中信证券首席经济学家分析师明明表示，年内人民币有望偏强运行，考虑到年底结汇的季节性效应，不 排除阶段性突破7.0。进入2026年，预计美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或将延续，为人民币汇率构成相对友 好的外部环境。同时央行稳汇率政策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率韧性。在此背景下，人民币汇率有望温 和升值。 ...

12月10日盘中，在岸人民币对美元汇率持续上涨，逼近7.06元关口，创2024年10月10日以来新高。Wind 数据显示，截至14:45，在岸人民币对美元汇率报7.0613元，较前收盘价上涨80个基点，盘中最高报 7.0605元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，11月下旬以来，美元指数走软叠加央行中间价报价释放的引导信号， 人民币汇率逐步升至年内新高并实现"三价合一"。展望后市，短期来看，市场对于美联储12月的降息预 期已充分定价，国内政策对经济的提振效果有待显现，预计年内人民币有望偏强运行。 离岸人民币对美元汇率再次升破7.06元关口。Wind数据显示，截至14:45，离岸人民币对美元汇率报 7.0583元，较前收盘价上涨19个基点，盘中最高报7.0571元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show a strong trend, with government bond futures rising across the board and a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a stable liquidity expectation as the year-end approaches [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.30% at 112.79, the 10-year main contract up 0.06% at 108.03, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.825, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.456 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down 0.75 basis points to 1.908%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down 0.65 basis points to 2.247% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.615% and the 10-year yield up 2.35 basis points to 4.188% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 1.954% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also decreased, with French yields down 2.8 basis points to 3.553% and German yields down 1.2 basis points to 2.847% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,898 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.298%, marking a new low since August 2023 [6]. Institutional Insights - Xingsheng Fixed Income suggests that the yields on various levels of perpetual bonds are still at relatively low levels compared to 2021, indicating potential investment opportunities in certain regional bonds [7]. - CITIC Securities notes a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which may impact export growth negatively while encouraging imports, particularly affecting industries sensitive to currency fluctuations [8]. - Huatai Securities anticipates a "super week" for central banks, with potential policy divergence expected, indicating a shift in global monetary policy dynamics [8].

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.09% as of December 10, 2025, with a trading volume of 688 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.27% [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 30.391 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 8.358 billion yuan over the past year [1] - The bond market showed signs of recovery on December 9, with the main contract for 30-year government bonds rising by 0.45% [1] Group 2 - Since late November, the weakening of the US dollar index and the central bank's guidance have contributed to the appreciation of the RMB, reaching a new high for the year and achieving a "three-price unity" [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which includes publicly issued and tradable 30-year government bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years [2]

中国经济网北京12月10日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0753，较前一交易日调升20个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月10日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0753元，1欧元对人民币8.2258元，100日元对人民币4.5096元，1港元对人民币0.90928 元，1英镑对人民币9.4107元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6973元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0877元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4550元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7759元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1093元，人民币1元对1.1335 澳门元，人民币1元对0.58179马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对10.9316俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4103南 非兰特，人民币1元对207.86韩元，人民币1元对0.51918阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53049沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.6505匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51404波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9080丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3231瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4346挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.01 ...

Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Morgan Fund has lifted the QDII limit, allowing multiple funds to accept subscriptions up to 100,000 yuan in a single day, with potential total purchases reaching 200,000 yuan for certain combinations [1] - The funds cover a wide range of investment directions, including U.S. stocks, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, Europe, Japan, resource products, and global multi-asset allocation [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Insights - The RMB has been appreciating since May, with increasing attention from investors [2] - Domestic institutions are generally optimistic, predicting the RMB could break 7 and even reach 6.8 by the end of next year, while foreign institutions have mixed views, with some predicting a range between 6.7 and 7.05 [4][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, which has declined by 12.5% from its peak earlier this year [7] - Strong corporate foreign exchange settlement intentions are a major driving force behind the RMB's appreciation, with a record settlement of 51 billion USD in May [8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the stock market, as previous bull markets have coincided with RMB appreciation [11] - Recent market sentiment has been mixed, with a notable increase in financing data indicating investor willingness to enter the market if conditions improve [13] - The technology sector has shown resilience, with specific indices reaching historical highs, while other sectors like liquor have faced significant declines [15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous growth of China's foreign exchange reserves indicates a stable status in international balance of payments, cross-border capital flows, exchange rates, and asset price changes, providing a strategic buffer for the country against external shocks and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 33,464 billion USD, marking a month-on-month increase of 30 million USD or 0.09%, and achieving the highest level since December 2015 [3]. - The sustained stability of foreign reserves suggests that China maintains a robust position in international payments and capital flows, with expectations for continued stability at high levels [3][7]. - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [3][8]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The global currency market has seen a trend of a weakening US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.29% to 99.4 in November, while major non-USD currencies have shown mixed performance [6][8]. - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, surpassing 7.09 against the USD, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 3,500 basis points since its low in April [6]. - Analysts predict that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable or slightly stronger in December, with expectations of fluctuations within the range of 7.05 to 7.1 [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's economy remains stable and progressing, supporting the future stability of foreign exchange reserves [7]. - China's commitment to a market-oriented exchange rate mechanism and ongoing financial market opening will attract foreign investment, contributing to stable foreign capital inflows [7]. - The strong manufacturing sector and complete supply chain in China are expected to ensure a continued trade surplus, further supporting foreign exchange inflows [7].

Core Insights - In November, both offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated against the USD, with the average daily price difference (absolute value of CNY-CNH) decreasing by 4 basis points to 48 basis points [1][3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the indices referencing the BIS and SDR currency baskets increased by 0.32%, 0.58%, and 0.22% respectively compared to the end of the previous month [1][3] - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds increased significantly, with 123 bonds issued totaling 2146.27 billion RMB, a rise of 192.28% from the previous month [5] Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - As of November 28, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.0713, appreciating by 0.72% from the end of the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.0794, appreciating by 0.48% [3] - The average daily price difference between CNY and CNH was recorded at 48 basis points, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous month [3] Offshore RMB Bond Market - The offshore RMB bond market saw an increase in issuance, with 123 bonds issued in November, up by 46 from the previous month, and the total issuance amount reaching 2146.27 billion RMB [5] Offshore RMB Money Market - By the end of November, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods were 1.0415%, 1.5806%, 1.7921%, and 1.9554% respectively, with the overnight rate decreasing by 20 basis points [6] - The average interest rate differentials between offshore and onshore borrowing rates showed mixed trends, with some periods experiencing slight decreases and others increases [6] Offshore RMB Derivatives Market - The 1-year CNH swap points were recorded at -1351 basis points, an increase of 98 basis points from the previous month, while the CNY 1-year swap points decreased by 9 basis points to -1296 basis points [4] - The trading volume for USD/CNH futures contracts on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased by 9.3% to 1.899 million contracts, while the trading volume for options contracts decreased significantly by 82.6% [4] Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of November, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 242, an increase of 3 from the previous month [7] - The total transaction volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 25277.30 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 8.9% [8]

12月9日，人民币兑美元中间价下调9个基点，报7.0773。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月9日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.0773元，1欧元对人民币8.2372元，100日元对人民币4.5391元，1港元对人民币0.90981元，1 英镑对人民币9.4298元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6880元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0869元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.4532元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7713元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1092元，人民币1元对1.1321澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58157马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对10.8475俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4081南非兰 特，人民币1元对207.81韩元，人民币1元对0.51908阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53041沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.6938匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51453波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9068丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3277瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4307挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.01279土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5813墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.51 ...

新华社北京12月9日电 中国外汇交易中心12月9日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里 亚尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 12月9日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 707.73人民币 100欧元 823.72人民币 100日元 4.5391人民币 100港元 90.981人民币 100英镑 942.98人民币 100澳元 468.8人民币 100新西兰元 408.69人民币 100新加坡元 545.32人民币 100瑞士法郎 877.13人民币 100加元 510.92人民币 100人民币113.21澳门元 100人民币58.157马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1084.75俄罗斯卢布 100人民币240.81南非兰特 100人民币20781韩元 100人民币51.908阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币53.041沙特里亚尔 100人民币4669.38匈牙利福林 100人民币51.453波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.68丹麦克朗 100 ...