高开低走后一路回撤，截止午盘三大指数集体收跌，其中沪指下跌0.46%，深成指下跌0.18%，创业板 指下跌0.3%。两市合计超4200只个股下跌，合计成交额1.16万亿。 消息面：摩根大通策略师预计美联储明年只会再降息一次。药品监管部门支持企业加强创新药械研发布 局，将审评资源充分向"全球新"的原创性产品和突破"卡脖子"技术的国产替代产品倾斜。 欢迎您在评论中分享自己的看法，大家一起学习和讨论。 零售集体下挫，其中茂业商业触及跌停。福建方向多股走弱，其中海欣食品、舒华体育跌停。水产养 殖、预制菜、租售同权、房地产等板块紧随其后。 商业航天概念延续强势，其中再升科技4连板，四川金顶6天3板，华菱线缆、金风科技、银河电子等多 股涨停。算力硬件概念表现活跃，其中富信科技触及20cm涨停，赛微电子、新易盛盘中双双创历史新 高。 ...

Macro Dynamics - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in November, China's automobile exports reached 728,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 9.3% and a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. The total exports from January to November amounted to 6.343 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.7%. It is projected that by 2025, annual automobile exports could reach 7 million units [2]. Trade Relations - Mexico's Senate has passed a new tariff law that will impose tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on certain products from several Asian countries, including China, starting next year. The Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed hope that Mexico would correct this protectionist approach to maintain healthy bilateral trade relations [3]. Semiconductor Industry - The Ministry of Commerce of China is pushing for representatives from Nexperia Netherlands to visit China to discuss corporate control and supply chain stability following a letter from Wingtech Technology inviting them for negotiations [4][5]. Rare Earth Industry - Vietnam's National Assembly has passed a law restricting the export of refined rare earths and reaffirming a ban on the export of rare earth ores to support its domestic rare earth industry. Despite having significant rare earth reserves, Vietnam's estimated reserves have been drastically reduced from 22 million tons to 3.5 million tons [6]. Financial Institutions - The former head of the policy research office at the Agricultural Development Bank of China, Wu Biao, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [7]. Market Data - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext index dropping over 1%. Nearly 4,400 stocks in the market closed lower, while the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan [12]. The financing balance in both markets increased by 3.472 billion yuan, reaching a total of 24.888 trillion yuan [13]. Company Dynamics - Bluetron Optoelectronics announced the termination of its agreement to purchase a stake in Star Semiconductor, with no payment made for the shares as of now [15]. Bilibili denied rumors regarding a full membership system and stated that it would pursue legal action against those spreading false information [16]. Wanhu Chemical has signed an investment agreement to build a 650,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project in Laizhou, which will support the development of new energy industries in Shandong Province [17]. Huawei launched its new generation Harmony PC, the Huawei Qingyun HM740, which boasts the longest battery life among its laptops to date [18]. Vanke's domestic bonds saw a significant decline, with some bonds dropping over 18% [19].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index opening high but closing lower, while the ChiNext Index initially rose over 1% before retreating [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion, an increase of 78.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 4,400 stocks in the market declined, indicating a broad sell-off [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed resilience, with several stocks, including Zengsheng Technology, hitting the daily limit [1] - Retail concepts saw localized activity, with Baida Group quickly reaching the daily limit and Dongbai Group achieving five consecutive limit-ups [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector also performed well, with Yaxiang Integration hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high [1] - In contrast, several stocks in the Fujian direction weakened, with China Wuyi and Shuhua Sports hitting the daily limit down [1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, attributed to expectations surrounding the next Federal Reserve chair and the upcoming peak of lock-up stock releases in December [2][4] - The market is sensitive to external factors, including potential changes in U.S. interest rate policies and global trading dynamics [2] Potential Rebound Timing - A potential rebound is anticipated in mid to late December, depending on fiscal policy announcements and the Bank of Japan's interest rate statements [4] - Early January is also highlighted as a critical period, coinciding with the end of the lock-up peak and the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes [5] VC Additive Market Dynamics - The price for lithium battery VC additives has been locked in at 150,000 to 170,000 per ton for December, significantly exceeding market expectations [7] - Despite concerns over a potential decline in battery production in January, structural demand for VC additives is expected to remain strong, particularly in energy storage batteries [7] - The effective supply of VC is projected to be around 105,000 tons next year, while total demand is expected to reach 120,000 tons, indicating a tight supply situation [7] - The industry is at a critical juncture of high demand growth and cyclical turning points, with leading companies trading at historically low price-to-earnings ratios [7] Future Outlook - By 2026, the demand growth for VC is anticipated to exceed 64%, driven by the expansion of the lithium battery market and technological advancements [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with major indices falling, while the North Exchange 50 index saw an increase, indicating mixed market sentiment [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32, down 0.70% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.27% to 13147.39 [2] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% to 3163.67 [2] - The North Exchange 50 Index rose by 3.84% to 1443.1 [2] - Total market turnover reached 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 936 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 4300 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector declined, with China Wuyi hitting the daily limit down [5] - The Fujian sector also retreated, with multiple stocks like Huaying Technology and Xiamen Xinda hitting the daily limit down [5] - The duty-free concept saw a drop, with Guangbai shares falling nearly 9% [5] - The aquaculture sector weakened, with Tianma Technology hitting the daily limit down [5] - Other sectors with significant declines included the small red book concept, commercial retail, and prepared dishes [5]. Gaining Sectors - The controllable nuclear fusion sector surged, with Tianli Composite hitting the daily limit up, along with Huazhong Cable and Xue Ren shares [5] - The wind power equipment sector rose, with Goldwind Technology hitting the daily limit up [5] - The superconducting concept also saw gains, with Yongding shares hitting the daily limit up [5] - Other sectors with notable increases included commercial aerospace and instrumentation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index opening high but closing lower, while the ChiNext Index saw a brief rise before retreating, indicating overall market volatility [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 786 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 4,400 stocks in the market declined, reflecting a broad downturn [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed resilience, with companies like Zengsheng Technology achieving a four-day consecutive rise, and over ten stocks including Sichuan Jinding and Hualing Cable hitting the daily limit [1] - The retail sector was also active, with Baida Group quickly reaching the daily limit and Dongbai Group achieving a five-day consecutive rise [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector saw some strength, with Yaxiang Integration hitting the daily limit and reaching a historical high [1] Declining Stocks - The Fujian sector saw multiple stocks weaken, with China Wuyi and Shuhua Sports hitting the daily limit down [1] Index Closing - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% [1]

12月11日，三大指数弱势震荡。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.7%，深证成指跌1.27%，创业板指跌1.41%， 北证50涨3.84%。 市场分析认为，午后北证50指数拉升的原因在于： 消息面上，根据指数编制方案，北京证券交易所和中证指数有限公司对北证指数样本股及备选名单进行 定期调整，于2025年12月15日正式生效。其中，北证50样本股名单中包括五新隧装、贝特瑞、艾融软 件、曙光数创、安达科技、锦波生物等。 而对于主要指数的调整，分析人士认为，主要有三个原因： 一是，甲骨文公司股价盘后暴跌达11.5%，加深了市场对于AI泡沫的担忧; 1、风电股震荡走强 风电股震荡走强，金风科技、东方电气、瑞风新能源等涨幅靠前。 点评：消息面上，国金证券研报指出，25Q3风电行业经营性净现金流继续改善，板块经营性净现金流 34亿元，同比增加7亿元。Q3行业存货规模继续提升，合同负债阶段性下降，预计Q4装机旺季行业需求 有望保持高增。 2、商业航天活跃 二是，美联储虽然降息，但"点阵图"维持2026年只有一次降息的预测; 三是，最近市场都在反映日本央行降息。今早，更有日本央行前官员预计，到2027年或将有四次加息。 盘面上，商业航 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index opening high but closing lower, ultimately down by 0.7% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.27%, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41% [1] - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.86 trillion, an increase of 78.6 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][5] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3873.32, down 0.70% with 395 stocks rising and 1911 falling [2] - Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13147.39, down 1.27% with 369 stocks rising and 2521 falling [2] - ChiNext Index closed at 3163.67, down 1.41% with 183 stocks rising and 1200 falling [2] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed resilience, with several stocks such as Zengsheng Technology achieving consecutive gains [2][3] - Retail concepts were also active, with stocks like Baida Group hitting the upper limit [2] - Semiconductor equipment stocks saw some strength, with Yaxiang Integration reaching a historical high [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Fujian and real estate experienced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the lower limit [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicated a total of 1032 stocks rising, 4378 stocks falling, and 38 stocks hitting the upper limit [6] - The closing performance showed a 56% limit-up rate, with 34 stocks hitting the upper limit and 27 stocks hitting the lower limit [5]

商业航天概念板块再度活跃，航天动力封板。航天晨光、中国卫星、中天火箭等个股跟涨。 ...

骑牛看熊发现次新股之前要是连续下跌，技术指标上就可能出现底背离的情况。就好像皮球一直往下落，落到一定程度就会反弹一样，次新股在技术上就有 了短期反弹的需求。到了年底，市场上的资金会寻找一些新的投资方向和热点。次新股因为上市时间短，套牢盘相对较少，盘子也比较小，更容易被资金推 动。资金大量涌入次新股，就会推动股价上涨。就像往一个小水池里快速注水，水位会迅速上升一样。例如市场上有大量资金集中流向某几只次新股，这些 次新股的股价就可能大幅上涨。 【盘面分析】 三大指数集体高开，两市开盘超3500股下跌，题材板块方面风电设备、贵金属、电池等板块表现较强，林业、渔业、体育等板块表现较差。CPO概念盘中再 度活跃，富信科技20cm涨停，赛微电子、新易盛盘中双双创历史新高，仕佳光子、光库科技等多股涨幅靠前，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新研究，高速互联 美联储年内如期3次降息，美股再度出现狂欢派对，离历史新高近在咫尺，这样的走势无疑带动全球金融市场集体大涨。反观A股完全不受外围上涨的影 响，始终是走自己的路，12月份开始进入到"跟跌不跟涨"的局面，机构资金开始选择更优赛道进行投资，"喊口号"的现象此起彼伏。A股市场进入 ...

美联储年内如期3次降息，美股再度出现狂欢派对，离历史新高近在咫尺，这样的走势无疑带动全球金融市场集体大涨。反观A股完全不受外围上涨的影 响，始终是走自己的路，12月份开始进入到"跟跌不跟涨"的局面，机构资金开始选择更优赛道进行投资，"喊口号"的现象此起彼伏。A股市场进入到新一轮 的题材效应中，大盘类个股对市场有所拖累，这里可以开始关注中小创题材热点的超跌反弹机会，60日新低的个股数量大幅度增多。 三大指数集体高开，两市开盘超3500股下跌，题材板块方面风电设备、贵金属、电池等板块表现较强，林业、渔业、体育等板块表现较差。CPO概念盘中再 度活跃，富信科技20cm涨停，赛微电子、新易盛盘中双双创历史新高，仕佳光子、光库科技等多股涨幅靠前，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新研究，高速互联 技术成为决定AI数据中心效能上限与规模化发展的关键。2025年全球800G以上的光收发模块达2400万支，2026年预估将会达到近6300万组，成长幅度高达 2.6倍。 骑牛看熊发现次新股之前要是连续下跌，技术指标上就可能出现底背离的情况。就好像皮球一直往下落，落到一定程度就会反弹一样，次新股在技术上就有 了短期反弹的需求。到 ...