Economic Overview - The U.S. trade deficit increased to $162 billion in March from $147.8 billion the previous month, significantly exceeding the estimate of -$145 billion, marking a 65% increase since October [10] - Imports rose by 5.0% to $343 billion, driven by a 27.5% increase in consumer goods, while exports increased by 1.2% to $181 billion, led by industrial supplies, autos, and food [10] - The decline in consumer confidence continued, with the Conference Board's measure dropping to 86 in April from 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive month of declines [11] Company Responses to Tariffs - Amazon faced backlash from the White House for allegedly planning to list tariff costs on products, which it denied, stating that such a consideration was never made for its main site [4][8] - Honeywell reported earnings that exceeded expectations and raised its full-year profit forecast, while acknowledging the unpredictable impact of tariffs [13] - Coca-Cola's performance reassured analysts, contrasting with many peers in the consumer staples sector [14] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Pantheon Macro economist Oliver Allen revised Q1 GDP growth expectations down to -1% due to the impact of tariffs and trade dynamics [10] - Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi indicated that consumer sentiment is nearing recession levels, with a significant drop in the index over the past three months [12] - Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson emphasized the need for tariff relief and other catalysts for sustained market growth, advocating for quality stocks with resilient earnings profiles [18] Notable Partnerships and Developments - Hims & Hers Health announced a partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell the weight loss therapy Wegovy, marking a significant development for the company amid shareholder scrutiny [17] - JetBlue is evaluating measures to boost profitability in light of macroeconomic uncertainty, including capacity reductions and cost savings [16] Earnings Guidance Adjustments - General Motors pulled its 2025 outlook and halted its share buyback program due to the impact of tariffs on its original guidance [14][15] - UPS management indicated that full-year expectations would remain if market conditions stabilize, highlighting the uncertainty stemming from recent updates from the White House and Beijing [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in new export orders in countries affected by tariffs, particularly Canada and Mexico, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1-point decline in the S&P new manufacturing export orders PMI component predicts a 0.75 percentage point hit to year-on-year export growth [2]. - The April flash PMIs indicate mixed trends in developed markets (DM), with the DM composite flash PMI falling by 1.1 points to 50.7, driven by a decline in the services component [2]. - The report notes that the Euro area composite flash PMI declined to 50.1 in April, slightly below consensus expectations, with services leading the decline [4]. Summary by Sections Global Trade Data - The report compiles a data calendar for upcoming global business surveys and trade data releases, emphasizing the importance of country-specific export data as indicators of how tariffs are reshaping global trade [2]. - Early releases of trade data have shown a correlation with US trade flows, with expectations of a pullback due to tariff implementation [2]. US Economics - The report indicates a growth slowdown, with a lowered Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6 percentage points to -0.2%, influenced by mixed signals from housing and durable goods orders [3]. - It discusses the potential impact of Canadian elections on GDP growth, with increased spending under a Liberal government expected to raise GDP levels by 0.6-0.7% over the next four years [3]. European Economics - The report notes that long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey remained at 4.4%, with consumer sentiment significantly below earlier levels [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point cut and signaled concerns about growth, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [4]. Asia/EM Economics - The report assesses the disinflationary impact of tariff-induced global supply reallocation, estimating a potential downside of 1.5% to the price level of core goods [5]. - It highlights the expected impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports and anticipates a focus on easing measures from Chinese leadership in response to economic pressures [5]. GDP Forecast Tracker - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, while the Euro area is projected at 0.7% [6]. - China’s growth is forecasted at 4.0% for 2025, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous years [6].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-04-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 4月29日 欧元区4月经济景气指数 点评：4月29日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区4月经济景气指数和工业景气指数。预期欧元区4月经济景 气指数为94.5，前值为95.2；预期欧元区4月工业景气指数为-10.7，前值为-10.6。如果欧元区4月经济景气指 数和工业景气指数均小幅低于前值，则将轻度抑制有色金属、原油及相关商品期货价格上涨，但是将轻度有助 于黄金和白银期货价格上涨。 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 4 月 29 日 22:00，美国谘商会将公布 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数。 4 月 30 日 09:30，国家统计 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, Zhuhai's GDP reached 112.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a stable economic start [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.64 billion, growing by 4.0%, while the secondary industry decreased by 0.6% to 44.94 billion, and the tertiary industry increased by 7.1% to 65.51 billion, becoming the main driver of economic growth [1] Tertiary Industry Performance - The tertiary industry's growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by significant increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (21.6%), cultural, sports, and entertainment (8.3%), and leasing and business services (7.9%) [1] - From January to February, the revenue of large-scale service industries reached 27.07 billion, up by 10.4%, with internet and related services, software and IT services, cultural, sports, and entertainment, and leasing and business services showing revenue growth of 114.5%, 32.2%, 12.3%, and 9.5% respectively [1] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhuhai for the first quarter reached 23.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Retail sales of household appliances surged by 84.7%, while automotive consumption showed weakness, with retail sales of automotive goods declining by 3.5% to 2.694 billion, accounting for 22.9% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade performance was notable, with total import and export reaching 81.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, driven by a 26.5% increase in imports and an 11.2% increase in exports [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises exceeded 3,000, marking an 8.8% increase, with significant growth in trade with the EU (21.8%), ASEAN (6.1%), and the Middle East (39.4%) [2] - Exports of electromechanical products reached 37.48 billion, growing by 13.1%, accounting for 68.6% of total exports, with notable increases in home appliances (6.4%), electronic components (18.1%), computers and parts (70.1%), and lithium batteries (122.3%) [2] Primary Industry Insights - The primary industry added value grew by 4.0%, reflecting accelerated agricultural modernization and significant achievements in marine ranching [3] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 5.1%, with fishery output accounting for nearly 80% [3] Secondary Industry Analysis - The secondary industry saw a 0.6% decline in added value, although high-tech sectors experienced growth, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% [3] - Key sectors showed varied performance: precision machinery manufacturing increased by 41.7%, electronic information by 10.1%, and petrochemical by 9.2%, while biomedicine and home appliance sectors faced declines of 11.4% and 2.3% respectively [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 40.5%, although the decline narrowed by 5.9 percentage points compared to January-February, with industrial technological transformation investment achieving a positive growth of 5.6% supported by equipment renewal policies [3]

到昨天（4月25日），全国31个省份的一季度经济运行情况全部发布。其中21个省份达到或超过GDP预 期增长目标，经济大省更是普遍超预期，表明今年全国经济开局良好。与上年同期相比，各省份的GDP 总量排名总体稳定，上海、辽宁、四川3省市的排位上升，河南、湖南、安徽、重庆、云南的排位下 降。（一财） ...

韩国一季度GDP环比初值 -0.2%，预期 0.1%，前值 0.1%。 ...

国际货币基金组织：如果由于关税导致收入和产出下降幅度超过目前的预测，到2027年，全球债务水平 可能会超过GDP的117%。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：第一季度GDP可能较2024年有所放缓，但部分提前采购以规避关税的行为或将增 加。 ...

Economic Growth - In Q1, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 5.0%[3] - Nominal GDP growth was recorded at 4.6%, consistent with Q4 of the previous year[3] - Trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to nominal GDP growth, up from 1.9 percentage points in Q4[3] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth in March rebounded to 7.7%, up from 5.9% in January-February, surpassing expectations[8] - For Q1, industrial value-added growth was 6.5%, an increase from 6.2% in December[8] - Key sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and electrical machinery maintained double-digit growth rates[8] Consumer Activity - Retail sales growth in Q1 reached 4.6%, up from 3.7% in December, driven by policies like "trade-in for new"[10] - In March, retail sales growth accelerated to 5.9%, higher than the expected 4.2%[10] - Online retail sales in March increased to 6.9%, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in Q1 was 4.2%, faster than the 3.2% recorded for the entire year of 2024[12] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.5% in Q1, with March growth rising to 12.6%[13] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10% in March, but the rate of decline improved slightly compared to earlier months[14] Employment and Risks - The urban unemployment rate in March slightly decreased to 5.2%, consistent with the previous year's level[15] - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and a downturn in the real estate cycle affecting domestic demand[5][17]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Policy Changes - The U.S. tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 125% and a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most trade partners[3] - The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes highlighted economic uncertainty due to tariff policies, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed[5] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget plan to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion over the next decade, despite concerns about fiscal sustainability[7] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - U.S. March CPI and PPI inflation rates exceeded expectations, with core CPI rising 2.8%, the lowest growth rate in four years[8] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, the second-lowest level in history, with one-year inflation expectations reaching 6.7%, the highest since 1981[10] - The GDPNow model predicts a Q1 GDP annualized rate of -2.4%, indicating potential economic contraction[11] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets showed volatility, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising 5.7%, 5.0%, and 7.3% respectively for the week, but still down 5.4%, 4.8%, and 5.0% since April 2[14] - U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 2-year yield rising 28 basis points to 3.96% and the 10-year yield up 47 basis points to 4.48%[18] - The dollar index fell 3.06% to 99.77, marking its first drop below 100 since July 2023, with the Swiss franc and euro gaining the most among non-U.S. currencies[22]