特朗普政府拟发紧急状态声明 为向巴西征税提供法律依据 （IEEPA）为基础对部分国家实施"对等关税"，理由是这些国家对美存在"大而持续的贸易顺差"。截至 目前，所有遭征10%以上关税的国家均对美有货物顺差，唯一的例外便是巴西。 金十数据7月25日讯，据知情人士透露，特朗普政府正准备发布一项新的紧急状态声明，为对巴西加征 关税提供法律依据。此举意在为特朗普先前威胁的对巴西商品征收高达50%的关税铺路。知情人士称， 美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）本周在与国会幕僚的会谈中，承认正在筹备一份单独的紧急声明。不同 于其他贸易顺差国，巴西目前对美货物贸易为逆差。此前特朗普以《国际紧急经济权力法案》 ...

Global Market Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. is implementing a "reciprocal tariff" mechanism, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on various countries' goods, leading to significant market volatility and adjustments in policy timelines [1][2][3] - The U.S. has postponed the implementation of these tariffs from July 9 to August 1, allowing for further negotiations with multiple countries [1][2] U.S.-Japan Agreement - The U.S. and Japan have reached a "reciprocal tariff" agreement, reducing tariffs to 15% in exchange for a commitment of $550 billion in investments from Japan [2][4] - This agreement marks a significant bilateral trade model, suggesting that similar concessions may be required from other countries to receive the same tariff rate [2][4] U.S.-EU Negotiations - U.S.-EU negotiations are in advanced stages, with a potential 30% tariff threat still looming [3][5] - The U.S. has sent letters to the EU, indicating a push for a 15% baseline tariff, while the EU's automotive sector faces significant pressure due to its dual role as both a major importer and exporter of vehicles to the U.S. [5][15] Tariff Structure - The report outlines a tiered tariff structure based on trade relationships, with three main levels: 1. Countries with trade deficits and small allies (approx. 10% tariff) 2. Surplus countries with strategic value (initial tariff range of 15%-35%) 3. Low-income surplus countries with high-risk of transshipment (initial tariff range of 35%-40%) [8][11][13] - The EU is identified as facing unique challenges due to its complex trade relationship with the U.S., particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [15][27] China and Other Special Cases - China remains a focal point in the tariff discussions, with ongoing negotiations centered around non-tariff barriers and a 90-day freeze on new tariffs until August 12 [21][26] - Other countries like Mexico and Canada are under pressure due to their integration in the USMCA framework, with potential tariffs of 30% and 35% respectively if agreements are not reached by the deadline [29][28] Market Reactions - The market's response to the tariff announcements has been less severe than anticipated, with investors having already priced in extreme scenarios [32][41] - The report suggests that the market is adapting to a pattern of negotiation where initial threats are followed by adjustments, leading to a more stable outlook for key economies [36][39]

最近，美国总统特朗普宣布与日本、菲律宾和印尼达成的贸易协议引起了广泛关注。尤其对于菲律宾来说，这项协议中的一些细节让他们感到不满。尽管菲 律宾总统马科斯亲自访问华盛顿，与特朗普进行了面对面的交流，试图为菲律宾争取更有利的条件，但菲律宾的关税税率依然比日本高出4个百分点。这种 现象令菲律宾政府和民众感到沮丧，同时也导致了对特朗普是否会作出调整的渴望。 菲律宾驻美国大使罗穆亚尔德斯对此发表了看法，他表示菲律宾计划在8月1日之前继续争取将美国对菲律宾的关税从19%降低至15%。他认为，关税税率还 有进一步下降的空间，时间也非常充裕，因此菲律宾可以与美国进行充分的谈判。然而，这种期望似乎有些不切实际。毕竟，特朗普的商人背景以及他在现 实利益面前的立场，让人对他会做出让步的可能性持怀疑态度。除非菲律宾能够如中国般展现出强大的经济实力，以使特朗普政府感到压迫，否则要想改变 目前的税率几乎不可能。 菲律宾并不具备与中国相媲美的强大经济实力，因此罗穆亚尔德斯希望与美国讨论进一步降低税率的做法，有些显得孤芳自赏。他真正背后的意图或许是为 马科斯政府的表现开脱，以免在国内遭到民众的指责和攻击。可以看到，马科斯为了争取低税率，在特 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-25 欧央行维持利率不变，观望美欧贸易谈判进展 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。7月24日， 中欧峰会就进一步深化中欧关系达成重要共识。中国央行7月25日将开展4000亿元MLF操作，本月有3000亿MLF到 期，7月央行MLF净投放达到1000亿，为连续第五个月加量续作。 "反内卷"交易的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召 开钢铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温， 部分商品价格回 ...

Core Points - The United States and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces the proposed 25% tariffs to 15% and opens Japanese markets to various U.S. products, including cars and agricultural goods [1][2] - Japan is set to invest $550 billion in the U.S. to rebuild and expand core industries, with 90% of the investment profits allocated to the U.S. [1][4] - The agreement includes Japan's commitment to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft and increase U.S. rice imports by 75%, along with an additional $8 billion in U.S. agricultural products [1][4] Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The new 15% tariff is expected to take effect around August 1, according to Japan's chief trade negotiator [2] - Japan's total tariff on imported cars will decrease from 27.5% to 15%, with no quantity limits under the new rate [3] Investment Commitments - The $550 billion investment figure includes contributions from state financial institutions and is not a direct fiscal expenditure, requiring active participation from companies to utilize [4] - The profit distribution from investments is set at 90% for the U.S. and 10% for Japan, but specific project allocations may vary [4] Agricultural Imports - Japan plans to increase U.S. rice imports without setting fixed quotas, emphasizing that total rice import volumes will not increase [4] - The U.S. claims Japan will immediately increase rice imports by 75%, but Japan's agriculture minister stated that procurement decisions will remain autonomous [4] Defense Spending - The agreement reportedly includes a commitment for Japan to purchase additional U.S. military equipment, although this aspect is contested by Japanese officials who claim existing plans cover these needs [5][6] - There is a discrepancy in the interpretation of defense spending commitments, with Japan's negotiators including planned expenditures in the agreement to enhance perceived investment figures [6] Future Steps - Japan's Prime Minister indicated there are currently no plans to sign a formal written agreement, and both sides are expected to release a summary of their consensus soon [7][8] - The U.S. is expected to take administrative actions to implement the new tariffs, while Japan will consider its next steps accordingly [8]

Group 1 - The South Korean government plans to use a more than $100 billion investment plan by Korean companies in the U.S. as leverage in trade negotiations, with potential for further increases in investment amounts [1] - The investment commitments from major companies such as Samsung, SK, Hyundai, and LG have already reached over $100 billion, and this figure may rise if the government employs policy financing methods [1] - Japan's recent agreement with the U.S. to lower tariffs has put pressure on South Korea, which may face a loss of competitiveness in the global automotive market if a similar agreement is not reached [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump stated that he will not set the "reciprocal tariff" rate below 15% before the August 1 deadline, indicating a range of tariffs between 15% and 50% [2]

新华财经北京7月24日电美国总统特朗普23日在公开讲话中表示，将在15%至50%的税率范围内对美国贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，针对某一国的具体税 率将取决于美方如何评估与该国的关系。媒体分析认为，这表明随着谈判期限迫近，特朗普政府倾向于采取分层策略，以推动更多国家尽快与美方签订协 议。 从美国近期与日本达成的协议来看，美方为达成协议作出不少让步，针对特定商品的关税下调幅度超出预期。同时，欧盟等贸易伙伴转而对与美谈判采取更 强硬的立场。 特朗普22日还称与到访的菲律宾总统马科斯达成贸易协议。特朗普表示，菲律宾将对美国开放市场并实施零关税，而美国将对菲律宾进口商品征收19%的关 税。特朗普本月早些时候曾致信马科斯，称将从8月1日起将菲律宾输美产品关税从4月初宣布的17%上调至20%。 7月15日，美国总统特朗普在华盛顿白宫回答记者提问。新华社记者胡友松摄 也有媒体认为，随着8月1日"对等关税"暂缓期截止日迫近，美方更倾向于以直接告知他国的方式，施行"分层的"关税税率，即被视作配合度高的国家适用较 低税率，被认定为不合作的国家则相反。 彭博社说，特朗普近期常在对方国家尚未表态前，在社交媒体上发布致一些国家领导人的 ...

Group 1 - Germany and France are leading a coalition of EU member states demanding retaliatory measures against US tariffs unless concessions are made by the US [1] - The EU's stance has become increasingly aggressive as the August 1 trade agreement deadline approaches, with Germany shifting from negotiation to a more confrontational approach [1] - The US currently imposes a 25% tariff on imported cars from the EU and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - Support for initiating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) has been garnered from over six European capitals, including Germany and France, although some member states remain cautious [2] - The likelihood of achieving a 10% "reciprocal tariff" is very low, and exemptions for the EU's automotive and steel tariffs are also difficult to realize [2] - The EU has proposed multiple counter-tariff plans, including a package that would impose tariffs on $21 billion worth of US imports starting August 6 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement of a significant trade agreement between the United States and Japan, which includes commitments from Japan to purchase 100 Boeing aircraft, increase U.S. rice imports by 75%, and procure $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products and military equipment [1][5] - The agreement is described as a "historic" deal that strengthens U.S.-Japan relations, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in revitalizing key U.S. industries, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs [1][2] - The U.S. will retain 90% of investment profits from this agreement, ensuring that American workers, taxpayers, and communities benefit significantly [2] Group 2 - In the agricultural sector, Japan will immediately increase its imports of U.S. rice by 75% and expand import quotas, while also committing to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. products including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel [5] - The energy sector will see a substantial increase in U.S. energy exports to Japan, with new long-term procurement agreements for Alaskan liquefied natural gas (LNG) being established [5] - In manufacturing and aerospace, Japan has agreed to purchase 100 commercial aircraft from U.S. manufacturers and will increase its procurement of U.S. defense equipment by several billion dollars annually [5] Group 3 - The agreement will eliminate long-standing restrictions on U.S. automobiles and trucks entering the Japanese market, with U.S. automotive standards being recognized for the first time in Japan [5][7] - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on Japanese-made cars from 27.5% to 15%, with no quantity limits under the new tax rate [7] - Concerns have been raised by the U.S. automotive industry regarding the potential negative impact of the agreement on American manufacturers, particularly if tariffs on Japanese imports are lower than those on North American-made vehicles [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is hastening trade negotiations with multiple countries as the August 1 deadline for new tariffs approaches, but substantial agreements remain elusive [1][11]. Trade Agreements - President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia, but these agreements lack critical details and have not been formally signed [2][6][8]. - The U.S. and Japan reached what Trump described as the largest trade agreement in history, reducing the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its agricultural market [3][4]. - The agreement with the Philippines involves the U.S. imposing a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines while the Philippines opens its market to U.S. goods with zero tariffs [6]. - Indonesia's agreement reportedly includes a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports to the U.S., but confirmation from Indonesian leadership on the specifics is lacking [8]. - Vietnam is still negotiating to further reduce tariff rates, indicating that agreements are not yet finalized [9]. Impact on Other Countries - The U.S. has pressured Vietnam and Indonesia to reach agreements, but the details remain vague and unsatisfactory to some parties [7][10]. - The U.K. was the first country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. since the trade war began, but the agreement has been criticized for lacking substance [10]. European Union Response - The EU is considering countermeasures against the U.S. if trade negotiations fail, with potential tariffs on $720 billion worth of U.S. imports [12]. - Germany emphasizes the need for a fair and reliable agreement with the U.S. to avoid significant losses [13]. Economic Effects - The U.S. is experiencing rising consumer prices due to tariffs, with an effective tariff rate of 20.6%, the highest since 1910, leading to projected losses of $2,800 per household by 2025 [16]. - The inflationary impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with rising prices in consumer goods, particularly in furniture and clothing [16].