Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The actual impact of OPEC+ production increase and the updated over - production compensation plan remains to be seen. The probability of OPEC+ unitedly cutting production to support prices at the current oil price level is lower than before. The demand side may focus on the market's expectation of the US debt scale, and a halt in US debt growth may affect crude oil demand. Geopolitical factors are trending towards缓和 but still require sensitivity to emergencies. In a macro - pressured situation, the probability of new geopolitical information is higher. The short - term rebound of oil prices is facing resistance, and the medium - term weak pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to sell high in the medium term and try to place short positions or bearish positions near the pressure level in the short term, and consider placing out - of - the - money put options due to the approaching holiday in China [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, the Sc crude oil futures price was 496.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.55% from the previous day and 1.10% from the previous week; WTI was 63.17 dollars/barrel, up 0.64% from the previous day; Brent was 66.91 dollars/barrel, up 0.62% from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Sc - WTI spread was 5.67 dollars/barrel, up 0.09% from the previous day; the Sc - Brent spread was 1.93 dollars/barrel, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Brent - WTI spread was 3.74 dollars/barrel, up 93.32% from the previous day [2] - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was 68.83 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% from the previous week; Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.13% from the previous week; Oman was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; Dubai was 67.45 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.45% from the previous week; ESPO was 63.99 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and up 2.55% from the previous week [2] - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was 6680.09 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day and down 0.64% from the previous week; gasoline in East China was 7888.91 yuan/ton, down 0.00% from the previous day and down 0.59% from the previous week [2] 3.2 Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory**: The US strategic petroleum reserve was 397.48 million barrels, up 0.12% from the previous week; commercial crude oil was 443.10 million barrels, up 0.06% from the previous week; Cushing crude oil was 25.02 million barrels, down 0.34% from the previous week; gasoline was 229.54 million barrels, down 1.91% from the previous week; distillates were 106.88 million barrels, down 2.15% from the previous week [2] - **Position**: The non - commercial net position of CFTC was 17.10 million contracts, up 16.80% from the previous week; the commercial net position was - 17.39 million contracts, down 13.12% from the previous week; the non - report net position was 0.29 million contracts, down 60.11% from the previous week [2] 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US would not expand sanctions on Russia to avoid interfering with the peace process in the Ukraine conflict, but Trump proposed possible financial or secondary sanctions on Putin. Russia and Ukraine are closer to a peace agreement. The Iran's Abbas Port explosion injured 195 people, and the explosion did not affect energy facilities. The US - Iran talks will continue next week, and a high - level meeting is tentatively scheduled for May 3. Trump said he would not cancel tariffs on China unless China made substantial concessions, while China emphasized that the US should correct its mistakes and cancel all unilateral tariffs [3][5] 3.4 Market and Macro News - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 58.6%. European Central Bank policymakers are more confident about a rate cut in June due to continuous inflation decline. The impact of US tariff policies will start to show nationwide at the end of next month, and it will have a greater impact on low - income Americans. Crude oil futures have rebounded strongly from the trough earlier this month, but in euro terms, Brent oil futures have fallen 11% this year, and European buyers' actual oil purchase cost has dropped more significantly, which may boost oil demand marginally [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding propylene profitability and the expected tightening of supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipated reduction in operating rates for PDH units due to high costs associated with U.S. propane imports, which could lead to a significant drop in propylene supply [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential for increased imports from Japan and South Korea, although these may not fully compensate for the domestic supply gap [4][5]. - The report suggests that the overall profitability of PDH units remains low, and future tariffs could delay or cancel planned new capacity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous week, while WTI prices fell by 2.57% to $63.02 per barrel [4][22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 244,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 4.476 million barrels [25][22]. - The report notes a stable day rate for self-elevating drilling rigs, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin rising to $10.75 per barrel [4][22]. - The profitability of domestic refining products is expected to improve gradually as economic recovery progresses [4][22]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while polyester filament profitability has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [4][22]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see improvements in the medium to long term as new capacity comes online [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][17]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the expected improvements in the industry [4][17].

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...