Report Summary 1. Hot News - On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. Starting from the trading session on December 23, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum daily opening position of 500 lots for platinum and palladium futures contracts respectively. Also, from the trading session on December 22, the minimum opening order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts is adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots [3] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistical analysis, and quality tracking of steel product exports. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has approved some general export license applications for rare earths. China strongly opposes the EU's recent investigations under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and will take necessary measures [3] - A giant undersea gold mine, the only one in China and the largest in Asia, has been discovered in the northern waters of Sanshandao, Laizhou, Shandong. The city's total proven gold reserves exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the country's total, ranking first in both reserves and production nationwide [3] - At the "2025 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry", Yang Xudong, Director of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the photovoltaic industry governance will enter a critical stage in 2026, with further capacity regulation to achieve dynamic balance. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity [3] - The US core CPI in November 2025 rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest pace since early 2021 and lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to the serious interference of the federal government shutdown in data collection [4] 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, palladium, plastic, and asphalt [5] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.42%, precious metals 33.32%, oilseeds and oils 8.49%, soft commodities 3.33%, non - ferrous metals 23.90%, coal, coke, and steel ore 10.87%, energy 2.51%, chemicals 10.29%, grains 1.27%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [5] 4. Major Asset Performance - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes for various stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly decrease of 0.31%, and an annual increase of 15.65%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have their respective performance data [7] - **Fixed - income**: The performance of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures is presented, including daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Commodity**: The performance of CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index is shown, with daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Other**: The performance of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index is given, including their daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7]

Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Insights - In 2024, Belgium has overtaken France to become Cameroon’s largest European import partner, accounting for 22.9% of Cameroon’s imports from the EU, valued at approximately $5.04 billion [2] - The total import value from the EU to Cameroon is projected to reach 1.32 trillion CFA francs (about $22.03 billion) in 2024 [2] - The decline in imports from France, particularly in refined petroleum products and lubricants, has contributed to this shift, with a notable decrease of 13.7% in these categories [2] Import Structure - The top five European import countries for Cameroon now include Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, with Italy and Spain emerging as significant players [2][3] - Italy ranks fourth with exports to Cameroon valued at 1.018 trillion CFA francs (approximately $1.69 billion), while Spain follows closely with 952 billion CFA francs (about $1.58 billion) [2] - The import structure indicates that Cameroon continues to rely heavily on the EU for essential goods, including grains, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electrical equipment, and iron and steel products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian products by the United States has led to significant disruptions in Brazil's export of fruits and other goods, with approximately 2,500 containers awaiting resolution [1] Group 1: Impact on Exports - Approximately 77,000 tons of fruits are currently waiting to be exported to the United States, which is enough to supply a large city in Brazil for a year [1] - The tariff issue has resulted in a halt to the transportation of fruits, fish, grains, and meat from Brazil, posing risks of spoilage or selling below market prices [1]

Core Insights - Giovanni Ferrero has transformed Ferrero into a global giant through significant acquisitions, particularly in the U.S. market, since taking over in 2015 [2][3] - The recent acquisition of WK Kellogg for $3.1 billion marks one of the largest transactions in the food industry over the past year and highlights Ferrero's strategic expansion beyond its core chocolate products [3][7] - Over the past decade, Ferrero has completed at least 21 acquisitions across nine countries, totaling over $13 billion, including notable brands like Fannie May and Ferrara Candy Company [3][8] Company Performance - Ferrero's revenue has nearly doubled from 2015 to the fiscal year ending August 2024, reaching $20.4 billion, with EBITDA increasing from $1.6 billion to $3 billion [7][8] - The acquisition of WK Kellogg is expected to contribute to a sales growth of over 10%, with WK Kellogg projected to generate $2.7 billion in revenue in 2024 [8][9] Strategic Expansion - The acquisition strategy initiated by Giovanni Ferrero has diversified the company's portfolio beyond chocolate, integrating local U.S. brands with Ferrero's global offerings [7][9] - The company aims for a 7.33% annual growth rate to double its size within ten years, a target that appears achievable given the 84% revenue growth from 2017 to 2024 [12][13] Market Position - The acquisition of WK Kellogg positions Ferrero to enhance its presence in the North American cereal market, which has an annual retail value of $12 billion [12][15] - Following the acquisition, Ferrero's revenue is expected to surpass that of Mars' snack business, which is projected to reach $21.3 billion in 2024 [12][15] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces potential challenges from U.S. tariff policies and rising raw material costs, particularly cocoa, which has reached historical highs [15][16] - Ferrero is actively working to diversify its supply chain for key ingredients, including hazelnuts, which are crucial for its flagship products [16]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of WK Kellogg by Ferrero for approximately $3 billion marks a significant shift in the food industry, indicating a new round of restructuring and strategic expansion for Ferrero into the breakfast cereal market [3][5][13]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Ferrero is set to acquire WK Kellogg, which includes popular cereal brands like Froot Loops and Frosted Flakes, with the deal expected to close soon [3][6]. - This acquisition follows Mars' $35.9 billion purchase of Kellogg's snack business, indicating a trend of major players consolidating their positions in the food sector [5][7]. - WK Kellogg's estimated net sales are around $2.7 billion, while Kellanova, the new entity formed from Kellogg's split, is projected to have net sales of $13.4-13.6 billion [7][9]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - Ferrero's acquisition aims to diversify its business amid rising cocoa prices and declining chocolate sales, as the average retail price of chocolate products in the U.S. increased by 11.6% in 2023 [10][21]. - The acquisition provides Ferrero with access to WK Kellogg's established distribution channels in North America, enhancing its market presence [10][13]. - The move is part of Ferrero's long-term strategy to expand its product offerings beyond chocolate, as evidenced by previous acquisitions in various categories, including ice cream and healthy snacks [11][15][21]. Group 3: Market Context - WK Kellogg has faced challenges due to changing consumer preferences, with a decline in organic net sales of 5.6% year-over-year in Q1 2025, highlighting the need for innovation in response to market trends [13][24]. - Ferrero's strategy of continuous expansion and diversification reflects an adaptive approach to evolving consumer demands, positioning the company as a resilient player in the competitive food landscape [25][21]. - The acquisition is seen as a "mutual rescue," providing WK Kellogg with a lifeline while allowing Ferrero to solidify its footprint in the breakfast segment [23][24].