Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Insights - In 2024, Belgium has overtaken France to become Cameroon’s largest European import partner, accounting for 22.9% of Cameroon’s imports from the EU, valued at approximately $5.04 billion [2] - The total import value from the EU to Cameroon is projected to reach 1.32 trillion CFA francs (about $22.03 billion) in 2024 [2] - The decline in imports from France, particularly in refined petroleum products and lubricants, has contributed to this shift, with a notable decrease of 13.7% in these categories [2] Import Structure - The top five European import countries for Cameroon now include Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, with Italy and Spain emerging as significant players [2][3] - Italy ranks fourth with exports to Cameroon valued at 1.018 trillion CFA francs (approximately $1.69 billion), while Spain follows closely with 952 billion CFA francs (about $1.58 billion) [2] - The import structure indicates that Cameroon continues to rely heavily on the EU for essential goods, including grains, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electrical equipment, and iron and steel products [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on Brazilian products by the United States has led to significant disruptions in Brazil's export of fruits and other goods, with approximately 2,500 containers awaiting resolution [1] Group 1: Impact on Exports - Approximately 77,000 tons of fruits are currently waiting to be exported to the United States, which is enough to supply a large city in Brazil for a year [1] - The tariff issue has resulted in a halt to the transportation of fruits, fish, grains, and meat from Brazil, posing risks of spoilage or selling below market prices [1]

Core Insights - Giovanni Ferrero has transformed Ferrero into a global giant through significant acquisitions, particularly in the U.S. market, since taking over in 2015 [2][3] - The recent acquisition of WK Kellogg for $3.1 billion marks one of the largest transactions in the food industry over the past year and highlights Ferrero's strategic expansion beyond its core chocolate products [3][7] - Over the past decade, Ferrero has completed at least 21 acquisitions across nine countries, totaling over $13 billion, including notable brands like Fannie May and Ferrara Candy Company [3][8] Company Performance - Ferrero's revenue has nearly doubled from 2015 to the fiscal year ending August 2024, reaching $20.4 billion, with EBITDA increasing from $1.6 billion to $3 billion [7][8] - The acquisition of WK Kellogg is expected to contribute to a sales growth of over 10%, with WK Kellogg projected to generate $2.7 billion in revenue in 2024 [8][9] Strategic Expansion - The acquisition strategy initiated by Giovanni Ferrero has diversified the company's portfolio beyond chocolate, integrating local U.S. brands with Ferrero's global offerings [7][9] - The company aims for a 7.33% annual growth rate to double its size within ten years, a target that appears achievable given the 84% revenue growth from 2017 to 2024 [12][13] Market Position - The acquisition of WK Kellogg positions Ferrero to enhance its presence in the North American cereal market, which has an annual retail value of $12 billion [12][15] - Following the acquisition, Ferrero's revenue is expected to surpass that of Mars' snack business, which is projected to reach $21.3 billion in 2024 [12][15] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces potential challenges from U.S. tariff policies and rising raw material costs, particularly cocoa, which has reached historical highs [15][16] - Ferrero is actively working to diversify its supply chain for key ingredients, including hazelnuts, which are crucial for its flagship products [16]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of WK Kellogg by Ferrero for approximately $3 billion marks a significant shift in the food industry, indicating a new round of restructuring and strategic expansion for Ferrero into the breakfast cereal market [3][5][13]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Ferrero is set to acquire WK Kellogg, which includes popular cereal brands like Froot Loops and Frosted Flakes, with the deal expected to close soon [3][6]. - This acquisition follows Mars' $35.9 billion purchase of Kellogg's snack business, indicating a trend of major players consolidating their positions in the food sector [5][7]. - WK Kellogg's estimated net sales are around $2.7 billion, while Kellanova, the new entity formed from Kellogg's split, is projected to have net sales of $13.4-13.6 billion [7][9]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - Ferrero's acquisition aims to diversify its business amid rising cocoa prices and declining chocolate sales, as the average retail price of chocolate products in the U.S. increased by 11.6% in 2023 [10][21]. - The acquisition provides Ferrero with access to WK Kellogg's established distribution channels in North America, enhancing its market presence [10][13]. - The move is part of Ferrero's long-term strategy to expand its product offerings beyond chocolate, as evidenced by previous acquisitions in various categories, including ice cream and healthy snacks [11][15][21]. Group 3: Market Context - WK Kellogg has faced challenges due to changing consumer preferences, with a decline in organic net sales of 5.6% year-over-year in Q1 2025, highlighting the need for innovation in response to market trends [13][24]. - Ferrero's strategy of continuous expansion and diversification reflects an adaptive approach to evolving consumer demands, positioning the company as a resilient player in the competitive food landscape [25][21]. - The acquisition is seen as a "mutual rescue," providing WK Kellogg with a lifeline while allowing Ferrero to solidify its footprint in the breakfast segment [23][24].