中信证券认为，"反内卷"政策强度不断升级，有望成为持续投资主线。长期看，"反内卷"需要全国统一 大市场建设，优化绩效考核机制，让中国企业实现高质量产能出海。短期看，当前"反内卷"落地政策尚 未全面出台，整体仍处于交易预期阶段，持仓相对出清的低位周期制造品种有望成为交易主线。 开源证券认为，"反内卷"行情持续发酵存在三大原因：1、"反内卷"政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。2、"反内卷"行业筹码干净，存在较 强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的"反内卷"行业，基金配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比 例，筹码出清干净。3、当前市场风险偏好高位，对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力 增强、投资者活跃度提升，以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动A股走强的核心动因。以上三点 构成了"反内卷"的三大优势，也解释了近期"反内卷"行情能持续发酵的原因。 东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场全天震荡走高，三大指数再度创出年内新高，上证指数收盘站上3600 点。盘面上，海南自贸区、稀土永磁、锂矿、超级水电等板块涨幅居前，贵金属、银行等板块跌幅居 前。市场的强势程度可见一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of Henan Province in the first half of 2023 shows a steady and positive trend, with significant growth in GDP, retail sales, and foreign trade, supported by targeted policy measures and initiatives [1][2][3] Economic Performance - The GDP of Henan Province grew by 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the national growth rate by 2.2 percentage points [1] - The total foreign trade import and export value reached 412.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.2%, outpacing the national growth of 23.3% [1] - The new international cargo routes from Zhengzhou Airport contributed to a cargo and mail throughput of 435,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.9% [1] - The China-Europe (Asia) freight trains operated 1,522 trains, marking a year-on-year growth of 56.1% [1] Policy Measures - Henan Province implemented 28 targeted policy measures early in the year, including the issuance of 350 million yuan in consumption vouchers for tourism, accommodation, and dining [2] - The province saw a significant increase in the retail sales of various consumer goods, with year-on-year growth rates of 102.7% for smartphones, 95.3% for wearable devices, 35.1% for home appliances, and 28% for new energy vehicles [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance increased by 11.8% year-on-year [2] Future Initiatives - Henan Province has developed 36 policy measures aimed at sustaining economic growth in the second half of 2023, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] - The province plans to enhance consumer spending through various initiatives, including summer consumption activities and the continuation of subsidies for replacing old consumer goods [3] - Efforts to deepen integration into the national market and expand foreign trade are underway, including the construction of logistics hubs and support for foreign trade enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Financial Committee emphasizes the need to align thoughts and actions with the important speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on economic development and high-quality growth in the second half of the year [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The meeting highlighted the importance of actively serving the construction of a unified national market and enhancing the role of the Yangtze River Delta in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call to accelerate the high-quality development of the marine economy, leveraging leading enterprises and enhancing the competitiveness of the shipping service industry [1] - The focus is on deepening the market-oriented allocation of factors, improving regulatory enforcement, and addressing "involution" competition [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting stressed the need to recognize and grasp the economic development situation, ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] - There is an emphasis on capturing major policy opportunities and concentrating efforts on implementing various policy measures effectively [2] - The importance of cultivating new growth drivers and maintaining strategic agility in niche markets was also highlighted [2] Group 3: Enhancing Economic Work Capabilities - The need to improve the ability to conduct economic work by integrating macro and micro perspectives was emphasized [2] - The meeting called for a problem-oriented approach to identify trends and opportunities from emerging issues [2] - A spirit of striving for excellence and self-pressure was encouraged to foster a proactive and enterprising atmosphere across the city [2]

冉学东 反内卷政策持续推进，金融市场反应明显，首先就是大宗商品的牛市。 大宗商品期货市场近期出现强劲的牛市，7月23日，焦煤期货主力合约继前一日夜盘触及涨停后，虽然日内打开涨 停板，但尾盘再度涨停，收涨11%；多晶硅期货主力合约盘中一度涨停，这是月内第四次触及涨停，之后回调， 收涨5.5%；焦炭也持续上涨，日盘收涨3.83%。24日，焦煤上涨了7.97%，碳酸锂上涨了7.21%、玻璃上涨了 6.87%、多晶硅上涨了5.13%，其他如纯碱、橡胶、甲醇、焦炭等的涨幅也相当可观。 而有关部门就直接把价格作为行业治理的目标之一，媒体报道，农业农村部23日召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座 谈会。农业农村部部长韩俊要求进一步完善有关政策举措，坚决防止出现生产大起大落、价格大涨大跌，切实消 除生猪产业高质量发展的深层次制约，提升生猪产业发展综合素质和竞争力。 市场监管总局近日也曝光了一批质量领域"内卷式"竞争违法行为典型案例，其共同特点是企业忽视品牌、质量、 技术竞争，为获取短期市场份额和利润，降低成本投入，以"低质"产品破坏市场公平竞争秩序。这些忽视品牌卷 价格、牺牲质量卷成本，罔顾规则卷下限的恶性竞争行为，导致产品质量整体 ...

Economic Performance - Beijing's GDP reached 25,029.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2][3] - Fixed asset investment increased by 14.1% year-on-year, while total market consumption grew by 0.9%, with service consumption rising by 4.7% [2] - The average urban unemployment rate was 4.1%, and per capita disposable income was 45,144 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.1% [3] Technological and Industrial Development - The city is focusing on strengthening basic research and key core technology breakthroughs, with 29 major technological achievements announced at the Zhongguancun Forum [2] - The value added of the information service industry, financial industry, and industrial sector grew by 11.1%, 8.1%, and 6.9% respectively, contributing a combined 87% to economic growth [2] - The first batch of 132 key laboratories in Beijing has been launched, and significant advancements in technology have been made, including the successful launch of the "North Brain No. 1" intelligent brain-machine system [4] Infrastructure and Urban Development - The remaining sections of Metro Line 17 and the southern extension of Line 6 are set to open, along with the completion of the Chengping and Jingping expressway expansion projects [7][8] - The city is actively promoting the construction of community-based childcare and elderly care facilities, with 45 such projects underway [3] - The first batch of four "Double First-Class" universities has begun construction in the Xiong'an New Area, supporting the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [5][6] Policy and Regulatory Framework - Beijing plans to deepen reforms in key areas, including the establishment of a mechanism for implementing policies that support the private economy [4][7] - The city will introduce a market access efficiency evaluation implementation plan and a new negative list for market access [7] - A comprehensive regulatory platform has been launched, with non-site inspections accounting for 67.9% of total inspections, aiming to reduce unnecessary disruptions to businesses [4][7]

光大期货金融期货日报 | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.11%，5 年 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 期主力合约跌 0.09%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.03%。中国央行开展 2148 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 3425 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | 国债 | 回笼 1277 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 加权利率上行 bp 至 1.37%，DR007 | 震荡 | | | 加权利率上行 1 bp 至 1.48%。6 月出口增速超预期，金融数据总量超预期同 | | | | 时结构持续改善，二季度 GDP 增速 5.2%，6 月经济数据保持韧性。经济保 | | | | 持韧性短期内降息预期较低，当前股债跷跷板效应明显，短期国债偏空运行。 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

招商引资是地方发展经济的重要手段，在提升营商环境、优化资源配置、促进产业发展、培育经营主 体、带动居民增收等方面发挥着至关重要的作用。招商引资过程倒逼地方政府持续提升服务效能、完善 基础设施、健全法治保障，从而系统性提升营商环境。通过精准引入外部项目与资本，能够有效优化区 域内外资金、土地、人才等资源的配置效率，使资源流向更具发展潜力的领域。同时，招商引资也是促 进产业结构优化升级的重要路径，不仅能带来增量投资，而且通过引入先进技术、前沿管理模式和成熟 市场经验赋能本地产业，加速传统产业转型升级并培育壮大新兴产业，形成更具韧性和活力的现代化产 业体系。 但一段时间以来，一些地方片面追求本地局部利益，为争夺更多投资和项目，违规实施税费、用地等各 类优惠，人为制造政策洼地，使招商引资陷入盲目无序竞争，出现招商引资乱象。这些短视行为干扰了 资本、技术、人才等要素在区域间的合理流动，显著降低了资源要素整体配置效率，阻碍了国民经济循 环畅通。这种扭曲的竞争还在一定程度上导致大量项目重复建设和产业同质化发展，引发部分行业严重 的价格内卷，企业陷入"增收不增利"的困境，抑制了企业创新投入和产业创新升级的动力，制约了全国 统 ...

Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized a shift from rapid urbanization to high-quality, inclusive development, focusing on five transformations and five areas of increased attention[22] - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the deepening of the national unified market construction and high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on eliminating "involution" competition[8][9] Fiscal Policy - The adjustment of the long-cycle assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance their role as stabilizers in the market, with total commercial insurance fund utilization reaching approximately CNY 34.9 trillion by March 2025[44][45] - The management of special bond project revenues will be strengthened to improve the efficiency of fund usage and ensure sustainable fiscal operations[46] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with June 2025 financial data showing M1 growth at 4.6% and M2 at 8.3%, indicating a recovery in liquidity and credit support for the economy[54][55] - New social financing in June 2025 reached CNY 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9%, supported mainly by government bonds and loans[54] Regional Policy - The experience from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone will be further promoted to other regions, with 77 tasks outlined for enhancing trade and investment environments[59] - The Yangtze River Delta region is collaborating to build a national unified market pilot area, focusing on optimizing the business environment and maintaining fair competition[63]

Policy Dynamics - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized a shift from rapid urbanization to high-quality, inclusive development, focusing on five transformations and five areas of increased attention[22] - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need for a unified national market and high-quality marine economic development, with a focus on eliminating "involution" competition[8][9] Fiscal Policy - The adjustment of the long-term assessment mechanism for state-owned insurance companies aims to enhance their role as stable long-term capital providers, with total insurance fund utilization reaching approximately CNY 34.9 trillion by March 2025[44][45] - The government is enhancing the management of special bond project revenues and asset management to improve the efficiency of fiscal policy implementation[46] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China continues to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with M2 growth at 8.3% and M1 growth at 4.6% in June 2025, indicating a recovery in liquidity[54] - New social financing reached CNY 4.2 trillion in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.9%, supported mainly by government bonds and loans[54] Regional Policy - The experience from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is being promoted nationwide, with 77 tasks outlined to enhance trade and investment environments across various sectors[59] - The Yangtze River Delta region is collaborating to create a unified national market, focusing on optimizing the business environment and maintaining fair competition[63] Industry Policy - Policies addressing "involution" are set to accelerate, with a focus on technological innovation and high-end development in the construction sector, as indicated by a joint initiative from 33 construction companies[5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China's domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, showcasing the resilience of the large market as a key driver for high-quality development [1][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong economic performance despite external pressures [1][3]. - The domestic market's contribution to economic growth highlights its critical role in supporting the transition to a new development paradigm [1][5]. Market Development - The establishment of a unified national market is essential for promoting high-quality development and addressing complex external challenges [1][5]. - The Southern Regional Electricity Market, which began trial operations, is the world's largest electricity market, facilitating real-time trading and optimizing resource allocation across provinces [4][5]. Policy Initiatives - The Chinese government has implemented a series of reforms to enhance market access, including the reduction of the market access negative list from 151 items in 2018 to 106 items in 2025 [6][7]. - The government aims to standardize behaviors across regions to eliminate administrative barriers and promote fair competition [7][8]. Industry Growth - The removal of regulatory barriers in the elderly care sector has led to a doubling of service institutions since 2019, reflecting the potential for growth in various industries through market liberalization [6][7]. - The logistics and transportation sectors are thriving, with over 1,200 billion yuan in trade and more than 5 billion express packages delivered, indicating robust market activity [5][6]. Open Market Strategy - China's strategy emphasizes both domestic and international market integration, aiming to leverage its vast market size for global resource allocation [8]. - The expansion of free trade zones and the Belt and Road Initiative are part of China's commitment to deepening reform and opening up to the world [8].