税如何影响价格稳定之前，利率应保持不 变。这一系列因素相互交织，共同影响着当前复杂多变的金融市场格局。 在技术分析领域，周二金价走势出现关键变化，于跌破短期上升趋势线后呈现出进一步回调态势。当 前，金价正处于对4小时图200周期均线所在3295美元一线的测试阶段。值得注意的是，一旦该均线被有 效跌破，且形成具有确认意义的收盘状态，那么短期内的下行趋势或 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term long allocation, medium to long-term bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways to weak [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Sideways [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [3] - Gold: High-level sideways [3] - Silver: Bullish sideways [3] - Pulp: Sideways [5] - Logs: Sideways [5] - Soybean oil: Sideways [5] - Palm oil: Sideways [5] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [5] - Live pigs: Sideways [7] - Rubber: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment in the early stage is gradually weakening, and various industries are mainly influenced by fundamentals, supply and demand, and external factors [2][3][5][7][8] - The market is affected by factors such as Sino-US relations, tariff policies, interest rate policies, and seasonal factors, with significant uncertainties [2][3][5][7][8] Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short-term, it returns to fundamentals, with high valuation in the black sector and mainly long allocation. Steel mill profitability is high, and there is new restocking demand. However, iron ore port inventory is relatively high, and iron water production has decreased. Medium to long-term, it is bearish due to weak domestic demand [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal are loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Steel mill iron water production has slightly decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall oversupply situation following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The upward momentum driven by policies and sentiment is weakening. Demand is falling, and supply is increasing. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the destocking. Steel prices are under phased pressure [2] - **Glass**: There are rumors of production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and production and sales have improved. However, production lines have resumed operation, and inventory has increased significantly. In the long term, demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2] - **Soda ash**: Sideways, mainly affected by the overall situation of the glass industry [2] Financial Industry - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. The central bank and the foreign exchange bureau plan to improve the management of overseas direct listing funds of domestic enterprises. The issuance of the first 50-year special treasury bond has been completed, and the bond market is mainly affected by supply pressure and capital conditions [2][3] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond is flat, and the market interest rate is consolidating. The treasury bond market is in a narrow sideways range, and long positions can be held lightly [3] - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The current upward logic remains unchanged, and it is mainly affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy. It is expected to maintain a high-level sideways trend [3] - **Silver**: Bullish sideways, affected by factors such as inflation and market sentiment [3] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable, but the cost price has decreased, and the demand is in the off-season. The paper mill inventory is accumulating, and it is expected to be sideways [5] - **Logs**: The downstream is in the seasonal off-season, and the demand is average. The supply pressure is relatively weak, and it is expected to be in a bottom sideways pattern [5] Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils and fats**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the supply of the three major oils is abundant. It is currently in the traditional consumption off-season, but there is pre-festival stocking demand. It is expected to be sideways [5] - **Meal products**: The inventory of US soybeans may tighten further, and the cost of imported soybeans has increased. The domestic soybean supply has become loose, and the inventory of soybean meal has increased. It is expected to rebound in the short term [5] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the demand of slaughter enterprises is stable. The post-festival consumption demand has decreased seasonally, but the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. It is expected to be sideways [7] - **Rubber**: The supply is temporarily under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The tire enterprise operating rate has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially. It is expected to be sideways [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PX inventory has been continuously reduced, with the PXN spread repaired. It is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The US traditional peak season supports oil prices, and PTA inventory is being reduced. It is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations [8] - **MEG**: The domestic production load has decreased, and the port is expected to destock. The raw material end is weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro sentiment [8] - **PR**: There is some cost support, but downstream follow-up is insufficient. The polyester bottle chip market may adjust slightly stronger [8] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. However, there is still some cost support, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [8]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $3280 per ounce, with an increase of over 1.5% during the day amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade outlooks [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, despite President Trump's pressure for rate cuts, with expectations for two rate cuts later in the year [3] - The decline in the U.S. credit rating has further weakened the credibility of the dollar, which has already been affected by fluctuating tariff policies from Washington [3] Group 2 - A bullish trend line has been established from the low of 3120 to recent lows, with current gold prices around 3280 showing resistance to further upward movement [5] - The trading strategy suggests waiting for a pullback to around 3263 to enter long positions, with key resistance levels at 3285 and 3300, and a final target of 3318 [5] - Short-term upward breaks do not confirm a trend reversal; a break above 3500 to 3440 is needed to establish a longer-term bullish trend [5]

尼日利亚央行将利率维持在27.50%不变，符合市场预期。 ...